Tuesday, July 14th Recap
Team WE vs LNG (Net: -3.58 units)
LNG ate their Wheaties and had their coffee for game one because they came out firing more than I’ve seen this team do all season long and what do you know, they won a game! Seriously though LNG looked pretty good in this one. Unfortunately that would be the last of it as they quickly turned back into a pumpkin for games two and three reverting back to their old ways.
We can see that Team WE will get themselves into trouble if they continue to cede early game leads. I want them to look more like they did in game three more of the time. Get a lead before giving one more often and suddenly this is an actual contending team instead of the first or second round exit I expect them to be.
Three of the kill totals landed on the hook today two here and one in the LGD/RW series. We caught this game one under and missed the rest unfortunately.
LGD vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +2.39 units)
I don’t want to say I told you so because I definitely didn’t back Rogue Warriors in my article yesterday but I did caution against LGD. They’re a team with better numbers than on the rift play. They also don’t know how to play from a deficit as was evidenced by this series. Props to Rogue Warriors, Haro in particular for really getting the ball rolling early. He’s been excellent the past couple of series for them. Wuming had a solid day on Galio punishing a clumsy LGD with easy to execute wombos with his teammates. LGD did nothing to punish the Galio in game two even with a mid/jungle duo that should make his life a living hell. Again, poor LGD macro.
LPL Total: -1.19 units
Daily Total Net: -1.19 units
Pretty rough that three totals landed on the hook but what can ya do. In hindsight I should have did a half stake underdog special on RW because the model suggested it and I was a denier.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 7 – Day 3
eStar -125 (-1.5 maps @ +242, +1.5 @ -357) vs
OMG -101 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +262)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -111 / +1.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -132 / under +101)
EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Rat, ShiauC
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
eStar are 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -244)
eStar are 4-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.5)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 10 games where eStar were favored (avg total: 26.0)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 10 games where eStar were favored (avg total: 32)
eStar have covered their team total in 6 out of 10 games as favorites (avg total: 14.75)
Underdogs have covered their team total in 7 out of 10 games vs eStar (avg total: 10.5)
OMG are 1-5 straight up, 4-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +228)
OMG are 8-7 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.66)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 11 out of 15 games where OMG were underdogs (avg total: 24.17)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 8 out of 15 games where OMG were underdogs (avg total: 32.33)
OMG have covered their team total in 9 out of 15 appearances as underdogs (avg total: 9.67)
Favorites have covered their team total in 7 out of 15 games against OMG (avg total: 14.0)
I know, the trends sections are getting pretty long but I’ve got all this data to share with you so here you go!
Full disclosure: I have some really strong opinions on this game that are primarily based on film and less so on the numbers. If that’s not for you then proceed with a grain of salt.
Both of these teams grade out as the 14th and 13th team in my blended model which puts some weight on trending performance while the season-long model does not. They aren’t any better in the season long model. Do I believe it to be the case for these teams? That’s a more interesting question.
OMG, for the most part, are who we thought they were
(are who we thought they were gif)
Other than a new look in their most recent couple of matches, they’ve mostly tried to be that same old “diet lane kingdom” that we’ve come to know them for. Their numbers are always slightly better than public perception which is that this team is one of the worst in the league which leaves OMG in this limbo of a bad team that is underrated but not really that good.
eStar have played a ton of close games this season that have hinged on one fight or one play that blew the game open or ended it. In some of these cases it’s been a game ending error on the part of eStar, in many of them they were simply very close fights that could have gone either way. Now, you could critique this and say “well if they were actually good they would have converted a few of those at least.” I’d have very little argument against that. I would, however, posit that, since there were some heavy duty favorites on the receiving end of those plays that people just brush it off as “eStar are bad.”
Not to blame all of eStar’s 2-8 record on bad luck but it’s not a far cry to say that this team could easily be 5-5 or 6-4 if a few bounces went their way. We’ve seen a lot of this in season 10. More coin flip scenarios, more snowballs ending games before you have a chance to get back into them, and the introduction of higher variance playstyles. eStar were one of them but the world caught up. Does that mean they’re toast? Absolutely not.
eStar can still ball out and I’d expect them on pretty much any other occasion to utterly whoop OMG in this position but we have to ask whether or not this team has “quit” or not. At 2-8 their season is all but over. Perception is that they’re done as well with Rat being announced as a starter for Wink who will miss his first game with the team.
I’m not buying that.
To me, eStar have looked like a good team that just can’t catch a break and the tilt started to set in with some unforced errors piling up at the season descended deeper and deeper to the depths of the LPL murk water. They’ve played some incredibly close series that ended up 0-2 like Victory Five for example where many of the fights were on a knife’s edge and they even had a lead that they punted away over forcing. This is a strong opinion/gut handicap position. On paper, my numbers have these two teams more or less at these odds to the point where there is no value but the difference to me is that one of these teams has looked a lot better on film despite some big mistakes (eStar) while the other has more systemic issues (OMG).
