Tuesday, July 28th Recap
BiliBili vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +12.895 units)
Some of Rogue Warriors issues came to light here. BiliBili were able to either get ahead enough that it didn’t matter that RW wanted to fight into them or they just didn’t give them good windows of opportunity which left them toothless in defeat. Game two BiliBili beat an ocean soul which is usually a big deal but with a 7k+ gold lead at that time it didn’t matter and BiliBili ended up closing the game out. FoFo destroyed Wuming in this series but that was just part of the equation.
Other than hedge situations like LCK finals last season, this was my biggest individual match score of the year. My higher confidence plays have been pretty unlucky over the course of this year so I’m glad I didn’t back down from this one for bad reasons. Variance can be a real bitch but trust your process and keep firing.
EDward Gaming vs LNG (Net: +1.45 units)
EDG took care of business here and grisled veteran Scout, who I mentioned yesterday as having put together a few good series in a row now, delivered a gem in this one by completely dominating Maple.
Perhaps the bigger news regarding EDG is that Aodi has been suspended and fined for unprofessional behavior. He’ll be losing one month’s salary and any further punishments issued by the league for some horrible comments toward DragonX’s Keria in a solo queue ladder game. Kevin Kim has details and the video here.
LPL Total: +14.345 units
Daily Total Net: +14.345 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 9 – Day 3
JD Gaming -909 (-1.5 maps @ -189) vs
eStar +540 (+1.5 maps @ +146, -1.5 @ +1000)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -110 / +9.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -128 / under -102)
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
EST – CJJ, Wei, Fenfen, Rat, ShiauC
JDG are 11-1 straight up, 6-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -446)
JDG are 19-11 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.5)
eStar are 0-7 straight up, 4-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +175)
eStar are 7-11 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.79)
Kill spreads +9.5 or larger have covered 13 out of 18 times this season
CJJ will be getting his first match start of the season. He played a single game earlier in that weird situation against LGD where Garvey started vs Xiaobai in game one, LGD lost, they subbed in Langx and then eStar, for whatever reason, subbed in CJJ only to have him struggle going 0/4/3 in the Ornn matchup. eStar eventually lost the series. This wasn’t really a fair evaluation and it’s a one game sample size. Don’t put any stock into it.
I think JDG are a really good team and part of the elite three/four in the LPL. My eco/objective model likes them as well placing them at #2 overall (still well behind TOP). They’re your Spring split champions and they’ve been rounding into form despite a few hiccups of late…. but this number is entirely too large.
Look, I know eStar have had a relatively disappointing season but this team is still significantly better than their record. They’ve taken games off of Invictus and Suning in the past two weeks alone not to mention a game off of Vici, RNG, LGD and while they lost 0-2 to Victory Five those two games likely should have been wins for them. If any of those happen people are suddenly considering this team decent as opposed to bad and that’s the point here.
Ask yourself this. EDG and LGD vs Dominus were both -769. Is eStar worse than Dominus? Would you say this is that large of a gap? Larger? Smaller? JDG just had to defeat a dragon soul to take game two vs BiliBili, dropped a game to LNG after nearly losing game one and then again nearly losing game three. They’re good but do they really deserve to be laying this large a number? I think not especially since they’ve locked a playoff spot and only need one win in their next three (vs eStar, OMG, and V5). The model shows eStar with a vastly superior gold differential at 15, small edge at 20. while JDG lead in dragons and gold differential post 20 as well as baron control (which they lead the league in). JDG have been playing with fire a bit and all it takes is one mistake for a snowball to get out of hand as opposed to looking “controlled / scaling.”
While I don’t want to call this a classic let down spot for JDG, since they’re playing for a top two seed which puts them directly into semifinals but there’s a very strong chance we see them coast a little like we have in their past few series. This team is obviously good but this is just such a dangerous trap spot. I also think a team with nothing to lose, like eStar, can be particularly dangerous, especially with a few younger players looking to showcase their talents for future teams or a contract after this season.
I absolutely love this spot for eStar and they’re the type of team that I like as an underdog as it is with their aggressive, uptempo style. All it takes is for them to close a game out and while that’s no easy task against JDG, it’s certainly easier than not. I could definitely see eStar jumping out to a lead and snowballing one or two games here. eStar aren’t a team like LNG who tend to roll over and die in losses. They’re going to take the fight to you and they’re very good at that. Also, think about how successful most of the substitutions have been this season in their first few games before they’ve been “solved.” Most have been pretty good. Don’t automatically assume he’s going to get dumpstered by Zoom just because Zoom is good.
