Tuesday, June 23rd Recap
Dominus vs JD Gaming (Net: -0.67 units)
JDG completely smashed the first game and even styled a little bit running up the score. Game two wasn’t close but they took the disrespect a step further with ignite/smite Graves. Unfortunately for us Dominus picked up the backdoor cover with some final fountain shenanigans at the end of the game which ended 17-10 against our -7.5 spread. Brutal.
JDG look almost like they’ve reduced their practice time to reduce burnout. Obviously I can’t verify this but they went from a crisp, clean, well-oiled machine to sloppy, arrogant, and overzealous since returning from the Mid-Season Cup. Their macro is still fine and their drafts make sense it just looks like the players aren’t quite as sharp probably due to a reduced practice regiment. Again this is just speculation but I’d anticipate JDG will be fine and ramp up for a push in the second half. This is still an elite team but we probably can’t trust the rock solid performances we’ve come to expect at least for a little while.
Dominus… ooof… this team was just disrespected so hard and seemed completely powerless to do anything about the bully taking their lunch money. This team is really REALLY bad and the substitutions took a roster already lacking talent down a notch. I respect that the organization is taking a shot to see what they have in development but this is not looking good. That said, at some point soon, Dominus are going to lash out and put up a fight against someone. Eventually teams get tired of getting dunked on and disrespected. Whether they have the chops to really take many games is the debate but I wouldn’t expect depression before vengeance.
LGD vs Invictus (Net: -2.32 units)
Game one of this series was an absolute clown fiesta with awful performances by both teams. It was almost as if the teams met before the match and agreed to just have fun for a game and play solo queue. Game two and three were much more tense.
Invictus showed a different look in this series in games two and three opting out of winning lanes for scaling in game two and it worked. Rookie and TheShy managed to win very difficult lane matchups (Renekton vs Gangplank, Karma vs Lissandra) and eventually take over this game. Game three was the Quinn counter to blind Renekton, a great draft punish and it was going excellently pulling LGD’s comp around the map before a fatal, and uncharacteristic error by Rookie ended the game suddenly.
IG were in full control of game three and we saw a critical mistake from a player that has made very few of those, especially in 2020. It’s a rough beat for a guy that’s been absolutely incredible all year but it happens sometimes even to the great ones. Invictus simultaneously showed evolution and their old habits in the same series here. Game one they went back to Aatrox and were immediately reminded “this sucks.” Game three was very on brand, but this game two showed a possible new look for this team that I think could help them moving forward.
This series didn’t really move the needle at all for LGD to me. They’re still showing a lack of fundamentals that will make it difficult for me to trust them until they show otherwise. They constantly screw up neutral objective setups, aren’t diligent in clearing vision when and where it matters, and fail to identify their in-fight win conditions, and more importantly their opponents win conditions consistently. In a lot of ways they’re eerily similar to Invictus who also have similar problems at times.
I wanted to mention that this speaks to a larger issue I’ve been having with the LPL and something I’ll be taking into consideration more moving forward. LGD are a good team and they’re more than likely going to be a playoff team but they join a tier of LPL squads that are outside of the elite teams that seem much better than they actually are. They’re capable of taking games off of the top teams but severely lack consistency in pretty much everything they do and are perpetually going to be overrated. Eventually, technique and solid fundamentals will matter even if we haven’t seen it bite them in the ass yet. This is going to come back to haunt all of these teams at some point and it’s a classic example of why you can’t be results oriented, especially when evaluating a team long term.
LPL Total: -2.99 units
Daily Total Net: -2.99 units
Another rough one. JDG screwing around cost us the cover there and Rookie with a once a year level mistake took that moneyline away from us too. C’est la vie. The Summer in the LPL is always difficult and unpredictable but now that we’re getting a solid sample size and a lot of film on these teams my overall picture of the league is starting to take form. As always, wild stuff will happen but I now have a much stronger sense of the real players, the frauds, and those I expect will improve and implode.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 4 – Day 3
OMG +124 (+1.5 @ -244, -1.,5 @ +325) vs
LNG Esports -159 (-1.5 @ +185)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -109 / -2.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
LNG – Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
Trends:
LNG have yet to be favorites this season
LNG are 2-2 (2-2 ATS) as underdogs
LNG are 5-4 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone under in 6 out of 9 LNG games
LNG have scored first blood in 7 out of 9 games
OMG are 0-3 (1-2 ATS) as underdogs (1-4, 2-3 ATS overall)
OMG are 4-3 against the kill spread as underdogs (6-6 overall)
Kill totals have gone over in 5 out of 7 OMG games as underdogs (7 out of 10 overall)
This is a really weird match to handicap because LNG have been a bit of an enigma this season. After opening with a competitive 0-2 loss to Suning, they managed to rattle off back-to-back wins against FunPlus Phoenix and Royal Never Give Up taking 4 out of 5 games in the process. They were decisively destroyed by eStar the match after. So who exactly is LNG?
