Draftkings is evidently not interested in combining the Dreamhack Open with CS Summit, as we have another day with just games from the Summit. This leaves us with a 3 game slate that again locks at 8:00 am EST. All 3 matchups just so happened to work out to be rematches from opening day. They are:
OG (69% implied win probability) vs Dignitas
Heroic (78%) vs MiBR
Furia (56%) vs Cloud 9
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub (yet), and the player pool appears correct for all of the teams.
This is an interesting slate in that they are all rematches from just a couple of days ago. OG has gone from an 87% favorite down to 69% (nice) after getting thoroughly trounced on Train despite hanging on to win the series. Heroic have dropped a little bit, from 85% to 78% after sweeping but MiBR looking better than expected (plus they have now beat Faze as well). Furia have dropped from a 69% favorite to 56% after a hard fought 3 map win.
OG looked laughably bad on Train against Dig last time out, losing 16-3 despite starting on CT, and only slightly better against Fnatic (they lost 16-9). Their defense is chalk full of gaps and they constantly get shot in the back or side without ever firing a shot. The question becomes, can they ban Train? They should, but their permaban is currently Vertigo, which who knows, they could be even worse on. I think Dig will get to pick Train again, and I therefore expect this series to go all 3 maps again. That said, Mantuu and Valde’s prices have come down dramatically since there first matchup, making them still pretty attractive here. If OG can get to even 10-12 round wins on train that could be enough to put up some big scores. Issaa of course went off the game after being chalk, and his price has actually risen from the last time these teams played. It’s still very reasonable though, and he makes for a good stacking partner. I like Valde > Mantuu > Issaa, I’ll have 3 stacks of them and 2 stacks with those 3 paired in different combinations.
On the Dig side, I actually think they might come in a tad overowned after their performance last time out plus their demolition of Col. Frankly, I think that says more about the current state of Col than anything, so I’ll actually end up more on the OG side here. When I do play Dig, Heap is my target of choice. I’ll pair him with Hallzerk and maybe some Forest. I’m not buying the Friberg resurgence quite yet, so I won’t be touching him.
In the Heroic vs MiBR matchup, I want to again caution you on the MiBR projections. Even with 2 games in EU under their belt, the vast majority of their stats come from playing for Boom in SA and dominating the scene. All of their projections are inflated. I again expect MiBR to garner a bit more ownership than they deserve after looking pretty good so far this tournament. I’ll be heavier on the Heroic side here. For whatever reason they’re a bit more expensive than OG, but still cheaper than the other day. Stavn, Cadian, and Teses are my targets here, as Borup has never been a great fantasy producer and niko has been in an absolute rut of late.
In the Furia vs C9 game, I’ll have a mixture of both teams, I don’t really have a strong feeling either way as two who should win this matchup. Furia took it the first time, but C9 played them tough, taking it to all 3 maps. Because I like the favorites in the other two games, I’ll likely need some cost savings from this game. That’s likely to push me onto C9 more than Furia, which I’m fine with. One way I think we can be unique within C9 is by fading (not a full fade necessarily, but definitely less than the field) Xeppaa. It’s not that I don’t like Xeppaa or think he can’t have a good game, but his projections are mostly based on stats from when Chaos was winning NA tournaments after all of the good teams left for Europe. Naturally they’re a bit inflated, leading to his ownership also being inflated. Any of these 5 players can have the best game on any given day, so I’ll go for the ones with lower ownership. That should be Mezzii, Alex, and Floppy on this slate. Es3tag doesn’t have the inflated projections, but he does have a bit of inflated name value from his time with Astralis, which also boosts his ownership a bit. Again, I won’t have none of him, but I will likely have less than the field does in their C9 lineups.
Valde is my favorite captain play on this slate. He’ll likely have a good amount of ownership, captain ownership in general will likely be fairly spread out amongst the top couple of fraggers on the favorites. Valde has been OG’s best player for quite some time now, and I expect him to have another big day against Dig.
Teses had the huge game last time out against MiBR, which will likely pull some captain ownership towards him. I prefer Stavn and Cadian from Heroic.
I don’t really like anyone from C9 at captain. As I mentioned before, it’s hard to predict which of them will have a big day, and I prefer using them in a stack in the flex to trying to pick one to captain.
From Dig, I might have a bit of Heap at captain, but likely not much. MiBR have a similar problem to C9 in that it’s hard to predict who will have the best day, I’ll likely avoid them at captain as well. From Furia, I’ll have a bit of Yuurih and Kscerato, and maybe even a bit of arT. arT is doing a lot of AWPing now that Hen1 is gone, which should allow him to put up some big scores.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!