Monday, July 20th Recap
Invictus vs Victory Five (Net: +6.76 units)
This was an outstanding series by both teams. We got to see what they’re good at which is always a pleasure.
Invictus showed excellent discipline in game three to thwart the early snowball, a game plan that I mentioned yesterday and that I think we’ll be seeing more and more against V5. Still, having that plan is one thing and executing is another. V5 are still excellent but I’m a little concerned that if the jungle meta is impacted before or during playoffs that this team relies way too much on Weiwei on certain champions.
One more note, it was excellent to see V5 still proactively playing to their win conditions from a deficit. It shows that while this team might lean heavily on having a lead, that they don’t look lost if things go south. We’ve seen that a few times this season from them which is important for a young team.
Team WE vs LGD Gaming (Net: -4.925 units)
Game one was actually pretty close through the 20 minute mark before getting blown open. It wasn’t perfect but relative to LGD standards it was somewhat disciplined. Game two LGD just jumped out to a lead and ran WE over before it mattered.
I think the biggest takeaway from this series is that LGD had an excellent game plan for WE banning away Galio and Aphelios which might become the norm vs Team WE. It should have been awhile ago but the adjustment is being made now. Team WE need to show me something else. I don’t think they’re bad but they won’t be making any waves in playoffs without broadening their horizons.
LPL Total: +1.835 units
Daily Total Net: +1.835 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 2
OMG +268 (+1.5 maps @ -125, -1.5 @ +638) vs
Fun Plus Phoenix -370 (-1.5 maps @ -102)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -119 / -7.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)
Starting Lineups:
FPX – GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
Trends:
FPX are 5-4 straight up, 2-7 against the map spread as favorites (excluding vs LNG avg odds: -351)
FPX are 9-15 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.83)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 14 out of 24 games where FPX were favored (avg total: 25.6)
OMG are 1-6 straight up, 5-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +182)
OMG are 9-9 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.2)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 12 out of 18 games where OMG were underdogs (avg total: 24.6)
OMG have covered their team total 10 out of 18 games as underdogs
Opponents have covered their team total 9 out of 18 games as favorites vs OMG
GimGoon is back in for FPX. Before everyone starts pointing to this teams record with and without GimGoon like this is some V1per situation, I’ll remind everyone that FPX were one of the best teams in the world and utterly dominated the LPL for basically an entire calendar year under GimGoon. Obviously his numbers are going to look better. Khan was picked up in the offseason and basically offered more upside which is why FPX went out and got him. They wanted to become a more versatile team. They took their lumps but ultimately they have become a more diverse team from a strategic standpoint.
To me this move feels a little panicky but also just like a change for the sake of change. FPX haven’t been losing because of Khan’s performance or poor team chemistry. They’ve been playing pretty damn well besides the Rogue Warriors series where they just flat out disrespected RW too much in the draft. You can play well and lose. FPX have faced JDG, TOP, Vici, RNG, and Victory Five in 5 of their past 6 series. Before that it was eStar and Invictus. That’s a challenging past couple weeks that many teams could play well in and lose. Would you fault anybody for dropping 10 out of 15 games to that murderers row (besides RW)? No. To me that’s what’s happening here. So before people start criticizing one of the best players in his position on the planet (not that GimGoon isn’t) I’d remind you that this is probably just a mix it up for the sake of mixing it up type of move. You can interpret that however you like but this doesn’t look like a “this team doesn’t gel with Khan” situation to me so let’s drop that lazy narrative at the door.
Another angle is that this is a strategic move. Maybe GimGoon has been cooking up some spicy picks or something? We haven’t seen him for awhile. GimGoon is one of the better weakside top laners in the world. That’s his niche but he’s more than capable of playing outside of that role albeit probably not the same level as Khan. Maybe this is just to keep teams guessing and prepared for both?
The main thing I’m trying to get across here is to look at this with a level head. FPX have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the season with their most difficult matchup vs Suning. It’s very likely they make playoffs regardless of who is playing top lane if they go 4-1 or even 3-2 to finish. So if and when they win four or five of their next five with GimGoon in the lineup, don’t just assume it was because of that change. It could have very little to do with it. Enter the game without bias and evaluate based on what you see. If GimGoon comes in and just goes ballistic and carries these games or FPX are a markedly different team then we can attribute some of that to him. If they just do the same things and whoop on some mediocre and bad teams it might not necessarily have anything to do with whether it was Khan or GimGoon.
Onto handicapping this series.
Given the difficult schedule of late and the fact that FPX lost to the one easy match on that schedule, the model is really down on them because it partially weights trending performance. OMG are also at their second highest rating of the season of late so the model loves a play on the dogs here but it’s important to understand context of what you’re seeing and SOS is something I’m working on baking in to future iterations.
As mentioned above, FunPlus haven’t been playing badly they’ve just been losing. Considering the schedule they’ve faced and look at the following gold differential numbers over the past 15 games.
Gold Differential at 10 minutes: -414.4
Gold Differential at 15 minutes: -455.6
Gold Differential at 20 minutes: -507.9
Gold Differential per min ROG (rest of game/post 20): +8.994
Gold Differential per minute total: -132.48
Are these numbers good? Absolutely not but they aren’t bad. I’d also advise you to watch the film. This team isn’t playing badly.