For those curious, my model, which takes trending performance into consideration, has eStar as the 9th rated team slightly behind EDG and slightly ahead of RNG and Team WE despite the disappointing results this season. You know who’s below all of those teams? FunPlus Phoenix… we’ll get to them in just a minute. Obviously numbers don’t mean everything but they are a very sobering, neutral take at what a team is and the fact is, eStar are better than their record and this line does not accommodate that. Their film also supports this with a number of close games and few mistakes in most of their series (not all). This team is good they just had a few really close situations go the other way.
I’ll also mention that this is the end of Summer in the LPL. Weird stuff happens. It doesn’t always make sense. These teams that are at the top of the table don’t always play it out as hard as we’d assume they would for higher seeding and what not whether it’s because they don’t want to show too much or they don’t deal well with teams that have nothing to lose or just general exhaustion is anybody’s guess. All I know is that in my years of doing this, don’t rule out bizarre late Summer happenings.
Disclaimer: I’m going to end up having a ton of volume on this game but most of it is on totals/props so stake yourself accordingly if you’re tailing but a lot of these outcomes, particularly the totals and props are agnostic to the actual match result. It’s the nature of my high volume approach.
Odds Weighted: 27.61
Underdog Win: 25.1
“G” Projected Total: 26.68 kills
I expect eStar to punch JDG in the mouth and from there it’ll just be a matter of whether or not they can answer back or if they get rolled over. JDG are a smart team so I’d expect them to be able to get back into a game unless it’s a drastic lead. That combined with eStar’s “nothing to lose” situation could make this into a bloodier affair than even this moderately high total assumes. I like the over. More situations play out to an over here than an under when you think about how these games should go if we played a number of them.
JDG game times: 31.76 / 32.72 / 29.52 (average / in wins / in losses)
EST game times: 32.4 / 31.6 / 33.0 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.08 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.515 minutes
Similar to the above, if you think JDG or eStar are going to be able to snowball a lead then the under is worth a play. I typically like playing the under but JDG have been taking their time ramping up into games lately and given that it’s tough to justify not taking the over on a very low 31:00 time total.
First Blood: JDG 50% / EST 57.14%
First Tower: JDG 43.33% / EST 75%
First Dragon: JDG 60% / EST 60.714%
First Herald: JDG 46.67% / EST 53.57%
I love all of the firsts for eStar here regardless of whether or not you think JDG win the series. eStar have had excellent openings despite their losing record so even if you’re bullish on JDG and bearish on eStar these are worth considering at the ridiculous numbers we’re getting for a few of them.
Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ +146 (1 unit)
Moneyline: eStar +540 (0.5 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +1000 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar +9.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 eStar +9.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -139 (1.39 units)
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ -128 (1.28 units)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ +111 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ +111 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first herald @ +156 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first herald @ +156 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ +103 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ +104 (1 unit)
FunPlus Phoenix -139 (-1.5 maps @ +213) vs
LGD Gaming +109 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 @ +302)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +103 / under -133)
FPX – GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
FPX are 7-4 straight up, 3-8 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -616, -344 sans LNG)
FPX are 11-18 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.77)
LGD are 2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +178)
LGD 2-0’d WE as underdogs
LGD are 6-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.75)
It seriously hurts my soul to say this because this LGD team is so frustratingly bad from a macro standpoint but they deserve to be the favorites here for a number of reasons.
First, FunPlus have remained a very intelligent team this year and still do a lot of things well in game but they’re very similar to G2 in that they’ve taken the entire year and it feels as if they’re getting by on their ability alone since they haven’t had a very good read on the metagame for most of 2020. They don’t have their “schtick” of super carry Doinb right now even though you’d think this meta is outstanding for someone like him given his champion pool.
