Monday, July 6th Recap
Team WE vs Dominus (Net: +4.67 units)
My objective+economy focused model actually likes Dominus more than the public and has them a clear cut above four other teams but they’re being priced as one of the teams in that LNG/RW/BLG tier. They’ve been a significantly better team of late with this new roster showing signs of life. Their spike performances have been impressive. Now I’m not saying they’re good by any means but I don’t think we should be too surprised that WE dropped a game here. By design, WE are just going to lose some games to snowballing and they’ve been just a bit lucky that teams have thrown with massive leads on them multiple times this season. Team WE are still a great team, don’t hold this match against them, just realize that they’re due for a little regression and aren’t quite as good as their record.
I’ll note that Xiaopeng is probably playing himself into a job somewhere next season if not here. He’s been extremely good at getting the ball rolling early in games even if it doesn’t always result in wins. He’s like a poor mans Jiejie/Peanut.
JD Gaming vs EDG (Net: -1.79 units)
JDG nearly punted game one of this series after picking up infernal soul. EDG ended up getting elder and really made a game out of what should have been a JDG blowout based on early happenings.
Game two was action-packed and back and forth for the first 15 minutes or so before JDG managed to win a big fight in the top river around the 16 minute mark. EDG fought back with herald to keep the gold within a couple thousand but at this point Yagao’s Leblanc was way ahead of schedule as well as Kanavi on Kindred and it was going to make things very difficult for EDG’s team fight wombo combo composition.
Thought both teams played very well other than the bizarre throw from JDG in game one that nearly resulted in a loss. Other than that, lots of close, smart fights that came down to the wire. This series easily could have been an EDG 2-0 or gone to a third game. Very thin margins in the LPL.
LPL Total: +2.88 units
Daily Total Net: +2.88 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 2
LPL Trends (through today):
Favorites are 45-19 straight up but 27-37 against the map spread
Favorites are 75-81 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 84 out of 156 games
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 98 out of 156 games
Favorites have covered their team total in just 74 out of 156 games
Underdogs have covered their team total in an even 78 out of 156 games
Vici Gaming -345 (-1.5 maps @ +106) vs
Rogue Warriors +248 (+1.5 maps @ -135, -1.5 @ +566)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)
VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Hang
RW – Holder, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
Vici are 2-1, 1-2 against the map spread, as favorites this season (BLG, V5, LNG)
Vici are 8-6 against the kill spread
Kill total UNDERS have gone 10-4 in Vici games this season
RW are 0-7, 2-5 against the map spread, as underdogs this season (two wins vs JDG, OMG)
Kill total OVERS are 12-4 in Rogue Warriors games this season
I loved the look Vici showed against eStar in their last match. Hang has been excellent on Taric every time he’s played him this year and I think the pick is outstanding into most LPL teams who tend to fight a little bit recklessly sometimes (all the time…). Rogue Warriors showed some signs of life in two out of their last three series and had a lead in game two against EDG before throwing it away. Unfortunately that’s been all too common this season with the Rogue Warriors. They remind me, in many ways, of the 2019 Jin Air Green Wings in the LCK in that they were capable of jumping out to leads on people and actually had a surprisingly good early game but just looked completely lost from the 15 minute point forward.
Vici have been a team that has performed better than their record. My objective/economy focused model has them rated as the 5th best team in the LPL in a tier with LGD, WE, FPX, and JDG. Their recent performance has been even stronger. I like the approach this team has to the game and I think their players are solid, if not a bit underrated. That said, they sometimes fall into drafts that are a bit too difficult for them to execute. Recently that hasn’t been the case.
I think Vici are hitting their stride while Rogue Warriors are probably the worst or second worst team in the LPL. Vici should roll here.
Odds Weighted: 27.04
Underdog Win: 26.97
“G” Projected Total: 27. 21 kills
Lean to the overs but not enough value here.
VG game times: 31.72 / 32.02 / 31.56 (average / in wins / in losses)
RW game times: 31.96 / 35.62 / 31.44 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.84 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.23 minutes
I’d lean under considering RW’s loss times especially of late but not enough value and no strong enough inclination from me toward either side to make a play.
First Blood: VG 57.14% / RW 56.25%
First Tower: VG 50% / RW 37.5%
First Dragon: VG 64.29% / RW 37.5%
First Herald: VG 57.14% / RW 56.25%
Rogue Warriors first herald has some value at +112 for essentially a coin flip but the rest are out of range given the odds.
Moneyline: Vici Gaming -345 (3.45 units)
Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +106 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 Rogue Warriors first Herald @ +112 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 Rogue Warriors first Herald @ +112 (0.5 units)
Suning -213 (-1.5 maps @ +153) vs
eStar +164 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +401)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -105
Time Total: 34:00 (over +138 / under -182)
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC
Suning are 3-0, 2-1 against the map spread, as favorites this season (vs LNG, RW, DMO)
Suning are 5-2 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 19 Suning games (5 out of 7 as favorites)
eStar are 0-4, 2-2 against the map spread, as underdogs (vs LGD, RNG, FPX, V5)
Kill totals have gone OVER in 8 out of 10 games where eStar were underdogs
eStar and V5 was a significantly closer match then the box score might indicate with a lot of leads thrown back and forth which was perhaps the most concerning part and the biggest takeaway for both squads moving forward. I still think this eStar team is better than their record and interestingly they’ll be facing mostly middle of the table teams like themselves for the remainder of the season so we’ll be able to get a decent measure.
My objective/economy model likes Suning quite a bit here which makes sense given their play style and the quality of their wins and strength of opponent so far this season. Suning have only lost to EDG, Invictus, and JDG, two of the best teams in the league and a likely playoff contender in EDG. They’ve also defeated LGD 2-0 and Team WE 2-1 both of which the model has in its top six. Suning aren’t a sexy team but they’re rock solid.
eStar’s film is much better than their record and numbers. As frustrating as the throw was against V5, especially because I was on them in that insance, the fact that they were doing that well in both games against arguably the second best team in the LPL so far is impressive to me. They have never been a statistically impressive team even when they were atop the LPL last split. They’ve also faced a brutal schedule including V5, FPX, and RNG in their past four.
I’m going to take a shot on the underdog here. Suning are deserving favorites but this number is simply too big especially after the inflation from the loss.
Underdog Win: 25.56
“G” Projected Total: 25.82 kills
This plays out to an over in all of the projected scenarios. Makes sense.
SN game times: 32.32 / 31.26 / 33.77 (average / in wins / in losses)
EST game times: 31.86 / 31.54 / 32.11 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.09 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.03 minutes
I just wish they’d give me multiple options but I guess that’s too dangerous for the books.
6 out of 19 Suning games have gone over 34:00, 6 out of 20 eStar games have gone over.
Given that only 30.77% of the outcomes for these teams results in an over and we’re getting -182 for an implied 64.5% (with the vig) there’s still an edge here. Map 1 only given that it’s -182 vs the -204 on map two.
First Blood: SN 36.84% / EST 55%
First Tower: SN 52.63% / EST 80%
First Dragon: SN 57.89% / EST 60%
First Herald: SN 31.57% / EST 50%
eStar first tower at +103 is a nice value play here given the delta. First herald for half stake as well. First blood is too juiced to take eStar.
Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -196 (1.96 units)
Moneyline: eStar +164 (0.5 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +401 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -182 (1.82 units)(map 1 only)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ +103 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ +103 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first heralds @ -116 (1.16 units)