LNG are very much the same team they were last season. They aren’t a very proactive team, prefer to draft scaling, and struggle to create opportunity on their own which often requires enemy mistakes. In every single one of their wins this season they’ve had leads spoon-fed to them often through botched execution. They lead the league in first blood percentage getting it in 7 out of 9 games but almost all of them were not engineered by LNG. Looking at their gold differentials reveals an average of 956 gold at 10 minutes but in two of their four wins by less than 600 gold. First blood awards 400.
The point I’m getting at is that LNG are being overrated because of the quality of the opponents they’ve defeated. Their play has not warranted their recognition. That said, this is still a team that is able to capitalize on a mistake.
Enter OMG.
OMG have been downright dreadful this season but are coming off of a win against the league’s worst team in Dominus who used substitutes for the match. They are probably the second or third worst team in the LPL. OMG’s primary issue is their lack of proactivity as they prefer to play a slower more lane-centric style. Against superior individual competition they struggle but against superior team work, particularly good tempo and map play, they completely fall apart.
This is a match between two teams that prefer to let the game come to them. Both are extremely risk averse. In a metagame with great split pushers, great scaling options in every lane, and hyper carry marksmen, most team compositions can duke it out in a late game fight. Unless there is a drastic difference on either side it more or less comes down to a coin flip.
As bad as OMG have been, I don’t trust either team to get a lot done early in this game and expect these will be slow, low scoring, and more evenly matched games than people think. The markets have somewhat indicated this as well with LNG moving down from -180 favorites just yesterday.
I don’t think either team has a distinct advantage anywhere on the map. You could argue Light vs Smlz or Icon over Maple but that’s grasping at straws. This is an even matchup.
Totals:
cCKPG: 25.35
Time-projected: 24.75
Implied-Odds: 22.56
Underdog Win: 24.29
“G” Projected Total: 24.22
LNG have had some inflated kill total games due to the competition they’ve faced being rather bloody so far this season. They’re averaging a combined kills per game of 25.25. OMG have had a similar road but as I mentioned earlier, neither of these teams are proactive and tend to let the game come to them. This is going to be a low scoring affair. I love the under as one of my favorite selections on the slate on Wednesday.
Other Markets:
My Picks:
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -244 (1.22 units)
Moneyline: OMG +124 (0.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +325 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
BiliBili Gaming +756 (+1.5 @ +205, -1.5 @ +1022) vs
TOP Esports -1667 (-1.5 @ -270)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -104 / under -125)
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -110 / -9.5 @ -119
Time Total: OTB
BLG – Kingen, l3est16, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
Trends:
TOP are 4-0, 3-1 against the map spread as favorites
TOP are 4-5 against the kill spread as favorites
TOP have gone over their team total kills in 6 out of 9 games
Time totals have gone under in 6 out of 9 TOP games
BiliBili are 1-3, 2-2 against the map spread as underdogs
BiliBili are 3-7 against the kill spread as underdogs
Kill totals have gone under in 8 out of 10 BLG games
Time totals have gone under in 7 out of 10 BLG games
There’s really not a lot to discuss here from a sides perspective. It has been rumored that there are internal conflicts going within BiliBili with some unsavory accusations regarding FoFo’s conduct and teammates being outspoken about it and benched (Meteor and Jinjiao). It’s safe to say the BiliBili are officially in dumpster fire mode. Meanwhile, TOP look like the best team on the planet.
The numbers for this series are kind of nuts. 17.5 is the highest team kill total so far in Summer in the major regions. The spread of 9.5 is one of the highest we’ve seen as well. I’ll be taking the BiliBili kill spreads for a half stake. TOP have a surprisingly low AMOV for an elite LPL team averaging only 8.375 kills over their opponents in victories and only reaching double digits three times which includes matches against RW and OMG. There’s a chance we see them style a bit in this spot but given each team’s propensity for going under the kill total, really high spreads like this one are appealing.
Other markets:
cCKPG: 26.45
Time-projected: 27.8
Implied-Odds: 25.14
Underdog Win: 29.41
“G” Projected Total: 26.46
This projected number is inflated due to a few crazy high combined kill games from TOP but it’s aligned with the books 26.5 total. I’ll be taking the under in this spot. BLG’s kill per loss is 5.7, TOP’s kill per win is 18.97 which projects to 24.66 which looks more in line with where I’d expect this to end up.
My Picks:
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 26.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 BLG +9.5 kills @ -104 (1.04 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 BLG +9.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 1
While most of my handicapping puts a heavier weight on game film, it’s especially so early in the season before we have a lot of data and context for that data for modeling purposes.
Here are some trends so far in the LCK through one week
Favorites are 7-3, but 3-7 against the map spread
One underdog has 2-0’d.
