Friday we’re back down to a 2 game slate as the Blast Premier Global Final continues. Games start at 10:30 am EST, and they are:
Liquid (55% implied win probability) vs EG
G2 (52%) vs Navi
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
We finally have a slate with minimal sub risk. The only team that subs is Navi, and (to date) they only sub B1t in for Flamie on Inferno. It seems likely that Inferno will be available to be picked, Navi permaban Vertigo and G2 have been banning Overpass lately, but both teams have sub 50% win rates on Inferno in the last 3 months. I could maybe see Navi picking it as they sit at 45% win rate including beating Complexity there on Thursday while G2 sit at 22%, but I’m not confident in that. Regardless, Flamie isn’t exactly a great play even if Inferno isn’t in the pool, so with this being the late game I’ll be building without Flamie in my player pool.
Actual Slate Analysis
I’ve been impressed by this new look Liquid roster, as even though they got 2-0’d by Vitality, they were pretty competitive in that series and they also just swept Navi. Evidently Vegas and whoever does Draftkings pricing have been impressed as well. I was a bit surprised to see them as favorites over NA rival EG. Not because I don’t think they should be, I do think they’ve looked better since this tournament started, but because of how fast Vegas reacted to the changes, as after all EG is on a 6 match win streak against Liquid, dating back to last June. However, Draftkings has also adjusted, and Liquid is priced quite a bit more expensive than EG. Much like in the Furia series, I expect this will lead to EG being overowned relative to their odds.
Pricing isn’t super tight on this slate, but it’s tight enough that the difference from Liquid’s studs to EG’s studs matters. I expect 3/2/1 builds to be super common in this one, particularly with the 2-1 coming from the G2/Navi game. 2 G2 + S1mple or 2 Navi + Niko is going to be extremely prevalent on this slate. It’s hard to fit the best Liquid players with S1mple + Niko + Hunter/KennyS/Electronic/Nexa, so unless you punt the 3rd player from that game, it’s likely that this will push more people onto EG, as you can easily fit their studs with S1mple + Niko + whoever you want. This makes me want to do what I can to fit Liquid as they’re likely to be underowned, but again on a 2 game slate “underowned” means 30%+ on Elige/Naf/Fallen, so it’s not like they’ll be sneaky.
One way you can easily differentiate though, is by taking your 2-1 from the Liquid/EG game, and 3 stacking either Navi or G2. I’ll likely lean G2 if I do this, as I think it’s more likely Navi comes out completely flat than G2 does. I don’t even hate running a 2-1/2-1, with S1mple, Niko +1 and then either 2 Liquid and 1 EG or 2 EG and 1 Liquid. This is of course highly risky, although maybe not as much as on a normal slate. S1mple and Niko are two of the safer DK plays, and realistically for the 3rd from that game you’re choosing either Electronic, Hunter, KennyS or maybe Nexa, so it’s not like you have an insane amount of possibilities to cover. Nailing the 2-1 from the EG/Liquid game is definitely the hard part (hence when most people are going to 3 stack either team) as each team has 3+ guys who can be the top fragger on any given day.
It’s S1mple or Niko at captain for me on Friday. Like I just mentioned, there’s legitimately 6 or 7 people from the EG game who all have a similar chance of putting up the top score. And most of the time that top score will be less than what S1mple or Niko puts up in a win. Therefore, I don’t see a huge need to stray from either of them at captain. I won’t use Niko at captain if I’m running 2 Navi and 1 G2, but I will use S1mple captain in 1 Navi and 2 G2 lineups. He and Zywoo are the only people I’d do this with on 2 gamers.
If I use anyone from the Liquid/EG game at captain I’d probably go: Elige > Fallen > Naf > Brehze > Cerq > Ethan. That’s more ownership driven than anything, as again any of those players could be the best from the game on any given day.
Electronic will likely have elevated captain ownership after his huge game Thursday, so for that reason I’ll be staying away. I suppose you could take a shot on KennyS or Hunter, but with the tournaments (and thus max entries) relatively small I likely won’t go there myself.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!