After a 6 game slate to open CS Summit 7, we’re immediately down to a 3 gamer on Tuesday. Lock is still at 8:00 am EST, and the games are:
Fnatic (52% implied win probability) vs OG
Mouz (53%) vs Heroic
VP (69%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams currently sub at all, and the rosters for all them appear to be correct. Given that Karrigan played with Mouz on Monday, I expect he will for the whole tournament.
Pricing is loose as can be on this slate. The only team that’s priced up is Furia who are…the biggest underdogs on the slate. What typically happens on slates like this, is the underdogs go underowned. I expect this to be particularly the case on Tuesday for OG and Heroic. They both struggled a bit as huge favorites on Monday, while Fnatic and Mouz both dominated their matchups. Ownership will likely be tilted much more to the Fnatic and Mouz sides than the odds would necessarily dictate. OG and Heroic make for great tournament plays.
The VP/Furia pricing is just flat out wrong. I do think VP are a bit too big of favorites, but Furia should be nowhere near the most expensive team on the slate. Yuurih is $800 more expensive not named Kscerato. The good news is their ownership should be very low, I actually do like them as a GPP play, as like I said I think they should be closer to a 40% implied win probability instead of the 31% they’re given. Honda has looked capable in his time filling in for Hen1 as we wait for Junior to get to Europe.
For OG I like Valde and Mantuu as my main targets. Issaa burned a lot of people on Monday, which should lower his ownership a bit, and his depressed price doesn’t matter quite as much given that everyone outside of Furia is cheap. I’ll have a bit but not a ton.
From Heroic, look for Teses to get a major ownership boost after he went nuts on Monday. I’ll prioritize Stavn and Cadian over him for that reason, but niko continued his run of poor play to start 2021, I’ll barely have any of him until further notice.
I will definitely being some Fnatic and Mouz, even if I do like the underdogs quite a bit. For Fnatic, the pricing relative to each other makes more sense, Krimz is up to 2nd highest priced instead of 4th. He and Brollan are my targets of choice. As expected, Jackinho did not put up the insane stats he was putting up in domestic leagues, but he is a bit intriguing at only $5.4k on this slate. Again, take any projections of his with a grain of salt, as most of the stats are from when he was playing those domestic tournaments, and are thus inflated.
From Mouz, Ropz, Frozen, and acoR might be the most popular 3 stack on the slate. All 3 are cheap, with Ropz topping the group at only $8k. All 3 have big upside, and Mouz looked incredibly sharp in the roster’s debut against Faze. Bymas is also definitely playable in this spot.
Last but certainly not least, VP are also well underpriced. Jame saving every round, while arguably bad for his actual CS team, definitely doesn’t hurt for Draftkings. He, Yekindar, and Buster all make for strong plays on Tuesday. Ownership will be high, but so is the upside.
With pricing so loose, I definitely my captain slot to be the highest scoring player on the slate. Without any of the true DFS superstars on the slate, that’s still quite a few players. The players I’ll have in my captain pool are (in order of when their game is, not how much I like them):
Ropz, Frozen, acoR
Stavn, Cadian, Teses
As I like the underdogs in general, most of my captain exposure will also come from the underdogs. I like Valde in particular, as he’s really separated himself as OG’s best player in my opinion. I also like Stavn a good amount, as he’s been consistently strong as well for Heroic.
That’s it from me, good luck on Tuesday!