Tuesday, July 21st Recap
OMG vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: +2.22 units)
IT was nice to finally see FunPlus get back in the win column again. As I described in yesterday’s post, this team hasn’t been playing poorly just unfortunately not good enough to get wins against a tough schedule (other than RW). GimGoon looked decent in his return but had a few weird mishaps that I’ll attribute to Curse playing well and a little rust. I’m just going to reiterate one more time (for the people in the back) that FPX have a relatively easy schedule for the rest of the season starting with this one and their only truly difficult matchup is Suning. There is going to be a wave of overreaction about GimGoon winning and “Khan was the problem.” Be better than this.
OMG showed a few signs of life in this one, particularly in game one and while Icon has been an shadow of his former self, Curse has been playing pretty well of late. The metagame is also pretty good for Smlz with his pocket Jhin as a viable pick. We got to see the bottom lane AP Kogmaw in this one and while it didn’t work out, Smlz was still farming well and definitely a threat if this game didn’t end sooner.
Vici Gaming vs EDward Gaming (Net: -4.2 units)
Vici completely ran over game one in the fashion that I honestly expected them to in this series. Game two was all the snowball of a slow rotation by Maestro to get to a top play that ended up in a commanding lead that EDG, despite their best efforts to throw back over the course of the game, would end up being enough. Game three EDG just jumped out to a fast start again and, yet again, made some mistakes in closing but they were just too far ahead for it to matter.
What was weird about this series is that Kkoma didn’t sub out Leyan OR Maestro after rough game twos which I found intriguing. Is this the pattern moving forward or was this just because of how he liked Leyan playing the matchup? Is this a champion pool issue for Hang? Either way it was weird to see Vici not make a substitution.
I still think this was the right play. Vici have been looking excellent going into this series while EDG have been playing the worst league of the entire calendar year for them.
I also want to take a second to dispel a few misconceptions because there’s been a lot of hate flying around.
2nd in CSPM
5th in DPM
7th in gold PM
4th in gold diff @ 15
3rd in XP diff @ 15
1st in wards cleared PM
5th in vision score PM
On a sub 50% win rate team.
10th in CSPM
12th in DPM
12th in gold PM
18th in gold diff @ 15
19th in XP diff @ 15
16th in wards cleared PM
14th in vision score PM
Also on a sub 50% win rate team
Obviously stats don’t mean everything especially at this position but this first guy looks pretty far from a “bad” jungler to me. Looks like a dude doing his job pretty efficiently. The first listed is, you guessed it, Leyan. Who’s the second though? It’s Aix. Leyan has been playing mostly game one “blind” while Aix gets to dissect the other team with Kkoma from the bench and enter into more advantageous positions. Leyan picks before the enemy jungler 60% of the time. Aix slightly better at 54%. Presumably Aix should have better production right?
Now, I don’t actually think there is this big of a gap between these two. I actually think they’re both pretty good and in that hodge podge middle of the table for junglers. They’re good, sometimes great, but nothing spectacular. The main point I’m trying to get across here is not to completely hate on someone for what appears bad. Leyan played a fairly bad series this morning, he made a lot of mistakes, especially in game two but that game was also effectively over before the 10 minute mark when Maestro made the fatal error. Leyan was just the one that looked bad for it. By no means was he good today but the hate these guys get is really unwarranted. I know fantasy is a different beast and I don’t mind when people psych themselves up by hating on or facetiously trash talking people for fun but when that becomes the norm it ends up coming off as really miserable. Try to be better than that.
LPL Total: -1.98 units
Daily Total Net: -1.98 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 3
Rogue Warriors -143 (-1.5 maps @ +212) vs
eStar +112 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 @ +290)
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -120 / +2.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)
RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Irma, Rat, ShiauC
Rogue Warriors have not been favorites this season
eStar are 0-6 straight up, 4-2 against the map spread as underdogs this season (avg odds: +186)
Irma will be playing his debut LPL game. I haven’t actively watched any LDL but just checking out some numbers and a little tiny bit of film (two games, opening ten mins) he of the Teacherma/Doinb mold; a player that wants to get out of lane phase and make things happen on the map. Fenfen was doing a fine job fitting into that same role for eStar who thrived under Cryin’s success with that (and other) methods. Sett, Twisted Fate, Pantheon, Renekton, Galio, and Sylas are all of his multi-game champions. Wuming and Irma have played against each other before in LDL.
The skinny: this shouldn’t change too much for eStar and, if anything, should bring a change of pace and energy as well as a player that has faced Wuming before who has been off to a solid start since becoming the full time mid laner for RW.
While not mathematically eliminated, both of these teams would need to win out to even have a chance at a playoff spot and even then odds would be slim that they’d even get there at 8-8.
