Tuesday, July 7th Recap
Vici vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +1.12 units)
Suning vs eStar (Net: -1.0 units)
LPL Total: +0.12 units
Rarely do I bunch matches together but this entire day in all of its bizarre glory can only be summed up with the fact that overall there was some extremely poor LOL played by all four teams this morning.
Things to note in each series:
1) NONE of these teams can be trusted with a lead including Vici who have actually been surprisingly good with them all year.
2) Vici’s drafts look to be improving quite a bit with Zeka in at mid lane and man oh man did he put in a huge carry performance this morning.
3) Why can’t anyone hit Ashe arrows….
4) eStar played their worst series of the season. Constant miscommunications, senseless teleport plays, poor target selection. They were off today. Normally they’re at least in sync even if they’re wrong.
5) The LPL has about five good macro teams, the rest are extremely sketchy.
6) Rogue Warriors played their best series of the season and still lost to Vici.
This was a clown fiesta and I feel a little lucky to have escaped even.
Daily Total Net: +0.12 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 3
LNG +338 (+1.5 maps @ +100, -1.5 @ +785) vs
Victory Five -476 (-1.5 maps @ -127)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -120 / -7.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)
LNG – Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Iwandy
V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod
Victory Five are 2-0, 1-1 against the map spread as favorites (BLG, eStar)
Victory Five are 4-1 against the kill spread as favorites
LNG are 2-4, 3-3 against the map spread as underdogs
LNG are 6-8 against the kill spread as underdogs
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 14 LNG games
This line opened at LNG +277 / Victory Five -417 and stayed there until last night. Money or an adjustment had to have come in this morning and you know what? It makes sense.
My economy/objective model actually has LNG as the worst team in the LPL and one of the worst teams in the four major leagues. They’re near dead last in almost every economy metric except for post-20 minute gold differential where they’re still worse than everyone except for Rogue Warriors and BiliBili. Their redeeming characteristic is their dragon control % which ranks them 11th and that’s their best measurable.
The same model has Victory Five as the second best team in the LPL with only TOP Esports ahead of them (by a mile I might add). They’re towards the top of the league in everything besides herald control because who needs that when you’re diving and taking the tower anyway? Victory Five have continued to improve as the season has gone on and don’t appear to be any sort of fluke. Their film is excellent. Clear, concise decision making, efficient use of time, appropriate leverage of their power spikes and positioning and an overall pace of play that’s leaving a lot of teams in the dust. Victory Five are the real deal.
I actually think we’re getting a value here even though this number has been bet up and we’ve lost a little bit. The gap between these two teams is extremely large at the moment and other than betting on a letdown spot there is absolutely no justification for LNG. Stylistically, V5 is a nightmare for LNG who are slow to bring a fight to anyone if they do at all and routinely cede objective after objective without a fight. I’d expect that they get up for this game but I’ve said that for the last few and there hasn’t been much of a change. V5 roll.
Odds Weighted: 21.84
Underdog Win: 25.4
“G” Projected Total: 22.15 kills
Never in a million years did I ever think I’d be taking unders on V5 games but here we are. This team doesn’t appear to be one to clown around. Despite their friendly, joking demeanor, they have taken care of business this season smashing just about everyone without a lot of nonsense going on.
V5 game times: 30.93 / 31.91 / 28.64 (average / in wins / in losses)
LNG game times: 31.86 / 34.72 / 30.77 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.39 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.41 minutes
This looks close but this is based on average times over the course of the season. V5 have gone under 32 minutes in 13 out of 20 games including their past 8 games in a row. For whatever reason my books are only offering 33:00 juiced on game two (looking through game two times across the league it makes sense but not for these teams). I’m still taking it.
First Blood: V5 29.41% / LNG 50%
First Tower: V5 58.82% / LNG 27.77%
First Dragon: V5 58.82% / LNG 38.88%
First Herald: V5 47.05% / LNG 44.44%
In 11 out of 20 V5 games there have been 4 or fewer dragons . Given the assumed under game time and the domination that I’m expecting here I think getting +116 on the under 4.5 drakes is actually a nice value. LNG first herald at +107 is tempting given the spread here but it’s not enough value to justify for me so I’ll pass there. First blood similar. First tower similar.
Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ -103 (1.03 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)
Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +119 (1 unit)
BiliBili Gaming +369 (+1.5 maps @ +109, -1.5 @ +803) vs
Invictus Gaming -556 (-1.5 maps @ -139)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -116 / -7.5 @ -112
Time Total: 32:00 (over +120 / under -156)
BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Reheal
BiliBili are 2-4, 3-3 against the map spread as underdogs this season
BiliBili are 6-8 against the kill spread as underdogs
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 14 BLG games
Time totals have gone UNDER in 10 out of 14 BLG games
Invictus are 4-2, 2-4 against the map spread as favorites this season
Invictus are 8-7 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 15 games where IG were favorites
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 15 games where IG were favorites
Reheal is getting the start at support for Invictus. This matters but not really enough in the grand scheme of things. He was fine in his first appearance despite the loss. It wasn’t really his fault.
