Tuesday, August 25th Recap
Suning vs LGD Gaming (Net: +2.35 units)
Sometimes a team just does something that’s so characteristically “them” that you can’t help but laugh. LGD delivered on this early in the morning in a bizarre third place match that resulted in a Suning 3-0 after a tremendous game one throw by LGD. While I don’t think this series was entirely meaningless to these teams you could tell after game one that this was going to be far from normal with seemingly no fight that either team would say no to.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, this match was essentially battling for who would have side selection on Friday and for the duration of the Regional Qualifier which is far from meaningless but there is a good chance these teams probably found it more important to conceal any strategies they might pull out on Friday. About the only “weird” things we saw were a Kramer Vayne in game three and Peanut’s Lillia which doesn’t completely fit his style but is considered in high regard by most professionals (something I’ve been looking into more).
Friday’s match should be interesting. Suning have been the better team and deserve to be favorites in the match but we’ll have to see where the lines end up but I like Suning in the -125 range right now.
LCK Summer 2020
Playoffs – Round One
T1 -769 (-1.5 maps @ -182) vs
Afreeca Freecs +448 (+1.5 maps @ +135, -1.5 maps @ +1000)
Total Maps: 2.5 (over +178 / under -244)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -106)
I’m going to keep this part of this handicap rather simple. Afreeca have taken just a single game against the top four teams in the LCK this season and it was against T1 back on June 26th. They are a combined 1-16 against those top four teams. In those 17 games Afreeca covered the kill spread, which averaged +7.1 kills, just four times. Afreeca are about as clear a gatekeeper team as I’ve ever seen. They look completely lost against the elite competition and, until the end of the season, completely stomped the lower half of the table. Of note, they did start to fade a bit toward the end of the season dropping some games to KT Rolster, Sandbox, and Dynamics in their final three matches as favorites.
Other than winning their first game of that first series back in June, Afreeca have not held a gold lead from ten minutes forward throughout the other four games. Below are their deficits in those games:
Gold Differentials (avg) at 10 / 15 / 20 vs T1: -1775 / -4179 / -6501
Gold Differentials (avg all games) at 10 / 15/ 20 vs top four: -1257 / -3102 / -4945
I think it’s pretty clear that if you’re betting T1 here it’s more based on gut feeling or a different narrative. For instance, maybe you think Clozer struggles under the pressure of his first playoff series, if he even starts in this match. Or maybe you think Afreeca have some weird strategy cooked up to take a game.
I’m not buying it. T1 are a significantly better team through and through. My objective/economy model actually suggests that there is still value in this number believe it or not. Admittedly, the model thinks Afreeca are highly fraudulent. Their metrics actually suggest that they’re the #8 ranked team. While I don’t necessarily think that’s true, it is telling to see that, statistically speaking, particularly against the top of the table, they’ve actually fared worse than some of the other teams below them like KT and Dynamics. Take the T1 -1.5 maps.
Totals:
cCKPG: 25.89
Time-projected: 24.7
Odds-Weighted: 29.63
Underdog Win: 24.79
“G” Projected Total: 26.74 kills
These two teams averaged 25.2 combined kills per game this season (16, 22, 41, 23, 24).
Of T1’s 42 games, 19 fell on or below 21 kills (45.23%), 15 fell on or above 25 kills (35.71%), and the rest 6 out of 42 (14.29%) fell on or between 22-24 kills.
Of Afreeca’s 41 games, 10 fell on or between 22 through 24 kills (24.39%), 17 fell on or below 21 (41.46%), and the rest were 25 or more (34.15%). 75.61% of Afreeca’s games were “not 22 through 24”
Playing both sides creates a synthetic line of ~ -282 but if we were to play beyond 25 we can get this down to about -260. This is a little close to qualify for a play and given T1’s lower CKPG second half I’m just going to pass. These teams also scored 23 and 24 in their most recent meeting last week.
T1 game times: 32.54 / 31.39 / 34.84 (average / in wins / in losses)
AF game times: 32.99 / 34.38 / 31.54 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.77 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.0 minutes
Right on the money. Lean under but I’d pass. Exactly 50% of T1’s games went over 32:00 and their wins averaged a game time of 31.39 minutes.
Other markets:
First Blood: T1 61.9% / AF 56.1%
First Tower: T1 54.76% / AF 43.9%
First Dragon: T1 66.67% / AF 29.27%
First Herald: T1 42.86% / AF 41.46%
I was really hoping to get a better number on Afreeca first blood since that’s one of my favorite underdog props to play when the moneylines are big. Dogs tend to try to get some cheesy or creative leads against superior competition and I could see just that happening here but alas, the number is priced correctly. I do like Afreeca first herald at plus money though.
My Picks:
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -182 (3.64 units)
Prop: Map 1 AF first herald @ +117 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 AF first herald @ +102 (1 unit)
