Thursday, October 15th Recap

DAMWON Gaming vs DragonX

The first two games in this series were pretty close but there were two recurring themes over the course of it. The rookies, Pyosik and Keria, who had been so good all year long for DragonX might have finally started to feel some nerves as they made a lot of questionable plays throughout. The other was “overplaying” by DragonX. Everytime they had an advantage they got greedy and just went for a little bit too much and DAMWON punished it every single time. This was particularly the case early in game two and the entirety of game three.

DragonX had a superior scaling composition in game one but it did require a lot of execution as they had no real hard engage options just Lulu and triple AD (Jayce, Kindred, Caitlyn). DragonX kept it within a 2000 gold range until the soul point fifth dragon forced the action. They tried to make a pick on Kennen before it started, which failed, and DAMWON capitalized and the game was essentially over from this point as they went from infernal soul into baron.

Early in game two DragonX were already overplaying. The bot lane fight around the 8 minute mark was a perfect example of trying to get the most of out of something that was already over. Just take the won trade and back off you don’t need to invest all these recalls. Another question mark I have is the idea of “unlocking” a side lane with an early tower take against Twisted Fate or other global ultimates. Part of what makes Twisted Fate so strong is that in games like this where a team wants to play around a side lane champion like a Jax, Quinn, or Fiora or something of that sort it makes it extremely difficult to do so because that character will have to overextend. The way to beat Twisted Fate comps is to control the game and make it all about deathball or 5v5 team fighting. You do this by forcing dragon fights which DragonX had the option to do and opted instead to try to get Doran ahead and handshake for the first mountain drake which I thought was a poor decision. Again, weird erratic thinking and overplaying. Still, DragonX were able to keep this one close and won a few fights to keep this competitive even taking a pretty big lead in the mid game despite some bizarre decision making early.

Game three honestly felt like the tilt had just set in. I loved the Velkoz pick against the team comp that DAMWON had but as the broadcast mentioned a few times Velkoz need a controlled game state. He’s very poor at improvising or wheeling-and-dealing in skirmishes across the map. He wants to take advantage of his ridiculous zone control and AOE damage in confined spaces and utilizing his front line. This game got chaotic very quickly and DragonX never really settled it down they just kept playing into it and then overreaching (again, overplaying) to get advantages instead of taking what was given to them.

I had this match handicapped at roughly 67/33 based on my LCK objective/economy model and even if you baked in that DAMWON 3-0’d the LCK finals just could not see a justification for not making a play on DragonX here who were at an implied 16% to win this series. We got two close games and had two cracks at ending profitable but didn’t quite get there. I’d make this bet again no question but I’m also not entirely surprised at the result.

 

Daily Total: -10.45 units

 

 


 

World Championships 2020

Quarterfinals – Day Two

 

Suning Gaming +137 (+1.5 maps @ -175, +2.5 @ -667, -1.5 @ +263, -2.5 @ +728) vs

JD Gaming -167 (-1.5 maps @ +135, -2.5 maps @ +417, +1.5 maps @ -370, +2.5 maps @ -1667)

 

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -323 / under +235), 4.5 maps (over +166 / under -217)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread:  +2.5 @ -111 / -2.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Earlier this week I brought back an old Gelati Blog special and did a blind taste test based on some simple season long metrics with the idea of illustrating how strong and dangerous biases can be when you’re not aware of them. Anybody that’s been in the gambling space for any amount of time knows how important this concept is but I felt that it’d at least be interesting to bring up since I haven’t done an exercise like this with people in awhile.

Each of 9 applicants was asked rate themselves on a scale from -5 being very data/numbers driven to +5 being purely film/objectivity dirven in their analysis. The average score was -0.6. Each applicant was shown the set of statistics below comparing ten players and a few teams statistics. The only other info they were given was that these teams played in the same league. 8 out of 9 preferred the left team with each providing various caveats for why as obviously the numbers don’t tell the entire story in almost any situation. Only one preferred the right team.

(excuse my superior editing, also stats provided by GoL.gg)

The team on the left is Suning, the right is JDG. These numbers are from the beginning of Summer through the six games we’ve seen at worlds and including playoffs. Compared to JDG, Suning have +4 in their loss differential meaning that these stats include four more losses (lower win %). I found this very interesting and a number of the participants were at least a little surprised at their own opinion upon being presented with which team was which.