The interesting part about this series is that BiliBili brought back Meteor in their last series and look significantly better. The heart and soul of this team was back and despite the rumors of off-rift turmoil between him and FoFo, the latter elevated his performance and played arguably his best series of the split. The catch is that it was against LNG so how much can we really take from it? BLG are still in the bottom tier of teams in the league based on my economy/objective model and their film doesn’t really influence that in enough of way where I can disagree with it. They’ve been bad.
Invictus, for as frustrating as they are, have been utterly dominant from a statistics standpoint. Other than their league worst herald control %, Invictus trail only TOP in most economy metrics and they’re surprisingly close for a team with as many losses as they’ve had. They’ve also done this with only a 27% first blood rate so they haven’t had that extra gold to lean on early. A big part of this is that Invictus tend to completely destroy in the games they win. In the games they lose, they’re often based on macro mistakes or weird drafts but their economy never falters. Their post-20 minute gold differential is 2nd best in the league by a long shot over JDG and V5 which is surprising given that many people feel they fall off later when the mistakes happen.
Historically this would be a spot to fade the IG sweep. This team has a tendency to get too weird or play down to their competition but that hasn’t been the case in 2020. Similar to the first series there is almost multiple orders of magnitude difference between these teams. Even if we bake in some regression both ways especially from the reintroduction of Meteor back to the BLG lineup, it’s still a massive advantage for Invictus. I wouldn’t be surprised to see BLG take a game but I do think there’s still value in this number to sweep. IG have been steadily improving and their drafts are significantly better than they were early this season and in Spring.
Underdog Win: 23.1
“G” Projected Total: 23.0 kills
Number is close enough. I’ll pass.
IG game times: 31.09 / 28.96 / 34.16 (average / in wins / in losses)
BLG game times: 30.16 / 30.26 / 30.12 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 30.63 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.07 minutes
Invictus have only gone over 32 minutes 7 out of 22 games this season. BiliBili 5 out of 14 games.
Even with the juice there’s still an edge on this number so we’re going to lay the money with the under. Invictus tend to lose quickly even when they do lose and their wins have been consistently under the 30 minute mark. Bilibili have also tended to win quickly. Dating back to last season with Meteor in the lineup, they often would snowball off of a jungle pick like Olaf in their wins.
First Blood: IG 27.27% / BLG 35.71%
First Tower: IG 54.54% / BLG 35.71%
First Dragon: IG 68.18% / BLG 50%
First Herald: IG 31.81% / BLG 50%
The standout here is BiliBili first herald since IG has been one of the worst teams in the four major regions about capturing it. They apparently just don’t care. They’re playing like it was never added to the game and still getting first tower more than 54% of the time. Invictus have captured first herald in 5 out of their last 7 matches so maybe they’re shifting focus? I’ll pass on this one. If they’re shifting focus and were able to get first tower at the rate they did without a lot of heralds, I can’t imagine how good they’ll be with it unfortunately the juice is a little rich there.
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -139 (1.39 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -164 (1.64 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 4 – Day 1
LCK Trends (through three weeks)
Favorites are 25-5 straight up and 18-12 against the map spread this season
Favorites are 46-25 against the kill spread
Favorites are 19-11 against the kill spread in game ones
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 37 out of 71 games
Time totals have gone UNDER in 39 out of 71 games
Favorites have covered their team total in 41 out of 71 games
Underdogs have covered their team total in 34 out of 71 games
DragonX -909 (-1.5 maps @ -172) vs
KT Rolster +540 (+1.5 maps @ +134, -1.5 @ +1300)
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -112 / +8.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
KT Rolster are 0-3, 1-2 against the map spread as underdogs (vs Gen.G, DAMWON, Afreeca)
KT Rolster are 2-5 against the kill spread as underdogs
DragonX are 5-0, 3-2 against the map spread as favorites (losses vs Gen.G and Sandbox)
DragonX are 6-6 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill Totals are 6-6 to the over-under in DRX games
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 7 out of 12 DRX games
The underdog has only covered their team total in 4 out of 12 games vs DRX
I wrote in my Monday article recapping the KT/Afreeca series that KT were completely crippled by their game one draft and still played a close and competitive game against Afreeca. Game two was a better draft but Afreeca had an even better one. I wrote that “Afreeca are playing really well right now. There were a lot of things KT could have done better in this series but they didn’t play poorly by any means and did a much better job than the box score shows.” I still believe this to be the case. This team is going to continue to improve. This league might be too competitive for them to realistically make a deep playoff run again but I absolutely would not rule out a second half KT that is significantly better than what we’ve seen so far which hasn’t even been bad.