In 26 games:
Kill spreads are 15-11 to the favorites
Kill totals are 15-11 to the over
Time totals (assuming 33:00) are 15-11 to the over
Favorites have gone over their team total in 16 out of 26 tries
Underdogs have gone over their team total in 15 out of 26 tries
Average kills per game: 25
Average game time: 33:13
Overall the LCK has been higher scoring primarily due to the introduction of the new look DAMWON Gaming and Team Dynamics as well as a complete over fiesta in the Hanwha/APK series. I do think these numbers will come back down significantly and that we should take advantage while the totals are inflated in those markets as well as in kill spreads, particularly for underdogs.
Team Dynamics -112 (-1.5 @ +222) vs
SeolHaeOne Prince (APK) -112 (+1.5 @ -303, -1.5 @ +222)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ +122 / +4.5 @ -159
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
This opened at even money and has stayed put since lines opened on Sunday.
Team Dynamics have really impressed on film. They have a surprisingly mature game sense for a team that’s brand new to the league which somewhat makes sense given the few veterans on the roster but is nonetheless impressive. TD identify windows of opportunity both from ahead and behind, play with excellent pace, have shown very few mechanical deficiencies so far, and, perhaps most importantly, they understand good macro play and decision making. So far, no moment has been too big or too stressful for them and they’ve made a lot of great choices with very little hesitation. They have the decisiveness of a confident young team with the game sense and macro understanding of a veteran team. I think this team is actually really good and the only thing holding them back will be that the middle and top of the table in Korea are also excellent.
SeolHaeOne Prince are going to be a bad team. I said it coming into the season and so far I’ve seen nothing but red flags on film. Nothing they are doing makes sense with anything else they’re doing. They’ll play overly aggressive in situations where they absolutely do not need to and when they have a lead have show no structure or procedure in utilizing it whatsoever. APK/SP are playing glorified solo queue and that’s not a way to win games in the LCK. I went off about it last week but the series with Hanwha Life might have been the single worst series of professional Korean LOL I’ve watched in probably seven or more years since the old OGN play-in tournament days. It was embarrassing for both squads. This team looks like a clear 10th place team to me and a tier below everyone except maybe Hanwha, who I expect to at least turn it around a little.
People are going to be skeptical to go heavy in a spot like this because Team Dynamics are a new and relatively unknown quantity but I’ll be firing on them. I’ve seen nothing on tape to say this isn’t a good LOL team. Even the rookies aren’t making “rookie mistakes.” APK were also darling underdogs and overachievers last season vastly exceeding expectations and expected win totals. This is a slam dunk Dynamics bet to me.
Totals:
While I expect the overall bloodiness of the LCK to settle back down to a normal number, both of these teams have played exceptionally high kill games relative to normal LCK expectations so far. APK tend to throw caution to the wind and then throw themselves into it as well. I’d expect an over in this match.
Other Markets:
I’m confident in Team Dynamics and you can get plus money on the 4.5 kill spread but I’m going to stick to the moneyline and map spread just in case these are closer-to-the-vest, lower-scoring games.
My Picks:
Moneyline: Dynamics -112 (1.12 units)
Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +222 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
KT Rolster -238 (-1.5 maps @ +130) vs
Hanwha Life Esports +180 (+1.5 @ -167, -1.5 @ +408)
Kill Total: 23.5
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ +103 / +5.5 @ -133
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
If you consider just how good Team Dynamics have looked, that Gen.G are still very good, and that KT Rolster are still figuring out exactly which roster configuration they’re going to go with, it’s no surprise to see KT start off with a few losses. They already looked leaps and bounds better against Gen.G and look more like what I’d anticipated going into the season.
Hanwha Life are on dumpster fire alert. I really do hope I’m wrong about this team but it looks like the Viper/Lehends show in similar fashion to APK with Hybrid and Secret last season. I think this team will likely improve from the humiliating showing against APK and whooping handed to them by T1 (the game two win was cheeky but watch that game, they were dominated and T1 made a weird mistake). The question is going to be if and when that improvement happens as well as how quickly. It’s a marksmen centric metagame which favors Viper and Lehends both but if this team is going to be predictable and outclassed elsewhere while also having macro and chemistry issues then I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a quick turnaround from Hanwha.
Weirdly enough the market actually agrees with me for a change. KT Rolster should be favored by more than this here but I’m frankly shocked that this isn’t a sub 200 line given the 1-4 start and Hanwha stealing a game from T1.
Totals:
I’d expect these two teams to settle back into a more typical LCK-style game pace and that we get an under. 23.5 is below the league average but when you compare this to the previous series TD vs APK it’s laughable that we’re getting the same total. I’ll be a half stake on the under even at this, relative to league average, low total.
Other Markets:
My Picks:
Moneyline: KT Rolster -238 (2.38 units)
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +130 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
