We’re back! After a month long layoff, Tier 1 CS:GO finally returns on Tuesday. We have a 2 game slate that kicks off at 10:30 am EST. The games are:
Astralis (80% implied win probability) vs EG
G2 (72%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Before we actually jump in, there are a couple of changes to make note of. The biggest is that Hen1 has officially left Furia, and Junior will eventually be his replacement. Unfortunately, Junior is having passport issues, and can’t make it to Europe for this tournament. Furia has added Honda to their roster as an apparently permanent 6th man, although of course they’ll only have 5 this tournament so there won’t be any sub risk. Honda only has 2 games on his HLTV profile, but he has been a part of Furia’s academy team for the past month. Evidently they’ve liked what they’ve seen, as like I mentioned the move appears to be permanent even once Junior is able to play. Based on his 2 games on HLTV, it look he’s at least a part time AWPer, he has about as many AWP kills as AK kills. I’d expect him and arT to share AWP duties.
Astralis is still employing a 6 man roster, with Bubzkji as their 6th man. IF they continue their late 2020 pattern, he only subs in for Xyp9x on Nuke. However, with over a month off it’s definitely possible that he’ll be incorporated into more maps. Since Glaive is back to IGL, he and Device (AWP) should be safe from sub risk regardless of the map. Any of Xyp9x, Magisk, or Dupreeh could be subbed out if they have decided to play Bubzkji on more maps. I haven’t been able to find anything stating whether or not this will be the case, so my plan is to build as if Xyp9x is the only one with sub risk.
Jackz is officially gone from G2, so there is no more sub risk for them. EG also has their same 5 man roster returning to start 2021.
Actual Slate Analysis
Even though EG and Furia have been the class of NA, we have pretty lopsided game lines here. Pricing is looooose with no one priced over $8.6k and only 4 players at $8.0k or higher, two of which are from Furia. If you’re willing to play Amanek, you can fit any 3/3 you want with Astralis/G2. I expect the Astralis/G2 3/3 to be incredibly popular. If you read my post about how to win 2 game slates you’ll know that the majority of the time a 3/2/1 lineup construction won. Brehze jumps out as a nice one off to play as he’s far too cheap, and you can build similar lineups to those running a 3/3 with Amanek. Even if G2 wins and EG loses, there’s a decent chance Brehze can still outscore Amanek. I also like either of the expensive Furia players, Yuurih or Kscerato, as a one off. This should be fairly unique as well as most people will likely opt for the cheaper and heavy favorite G2 players unless they are running Furia stacks.
As for actually stacking either underdog, I think it’s fine but likely won’t be all that sneaky as it’s only a 2 game slate. Ownership will probably be similar between the two dogs, as Furia are more expensive but smaller underdogs. If you stack Furia, I like including Honda in that stack, as their path to victory likely includes him being better than I think the DFS public will anticipate, and if you stack them you are basically banking on a Furia upset.
Overall, my preferred lineup construction on this slate is a 3/2/1 where the one off is from one of the underdogs but the stacks are from the favorites.
One thing I like to do when pricing is loose is leave money on the table to play 2nd or 3rd fraggers at captain. We’re going to see a ton of captain ownership tomorrow on Device and Niko, as it’s super easy to fit them. This should leave players like Dupreeh, Magisk, Hunter, and KennyS underowned at captain. All of them have the potential to put up the top score on the slate, and I particularly like using them if you run a 3/3.
In the 3/2/1 constructions, I’ll definitely have some Device and Niko, but will still have some of the 2nd and 3rd fraggers. I will not be running any captains from the one off, as the only time that won tournaments in 2020 was when it was S1mple or Zywoo (once each). Other than them the winning captain when 3/2/1 lineups won was always a part of the 3 or 2 stack.
Good luck on Tuesday!