A lot of people seem to think this is an absolute slam dunk JDG spot. They’re one of the strongest teams in the world, made back-to-back LPL finals and won one of them and they have the sort of name brand value and star power you look for in a team competing on this level. Suning have a much different piblic perception and remind me quite a bit of Rogue in that it seems people just refuse to give this team any credit. For a lot of people, if they can’t see an edge in any position that completely rules out the likelihood of that team winning. To me, this is oversimplified analysis.

JDG don’t have a strong edge in any position. The most obvious candidate to a lot of people would be the mid lane with Angel vs Yagao but statistically they’ve performed very similarly with Angel actually being a significantly more efficient damage dealer doing “more with less” in terms of his economy ratings. The other thing to consider here is that we’ve seen time and time again over the course of this tournament that if the mid lane is going to be a lot of these neutral or non-interactive matchups and the game is going to be more about outer lanes and jungle that having the better mid laner matters much less than it typically would. It still matters just not as much.

The rest of the map is extremely close to me, as a matter of fact I’d personally prefer a player like Bin right now but that’s an unpopular opinion. The edge I’d typically give to LvMao over SwordArt is dulled by the fact that the current champion pool in the support position is quite literally four out of five of SwordArt’s all time best champions by performance. So if that’s the case why is everyone so automatic with JDG? Have they done something in this tournament to earn a massive upgrade from everyone? Is it because Suning got 3-0’d by TOP in playoffs? Maybe it’s JDG’s macro or team play that’s doing it? Or is it because people want JDG to win that’s clouding judgement here? How about that Suning tend to win uglier a lot of the time because they don’t blow people out?

I’m not exactly sure what Suning team everybody else has been watching or if this is just a name brand bias toward JDG but I think this series is damn near close to a coin flip and I seem to be the only one that thinks so. Going into this tournament I mentioned, regarding Suning and Fnatic, that if the mid lane isn’t a crucial as it typically is that these teams both receive direct upgrades to the top or 1.5 tier to join the likes of the JDG’s, TOP’s, and DAMWON’s of the world and that’s more or less shown to be the case so far. Both teams play exceptionally well around their side lanes and jungle and have top laners that can run away with a game in their carry performances. That’s the kind of team you want in this current metagame.

Other than big game experience and “in a vacuum” evaluation I don’t see why anyone could be absolutely convinced by JDG in this position. Now, with that in mind, this line is obviously much closer than the one we saw this morning with DragonX and DAMWON so we have to make a determination about whether or not there is value on either side of this which will depend on your model or handicap of the match. There are a lot of variations on this number with as low as -141 on JDG and as high as +137 on Suning. My objective/economy model grades this as a 54-46 matchup in favor of JDG which would imply some value on the underdogs here at the +137 number if I’m sticking purely to that. I do think JDG are a better team overall but I think that in this current metagame the difference is very slim. Suning also get side selection for the first map as the higher seed and could set the pace for the series in game one.

I’ll be making a play on Suning here. I think we’re getting a decent value on them at this price given my handicap and I’m giving them a slight bump for side choice and the fact that I think they’re positioned incredibly well in the current state of the game. This should be a slugfest.

 

Other Markets:

The games between good teams at this tournament have been very low scoring on average but I think these two teams present a chance to break that trend. That said, we’ve seen lower scoring affairs from both squads especially in the playoffs where their combined kills per game drops off dramatically compared to the regular season. I found a 27.5 at Bet365 which I’ll be taking the under on.

Most of these prop markets are actually priced very tightly or with extra juice in the split scenarios so there’s not a lot I like there. I do, however, like the over 12.5 towers taken at +141 as I think we should see at least a couple very close, very competitive games here.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -323 (6.46 units)

Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -175 (1.75 units)

Moneyline: Suning +137 (1 unit)

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +266 (0.5 units)

Spread: Suning -2.5 maps @ +728 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Prop: Map 1 total towers destroyed OVER 12.5 @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 total towers destroyed OVER 12.5 @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 total towers destroyed OVER 12.5 @ +141 (1 unit)

 

 

 

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(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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