Wednesday, July 22nd Recap
Rogue Warriors vs eStar (Net: -1.0 units)
Game one looked like it was in the bag for eStar before a few critical errors around the fourth and fifth drakes ended up disrupting their momentum and eventually the game. This one could have gone either way it was just down to execution and RW made fewer mistakes. Game two on the other hand… eStar had this one in the bag and then just allowed multiple desperation plays to work out. RW correctly identified that they weren’t going to win a straight up fight and opted into split pushing shenanigans which they were well equipped for but with the deficit they had and a problematic Poppy to sidelane against champions like Camille and Lee Sin, it wasn’t going to be easy. At one point they threw a bit of a hail mary commiting two to the bottom lane while eStar had leverage around baron. They were indecisive. And then the same play again. eStar this time go for it before it’s stolen.
eStar looked about as coordinated as a silver solo queue team dealing with a split pusher. I don’t know if they were just lacking the leadership with two new people in the lineup but how they managed this so poorly is just beyond me. Pretty embarrassing losing that game two.
RW and specifically Wuming and Haro continue to impress although, in this case, they were the beneficiaries of a few critical mistakes in both games. eStar effectively ended their season on this loss so we’ll have to be cautious with them moving forward whether we’re with or against them.
Team WE vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: -1.99 units)
BiliBili had an excellent game plan in game one to go over the top and outscale Team WE. They did so with a snowball to boot. They completely ran WE over. Games two and three they just completely abandoned the game plan that worked. I know drafts aren’t as binary as “just do this” or “just do that” but it absolutely blows my mind that teams let Team WE have Galio or Aphelios ever without some very specific counterpick in mind. This one was frustrating. Especially for these non-elite teams with their season on the line, just do what works and keep it simple. Don’t get cute. If you get outplayed then so be it but it really sucks to go down on something so stupid and trust me, I’ve been there as the drafting coach suffering from this problem and it feels AWFUL afterwards.
LPL Total: -2.99 units
Daily Total Net: -2.99 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 4
TOP Esports -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -417) vs
Dominus Esports +1012 (+1.5 maps @ +291, -1.5 @ +1400)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -127 / +10.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -116 / under -112)
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui
TOP are 9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -846)
TOP are 12-11 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -7.6)
DMO are 1-8 straight up, 4-5 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +464)
DMO are 11-10 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +7.38)
DMO have covered the map spread in 4 of their past 5 matches and the kill spread 8 out of 13 games
Dominus have looked much better with this lineup compared to the one they started the season with but have still only defeated EDG as underdogs this season despite being competitive against some strong competition. The model grades them as the second worst team but a good margin ahead of LNG and not far behind OMG. Is that great? No but it’s something.
Vici really tested TOP in game two of their last outing but they still managed to get the job done with a vastly inferior scaling team in a 50+ minute game., Game one was a shellacking. Other than their loss to V5 and two other game losses, TOP have been the most dominant team on the planet over the course of the full Summer season.
The only real argument for Dominus here is that TOP experiment or take their foot off the gas a little bit as they coast out the rest of the season. This is the easiest match remaining on their schedule as they still have Suning, WE, Invictus, and RNG to go so if there’s a chance they mail in a series this is it. Dominus are all but eliminated from playoff contention while the rest are all still very much alive to make playoffs.
I rarely fire on these big dogs especially if the margin between the two is multiple orders of magnitude but I think Dominus are totally live to take a game here. This team has been competitive against some good teams taking games off of WE, Invictus, EDG and Suning in their past five matches and I could definitely see TOP looking past them or simply taking it easy in practice for a week even though they’ve got plenty of competition nipping at their heels for first place.
This is also Dominus’ Super Bowl. You’ve got a lot of younger players looking to prove themselves for a future job and a team with nothing to lose can be dangerous against a team that’s got very little motivation to put a lot of effort into this match even if they are significantly better.
When the kill spreads get this large and you’ve got a low motivation spot you frequently see the favorites either get down and dirty and play down or just take care of business quickly and quietly. I absolutely love huge kill spreads in these spots.
Odds Weighted: 28.42
Underdog Win: 29.84
“G” Projected Total: 27.68 kills
I think this could end up sloppier than a lot of people think for the above mentioned reasons. Maybe TOP screw around or experiment, maybe they’re just off on the day or had a light practice week. I could also see them playing with their food and running the score up. I’ll take the over.
TOP game times: 31.72 / 33.71 / 33.94 (average / in wins / in losses)
DMO game times: 31.89 / 32.89 / 31.60 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.81 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.72 minutes
Given that this could be a lopsided stomping or a total fiesta I’m just going to pass on the total although I’d lean to the over. TOP haven’t exactly been in a rush in a lot of their games although their average in wins is dragged down by some hilarious games like the 50+ minute bonanza against Vici. Pass.