I’m riding with eStar. I think they’ve hit rock bottom already and at this point they’ve got nothing to lose. Loosening up from the pressure should help this team as well as having a fresh new, voice and player that’s playing for his next job. They’re doing so many things right and at some point I can’t help but think they’re going to start converting on that.
Odds Weighted: 27.36
Underdog Win: 27.83
“G” Projected Total: 27.73 kills
This is a very high total but it projects that way given the way these teams both win and lose. No play.
EST game times: 32.49 / 31.82 / 33.01 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 34.05 / 35.57 / 32.88 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 33.27 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.27 minutes
No plays here.
First Blood: EST 52.17% / OMG 43.58%
First Tower: EST 73.91% / OMG 30.43%
First Dragon: EST 60.87% / OMG 56.52%
First Herald: EST 47.83% / OMG 47.83%
Despite all the losses and a slightly below league average herald control rate, eStar have still managed to maintain a 70+% first tower rate. OMG have been awful in this metric. This should be significantly higher priced than we’re getting at -137.
Moneyline: eStar -125 (1.25 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +240 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ -137 (2 units)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ -137 (2 units)
JD Gaming -370 (-1.5 maps @ -104) vs
Vici Gaming +268 (+1.5 maps @ -122, -1.5 @ +623)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -104 / under -125)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -118 / +6.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +114 / under -149)
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Hang
JDG are 7-1 straight up, 4-4 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -206)
JDG are 13-7 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.0)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 12 out of 20 games where JDG were favored (avg total: 24.75)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 20 games where JDG were favored (avg total: 32.375)
JDG have covered their team total in 12 out of 20 games where favored (avg total: 14.375)
Underdogs have covered their team total 10 out of 20 games vs JDG (avg total: 6.0)
Vici are 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +154)
Vici are 6-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +3.5)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 7 out of 10 games where Vici were underdogs (avg total: 24.5)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in in 6 out of 10 games where Vici were underdogs (avg total: 32.5)
Vici have covered their team total in 6 out of 10 appearances as underdogs (avg total: 10.75)
Favorites have covered their team total in 5 out of 10 games vs Vici (avg total: 14.0)
This is one of the most interesting handicapping scenarios I’ve seen this entire season.
JDG have slowly but surely been rounding into the form we’d expect from them while Vici struggled all season long to find consistency and even recently, despite some wins, have had a weird substitution dynamic with Leyan and Aix akin to when T1 was juggling Blank/Blossom and some other jungle duos (surprise it’s the same coach). A lot of have people have been critical of Leyan’s performance when compared to Aix but with my previous experience with Kkoma pulling this same stunt it’s not about performance or the “hot hand” or anything like that. It’s a strategy. When the other jungler gets to sit with the coach and watch the first game that can be a massive advantage in terms of seeing what the intent of the other team is, how they’re moving, where they’re warding, etc. The jungler can direct the rest of the team in this based on what he viewed in the first game. It’s a very potent tool if you have the players to utilize it and if they aren’t disrupted too much by it. Leyan has lost most of the games doing this leading Aix to get all the glory and Leyan to catch all the flack. Back when T1 was doing this before, one jungler was typically better at the blind pick jungles and playing a “general” or adaptive style while the substitute was frequently a specialist that could abuse a scenario after seeing it. I’ll just say, one of those jobs is significantly harder so take it easy on Leyan.
Another wild angle to this game is that the blended model which, again, factors in some trending performance actually says Vici are a stronger team. They’ve won 4 series in a row 2-1 over RW, eStar, and LNG which you could argue is an “easy” schedule (depending on your view of eStar). Most recently they defeated FPX 2-1 in a real slugfest series. Zeka has brought a new found versatility to the squad giving them more options. JDG have won their past six series against LGD, EDG, IG, WE, RW, and DMO. What’s even crazier is that the model is showing Vici as a favorite even in season long numbers. Keep in mind both of these teams had rocky starts.
I’m a believer in this Vici team. I liked them coming into 2020 and I liked them specifically to improve over the course of the year and be a “summer team” and it looks like that’s happening. Their uptempo approach to the game is exactly what you want to be doing right now but they’re also able to pivot into other strategies if necessary. JDG are no slouches by any stretch but this number is simply way way WAY too big for two playoff teams that aren’t TOP/V5 at this point. Give me the dogs!
Underdog Win: 23.47
“G” Projected Total: 25.512 kills
Right on the money…
JDG game times: 31.44 / 32.62 / 29.25 (average / in wins / in losses)
VG game times: 31.59 / 31.27 / 31.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.51 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.725 minutes
Given that both of these teams prefer to play with a lot of pace I could see these games ending quickly for either side. I’ll take the under.
