Saturday we’re back with another 3 game slate from the CS Summit 7. Games still start at 8:00 am EST, and they are:

VP (68% implied win probability) vs NiP

Fnatic (65%) vs Cloud 9

Heroic (61%) vs OG

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

None of these teams sub , and the player pool appears correct for all of the teams.

Slate Analysis

Pricing has mostly tightened up after a couple days of being super loose, for the favorites at least. All 3 underdogs are still dirt cheap, even cheaper than the odds dictate. This leaves you with two options when building lineups. Either play a bottom fragger from a favorite, Sanji, Golden, Jackinho, and Borup are all dirt cheap, or play an underdog, likely an underdog stack. Normally these are all players that I’d try to avoid (with the possible exception of Jackinho, more on that in a minute). However, Sanji, Borup, and Golden are all so cheap that I don’t mind using any of them in this spot. Of course, I’ll only use them as part of stacks, likely only in 3 stacks, but they’re so cheap that getting 50 points in a sweep could actually be worth it. Of course, this is also predicated on all 3 favorites winning. If an underdog wins their presumably higher raw scores plus low salaries will likely lead to a lineup with all top fraggers winning, however, based on the odds there’s about a 27% chance all the favorites win. That’s a decent chance, and if that’s the case I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of the bottom fraggers end up in the winning lineup.

Now, I mentioned Jackinho as someone who I might not mind playing in general. First, I do want to mention that his projections need to be taken with a grain of salt. He has incredibly limited career stats, and most of the stats that do exist come from domestic tournaments that his teams dominated. That said, after struggling a little bit as OG crushed Complexity in his first real pro match, he played well against OG, going positive on 2 maps and ending the day -2 in K-D. I don’t think it’s unreasonable that he could become a reliable fantasy scorer for Fnatic. While I like his long term prospects, his ownership tomorrow is likely to be thru the roof. I’m not super keen on playing him if he’s 30+ percent owned, which isn’t outside of the realm of possibilities given his inflated projections and the tighter pricing. I won’t shy away from playing him, but I won’t go out of my way to either.

For the underdogs, I expect ownership to go C9 > OG > NiP, although Valde and Mantuu may have higher individual ownership than anyone on C9 as I expect it to be more spread out on C9. Given that they all have fairly similar win probabilities and pricing, I’m simply going to play the opposite of the ownership. That NiP will be my most used underdog. After getting absolutely crushed by VP a couple days ago, their ownership should be virtually non-existant. Rez and Nawwk are my favorite plays, but Hampus and to a lesser extent Plopski will also be in my lineups. From C9, I’ll have some of everyone. I’ll have the least Xeppaa, as like I mentioned last time, his stats are still somewhat inflated from playing against T4 teams in NA. Anyone can top frag any given day/map, so I don’t really have any must plays on this team. From OG, it’s Valde and Mantuu for me, mixed in with some Issaa in 3 stacks.

Top Captains

While I’m going to be running plenty of underdogs in my lineups, NiP and C9 spread their scoring out so much that it’s hard to want to target any of them at captain. With niko falling off, Heroic doesn’t spread their kills out quite as much as they used to, making Stavn and Cadian two of my favorite captains on the slate.

From Fnatic, Brollan is so expensive that I doubt he’ll have much captain ownership, which makes him a strong GPP play. Krimz is also a perfectly viable captain.

VP’s pricing is a little weird, as for some reason Buster is on top. I have a little bit of interest in him at captain, but I’m more interested in Jame and Yekindar, I’ll have plenty of both of them.

Paying up at captain is my preferred route on this slate, I doubt I’ll have much if any of the 3rd-5th fraggers on any of the favorites.

Valde is worth a look if you need to save some cash, and Rez and Nawwk are also worth a look if you want to go with a lineup construction that requires a cheap captain.

That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!

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