We’ve narrowed the field down to the top eight teams as we prepare for quarterfinals starting on Thursday morning with an LCK Summer Finals rematch between DragonX and DAMWON Gaming. Before we dive into that matchup in more detail I thought we’d take some time to check in on the futures that are still alive.
For specifics on these wagers you can check the following posts out and if none of this interests you and you just want the game breakdowns scroll down to that:
Pentakill? No @ +162 – None yet so our “no” is still live although we’ve had four quadra kills, two of which were from junglers (Canyon on Graves and Pyosik on Nidalee)
Highest CS by champion in a map UNDER 500.5 @ -109 – This one is still quite healthy as the closest we’ve come was 441 by Wunder in the tiebreaker match with Suning that went 44:07
Highest CS per minute by a champion in a map? UNDER 12.0 @ +105 – This looks like a lock right now. The highest we’ve seen is a few 11.2’s and 11.1’s. The current state of the game with all of the weakside handshaking and diving doesn’t really set up well for catching a ton of waves and funneling into a carry. The game is simply too fast paced.
Longest Map? UNDER 51:59 @ -109 – 45:28 is the long so far between Gen.G and LGD.
Shortest Map? OVER 20:45 @ -116 – 23:08 was the Suning stomp of G2 before the tiebreaker match. DAMWON had a few short ones too. Essentially you’d need a double or triple tower push with a herald and there’s only one real team doing that kind of thing in this tournament and it’s DAMWON. I doubt they’ll do that against these top teams but who knows. This one is looking good.
Most Deaths by a champion in a map? UNDER 9.5 @ -116 – Solo came close with a 2-9-6 scoreline against UOL in that long weird game on Renekton. I’d think this is probably a lock at this point unless we get an obscenely long and bloody game.
Most Kills by a champion in a map? UNDER 15.5 @ -116 – Pyosik almost broke this on the first day with a 13 kill Nidalee game and Canyon matched him with a 13 kill Graves. The rest are 12’s and 11’s and the vast majority of games don’t have anything more than 7. 15.5 was an extremely high number this is looking good especially the further along we get in the tournament with tighter games.
Total Champions Banned UNDER 66.5 @ -120 – We’ve had 55 unique bans so far. There’s a chance we see a few more as teams adjust during a best-of-five to a weird curveball thrown by other teams but we’d need 12 more champions picked and I doubt we’ll see that. This one’s looking good.
Total champions Picked+Banned? UNDER 90.5 @ -120 – We’re at 74 for this number at the moment with a lot of bizarre stuff already. I figure we’ll see a handful more unique picks here like Neeko from G2 for example but it’s tough to see this number getting close to 90.5.
All told we’re looking very VERY good for these markets and stand to make a pretty penny if things don’t get too wild. We’ve got quite a cushion built.
Most Picked+Banned? Lucian, Nidalee, and Ornn all lead the pack at 45 each here with Graves and Syndra at 44 and Twisted Fate a bit behind at 40. Our positions on Nidalee, Graves, Lillia, and Lucian are our primary wagers are all looking quite good especially Lucian at +2500.
Most Banned? Lucian leads the way at 36, Twisted Fate at 34, and Nidalee is next up at 30. Twisted Fate was off my radar a bit because I wasn’t sure how teams would react to the nerfs (I assumed they’d overreact but they didn’t good on ya!) I don’t think Lucian will become any less popular as a ban as the quality of teams is at a premium level now and all of these teams are capable of flexing him to two positions effectively. Again +2500 looking great.
Most Picked? Graves leads the way BY A MILE at 36 selections with the next closest being 23 for Syndra, Senna, and Ashe. Graves at +600 might as well cash in now unless teams opt to start banning it.
Novelty Champion Props:
Highest Damage Champion – Currently this is held by G2’s Perkz on Ezreal at 47,169 and I have a fairly difficult time seeing that broken given the remaining teams in the tournament and how their games tend to go. This was in a 40+ minute game against Suning. Maybe we’ll get a crazy Gangplank game like we saw from Bin or something.