OMG are coming off of their light week and a fairly decisive 1-2 loss to eStar after taking game one. Overall, OMG have been a better team than public perception but still not a particularly great team. Their feature player Icon has had some very “off” performances of late, particularly on Ekko and without him stepping up to carry the load OMG have had a very difficult time stringing together any sort of momentum in the past three weeks against a fairly light schedule that only includes LGD as as “tough” matchup (LNG, RW, BLG, eStar were the rest). I don’t want to call OMG entirely fraudulent because they do have decent economy numbers and have been trying to evolve into a more proactive team which are both positive signs, but this isn’t a good team overall and their improvement hasn’t been enough or at a fast enough pace to keep up.
This is going to completely fly in the face of the numbers and “value” but I just don’t see any way FPX lose this series unless they’re on full tilt from this losing streak. As much as I’ve talked about the GimGoon/Khan decision and the pro’s and con’s of it, I do think that this will likely end up being a good move for FPX if for nothing else than to break them out of this funk they’re currently in even if I think that funk is purely in their head. FPX should stomp this.
Totals:
cCKPG: 26.495
Time-projected: 27.27
Odds Weighted: 25.93
Underdog Win: 34.33
“G” Projected Total: 26.564 kills
OMG tend to lose quietly but FPX can win in style or in a clean, methodical manner. We’ve seen a lot of both. The model loves an over play here and it makes some sense given OMG’s slightly more proactive demeanor or late but given the stakes I doubt FPX will be playing with their food here. If anything I’d lean under but given the large gap between these numbers I’ll pass.
FPX game times: 30.83 / 30.455 / 31.15 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 33.71 / 35.25 / 32.57 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.267 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.95 minutes
I like the under quite a bit in this spot.
Other Markets:
First Blood: FPX 60.714% / OMG 42.31%
First Tower: FPX 39.28% / OMG 30.76%
First Dragon: FPX 53.57% / OMG 53.85%
First Herald: FPX 42.86% / OMG 46.16%
If you consider that this price is already inflated and that the “value” is on OMG then the prop markets are actually a great place to attack that given the large moneyline. Again, keep in mind FPX have faced the hardest schedule in the LPL so far. I like FPX first blood but think it’s worth taking the best odds at a few of these for OMG.
My Picks:
Moneyline: FPX -370 (3.7 units)
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 1 FPX first blood @ -152 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 FPX first blood @ -152 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ +126 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ +126 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 OMG first herald @ +117 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first herald @ +117 (0.5 units)
Vici Gaming -154 (-1.5 maps @ +199) vs
EDward Gaming +121 (+1.5 maps @ -263, -1.5 @ +307)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -125 / +3.5 @ -104
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +101 / under -132)
Starting Lineups:
VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro
EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
Vici are 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -192)
Vici are 5-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.0)
Kill Totals have gone under in 15 out of 23 Vici games
Vici have covered their team total team total 12 out of 23 games
EDG are 0-5 straight up, 2-3 against the map spread as underdogs this season (avg odds: +205)
EDG are 6-6 against the kill spread as underdogs
EDG… yikes. Talk about a free fall. So EDG were looking like their same old selves throughout the first half regardless of the lineup they marched out but a few really bad losses, a few poor series from JunJia, and the introduction of a rookie top laner in Xiaoxiang and this team appears to be plummeting. In Xiaoxiang’s defense, he looked good in his first series despite having the series losing mistake which looked more like a bad call the team backed out of leaving him out to dry but he was pretty bad in their last outing. Weirdly, Scout played one of his better series in their last match in a loss.
You used to be able to trust EDG to be one of the “adults in the room” in the LPL. Their macro focus, albeit imperfect at times, versatility, and experience gave them an expectation of consistency but that simply hasn’t been the case this Summer. At 3-7 this is more or less a do-or-die series for EDG’s season as they’d likely have to win a minimum of five of their remaining six series and likely have to win all six.
Vici Gaming are a team that I’ve been going to bat for in recent weeks and I think that their performance in the past three series vs FPX, JDG, and most impressively TOP have really earned a lot of respect from people. This team is good. Are they great? Maybe not yet but they’re certainly good enough to challenge the other top LPL teams and they’ve been steadily improving as the season goes on too.
I’m rolling with Vici to effectively end EDG’s season here. I could understand a play on the other side of this matchup if you’re into the “circling the wagons for the last stand” narrative but EDG have looked really good against elite competition of late and EDG, despite a few bizarre games that they should have won, just haven’t looked like themselves.
Totals:
cCKPG: 26.52
Time-projected: 26.39
Odds-Weighted: 27.84
Underdog Win: 32.23
“G” Projected Total: 26.92 kills
EDG have had some really wild games of late and Vici had that hilarious near hour long game against TOP which is boosting these numbers a bit. Still, I expect this to be an over with a lot of action early and often. If EDG end up winning there’s the added bonus that their games tend to go long and are high in kills.
VG game times: 32.18 / 31.61 / 32.56 (average / in wins / in losses)
EDG game times: 34.78 / 37.12 / 33.37 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.48 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.493 minutes
Vici need film review to tell the truth about some of their numbers. This team wants to play fast and end games quickly but just looking at their numbers wouldn’t tell you that. EDG tend to take their sweet time in wins with methodical closes although it’s been far from methodical of late.
I actually like a play on the under here. 34:00 is a pretty high total and given how much I like Vici to win the series I think this could be over pretty quickly anyway despite what the numbers suggest.
Other markets:
First Blood: VG 52% / EDG 58.33%
First Tower: VG 52% / EDG 45.83%
First Dragon: VG 52% / EDG 33.33%
First Herald: VG 60% / EDG 58.33%
These markets are all priced pretty tightly.
My Picks:
Moneyline: Vici Gaming -154 (3.08 units)
Spread: Vici Gaming -1.5 maps @ +199 (0.5 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