First Blood: TOP 56.21% / DMO 53.85%
First Tower: TOP 56.52% / DMO 38.46%
First Dragon: TOP 56.52% / DMO 42.31%
First Herald: TOP 65.22% / DMO 42.31%
Dominus are going to give it their all in this match and I could easily see TOP being sloppy. I love the prop markets in these spots.
Spread: Dominus +1.5 maps @ +291 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Dominus +1012 (0.25 units)
Spread: Dominus -1.5 maps @ +1400 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 DMO +10.5 kills @ -103 (1.03 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 DMO +10.5 kills @ +105 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 DMO first blood @ +136 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 DMO first blood @ 136 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 DMO first herald @ +169 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 DMO first herald @ +169 (0.5 units)
JD Gaming -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -244) vs
LNG Esports +713 (+1.5 maps @ +187, -1.5 @ +1012)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -128 / under -101)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -115 / +9.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +115 / under -149)
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
JDG are 9-1 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -321)
JDG are 17-8 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6)
LNG are 2-7 straight up, 4-5 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +370)
LNG are 7-14 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.61)
LNG have covered the kill spread in just 1 of their past 9, 2 of their past 12 games
JDG have returned to championship form of late after a somewhat rusty start to the Summer season. They’ve won 10 of their past 13 games against WE, EDG, LGD, Vici, and FPX. While it’s not insane that certainly isn’t an easy schedule either. LNG, on the other hand, have won just two individual games since the beginning of week three going 2-16 in that span. They’ve put up a paltry 5.25 kills per loss in that time. To say LNG roll over and die would be an understatement and that’s been the case in all but a few games over the course of this entire season. They hardly ever bring the fight to you even when they’re spoon-fed a lead by an opponent’s mistake.
We’ve seen JDG get arrogant at times this season but given the fact that they’re still very much in the conversation for one of the top two playoff seedings two series in tow over Invictus and one fewer than TOP, I’d expect they’ll be putting forth a strong effort in this series.
Unlike Dominus, I just don’t trust LNG to put up much of a fight. This team quite literally looks depressed and wants this season over while Dominus are at least battling especially of late. This is also a team of primarily veterans as opposed to younger players and prospects. There’s a chance JDG take this one lightly but I doubt it. BLG, eStar, LNG, OMG, and Victory Five makes for a very easy remaining schedule with only one difficult opponent for the rest of the way for JDG. If you believe that they feel they can coast and want to take a shot on LNG feel free but I’d rather take a flier on Dominus.
Underdog Win: 25.5
“G” Projected Total: 23.61 kills
I’d lean to the under on this one given LNG’s lack of willingness to fight but this is also a fairly low total for the LPL so I’ll pass.
JDG game times: 31.24 / 31.85 / 29.93 (average / in wins / in losses)
LNG game times: 31.67 / 34.66 / 30.72 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.45 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.40 minutes
31:00 is a very low total and to get plus money on the over is tempting but I really do think JDG just run this series over so I’ll pass.
First Blood: JDG 44% / LNG 44%
First Tower: JDG 48% / LNG 20%
First Dragon: JDG 56% / LNG 44%
First Herald: JDG 52% / LNG 44%
LNG’s first blood rate is heavily biased toward their first two weeks. They’ve only picked up first blood 5 times in their past 18 games. Given the low total and JDG’s strong overall dragon control I’ll be taking a shot on the under 4.5 drakes as I could see this being a clean sweep in at least one and probably both games of this series.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -244 (2.44 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +117 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +117 (1 unit)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 1
LCK trends through five weeks:
Favorites are 39-11 straight up, 30-20 against the map spread
There have been 5 underdog 2-0s.
Favorites are 71-45 against the kill spread
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 59 out of 116 games
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 64 out of 116 games
Favorites have covered their team total 67 out of 116 games
Underdogs have covered their team total 59 out of 116 games
DragonX -667 (-1.5 maps @ -161) vs
KT Rolster +416 (+1.5 maps @ +126, -1.5 @ +901)
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -118 / under -11)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -118 / +8.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -115 / under -112)
DRX are 7-1 straight up, 5-3 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -900)
DRX are 9-10 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -7.0)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 10 out of 19 games where DRX were favored
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 19 games where DRX were favored
DRX have covered their team total 9 out of 19 games as favorites (avg total: 13.875)
Opponents have covered their team total 8 out of 19 games as underdogs vs DRX
KT are 2-4 straight up, 3-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +203)
KT are 8-6 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.67)
KT have covered their team total in 9 out of 14 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.67)
KT looked solid in their last outing against Sandbox but as I’ve mentioned before, it’s difficult to tell how strong of an opponent Sandbox really is given the easy schedule they faced during their winning streak. As I’ve mentioned a few times this season and extensively heading into Summer, this KT team should improve as the season goes on as they build chemistry with the new lineup and figure out which lineup they want to go with.