Most kills in a map? Currently this is Graves and Nidalee we had long shots on Kassadin and Tristana. Fat chance we cash this one.
Most Deaths in a map? We took a duo-bet on Leona+Nautilus but currently Solo’s 9 death Renekton holds the title. Tough to see that one being broken but we’ll see.
To Reach Finals: Suning +2100
To Reach Finals: Gen.G +1100
To Reach Finals: DragonX +1100
Even with Gen.G playing as badly as they have been I think these are all very live and at some books you can actually get even better odds on DragonX and Gen.G now, I may end up piling on.
To Win Finals: DAMWON +400
To Win Finals: Gen.G +1700
To Win Finals: DragonX +1500
Region of Winnger: LPL @ -125
Same boat here. Remember are large wager was LPL -125 to basically cover entry on the LCK teams. We profit in most scenarios.
I won’t go into each and every one but our plan to take the undervalued players from these elite teams looks solid so far given that they all made it to the quarterfinals.
World Championships 2020
Quarterfinals – Day One
DAMWON Gaming -714 (-1.5 maps @ -256, -2.5 @ +147, +1.5 @ -2500) vs
DragonX +483 (+1.5 maps @ +185, +2.5 @ -200, -1.5 @ +858, -2.5 @ +2000)
Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -172 / under +130), 4.5 maps (over +275 / under -400)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -110 / +8.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -109)
This might be one of my favorite positions and one of the most egregious lines posted in the entire tournament. That may sound strange given that DAMWON are my favorite to win this entire tournament but I have a few ideas to throw your way.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this matchup. We saw two regular season series and a playoff series, the LCK Summer Finals between these two teams. Below is the lines used from my article for that Grand Final series which took place on September 5th, just over five weeks ago.
What has changed in that time to warrant a nearly 300 point line move in favor of DAMWON? Sure, they 3-0’d that final and that’s going to contribute to this but have DAMWON done anything in this tournament to up their stock that much? Have DragonX done anything to downgrade their stock that drastically? There are going to be people that now try to retroactively say that DAMWON were just beating up on bad teams but Gen.G playing the worst that they have all season long still 5-1’d their group in the main event and DragonX had two close games against the majority favorite in TOP Esports. Strictly on line value alone this is an obscene number but there’s more to this.
These two teams are very familiar with each other. They split the Summer regular season series a match each with DragonX winning the first meeting 2-1 and DAMWON the second 2-0. That familiarity is more often than not a buff to the underdog and not the favorite. To me the only teams that are going to beat DAMWON in this tournament are the ones that are able to throw a wrench in their plans. We’ve seen DragonX do this before and they have a lot of stage and scrim experience against this team. To me the other LCK teams stand a better chance at upending them than the LPL teams do. The devil you know and all that…
Another angle at play here is something we went into great detail when recording The Gold Card Podcast on Tuesday night; DragonX continue to be a disrespected team. I don’t think anybody is calling DragonX the best Korean team. I don’t think anybody would argue with you that DAMWON are the best Korean team and maybe the best team in the world but a number like this feels disrespectful to a team that has a combined winning match record against the other top LCK teams in Gen.G and DAMWON. If you include playoffs, DragonX have gone a combined 9-10 in games against Gen.G (7-4) and DAMWON (2-6). Gen.G also split their regular season series with DAMWON by the way. The point I’m making is that DAMWON might be the best and they might have some of the best metrics we’ve ever seen but these are teams that have defeated them multiple times this season. I’ll note that TOP didn’t lose to any of the LPL teams at this tournament in Summer and only had two losses to LPL representatives this entire calendar year, LGD Spring regular season and JDG in Spring finals. If you’re going to apply the “JDG and TOP are close” argument then ask yourself if a line between those two teams would be this far apart? Unless you think the gap is that drastic then you have to see how insane this is.
