Monday June 15th Recap
BiliBili vs eStar (Net: -3.45 units)
When you bring ignite to a smite fight you tend to lose. No seriously you can’t make this stuff up. eStar’s jungler, Wei, accidentally chose ignite over smite in game one of this series. How that happens is beyond me considering on the tournament server settings are saved and what not. Unless they were practicing 1v1’s or something I don’t see how… eStar was surprisingly competitive in that game too. They completely smashed game two on the back of arguably the best Blitzcrank of all time ShiauC putting on a clinic. Game three they got a little bit overzealous early and were outplayed pretty badly in the skirmishes top side by BLG which put their Kayle ahead and the rest was history.
I don’t want to just automatically say eStar would have 2-0’d this series, they did lose game three after all, but it sure as hell felt like it would have been at least a moneyline win if they didn’t spot BLG the confidence of a literal free win.
I can’t really say much about this one. This was an actual fluke.
Vici vs Team WE (Net: -2.92 units)
Jordan from the Discord had the best analogy I’ve ever heard for Team WE:
“Everytime WE are up to bat they close their eyes, swing, and it goes straight to second base where the second baseman just dives and misses it and the ball rolls to the outfield ending up in a triple.”
I don’t want to call Team WE entirely lucky. As a matter of fact I’m actually rather bullish on the boys in red, but the amount of times they’ve been utterly destroyed in the early game only for teams to completely botch a close against them or make a terrible macro decision has certainly helped them to more wins than they probably deserve.
I was more or less right on in my evaluation of this matchup. Vici took the Syndra, pinned Teacherma down and took him out of the game, had a good snowball going in game one and just never secured a soul. Forge has bad games from time to time. He wasn’t entirely bad, he did his job perfectly early on in game one but the late game decision making was poor and getting caught flashing early with Twisted Fate ultimate still available is a death sentence in team fights.
There’s a lot more I could say about this match but Team WE, as much as I love them, are getting away with murder in drafts and their opponents are doing a lot of the late game decision making for them. It’s making me skeptical.
LPL Total: -6.37 units
Daily Total Net: -6.37 units
Yet another disaster of a day. The eStar fiasco followed by Vici steamrolling game one only to decide “nah we’re good” on securing a soul at any point was rather triggering (they weren’t outscaled yet in that game they just played like trash). You really can’t make this stuff up in the LPL. Historically the Summer in the LPL is my worst league but I actually feel like I’ve got a solid grasp on it and we’re just catching these insane outcomes over and over again. All I can do is just trust the process, continue evaluating and what will be will be, hopefully on the profitable side of things for a change because this is has been brutal.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 2
Overall LPL Trends:
7 out of 22 matches have gone to a third map
Favorites are 14-8 (12-10 ATS) this season
Favorites are 27-24 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 28 out of 51 games (last ten 11 out of 22 over)
Time totals have gone UNDER in 33 out of 51 games (last ten 12 out of 22 under)
LGD Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -175) vs
Dominus Esports +470 (+1.5 maps @ +137, -1.5 @ +892)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under-116)
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -123 / +7.5 @ -105
Time Total: OTB
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
DMO – Natural, Xiaopeng, Twila, Helper, Mitsuki
LGD are 2-0 (0-2 ATS) as favorites this season
LGD are 4-2 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone under in 4 out of 6 of LGD’s games
DMO are 0-2 (0-2 ATS) in all games this season
DMO are 1-3 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone OVER in all four of DMO’s games
So this more or less boils down to how you feel about “is any team this favored over anybody, especially in the LPL?” If you want to try to dip your toe into those inviting underdog waters I’ll just remind you that betting large underdogs in the LPL, even last season where dogs were excellent, was NOT a profitable endeavor. With that said, of the 10 matches that involved and underdog of +662 or longer, 7 were Victory Five, only two covered the spread and only one won outright (eStar in week one vs FPX as +1060 dogs).
The thing is, in season ten, if two teams just draft for scaling it’s anybody’s ballgame. There’s probably some value on the LGD -1.5 even at this lofty number but I don’t entirely trust this team yet. Maybe they loosen up for a game and play sloppy and overzealous like we’ve seen some of the other favorites do. Maybe they sub out some players for game two after a win in game one.
I’m staying away from sides on this one altogether although you could justify a taste on the Dominus spread if you really want to play the narratives.
I do think this is the more likely of the two upsets tomorrow.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 25.22 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 21.76 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 25.44 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Dominus, 27.35 kills.
Considering the high likelihood of an LGD win and the projection in that scenario which heavily weights LGD’s 15.0 kills per win this season (and some 19.53 from last season), I like the under quite a bit in this spot. As an added bonus, Dominus have been favoring splitting with a focus on Natural in a side lane so IF they were to win this one it’s safe to assume that it would be in a lower kill affair.
The average margin of defeat (AMOD) in the LPL this split is about 10.6 kills but given that I’m on the under in this situation and think this will likely be a clean and boring series of games I’m skeptical to take a spread as high. The numbers indicate some value on the LGD -8.5 @ -101 but I’ll just be passing on sides and sticking to totals here. If you want to dabble there, favorites are 27-24 against the kill spread this season.
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (0.58 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +104 (0.32 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +123 (0.16 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 21.5 @ +149 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -108 (0.54 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ +110 (0.3 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 22.5 @ +131 (0.14 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 21.5 @ +156 (0.1 units)
TOP Esports -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -323) vs
OMG +793 (+1.5 maps @ +237, -1.5 @ +1115)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -103 / under -127)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -105 / +10.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
TOP are 3-1 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone over in 3 out of 4 TOP games
OMG are 2-5 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone OVER in 4 out of 7 OMG games
Icon nearly stole a game by himself in their last series but I’m not bothering on this one. Read the breakdown on long underdogs in the last match. Given that I think we’ll get an under, the gigantic kill spreads, and limited markets on them (alt markets jump from -9.5 to -6.5…) I’m just going to be staying away from the sides altogether in this one.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 29.379 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 29.33 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 29.475 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case OMG, 27.43 kills.
All of the numbers project very high totals for this game but it’s because TOP have faced the bloody Rogue Warriors and played a 26 kill per game average series against JDG leaving the averages high even weighted towards last season. TOP aren’t afraid to toy with their food and showed a propensity to do it last season even before JackeyLove joined the squad but OMG haven’t exactly been putting up a fight in most of their games with a 5.19 kill per loss and only 22.76 combined kills per game.
I like the under.
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -135 (1.35 units)
I’ll be back later today or earlier tomorrow with an LCK Preview ahead of the Summer season opening on Wednesday morning.
See you then!