DragonX have looked very much like themselves, sometimes going a little too far off the deep end in drafts but nonetheless impressing by winning with some very outside of the box team compositions. This team is still extremely good although they’re flying a little under the radar with how dominant DAMWON and Gen.G have been in their wins but I’d still put this team in a class alongside those two even if it’s not quite on the same level at the moment.
There’s a chance DragonX are looking ahead to their bout with Gen.G later in the week but given that this is the first day back from the two off days I’m not sure lack of preparation will be an issue. I’ll be taking a shot on the underdogs to take a game here and on the kill spreads. KT Rolster should continue to improve and when you consider that DragonX have a “weird” game every so often that’s sort of like icing on the cake when taking underdogs against them. KT have gone 8-6 against the kill spread with a significantly lower average spread than this one and DragonX haven’t exactly been covering machines with a losing ATKS record. I expect this to be a competitive series.
Odds Weighted: 22.54
Underdog Win: 24.31
“G” Projected Total: 22.356 kills
Overs here across the board.
DRX game times: 31.71 / 31.14 / 33.51 (average / in wins / in losses)
KT game times: 33.35 / 34.32 / 32.68 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.53 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.27 minutes
Close enough, I’ll pass.
First Blood: DRX 44% / KT 68.18%
First Tower: DRX 40% / KT 45.45%
First Dragon: DRX 52% / KT 68.18%
First Herald: DRX 40% / KT 54.55%
KT props look excellent here.
Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ +126 (1 unit)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +416 (0.5 units)
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +901 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 KT Rolster +8.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 KT Rolster +8.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first blood @ -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first blood @ -111 (1.11 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first dragon @ +114 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first dragon @ +112 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first herald @ +147 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first herald @ +102 (0.5 units)
Gen.G Esports -909 (-1.5 maps @ -217) vs
Team Dynamics +543 (+1.5 maps @ +163, -1.5 @ +1000)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -115 / +8.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -101 / under -128)
Gen.G are 7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -596)
Gen.G are 12-4 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.5)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 12 out of 16 games where Gen.G were favorites (avg total: 21.79)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 16 games where Gen.G were favored (avg total: 32.57)
Gen.G have covered their team total in 12 out of 16 games as favorites (avg total: 13.93)
Opponents have covered their team total in 7 out of 16 games as underdogs vs Gen.G (avg total: 7.93)
DYN are 2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +362.7)
DYN are 8-8 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +7.07)
DYN have covered their team total in 10 out of 16 games (avg total: 7.65)
Opponents have covered their team total in 10 out of 16 games (avg total: 14.07)
Dynamics are still consistently making the correct decisions regardless of where they are in the game and while they may lack in raw ability compared to the elite teams, they’ll remain competitive and a tough out for anybody especially given their unique style and champion pools.
Gen.G are quietly performing at a similar level to DAMWON but without all the flashy highlight reel plays. Contrary to popular belief they have a similar CKPM and KPW and their economy metrics are still ridiculous albeit not the unsustainably good DAMWON numbers. As of right now I think Gen.G might just be the best team in Korea. With nearly a 70% first blood rate, 74% first tower, 60%+ first dragon and almost 87% first herald there’s really not any aspect of the objective game they aren’t completely dominating thanks to a tremendous season by Clid and BDD who are immediately taking over seemingly every game. I think there might be some regression in order but primarily because the rest of the league should improve as the season goes on. Gen.G are playing extremely good LOL right now.
I like Dynamics as underdogs but unlike DragonX, T1, and even DWG to a lesser extent, Gen.G aren’t even letting teams hang around in games or jump out to any sort of advantage. Gen.G have had a gold deficit of 1000g or more in just four games total this season and two of those were on opening week.
Odds Weighted: 28.05
Underdog Win: 18.625
“G” Projected Total: 25.32 kills
Dynamics have had a wide range of outcomes in terms of the totals in their games but I do think the over is the play here. Gen.G have been putting up 17.7 kills per win on their own.
Gen.G game times: 31.34 / 30.46 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)
DYN game times: 32.69 / 33.84 / 31.86 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.01minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.55 minutes
Lean under but I’ll pass.
First Blood: GEG 69.57% / DYN 41.67%
First Tower: GEG 73.91% / DYN 54.17%
First Dragon: GEG 60.87% / DYN 62.5%
First Herald: GEG 86.96% / DYN 45.83%
First dragon for Dynamics is worth a shot on this one given the odds but that’s about it.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first dragon @ +126 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 Dynamics first dragon @ +126 (0.5 units)