Second, the game is much less about brains and more about brawn right now. FPX don’t lack for brawn but neither do LGD. I’d take FPX’s players over LGD any day of the week but…
Third, the game is about getting ahead right now and LGD are exceedingly good at that despite their sometime poor closing technique. If you look at FunPlus’ previous four series (vs EDG, OMG, JDG, RW) they’ve averaged the following: -375 gold differential at 10 minutes, -636.9 at 15, -1321 at 20, and a -1.62 GPR (gold percent rating). If you narrow it down to their wins? -186 GD @ 10, +474 GD @ 15, +580 GD @ 20. Honestly not much better. Even in their most recent two series against EDG and OMG FunPlus have trailed or gone even for a large chunk of the games and while they aren’t complete dumpster fires, I don’t think anybody would consider those teams particularly strong.
Fourth, FunPlus have won their two most recent series since GimGoon returned to the lineup but outside of a slick outplay on the first dive against him, he’s been largely underwhelming, if not straight up subpar. While he’s had a 70.2% kill participation thanks to two Gangplank games (champion inflates this number), he’s also posting a -458 gold differential @ 10, -267 XP diff @ 10, and -14.4 CS diff @ 10 (which is the worst for any top laner regardless of number of games). Admittedly it’s a small sample size but the film doesn’t really do him any favors either other than that initial outplay in his first game back. I talk a lot of smack on Langx since I find him to be extremely overrated in general but GimGoon is also being ridiculously overrated right now just because they’ve won four out of five since he’s returned. Do I think these stats are an accurate representation of GimGoon’s overall quality as a player? No but I do think it speaks to his generally poor performance thus far.
Fifth, the economy/objective model has LGD rated significantly higher at 7th overall an in a large tier below TOP that scales from JDG down to LGD. FPX are 12th in a tier with EDG, eStar, RNG, WE, and are closer to BiliBili than to EDG who sit atop this tier in this model. Again, these are just the numbers but they’re very sobering.
I think everyone’s gut has FunPlus winning this series. I think everyone WANTS the former world champs to win this series. They’re a fun team and this is an absolute must win for them while LGD can afford to eat a loss or two to finish the season, but the reality of the situation is that FPX simply haven’t been as good as they should be. Earlier in the season they took a few losses that they shouldn’t have despite great play, they disrespected a few opponents badly (looking at RW in particular), and now find themselves in a situation where they more or less have to win out or bare minimum win three of their final four. The game also doesn’t reward macro play in the same ways that it has in previous years which was a major strength of this team. It’s much more difficult to stall out an early game that goes wrong and outwit your opponents late. It’s all about getting ahead and it’s much easier conceptually to close a game out now given all the tools being right in front of your (soul, herald, etc) which makes it easier for teams that aren’t the cleanest closers (like LGD amongst others) to perform better than we want them to.
It goes against every bone in my body and I hate to say it but LGD are not only the play here but this line is pretty badly mispriced. They should be favored. I don’t even think they’re they are a better a team overall but they are better suited to play in the current environment of the game. When you really dive in and watch the film and look at the numbers it can be, as I’ve mentioned a few times this article, a very sobering realization. We all have biases and the previous years’ champions are one of the most common and alluring in all of sports especially when the team is still pretty good and has great players but we have to call a spade a spade; I think we might potentially see FPX’s playoff hopes end here. They could still win out after that and make it in but they’d need help and they can still make it to worlds through the regional qualifier .
Underdog Win: 26.95
“G” Projected Total: 24.115 kills
With their season potentially on the line this might turn bloodier than normal if FPX fall behind but I’d also think there’s some level of over conservativeness we’ll see in this match so I think if anything I’d lean to the under. I won’t be playing the kill or time total in this series because there’s a wide variance depending on how each game goes. I could see things getting really wild if FPX lose game one and start panicking.
FPX game times: 30.98 / 30.95 / 31.0 (average / in wins / in losses)
LGD game times: 33.2 / 31.7 / 35.16 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.09 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.29 minutes
See above, similar reasons.
First Blood: FPX 60.61% / LGD 53.33%
First Tower: FPX 39.39% / LGD 60%
First Dragon: FPX 60.61% / LGD 36.67%
First Herald: FPX 45.45% / LGD 46.67%
There is value on first dragon for FPX but the rest of these are priced pretty tight today.
Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ -286 (2.86 units)
Moneyline: LGD +109 (1 unit)
Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +302 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 FPX first dragon @ -135 (1.35 units)
Prop: Map 2 FPX first dragon @ -135 (1.35 units)