We’re back with another 3 game slate on Wednesday, as Draftkings has unfortunately decided not to include Dreamhack on the slate. Lock is again at 8:00 am EST and the games are:
Complexity (66% implied win probability) vs Dignitas
Faze (58%) vs MiBR
NiP (50%) vs Cloud 9
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub, and the player pool appears correct for all of the teams.
Slate Analysis
Pricing is again pretty loose, particularly in the NiP vs C9 game. That will be interesting for ownership, as the 50/50 deadlock in odds is pretty rare. C9 tends to project a bit better (particularly Xeppaa, whose stats are boosted from playing in NA), so my guess is ownership will tilt slightly towards them. With how cheap that whole game is, it’s easy enough to fit whoever basically whoever you want, which means the other two favorites will likely go overowned.
Complexity in particularly will likely have heavy ownership. The DFS community loves playing BlameF (and to a lesser extent K0nfig), couple that with the matchup against Dignitas and you have a recipe for chalk. The question is, can we play Dignitas? The answer is….uh, I guess? To be the question really comes down to pick/ban. Dignitas have looked halfway decent on Train (and Nuke, but that’s also one of Col’s best maps). If Poizon were playing, I’d expect Col to ban train, but since Jugi has stepped in Col have been permabanning Vertigo. If Dignitas are able to pick train, I think they’re very live as that map is definitely winnable for them, and if they can keep the other 2 at least close their fantasy scores could be competitive. Hallzerk still technically has Dignitas’ best stats over the past 3 months, but I’ve been impressed by what I’ve seen out of Heap. Those two are my favorite plays from Dignitas, with Forest rounding out the trio of players I’ll play any of from Dig.
If you go with the Complexity side, Rush is actually worth a look. Over the past 3 months he and Jks are averaging the same amount of kills per round (Rush does average more deaths). Rush is no longer a distant 5th option on this team. Jugi is also worth a look, but mostly because of his depressed price. I don’t have massive expectations for him in raw points, but a Col sweep could give him a solid point per dollar score.
While I do like MiBR a bit in this spot, before I jump in to my analysis, I do want to point out that all of their projections are super inflated from playing in Brazil. Definitely take them with a grain of salt. That said, I do think they’re perfectly live in this matchup. They definitely need to improve their T sides, as there were definitely some struggles running into much more organized defenses than they’re used to, but overall I think this squad has a lot of talent, and could certainly pull off the upset here. I’m interested in everyone except Danoco here and will likely have a bit all 4 of the other players.
I do think that the projections being inflated will lead to a bit higher ownership on MiBR, so I’ll likely split my lineups with MiBR and Faze exposure. On Faze, I’ll have some of everyone except Olof, with Broky being my top target. He’ll be in all my Faze stacks and I’ll mix and match the players around him.
From the C9/NiP game, I think C9 is going to have a bit more ownership, so I’ll be heavier on the NiP side. Nawwk, Rez, and Hampus are my favorite plays, as Plopski has really been struggling going back a few months now. I’ll have a bit of him too, but most of my focus will be on those first 3.
On the C9 side, it does appear that Alex will be doing most of the AWPing for the time being, and he played pretty well in the Furia series. I’ll use all 5 C9 players, and pricing makes me like them all about evenly. I think Mezii could be a bit sneaky, as don’t really need his salary savings all that much, I like him a good amount.
Top Captains
Again we have a slate mostly devoid of fantasy superstars. I expect BlameF to eat up a ton of captain ownership, but if Col wins there’s a good chance he puts up the highest score of the day, so I won’t be fully fading. I will likely be under the field though. You could pivot to K0nfig, but my favorite pivot is to Broky. He can also put up huge scores, and should come at much lower ownership than BlameF.
I’ll use a bit of Hallzerk and Heap from Dignitas. The remaining 3 teams are tough because they’re all super balanced. If I had to pick, my favorites are Shz from MiBR, Alex or es3tag from C9, and Nawwk from NiP. I’ll have basically everyone I mentioned being interested in above in my captain pool though, as I again think the slate is wide open outside of the Col studs.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!