DragonX are… I mean they’re ridiculously good. I don’t really know what else to say here. They actually didn’t clown around against SeolHaeOne either. They have a better gold differential at 10 than any LPL team including TOP (by a mile), and are doing so with only a 40% first blood rate. They’re creative, lane dominant, versatile, have the individual chops to simply outplay you and other than a few odd games here and there where they go a little too far off the deep end, look like a world championship contender.
So do we see enough from KT to take a game here is the question. I’m bullish on KT Rolster moving forward but DRX are on a completely different level and we saw what happened when KT faced DWG…
I think DragonX roll here.
Odds Weighted: 22.05
Underdog Win: 22.15
“G” Projected Total: 22.33 kills
Over is the play here.
DRX game times: 31.65 / 31.44 / 32.49 (average / in wins / in losses)
KT game times: 31.66 / 33.01 / 30.82 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.65 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.74 minutes
No markets offered but probably a pass unless a 33 with low vig is floated.
First Blood: DRX 40% / KT 69.23%
First Tower: DRX 40% / KT 40%
First Dragon: DRX 66.66% / KT 53.33%
First Herald: DRX 40% / KT 46.16%
KT first blood at only -109 is a play I’ll be making. KT first dragon sticks out but given DRX’s focus on it over other things I’ll be passing there. There have been 4 or fewer dragons slain in 8 out of 15 DRX games but only 4 out of 15 KT games. I’ll take the under at plus money. Three out of four instances of KT’s were against good teams (TD, DWG).
I’ll be taking the KT first towers as well given the nice odds we’re getting there.
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -172 (1.72 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first blood @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first blood @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +108 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +103 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 KT first tower @ +129 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 KT first tower @ +128 (1 unit)
Hanwha Life Esports +137 (+1.5 maps @ -238, -1.5 @ +351) vs
SANDBOX Gaming -175 (-1.5 maps @ +182)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -118 / -3.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
Sandbox haven’t been favored this season.
Sandbox are 1-5, 2-4 against the map spread as underdogs
Sandbox are 6-8 against the kill spread
Hanwha Life are 0-5, 1-4 against the map spread as underdogs (0-1, 0-1 as favorites vs SP)
Hanwha Life are 3-11 against the kill spread in all games
Both of these teams have had really rough starts but Sandbox managed to get their first win an a fairly big upset against Team Dynamics in their last match. Admittedly, Team Dynamics looked a little off their game compared to what we’ve seen so far this season but Sandbox did look much improved and this confidence booster was probably great for them and YamatoCannon who earned his first win as the first foreign head coach in the LCK. Hanwha continue to look absolutely dreadful. This has to be do-or-die mode for them. If not I just don’t see how Viper and Lehends can stay motivated to continue playing with this team.
Despite Hanwha’s awful performance this season, the economy/objective model has these teams more or less dead even (and pretty bad). I usually like taking the dog in these Toilet Bowl situations anyway but when the numbers say they’re even and I also happen to think that this is going to be a do-or-die, break out all the stops and tricks type match for Hanwha I’d have to imagine they’ll have their best showing in this match. The counterargument is that the series they played against SeolHaeOne certainly wasn’t and that was arguably the worst series of league to watch this entire calendar year (those matches in the LPL this morning gave it a run though…).
I’m going to hold my nose and take Hanwha here. I don’t think they’re a good team but Sandbox don’t deserve to be laying -175 to anybody not after a single win like that. This team also still has issues albeit far fewer and less obvious. Bottom lane vs the rest of the map. This should be closer to even money.
Odds Weighted: 22.99
Underdog Win: 26.28
“G” Projected Total: 23.64 kills
I could see a number of situations where this game goes over. Neither of these teams have had particularly clean execution and could see sloppy scores in wins or losses. I like the over.
HLE game times: 31.72 / 36.73 / 30.89 (average / in wins / in losses)
SB game times: 30.92 / 31.91 / 30.65 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.32 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.32 minutes
No markets available but I’d probably lean to an over 32. I think these two teams might play a sloppy slugfest like we saw between SP and HLE. Or it’ll be boring and overly conservative since they both need the wins.
First Blood: SB 28.57% / HLE 35.71%
First Tower: SB 46.66% / HLE 26.66%
First Dragon: SB 46.66% / HLE 40%
First Herald: SB 50% / HLE 42.86%
Most of these are either juiced or overpriced. The only thing I’ll be playing is Hanwha first herald on map one because it’s weirdly 30 point swing on map two.
Spread: Hanwha +1.5 maps @ -238 (2.38 units)
Moneyline: Hanwha +137 (0.5 units)
Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +351 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Prop: Map 1 Hanwha first herald @ +111 (1 unit)