Tuesday, June 30th Recap
LNG vs BiliBili (Net: +4.55 units)
FoFo played really well in this series but this team looked entirely different with Meteor in the jungle. They had attitude, character, gumption even! LNG actually played arguably their best opening besides that Vici single game win of the entire season before completely punting it. While I figured this series would play out more like game one, we’ll take it.
LNG have been slowly but surely getting a little more proactive which we might need to look out for but it’s still not a comfortable thing for them and you can tell. It’s almost as if this team needs a lead thrown to them because they get overexcited or something… I don’t know just a thought.
RNG vs WE (Net: -1.64 units)
RNG utterly smashed game one with exactly the kind of draft I talked about in yesterday’s post. I was gushing about it on Twitter and in the Discord, three winning lanes, three lanes with priority, three lanes with CC for a priority/tempo jungler in Nidalee to outpace. Nidalee also needs CC in her lanes to gank… absolutely perfect.
Game two they picked a similar style of composition with Cryin on Twisted Fate and Mordekaiser top as well as an Aphelios lane to attack with Ashe… and they did absolutely nothing with it until it was so far past the normal first TF ultimate window that Team WE just got themselves ready for it, counterpunched and the game was essentially over from there when they gave the scaling comp the lead. Team WE almost punted it at one point but this was more or less in the bag. RNG could have TF ulted top lane in combination with Mordekaiser ult and scored a free kill or at bare minimum a flash and then revisit later. This was a huge missed opportunity, likely due to tunnel visioning on shutting down Jiumeng, at least that’s my thought process.
Game three was a slightly similar setup to game one but with some late game insurance in Azir. Team WE jumped out to a lead in this one too and just did their thing. RNG did what they could but couldn’t break Team Fortress (get it?)
Team WE remain the same. Exploitable if you execute even halfway decently. RNG look outstanding one game and asleep the next which is becoming a growing concern. I’ve got some thoughts on the commentary but I’ll save that for a rant one day. I’ll need a soapbox for that one.
LPL Total: +2.91 units
Daily Total Net: +2.91 units
Not a bad day for a two game slate. RNG would have made this a monster and they looked more than capable after game one. C’est la vie.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 5 – Day 3
Favorites are 35-17, 22-30 against the map spread
There have been 8 underdog 2-0 victories in 54 matches
Underdogs have covered the kill spread in 64 out of 126 games
Kill totals have gone under in 70 out of 126 games
Time totals have gone under in 79 out of 126 games
Favorites have failed to cover their team total in 70 out of 126 games
Dominus +738 (+1.5 maps @ +191, -1.5 maps @ +1022) vs
Invictus -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -250)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -119 / -9.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -147 / under +113)
DOM – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Reheal
IG are 3-2, 2-3 against the map spread as favorites
IG are 7-5 against the kill spread as favorites
Time totals have gone under in 8 out of 12 IG games
Dominus are 1-5, 2-4 against the map spread as underdogs
Dominus are 6-7 against the kill spread as underdogs
Time totals have gone under in 9 out of 13 DOM games
Kill totals have gone over in 7 out of 13 DOM games
Dominus have only covered their team total in 6 out of 13 games
** Reheal will be getting the start in the support position for Invictus **
** Yui will be getting the start in the support position for Dominus **
Both will be starting in the LPL for the first time although both have been playing and highly successful in the LDL for the past two years.
Dominus have looked better of late putting up a solid single game against Suning and apparently having their morning coffee before the EDG match because they really showed up to play in that series. EDG weren’t playing poorly either.
So which Dominus are we going to get here? At some point teams improve but even the worst teams have these flash-in-the-pan type performances. Perhaps the roster shakeups are panning out? I’m not buying it.
With an average gold differential at 20 minutes of -2726, for a team that tries to play a weird blend of top-centric/lane-kingdom LOL, they certainly aren’t doing their job well. Admittedly, the new look Dominus have been markedly better with a +688.5 over their last four games, and -225 over their past eight. Dominus are still a tremendously inconsistent team and they haven’t been remotely competitive in most of their losses.
Invictus, on the other hand, have been a bit of an enigma. In some ways they’re similar to Dominus. When they lose, they lose HARD but when they win it’s complete domination on par with Cloud 9 smashing the LCS. IG have scored first blood in just 3 out of 17 games but still maintain a +429 gold differential at 10, +497 at 15, and +1411 at 20 even with just a 52% first tower rate. Their CS/min differentials are off the charts as a team and while that metric hasn’t had a strong correlation to victory as it has in past seasons, it showcases just how good Invictus’ individual players are.