First Blood: JDG 40% / VG 55%
First Tower: JDG 45% / VG 50%
First Dragon: JDG 55% / VG 55%
First Herald: JDG 45% / VG 65%
The juice is too much to justify a play on any of these closer calls but Vici first herald looks solid at +103.
Spread: Vici +1.5 maps @ -122 (1.22 units)
Moneyline: Vici +268 (0.5 units)
Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +623 (0.25 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -149 (1 unit)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -145 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 Vici first herald @ +103 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Vici first herald @ +103 (1 unit)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 5 – Day 1
LCK trends through four weeks:
Favorites are 31-9 straight up, 24-16 against the map spread
There have been 3 underdog 2-0’s (SB over KT, DWG over T1, Dynamics over KT)
Kill spreads have been covered by the favorite 58 out of 94 games (61.7%)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 48 out of 94 games (48.94%)
Time Totals have gone UNDER 52 out of 94 games (55.32%)
Favorites have gone OVER their team total 53 out of 94 games (56.38%)
Underdogs have gone UNDER their team total 48 out of 94 games (48.94%)
Afreeca Freecs +251 (+1.5 maps @ -123, -1.5 @ +580) vs
Gen.G -345 (-1.5 maps @ -102)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -104 / -6.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Gen.G are 6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -637.8)
Gen.G are 10-4 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 10 out of 14 games where Gen.G were favorites
Gen.G have also gone over their team total in 10 out of 14 games where they were favorites
Gen.G’s opponents have gone over their team total in just 7 out of 14 games where Gen.G were favorites
Gen.G have covered their team total in 10 out of 14 games as favorites (avg total: 13.83)
Underdogs have covered their team total in 7 out of 14 games vs Gen.G (avg total: 7.83)
Afreeca are 0-3 straight up, 1-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +270)
Afreeca are 2-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (vs T1, DRX, DWG)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 4 out of 7 games where Afreeca were underdogs (avg total: 21.83)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 4 out of 7 games where Afreeca were underdogs (avg total: 32.33)
Afreeca have covered their team total in 3 out of 7 appearances as underdogs (avg total: 8.5)
Favorites have covered their team total in 6 out of 7 games as favorites vs AF (avg total: 13.17)
I put this pick in yesterday in the look-ahead section at the bottom of the article. I think Gen.G have a reasonable argument for being the best team in Korea at the moment and they’re somehow flying under the radar. Perhaps it’s that DAMWON have provided such an explosive and entertaining viewing experience and have utterly destroyed in all their wins that’s taking away from the spotlight that should at least partially shine on Gen.G’s performance thus far. Gen.G was ahead by a significant amount in both games against T1 before some absolute miracles happened and their only other loss was to DragonX who similarly pulled out some incredible stuff in game three of that series. They’ve soundly dispatched everyone else and they’ve been far from boring in doing so with an average kill per win just 0.13 kills behind the public darling “DAMWON bloodbath.” Everyone is touting DAMWON as this LPL style aggressive team and they are, the good and the bad, but Gen.G haven’t been afraid to run up the score either.
Afreeca have had a solid start to the season. The metagame is absolutely perfect for them in a number of ways and they’ve been executing well to boot but there are a few issues I have with them compared to the other playoff caliber teams and some history that I’m afraid may repeat itself. This team has started hot and burned out halfway through the season in the past four seasons. Their underlying statistics also paint a bleak picture with the model grading them as the 6th team behind Dynamics and significantly behind the top four teams. Their track record against the top four aligns with this as they’re 1-6 in game score with the only game win coming against T1 in week two. Afreeca are pretty good but they’re not as good as their record implies and they’re nowhere near the top four teams in the LCK.
I absolutely love Gen.G here. This team is still ridiculously good and they’ve somehow been lost in the shuffle. This number should probably be -500 or more but because of Afreeca’s record we’re getting a discount. Gen.G also excel at all of the points in the game where Afreeca have struggled and have been a stronger overall team even at Afreeca’s strong points. They’ve also had success against the elite teams while Afreeca has not.
Odds Weighted: 24.735
Underdog Win: 20.56
“G” Projected Total: 23.749 kills
This is an easy over. Gen.G have had very high kill scores this season whether they’re taking an opponent seriously or not hasn’t impacted that. It’s been steady.
AF game times: 33.37 / 34.48 / 31.61 (average / in wins / in losses)
Gen.G game times: 31.25 / 30.06 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.31 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.727 minutes
I like the under here as well. Afreeca have been winning games long and losing somewhat short. Gen.G have been just short of DWG’s win time. I’d expect a quick 2-0.
