Monday, July 27th Recap

 

Vici vs Dominus (Net: +5.63 units)

Dominus are quite bad… not much else to say here. Vici are pretty good and are going to make a push for a playoff spot. I wouldn’t rule them out either.

OMG vs Suning (Net: -0.975 units)

This was a really REALLY weird series that OMG honestly should have 2-0’d. Suning and WE have been doing this all season where they’ll surrender leads sometimes and just let the other team beat themselves. As such, they’ll probably struggle against the elite teams but  they’re also capable of a snowball like we saw in game three. While I don’t think they have the same upside, Suning remind me a lot of WE and early season Invictus. This team is clearly good they just get themselves into some odd situations sometimes. They’re a deserving playoff team and are still underrated overall but they’re not quite in that elite category.

Eric looked OUTSTANDING in his debut series for OMG despite having the series losing mistake in game three. He was incredibly efficient with limited resources, managed his 1v2 with a lot of savvy to allow Sora to roam, and had a lot of really nuanced, intricate details that he seemed to pay attention to that made for a very mature first showing. This kid looks like he could be really good and while I think Smlz has been unfairly dunked on by the community when he’s actually had a solid+ career, even this year, this Eric kid looks like the future for OMG. Hopefully it’s a bright one because OMG seemingly never put it together even though they’ve got these great young players like Curse and Icon. OMG are the Edmonton Oilers, a million top five draft picks and even land Connor McDavid and they still can’t seem to put a good team together. Let’s hope I’m wrong for their sake or he’ll be picked up by a better team.

 

LPL Total: +4.655 units

 

Daily Total Net: +4.655 units

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 9 – Day 2

 

 

BiliBili Gaming +123 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +299) vs

Rogue Warriors -156 (-1.5 maps @ +205)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -114 / -2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Starting Lineups:

RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley

BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo

Trends:

Rogue Warriors have only been favored once (vs eStar last week)

BiliBili are 2-8 straight up, 6-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +287)

BiliBili are 11-14 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.2)

BiliBili are 7-6 against the kill spread in their past five series as underdogs

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 8 out of 13 of BLG’s previous 5 appearances as underdogs

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 7 of 12 in RW’s past 5 appearances

 

I know Rogue Warriors have looked much better of late winning four series in a row but have people forgotten that this team was winless until that point? They’ve pulled a few upsets against FPX, who severely disrespected them in the draft, and LGD who frequently lose to themselves. Their other wins were against a struggling eStar and the bottom dwelling Dominus. Wuming and Haro have been putting on a show but so have FoFo and Meteor since his return. BiliBili played a competitive series against Suning, destroyed Dominus (RW 2-1’d), a competitive series vs Team WE that they probably should have won, and should have taken game two against JDG in their most recent appearance.

The economy/objective model, which factors in trending performance, STILL has BiliBili with an edge here despite RW winning 8 of their past 9 games. This line has moved from +110 to +123 in the past few hours. This is a slam dunk BiliBili bet to me. Not only to I think they’re a better team, but that they’re stylistically equipped to handle the kinds of things RW have been doing.

I’ll be pretty heavy weight on this as it’s one of the more egregious pricings I’ve seen this season.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.82

Time-projected: 25.83

Odds Weighted: 25.76

Underdog Win: 26.52

“G” Projected Total: 25.80 kills

Given the propensity these two have had for OVERs of late, you’d think I lean that way since the action should be fast and furious in this one but I feel like we’re more likely to get really snowbally games one way or the other in this one. I like the under for a half stake.

 

RW game times: 33.59 / 36.12 / 31.96 (average / in wins / in losses)

BLG  game times:  32.59 / 33.12 / 32.25 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 33.09 minutes

Odds Weighted:  33.44 minutes

While both of these teams have had some issues closing, which is my only real concern for both the kill and time totals here, I find it really weird that you’ve got two really fast-paced teams with such a high time total. Under feels like a slam dunk.

Other Markets:

First Blood: RW 57.14% / BLG 46.67%

First Tower: RW 42.85% / BLG 53.33%

First Dragon: RW 50% / BLG 46.67%

First Herald:  RW 50% / BLG 53.33%

BiliBili first tower and the under 4.5 dragons are plays I’m going to like here given the implied high time total that I think is way off given how these teams WANT to play (even if they don’t always execute on that).

