After opening the tournament with a 2 game slate, we have a nice 3 game slate on Wednesday. I just posted an article breaking down lineup constructions of what’s won in the past on 3 game slates, you can check that out here. Lock is early, at 7:30 am EST so make sure to get those lineups in. The games are:
Vitality (84% implied win probability) vs Complexity
Navi (69%) vs Liquid
EG (57%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Again, we have a couple lineup changes and sub risks to make note of. First, for whatever reason Hen1 is back in the player pool. He’s not playing, it’ll be Honda playing for Furia again. Honda had the quite the debut, picking up 3 aces in his debut match as Furia lost a close match to G2. Complexity’s roster is not correct on Draftkings. Rush is missing from the player pool, while he is still very much on the team. Meanwhile, OttoND is still in the player pool, he is not playing. It’s now Jugi filling in for Poizon who is still out on medical leave. Liquid has added Fallen, replacing Twistzz. He’ll be their primary AWPer and possibly IGL (he said was unsure if he or Stewie would be IGL in an interview recently).
As for sub risk, we have 2 teams that were running 6 man rosters at the end of 2020. Navi was subbing in B1t on Inferno, in place of Flamie. That was the only map he was playing. However, he has been back playing with Navi Junior since Navi’s 2020 season ended, and it’s unclear whether or not he’ll continue getting experience on the big squad. For what it’s worth, Navi Jr does not have an official match on Wednesday. I’ll still be careful about building lineups with Flamie in them, but I’d be pretty surprised if B1t played more than just Inferno, and honestly my guess is that he won’t be playing with the parent squad at all to start the year, that is just my conjecture though.
The other team that subs is of course Vitality. Their sub situation is a lot messier than Navi, and frankly has a lot potential to have changed. Unfortunately, Nivera isn’t in the player pool, but his subbing still has potential implications for the Vitality players who are in the pool. At the end of 2020 he was playing 3 maps, Inferno, Nuke, and Dust 2. He subbed for in Shox on Inferno, and Misutaaa on Dust 2 and Nuke. With over a month off, he could very well be incorporated into more maps by now. In my opinion he’s their second best player behind Zywoo, so I would not be surprised to see him work into more and more maps. They added him to Nuke without warning so the same could be true for other maps. Complexity is in my opinion the most unpredictable Tier 1 team in terms of pick/ban so I’m not even going to speculate on what the maps of that series will be. It is the first series of the day, so if you wake up early and the picks are out before lock, you could gain yourself a pretty big edge. The sub risk for additional maps beyond the 3 is:
Safe – Apex (IGL), Zywoo (Zywoo)
Low/Moderate Risk – RpK, Shox
High Risk – Misutaaa
Even though Shox does sub out on Inferno I think he’s still comparable risk to RpK to be subbed out on a new map, while Misutaaa, who is already subbed out on 2 maps and is the weakest link (considering Apex is IGL) in the team, is the likeliest to be subbed out. And I don’t mean that as a slight to Misutaaa, as the weakest link in a top 3 team is still pretty strong.
Actual Slate Analysis
Pricing is absolutely busted on this slate. EG are (slight) favorites over Furia, yet are priced like massive underdogs. Brehze is only $6.4k, and even more egregiously Cerq is only $5.2k. Now, this is an interesting line, as Furia had swept EG 4 straight times before the teams left for Europe to end 2020. The question comes down to do you believe in Honda. He had moments of greatness against G2 in his debut, picking up the 3 aces I mentioned earlier, but even with those aces he had a negative K-D on all 3 maps. Granted he was -5, -5, -2, so it’s not like he was terrible, but that’s a lot of aces to still end up negative. If he can be a bit more consistent I do think Furia has a strong chance to take EG down.
Furia are expensive though, and with both Zywoo and S1mple on the slate and heavy favorites, 3 EG, S1mple, Zywoo, and a filler from either Navi or Vitality are likely to be the chalk construction. EG’s ownership is going to far outweigh their win probability on this slate. While that makes me love the Furia side, you admittedly have to sacrifice elsewhere in your lineup to fit them. However, there is one other blatant mispricing that you can take advantage of.
That is of course, Fallen. At only $4.8k, Fallen is the 2nd cheapest player (who is actually playing) on the whole slate. As the primary AWPer on Liquid, that’s far too cheap. In my article about winning on 3 game slates, I wrote that you shouldn’t play opponents on 3 game slates. The only exceptions to that came when S1mple and/or Zywoo were on the slate. Here, I actually prefer Fallen as my stacking partner from that game with S1mple, particularly when you play Furia as it’s unlikely to have enough cash laying around to afford Electronic. A full Liquid stack is also interesting, especially if you think the Fallen addition is an overall upgrade. They did play Navi fairly close just before the break after all.
The Vitality vs Complexity game would be a fun one, except that Poizon is still out. Hopefully he is ok and can get back to playing soon (according to his twitter he will be back in the near future). With Col playing with a stand-in, I’m not super interested in them even at low prices. I supposed BlameF is worth a one off, but I really expect them to get crushed in this spot. On the Vitality side, it’s really unfortunate that Nivera isn’t in the player pool. He’d make for a great play if maps come out before lock and he’s in at least the first two. As it is, it’s to trust anyone outside of Zywoo for DFS. Sure, Apex will be in the server every map, but he fairly routinely gets outscored by guys who sit out a map. If Inferno isn’t picked, Shox is a strong play, but it’s possible we don’t know the maps until after lock. Similarly, RpK, was safe from sub risk in 2020, but his price has risen to an astronomical $8.8k. It’s very unlikely Misutaaa doesn’t sit for at least 1 map, so I’ll be building assuming that case, which means I won’t have any Misutaaa. As I mentioned earlier, there’s also additional sub risk for everyone not named Zywoo or Apex IF Nivera has been added to more maps.
Overall, I like Furia + Liquid + Zywoo as a nice pivot off of everyone’s EG + S1mple + Zywoo lineups for tournaments.
Zywoo and S1mple, like always, are the obvious choices here. With how cheap EG is, it’s not super difficult to fit either of them at captain, and I’ll definitely have plenty of exposure. When I move off of those two, I’m likely to try to find someone who can put up a better point per dollar score than them, not necessarily outscore them in raw points. This means I’m less likely to pivot to a Yuurih or Kscerato, and more likely to pivot to a Cerq, Brehze, or Fallen. I might also use a bit of arT captain in an effort to fit both Zywoo and S1mple into a Furia lineup.
Electronic is always a slightly interesting pivot off of S1mple, and the Furia and Liquid studs are likely to have virtually no captain ownership, but the GPPs aren’t really big enough for me to devote a bunch of lineups here. I’ll be focused on S1mple, Zywoo, and the value plays as my captains on Wednesday.
That’s it from me, good luck!