First Blood: GEG 63.16% / AF 55.56%
First Tower: GEG 73.68% / AF 36.84%
First Dragon: GEG 57.89% / AF 31.58%
First Herald: GEG 84.21% / AF 44.44%
As high as the juice is on some of these markets there’s actually still some value in Gen.G on most of them. I’ll attack the best value on the board as the others are priced appropriately enough. That’s first herald.
Moneyline: Gen.G -323 (3.23 units)(from Tuesday)
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +107 (0.5 units)(from Tuesday)
Team Dynamics +566 (+1.5 maps @ +139, -1.5 @ +803) vs
DAMWON Gaming -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -175)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -112 / -8.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -111 / under -118)
DWG are 5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the map spread as favorites (loss to DRX) (avg odds: -360)
DWG are 11-2 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.17)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 13 DWG games as favorites (avg total: 32.83 mins)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 14 out of 18 DWG games total (avg total 32.75 mins)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 9 out of 13 DWG games as favorites (avg total: 22.33)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 4 out of 5 games were underdogs
Dynamics are 2-3 straight up, 3-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +298)
Dynamics are 7-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.5)
Time Totals have gone OVER in 7 out of 12 games where Dynamics were underdogs (avg total: 32.8)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 9 out of 12 games where Dynamics were underdogs (avg total: 20.7)
DAMWON have been really impressive but not nearly as much as their numbers might indicate. This team is beginning to look A LOT like 2018 Invictus. They’re arrogant, overly aggressive, and when they win they want to win in spectacular fashion instead of just the most efficient path. It makes them fun to watch and super fun as a fantasy player but this comes with risks. I know, they won the World Championship that year, but Invictus 2018 had a huge problem with pushing their boundaries a bit too far and punting games while doing it. It wasn’t ever really a doubt that they were good but they had a lot of noise in their numbers because their wins were so ridiculous.
What’s happening with DAMWON right now is akin to a football team that’s won 4 games by 28+ points against the bad teams, made a furious comeback against an elite team to barely squeak by, lost to another elite team, and are now double digit favorites against a division rival. That’s honestly how this feels to me. If you look at their record it’s excellent and at a glance their statistics look absolutely ridiculous but the way they’re doing it raises their variance quite a bit. Even the best teams in the world get outplayed sometimes.
I don’t want to entirely dunk on DAMWON, they’re a great team and they have a great chance to represent Korea at Worlds this year but they’re playing on the edge of a cliff in some of these games. It’s exhilarating but it’s not safe. All it takes is one of these overzealous moments to finally go against them and they’ll suddenly look stupid. We saw some of this against T1 before T1 decided to punt BOTH of those games back. Anyway enough about DWG.
Dynamic are coming off of a legitimate 2-1 win over T1 but struggled before losing three in a row to DragonX, Sandbox, and Gen.G. I’ve sung the praises of Dynamics loud and clear all season long so I’ll spare you the soapbox again this time.
The long and short of it is this; DWG are good but they’ve caught some good variance and I don’t think they’re quite as good as their ridiculous statistics and because of this the number here is just way too big. I played Gen.G against Dynamics last week at -500 and -137 on the spread. DAMWON isn’t enough better than that to be -1000. In fact I’d argue that they play a higher variance style and they should be no more than what Gen.G was favored in that series. Gimme the value dogs!
Odds Weighted: 27.85
Underdog Win: 21.13
“G” Projected Total: 25.53 kills
I think that the books’ number is actually close given that I don’t think these lines are accurate whatsoever and this model is factoring in the extremely lopsided odds-weighted to bring this total up. I’d put this at 23.5 or 24.5. Lean over but pass.
DWG game times: 29.16 / 28.67 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
Dynamics game times: 33.29 / 33.84 / 32.75 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.22 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.942 minutes
I’d lean under as Dynamics have shown a willingness to end games early even if it hasn’t quite panned out that way. As it stands I’ll pass.
First Blood: DWG 38.89% / DYN 40%
First Tower: DWG 89.47% / DYN 63.16%
First Dragon: DWG 31.58% / DYN 57.89%
First Herald: DWG 77.78% / DYN 50%
I’ll be taking Dynamics first blood and first dragons given the odds. There’s some value in the first tower for DWG but I do think Dynamics are more than capable of matching with their excellent rate as well. I’ll pass on that market.
The rest are priced appropriately.
Spread: Dynamics +1.5 maps @ +132 (1 unit)(from Tuesday)
Moneyline: Dynamics +542 (0.5 units)(from Tuesday)
Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +795 (0.25 units)(from Tuesday)
Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first blood @ +114 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Dynamics first blood @ +114 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Dynamics first dragon @ +117 (1 unit)
I’m going to drop a recreational dog parlay here. I won’t be tracking this in my spreadsheet but I will be playing this.
Parlay (2): Vici +1.5 maps + Dynamics +1.5 maps @ +335
Parlay (2): Vici ML + Dynamics ML @ +2378
Good luck and see you tomorrow!