Tuesday June 16th Recap
LGD vs Dominus (Net: +1.1386 units)
We just barely missed on cashing both unders here which could have covered most of the losses from the fiasco that was the next series (see below).
To me this series raised even more red flags for LGD. They fail to properly set up around objectives as evidenced multiple times in this series. Another thing that’s been bugging me is a fundamental lack of understanding from certain players regarding their role in a team composition or a specific game. This applies to a lot of LPL teams. In this series, DMO’s Natural Camille ulted Ornn several times, had at least one opportunity to on Kassadin after he’d popped a Zhonya’s and had a number of other curious decisions in that game. This isn’t the first time.
Dominus should have won the first game off of a mountain soul. There’s no guaranteeing that they would have but they were in a good position to do so and just failed to execute on a very fundamental level. It took that lack of understanding and poor execution for LGD to win that game. Their setups in game two left a lot to be desired as well.
Overall I just haven’t been impressed at all with LGD. I was more on the bearish side going into the season but willing to be proven wrong and thought this team would be challenging for a playoff spot. I’m not so sure now. There’s a chance they can get better but I’ve seen enough basic concepts that just aren’t there and a lot of poor decision making that have substantially downgraded my outlook for this team in the short term.
TOP vs OMG (Net: -2.62 units)
Can’t say I saw that one coming but again, this is the LPL. Due to the nature of how these games played out our under whiffed entirely but I do still think it was the correct play under the assumption of a TOP victory. This doesn’t really move the needle on TOP for me. JackeyLove had a bad series. It’s happened before and it’ll probably happen again. 369 hard carried which was awesome. OMG showed up to play and punched them in the mouth nearly stealing this series outright. The more interesting thing is going to be how OMG respond to this.
LPL Total: -1.4814 units
Daily Total Net: -1.4814 units
Look-ahead selection: Saturday TOP -1.5 maps vs LGD @ -111 (1.11 units)
This is primarily a play against LGD who look like a team that’s just playing without any core understanding of how to navigate games or win conditions. TOP may have looked sloppy against OMG but I not only think that’s a wakeup call but that we shouldn’t downgrade them just because of an off day. LGD’s problems appear more deep-rooted and will take time to iron out. Unfortunately for them they’re running into arguably the best team in the world on Saturday. I’ll take the favorites before this line gets out of hand closer to game time.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 3
Overall LPL Trends:
8 out of 24 matches have gone to a third map
Favorites are 16-8 (13-11 ATS) this season
Favorites are 29-27 against the kill spread
Invictus Gaming -417 (-1.5 maps @ -109) vs
Rogue Warriors +290 (+1.5 maps @ -118, -1.5 @ +662)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -116 / +6.5 @ -112
Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -108)
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
RW – Holder, Youdang, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
These teams have only played three matches total
Invictus won the Spring meeting 2-1 as -2564 favorites (lol)
Invictus finally came back to life against Suning to get a much needed win off the back of yet another superstar performance by Rookie. Rogue Warriors have only played their one match against TOP in which they should have won (read: won) game one against TOP only to be swiftly annihilated in game two.
Rogue are typically an excellent “punch up” underdog. While they were only 6-7 outright as underdogs, they were an impressive 9-4 against the map spread including two series sweeps. Conversely, Invictus were 13-2 outright but a less impressive 8-7 against the spread in Spring.
Stylistically, Rogue Warriors love to take the fight to you. They’re an extremely aggressive team and as we discussed in the previous Invictus match, sometimes that can be just what the doctor ordered for a team that I wish would get themselves out of lane and back toward their previous ways. Invictus still have a lot of problems but with Wuming starting in the mid lane for Rogue Warriors I’m a little less confident than I normally would be. There’s a chance they’ve got something weird cooked up so there’s that going for you if you’re backing the dogs.
I’ll be taking a half stake underdog special here. The odds have actually moved toward Invictus after their win against Suning but given this team’s track record over the past two months it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them turn back into a pumpkin again.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 27.375 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 28.0 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 27.32 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Rogue Warriors, 29.04 kills.
The last meeting between these two was a three game series with an average of 45 kills per game…. You read that right. Invictus actually won with fewer kills in the series as Rogue Warriors scored 74 kills vs Invictus’ 62. I know unders have been the way to go this season but RW averaged over a kill per minute combined against TOP in their first series and Invictus will absolutely indulge them. Last season this total would have been 28.5.
Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -118 (1.18 units)
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +290 (0.5 units)
Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +662 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 28.5 @ +116 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 29.5 @ +136 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 30.5 @ +159 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 28.5 @ +108 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 29.5 @ +127 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 30.5 @ +149 (0.1 units)
EDward Gaming -217 (-1.5 maps @ +147) vs
Suning Gaming +166 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +416)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -101 / +4.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -111 / under -118)
EDG – Aodi, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
Suning are 4-5 against the kill spread this season
Kill totals have gone under in 6 out of 9 Suning games
Kill totals have gone under in 3 out of 5 EDG games
We talked a fair amount about Suning on the podcast last night. Coming into the season I thought they’d be due for some positive regression from last season but they got a little bit too much too fast with wins against LNG and WE and are now coming back to earth a bit. You could argue how good Team WE are but upon facing Invictus and JDG, Suning crumbled beneath the pressure (although game two vs IG was close). EDG aren’t quite on that level but have proven that they are a good, consistent team.
We’re also getting the return of Jiejie and while I’ve loved the chemistry JunJia and Aodi have built, Jiejie is an overall stronger player and is well-suited to play in this current metagame.