Rogue Warriors have been running a little hot, cleaning up the free draft wins that FPX handed to them as well as a 2-0 sweep of the sloppy LGD and a 2-1 over Dominus. Before that they had game wins against Vici, OMG, and JDG. Rogue Warriors have improved but frankly they don’t deserve to be laying money against anybody besides maybe LNG and Dominus who are a tier worse than the rest of the league by both the eye test and the statistical model.
I know eStar have been bad but they finally picked up a win against OMG the other day to break their losing streak. Rat looked great in his debut and I think another young player to bring some positive energy can only help. The model economy/objective blend model absolutely loves eStar in this spot and so do I although, truth be told, I probably would have taken whoever was getting plus money here as I think these teams are pretty close. I still give a slight edge to eStar overall even with RW’s improved performance of late. While this is also a classic “fade the hype” situation this is more rooted in numbers and the fact that I really don’t think RW are that good of a team.
Odds Weighted: 27.81
Underdog Win: 26.61
“G” Projected Total: 27.50 kills
This total is extremely high and while the champion pools (looking at Irma’s mid pool) line up in a way that makes me think we could see a total blood bath I think the correct play here is still to take the under because there is a very good chance these games snowball out of control for one team or the other.
EST game times: 32.32 / 31.6 / 32.95 (average / in wins / in losses)
RW game times: 33.62 / 36.74 / 31.96 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.97 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.454 minutes
Suggests an over but I’m going to pass. Think there’s a good chance these games get messy or snowball wildly out of control for one side or the other in a hurry.
First Blood: EST 53.85% / RW 61.54%
First Tower: EST 73.07% / RW 46.15%
First Dragon: EST 61.54% / RW 50%
First Herald: EST 50% / RW 53.85%
eStar first tower is the obvious one here. RW first dragon also presents value.
Moneyline: eStar +112 (2 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +290 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)
Prop: Map 1 RW first dragon @ +100 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 RW first dragon @ +100 (0.5 units)
Team WE -270 (-1.5 maps @ +129) vs
BiliBili Gaming +201 (+1.5 maps @ -167, -1.5 @ +483)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -127 / under -103)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -101)
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
WE are 4-2 straight up, 2-4 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -379)
WE are 6-9 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.17)
BLG are 2-6 straight up, 5-3 agaisnt the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +278)
BLG are 9-11 against the kill spread as underdogs
The economy/objective model uses a blend of trending and season long performance in a number of categories and an interesting one that popped out to me was that BiliBili are currently the second best team in the LPL in gold differential at 15 in this model only to JDG and ahead of LGD, TOP, and RNG. Obviously I’m not putting them on that level but it was interesting to see how strong their performance has been relative to the rest of the season since Meteor rejoined the lineup. It fits directly in line with that identity of snowballing a jungler lead as well. Of note, WE had exactly this problem against LGD the other day.
Team WE have actually been struggling quite a bit of late. It’s possible that they’ve just been coasting to playoffs a bit especially when you look at their series against LNG and Dominus who each took a game off of them but teams like JDG and LGD just jumped out to leads and ran over them. Obviously, as the season goes on this team has been figured out a bit but it shouldn’t be to the degree that it warrants this poor of a recent performance relative to what we saw the rest of the way.
This is a stylistically challenging matchup for Team WE who rely heavily on scaling. As I’ve discussed before, BiliBili are frequently mischaracterized as a slow/control team just because their CKPM numbers are low but they are a tempo team at their core and want to play around getting an advantage through Meteor and snowballing it to a win.
Treat this matchup just like WE’s last matchup against LGD. BiliBili are very similar in that they can get leads early and snowball them but frequently mess up which makes the games take longer but just because it’s frequent doesn’t mean it’s so frequent to avoid a wager which is how I talked myself out of LGD in the last match. I bet Team WE in that spot but the number was also significantly lower and it appears that teams have figured out to just go underneath of them. In Season 10 LOL I’m more willing to take brawn over brains than I have been in the past, especially in the current metagame.
This number is entirely too large for two teams that are, a few percentile apart in the model and based on recent performance/the eye test that appears to be in line. Stylistically this is going to be a challenge for Team WE and we’re getting a gigantic number. Take the dogs.
Underdog Win: 23.69
“G” Projected Total: 25.18 kills
As a smart team, WE tend to not go down without a fight even against a heavy snowball so I think I like the over here regardless of who wins. The projection agrees.
WE game times: 33.8 / 31.18 / 34.29 (average / in wins / in losses)
BLG game times: 32.57 / 33.7 / 31.69 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.19 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.23 minutes
I’d lean to the over in this spot because BLG have a tendency to now close with optimal speed and WE aren’t afraid to take their time either but this could go either way. I’ll pass.
First Blood: WE 44.83% / BLG 48%
First Tower: WE 62.06% / BLG 52%
First Dragon: WE 55.17% / BLG 52%
First Herald: WE55.17% / BLG 56%
These are all priced pretty tightly today.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -167 (3.34 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +201 (1 unit)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +483 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)