It might be simpler than all of this. For whatever reason people don’t like this DragonX team. It reminds me quite a bit of a team like Rogue who, until the very end, still didn’t get the respect they deserved. I don’t get it. Sure, they are a bit weird in the draft sometimes but this team is stacked with talent and they’ve shown the ability to play themselves out of bizarre situations and drafts before. They’re also capable of catching teams off guard with outside the box team compositions and executing them to an extremely high level which is something you like in an underdog in general. When first ballot hall-of-famer Deft, probably the second best to ever play the position only to Uzi, is the worst player on your team then you’re pretty damn good.
DragonX had the best kill-agnostic economy in the world for the vast majority of this year. They win games ugly. They aren’t completely blowing teams out or filling the highlight reels with plays. CvMax teams rarely play that way by design. Think of a defense and running game-centric American football team. They’re not going to blow teams out of the water 42-10 but might win 24-10 with more time of possession in what is just as decisive a victory even if it doesn’t show up as strongly on the score card.
As far as the X’s and O’s in this series go the main sticking point against DragonX is that they sometimes lose to themselves in the draft trying too hard to counterpick. They don’t have the consistent closing speed that DAMWON do which leads to less impressive differential statistics. I’d give DAMWON an edge in the top lane, although not as drastic as people seem to think. Jungle is also a small edge given that, similar to SofM for Suning or Kanavi for JDG, this metagame is absolutely perfect for Pyosik as four of his top five champions are at a premium right now including his namesake Kindred. Chovy has gotten the better of ShowMaker in this matchup this year even in losing games. Obviously the two of them play very different roles for their teams but it’s worth noting that I’d give the edge to DragonX here. The bottom lane is interesting. Ghost and BeryL have been excellent this year but very much prefer to counterpick and play to roam. For DragonX, Keria has had a very strong rookie season and has an argument for best support in the world. Deft has wavered at times but seems to be in good form for this tournament outside of that bizarre self-counterpicked Draven game. It’s fairly evenly matched with a slight edge to DAMWON overall. Slight.
The long story short here is that, while DAMWON might just be the best team in the world and one of the better teams we’ve ever seen, this number is downright disrespectful to an excellent DragonX team. Even simpler, these are two of the top six teams on the planet to most people and unless you think DAMWON really are far and away the best of that DragonX are complete frauds then it’d be stupid to lay anything on DAMWON here at these numbers. Ask yourself how much different a situation this is to, for example, JDG and Suning who play later this weekend where JDG are -164 favorites? I’d compare these two teams similarly. Before the tournament I had them roughly half a tier apart just like DragonX and DAMWON. Why the huge number? For numbers this big you need so many things to go exactly your way. There’s little to no wiggle room for favorites this big in this position. One out of seven matches resulted in a 3-0 last season and keep in mind the high variance in play this season in the game itself.
I’m the biggest DAMWON backer I know and this line is an absolute joke. Even if you don’t think DragonX win this the number is just too ridiculous. I could see this one turning into an absolute slugfest or who knows, maybe DAMWON have an off day. I’ll be backing DragonX in all sides markets. The +8.5 kill spread isn’t a bad play but given that I’ll have plenty of exposure to DragonX in different markets I’ll stick to map spreads this time.
Six out of eight games between these two teams went under 32:00. I don’t necessarily think that will be the case here but I do think the under is worth a look if you can find a good number like this on it.
I’d lean to the over on kill total here even though these teams have had a few lower kill outings in this tournament but I’d want a 24.5.
I was hoping to get better numbers on the “firsts” props but they’re actually priced without as much consideration to the moneyline here.
Spread: DragonX +2.5 maps @ -163 (6.52 units)(Bet365)
Spread: DragonX +1.5 maps @ +225 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Moneyline: DragonX +500 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ +800 (0.5 units) (Bet365)
Spread: DragonX -2.5 maps @ +2000 (0.25 units) (Nitrogen)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)(Nitrogen)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)(Nitrogen)
Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)(Nitrogen)
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)