Dominus are going to have a really hard time in this match on an individual level particularly in the solo lanes. Rookie and TheShy are going to provide a number of issues that I’m not entirely sure Dominus will be able to overcome. Invictus have also shown that they’re evolving and their new assistant coach has helped them step into the proverbial 21st century of LOL with some fresh looking drafts and approaches that I think will do wonders for this team with more time but have made an immediate impact.
You could look at the starting of Reheal as “disrespect” and maybe put IG on the “screwing around and punt a game” narrative but I think the new player will have the opposite effect.
Odds Weighted: 21.91
Underdog Win: 25.73
“G” Projected Total: 24.81 kills
The odds-weighted total sticks out to me as I could see this new look Invictus with Reheal playing a more stock-standard game. I also think that Invictus have a multiple order of magnitude advantage in the solo lanes that will open up split pushing opportunities for them which contribute to low kill games. My projection says this number is pretty close but I’m confident we’ll see an under here. In the six matches where Invictus had a total of 24.5 or lower, the total went under in four of them (vs LGD, EDG). I don’t see IG messing around here especially after Dominus are coming off of a win against EDG. UNDER.
DOM game times: 31.19 / 35.48 / 30.12 (average / in wins / in losses)
IG game times: 32.22 / 29.6 / 37 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.7
Odds Weighted: 30.58
31:00 is the lowest time total I’ve seen in the major regions this season and it makes sense. Invictus are extremely dominant in most of their wins. Overpowering even. Dominus tend to lose quickly with an average game time of 30.12 in losses. I like the under but at -147 the price is a little too rich for me.
First Blood: IG 17.64% / DOM 53.33%
First Tower: IG 52.94% / DOM 47.05%
First Dragon: IG 58.82% / DOM 47.1%
There is value in each of these prop markets for Dominus especially first blood where Invictus are comically -132. I’ll be passing these as I think this series is going to be a complete beatdown.
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -250 (2.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Suning Gaming +169 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +404) vs
LGD Gaming -222 (-1.5 maps @ +150)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -104 / under -125)
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -110 / -4.5 @ -119
Time Total: 33:00 (over -111 / under -118)
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
LGD are 3-0, 1-2 against the map spread as favorites
LGD are 6-2 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill Totals have gone under in 6 out of 8 games where LGD were favored
LGD have only covered their team total in 3 out of 8 games as favorites
Suning are 1-3, 2-2 against the map spread as underdogs
Time totals have gone over in 7 out of 10 Suning games as underdogs
The favorite has gone under their team total in 6 out of 10 Suning underdog appearances
I still straight up think LGD are flawed as a team but for what they throw away with poor macro play they make up for in building leads for themselves.
Fun Fact: Peanut has 6 first bloods and 4 first blood assists in 13 games. That’s nutty but somehow unsurprising.
— Gelati (@GelatiLOL) June 30, 2020
What I’m curious about is what happens when Peanut ISN’T getting the ball rolling early. If it’s anything like LGD last season then they’re going to be a very feast-or-famine type team.
The other side of the equation in this series is that I also think Suning perhaps a tad overrated in terms of public perception. I think people see this team’s win against Team WE and automatically respect them but the fact of the matter is that they’ve had a tough time against the other “good” teams (Invictus, EDG, JDG). Suning’s metrics are right down the middle. The classic league average squad in most measures and that’s what I think they are. I don’t see Suning making the playoffs but they’re going to be a competitive middle of the table team that has some good qualities and some bad.
On paper this is a slam dunk LGD bet. Their metrics looks dominant and people will point to their series against TOP Esports as a highlight point but this team still has very poor fundamentals that are going to lose them more games than they probably should. As good as Peanut has been about being a first blood king throughout his career, especially this season, it’s not always something you want to rely on and his teams have struggled in cases where he hasn’t secured it even if it. If you were to normalize LGD’s first blood rate to the league average they’d actually be a negative gold differential at 10, small positives at 15 and 20. Obviously you need to account for it, but compared to some other high gold differential teams, LGD are highly reliant on Peanut to get the ball rolling.
I don’t think LGD are as good as the public seems to think. They’re probably a playoff contender but they don’t deserve to be this heavily favored over Suning. Underdog Special!