Speaking of the metagame, it’s a great environment for how both of these teams like to play I just think EDG have stronger players across the board and better fundamentals as a team. EDG should take care of business here.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 26.27 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 22.82 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 25.25 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Suning, 31.25 kills.
Suning tend to be on the bloodier side of things even if they aren’t quite in the eStar/WE echelon. They’ve also played fellow bloody teams Team WE and to a lesser extent Invictus/JDG. Their series against LNG wasn’t. My totals blend has this at 24.78 implying that this number is just about right so we’ll pass on the total.
Moneyline: EDG -217 (1.085 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +147 (0.5 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 1
Early on in the LCK it will be much more evaluation than data focused handicapping since a few of these teams have made substantial changes. With that said, there are a few trends from last season to consider:
Favorites went 61-29 straight up but were only 34-56 against the map spread in Spring
There were 14 underdog 2-0’s
In 90 matches, only 42 went to a third map
“Small” favorites of -193 or smaller were 16-9 but a putrid 6-19 against the map spread
In the first 20 matches, only four underdogs won outright but 12 covered the spread.
In the first half (45) of the season only 17 favorites covered the spread
Typically the LCK has been a region dominated by favorites and in “clean” (2-0) fashion. By design, the top LCK teams play a very by-the-book macro-focused style that focuses on minimizing mistakes and closing windows for your opponent. That still remained true last season but there were a lot more risks taken by the good teams and the “elite” three teams skewed a lot of these numbers since the middle of the table wasn’t quite as strong as it normally is.
Overall, last season was one of the stranger LCK seasons in my memory. There’s a strong likelihood that the pandemic’s effects of forcing remote play, disrupting the schedule for multiple weeks, and condensing the schedule had a lot to do with this. That said, I do think the middle of the standings will be significantly improved and provide a much more competitive environment. The numbers might not be too far off from what we saw last season even if it feels very different.
Afreeca Freecs -154 (-1.5 maps @ +193) vs
Sandbox Gaming +120 (+1.5 maps @ -256, -1.5 @ +313)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -115 / +2.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
Afreeca were 6-5 as favorites last season but only 2-9 ATS
Sandbox were 2-9 as underdogs last season and 6-5 ATS including two 2-0’s
Each team took a series in the regular season Afreeca 2-1 in the first, Sandbox 2-0 in the second
In five games against each other last season these teams averaged 22.2 kills per game
This is going to be a good litmus test for both teams. Sandbox will be without new coach YamatoCannon physically in the stadium for this match but he has been working remotely with the team according to his Twitter. Afreeca had an incredibly disappointing Spring and it very much looked like some players “checked out” after the mid lane situation became very apparently dire. There isn’t a new mid laner.
While I’m tempted by the allure of the unknown with Sandbox, I also think Afreeca will come into this match much more motivated than we saw for most of the second half of the season so it should be a competitive series. Watching Kiin and Summit duke it out is always a pleasure.
I’ll be taking an “underdog special” here but it’s important to mention that it’s agnostic to my optimism for Sandbox. Playing underdogs early in the season is generally a good and profitable idea. You get good value on them and as I’ve discussed in the past, these teams have had weeks/months to prepare for this first week of matches with very little film on one another outside of scrims if they’ve had them. Weird things can happen.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 22.5 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 21.89 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 22.27 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Sandbox, 22.42 kills.
The historic data suggests that this number is dead on and the worldwide data through a couple of weeks in Summer supports that. What’s interesting is that the LCK could go either way to me. Afreeca are a team that I feel should embrace a Team WE-style approach to the game but I’m not confident that they will. Early last season they were one of the premier up-tempo teams in the world before falling off of a cliff. Sandbox could also look like a much different team under new coaching. I’d lean toward the over but I’m going to be taking a wait and see approach with both of these squads.
Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ -256 (2.56 units)
Moneyline: Sandbox +120 (0.5 units)
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +312 (0.25 units)
T1 -175 (-1.5 maps @ +170) vs
DragonX +137 (+1.5 maps @ -222, -1.5 maps @ +346)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -118 / +3.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
T1 were 11-4 as favorites in the regular season, 9-6 ATS
DRX were only underdogs vs T1 and Gen.G last season, including playoffs they were 1-3 (2-2 ATS)
T1 won all three meetings last season
In the 9 games they played against each other last season these teams averaged 19.55 CKPG
I have these two teams evenly matched. I’ve had these two teams evenly matched. I like DragonX quite a bit. I jumped on this when these lines came out a few weeks ago and got DragonX at +164 but I’d take either team at any plus money amount in this spot. I especially love that it’s DragonX with the revenge narrative. T1 knocked them out of playoffs and they just had a brutal exit from the Mid-Season Cup. DragonX are going to be hyper motivated for this match.
The counter argument is that T1 have yet to lose a series to Gen.G or DragonX this year. A perfect 4-0 in best-of-three and 2-0 in best-of-five playoffs. I think that streak comes to an end. I’ll take the dogs.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 21.1 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 21.92 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 21.42 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case DragonX, 23.23 kills.
You could go either way on this total. I, for one, think this will be a particularly chippy matchup as these two teams are building a bit of a rivalry but they both tend to win so cleanly that this could easily turn into two or three extremely lopsided stomps. I’m going to pass but lean over since 21.5 is a low total (it’s gone under 2 out of 3 in the 3 appearances that low this season).
Moneyline: DragonX +137 (1 unit)
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ +346 (0.5 units)
I’ll see you all tomorrow!