Monday, September 7th Recap

 

This series was infuriating to watch. KT had a moderate lead in the first game and had forced Afreeca to mountain soul point before Kiin hard carried back-to-back teamfights with some unbelievably good Wukong ultimates that completely turned the course of the game. The next two games weren’t close at all once again hard carried by Kiin in both despite some weird sneaky baron despite an 0-9 kill deficit in game two.  Kiin single handedly took over this series and you could tell early on in game two after Afreeca took a lead that KT were on full tilt.

This is a significantly different day if KT take just one map but this was an absolutely horrible performance. Bono in particular was just dreadful. This was unforgivably bad for having two weeks to prepare. Afreeca aren’t that much better a team but they are capable of punishing a bad performance and that’s part of why they were the gatekeepers this season.

In hindsight I was perhaps a bit too heavy on this but all of the evidence as well as data supported it so I don’t regret the side but should maybe have reconsidered the weight. Nothing about this series went how I expected it to. Sometimes that happens. Just seems like it’s always been when I’ve been overweight. Perhaps the universe is telling me something.

Sometimes you get roasted.

 

Daily Total: -18.97 units

 

Third worst day of the year, worst single series of the year. What can I say this was literally the exact opposite of how I thought this would go.

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Regional Qualifier – Round Two

 

T1 -263 (-1.5 maps @ -115, -2.5 @ +273, +1.5 @ -625) vs

Afreeca Freecs +199 (+1.5 maps @ -111, +2.5 @ -385, -1.5 @ +406, -2.5 @ +1115)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -256 / under +195), 4.5 maps (over +196 / under -263)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -119 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -119)

UPDATE: Starting roster for tonight for T1 is Canna – Ellim – Faker – Gumayusi – Effort via a Tweet by T1 

As risky as it looks benching hypothetically your best player I have to imagine that this wouldn’t have happened if they didn’t think it was the best course of action and this is an organization that has a history of their subs coming in and absolutely dominating. Ellim was excellent when we saw him this year and Gumayusi has been a highly touted prospect for a number of years now and will finally get his chance. Worst case, if it’s a disaster I’d assume we see Teddy and Cuzz back in but after the fairly poor showing from Cuzz last time out I don’t hate this either. DO NOT RULE OUT T1 BECAUSE OF THE SUBS!

T1 do have a tendency to punt games sometimes but they had arguably their worst series of the year in this one and managed to drop it to Afreeca after a rough game one by Clozer and the most questionable Karthus jungle pathing in a PERFECT Karthus jungle spot in game three that more or less lost them the game on the spot. Afreeca were swiftly and decisively dismissed by Gen.G in the next match. While Afreeca get credit for looking much better of late, I think it’s safe to say that the T1 series was much more about T1 losing it than Afreeca winning it. We’ll go 75% fluke.

Going into that series, I wrote in great detail about Afreeca’s struggles against the elite four. Severe gold discrepencies over -1257 / -3102 / -4945 at 10 / 15 / 20 minute marks. Failing to cover an average spread of +7.1 kills against the elite four in 13 out of 17 attempts was also not a good look. The point being, their games against good teams haven’t been close.

T1 were perhaps overpriced for a best-of-three in that instance but this is now a best of five, the word from the broadcast is that Faker is back getting reps in scrims again but this is all hearsay still. I’d assume with their Worlds’ spot on the line that he plays tonight, especially given Clozer’s underwhelming performance in their first game (although it wasn’t entirely his fault).

Does Afreeca beating T1 in a best-of-three close the odds by this much? If you were to extrapolate that -769 price to a best-of-five series it’d be close to -1000 or more and suddenly this is -263? Was that -769 price heavy handed? Probably a little. I don’t think T1 are a lock to win here especially given their weird decision making of late but I think we’re actually getting insane value on them in this spot. The only thing that really scares me is how well Kiin has been playing and how well positioned he is in this metagame but Canna has had success as well and I could see him faring much better than the KT top laners did.

I’m going with T1 here. Line value, fewer mistakes for Afreeca to easily capitalize on, all of the previous Afreeca vs top four teams arguments from the previous meeting, and the fact that, much like the New England Patriots,  “T1 just doesn’t lose these kinds of situations.” If the last meeting was a best-of-five I’m confident T1 would have won despite that egregious error in game three. It took a vast overperformance and an even bigger underperformance for Afreeca to take a 2-1 win. It’ll be much harder in a five game series.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.89

Time-projected: 24.7

Odds-Weighted: 28.78

Underdog Win: 24.79

“G” Projected Total: 26.46 kills

 

I wrote a lot on these totals in my previous article for the playoff matchup between these two and while the books dropped the total by one kill I think there’s a chance this lands right around this number.

The last 8 meetings totals were 16, 22, 41, 23, 24 (regular season) / 14, 22, 17 (playoffs).

Lean under but pass.

 

T1 game times: 32.54 / 31.39 / 34.84 (average / in wins / in losses)

Afreeca game times: 32.99 / 34.38 / 31.535 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.77 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.46 minutes

Pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: T1 61.9% / AF 56.1%

First Tower: T1 54.76% / AF 43.9%

First Dragon: T1 66.67% / AF 29.27%

First Herald:  T1 42.86% / AF 41.46%

We didn’t get a lot of value when the line was significantly further apart last time and that’s remained the case this time around as well. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: T1 -263 (5.26 units)

Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -115 (1.15 units)

Spread: T1 -2.5 maps @ +273 (0.5 units)

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