Underdog Win: 26.78
“G” Projected Total: 22.02 kills
The odds-weighted total is extremely low for a reason. At 15.125, LGD have the 3rd lowest KPW (kills per win) total in the LPL this season more than 2.5 kills below the league average of 17.55. Suning are also slightly below the that average. KPL for each team is 6.75 for Suning and 9.6 for LGD. I like a play on the under.
SN game times: 32.4 / 31.17 / 33.77 (average / in wins / in losses)
LGD game times: 31.92 / 29.7 / 35.47 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.16 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.29 minutes
This time total is a little more challenging. LGD have a propensity to botch setups for objectives when they have a lead which can lead to that extra few minutes a total might need to go over and because they usually have huge advantages when that happens, they can absorb the blow and still win the game. If we were getting closer to even or plus money on the under here I’d take a shot but I don’t trust LGD to close cleanly and Suning have had a 32.4 minute average in wins which is also a bit closes. Unders are hitting at an absurd clip this season but this match feels like one to stay away.
First Blood: LGD 76.9% / SN 35.29%
First Tower: LGD 47.05% / SN 52.94%
First Dragon: LGD 23.53% / SN 52.94%
-161 is what you have to pay for LGD’s first blood which is technically still a strong value even with vig left into the implied odds. Suning also haven’t been a great first blood team themselves. It’s tough not to see Peanut getting it but I’m also expecting that some regression will come at some point and that teams will start to have a game plan for him moving forward. I’m going to stay away but the value is there to play the LGD first blood.
I like Suning first tower at +101 and Suning first dragon at -110 for half stakes.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -196 (1.96 units)
Moneyline: Suning +169 (0.5 units)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +404 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 SN first tower @ +101 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 SN first tower @ +103 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 SN first dragon @ -110 (0.55 units)
Prop: Map 2 SN first dragon @ -109 (0.545 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 1
I’ll be moving toward using more data as the LCK season progresses but the sample size is still fairly small for most of these teams and I will remain film-centric for the time being.
T1 -145 (-1.5 maps @ +222) vs
DAMWON Gaming +107 (+1.5 maps @ -303, -1.5 maps @ +279)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -111 / +2.5 @ -118
Time Total: OTB
DAMWON Gaming are playing incredible LOL from an individual standpoint but still make some really boneheaded mistakes in their overzealous attempt to constantly fight and assert their prowess. T1 have been running out Ellim more often and he’s performed very well in those games.
It’s somewhat odd that I don’t have too much to say about this one but it really just boils down to this. When DAMWON are hot, they’re hot and right now they’re hot. As clumsy as they can be at times this team is immensely talented. The thing is, these are exactly the kind of spots throughout T1’s history that they’ve “reality checked” someone so you can understand why one would be hesitant to slam the underdogs here.
That in mind, I still think this is a good shot to take. T1 might try some roster changes and even with the full lineup, aren’t infallible. DAMWON can beat any team in the world in a series when they’re playing as well as they have been. That deserves a shot. This is a coin flip to me maybe slight lean to current form DAMWON. When you’re flush, you’re flush.
Moneyline: DAMWON +107 (1 unit)
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +279 (0.25 units)
Sandbox Gaming +580 (+1.5 maps @ +153, -1.5 maps @ +811) vs
Gen.G -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -200)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 14.5
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -112 / -8.5 @ -116
Time Total: OTB
Sandbox looked a little bit better in their series on Sunday but T1 were just individually outplaying everything under the sun across the map so it was just a little much to handle at the time. Unfortunately, Gen.G aren’t any easier of an out.
Gen.G had to open the season with DragonX, KT Rolster, and the red hot DAMWON and managed to win two of those series and likely should have won against DragonX if not for some absolutely insane play from their opponents in game three from a deficit. They finally caught an easy opponent and just obliterated SeolHaeOne in a little over 50 minutes total even running the score up styling a bit in both games. I’d expect something similar here although I do think Sandbox are a little bit better than SP.
I really want to hammer the over in this spot especially with Gen.G showing a willingness to pile on like they did but there’s a chance Sandbox offer a less bloody resistance. We also don’t know if that was just Gen.G finally letting loose after a challenging starting schedule and they were just feelin’ it that day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go back to their typical serious approach. I’ll take a half stake on the over instead of a full.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -200 (2 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)