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -270 (5.4 units)

Moneyline: BiliBili +123 (2 units)

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +299 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 26.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 26.5 @ +105 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: Map 1 BLG first tower @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 2 BLG first tower @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 1 Total Dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +143 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Total Dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +142 (1 unit)

  

 

EDward Gaming -345 (-1.5 maps @ +104) vs

LNG Esports +249 (+1.5 maps @ -132, -1.5 @ +588)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -114 / +6.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -133 / under +102)

Starting Lineups:

EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko

LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan

Trends:

EDG are 3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the map spread as favorites this season (avg odds: -375)

EDG are 4-8 against the kill spread as favorites this season (avg spread: -6.3)

LNG are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as underdogs this season (avg odds: +404)

LNG are 9-15 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.9)

 

LNG have had three individual games where they ate their Wheaties and actually put up a proactive fight in their past three matches which is roughly triple their rate for the rest of the season. It might be too late for them but it appears that they’re loosening up a bit. That said, they still lost those series even if they won the games. LNG are still like a bad version of OMG. They might not be Dominus level bad in the numbers but they’re still a pretty gun-shy team most of the time.

EDG went through a massive slump in the middle of the season but their past two matches against Vici and FunPlus have been pretty good showings for them. Since returning to Jiejie as the starting jungler after Junjia seemingly fell off a cliff with a handful of awful series in a row, EDG have been a much stronger looking team. Now, EDG are still playing somewhat out of their typical character. That solid, fundamental game has sort of gone by the wayside and they’re playing pretty fast and loose, especially with Xiaoxiang in the lineup. Scout has also been playing much better than he did earlier in the Summer.

This is a must win for EDG who would need to win their next four series to even have a chance at playoffs and even then they’d need a lot of help for that to happen. I’d expect them to take care of business here but EDG have been involved in some of the most bizarre series and individual games in the world this season. It seems like those odd ones follow them around or something because it’s been that way all year. (cue the *record scratch* “you’re probably wondering how I got here” clip).

I think EDG take care of business here. They are a pretty poor stylistic matchup as they’ve preferred to be very aggressive early of late and unless you want to bet on poor execution it’s hard to see a path to series victory for LNG here. EDG excel in all the areas that LNG are weak and EDG’s weaknesses are overshadowed by LNG’s even weaker performance in most of those areas. It’s the end of the season in the LPL and weird stuff tends to happen but you saw today the difference between a team that “must win” and one that was eliminated  and I think we’ll see something similar, albeit probably sloppier here. EDG roll.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.16

Time-projected: 24.61

Odds-Weighted: 25.77

Underdog Win:  24.94

“G” Projected Total: 24.85 kills

This is a tough handicap. EDG tend to post larger kill totals when they win (avg 18.5 KPW) but LNG also tend to roll over. If you think EDG play this one closer to the vest and cleaner then the under isn’t a bad play here, especially if you think we see the Eeyore version of LNG and not the ate their Wheaties for breakfast version. I’ll be passing.

 

EDG game times: 34.54 / 36.92 / 32.96 (average / in wins / in losses)

LNG game times: 31.8 / 33.46 / 31.25 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.17 minutes

Odds Weighted: 33.85 minutes

Again, EDG’s totals are boosted by a few particularly weird games but it wouldn’t surprise me to see another here as they can’t seem to avoid them. I want to say EDG snowball a win and under no problem but 32 is a really low time total for an EDG game. I’ll pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: EDG 60% / LNG 42.86%

First Tower: EDG 50% / LNG 28.57%

First Dragon: EDG 30% / LNG 39.29%

First Herald:  EDG 56.67% / LNG 50%

There’s some value in first dragon for LNG but I really just think they’re going to get rolled here. The rest of these are pretty reasonably priced.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: EDG -345 (3.45 units)

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +104 (0.5 units)

Team Total: Map 1 EDG OVER 14.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)

Team Total: Map 2 EDG OVER 14.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)

 

 

 

 

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