Monday, July 13th Recap

 

TOP Esports vs Victory Five (Net: -0.32 units)

This series delivered on the hype!

Game one we saw some vintage JackeyLove greedy positioning cost them a fight in the top river in the mid game although there’s a chance they lose that fight anyway. Realistically, already had enough of a lead that that mistake likely didn’t matter. Victory Five were able to snowball a drake win before TOP’s team composition got online. If TOP were able to get any dragons or stabilize for a few more minutes while Jackey got online I think they could have team fought their way to a win in this one but they couldn’t hold on long enough.

Game two was another attempt at a similar approach. TOP tried to stabilize and showed a blueprint that I think other teams might try against V5 moving forward. They banned away Thresh, Graves, and Nidalee, took first picked Trundle which discourages and Olaf pick and leaves Weiwei’s pool lacking for a true “tempo” fast clearing jungler which has been such a huge part of V5’s identity this season. Also taking Thresh away from ppgod while also being a great catch all support in the current meta is smart. They were able to get 369’s Ornn ahead of schedule and the Cassiopeia from Knight made things difficult. I was a little surprised by the Sylas pick in game two and not something that could lane more effectively against Cass.

Game three was the opposite. TOP tried to pick something that could brawl early but also had decent scaling, a balanced draft, but V5 made the right read and went over-the-top with the scaling of Aphelios+Kayle. Knight put in an absolutely insane performance in this game and nearly solo carried it on Sylas with just some of the most ridiculous play I’ve ever seen but ultimately the Kaisa pick doomed TOP. That champion wants to dive in an against Kayle ultimate you don’t exactly want to be doing that. Jackey couldn’t really do much in this game. You could criticize the baron call but they had to get the game over. I wish they turned and took the fight instead of racing to finish it but tough decisions.

I’m impressed at the versatility V5 showed in this series but ultimately I think the game three draft doomed TOP Esports. Kaisa did nothing in that spot. Still, this was an outstanding series and if it wasn’t already abundantly clear, these are the two best teams in the LPL. Yea I’m not sure what universe we’re in either.

 

Suning vs BiliBili (Net: +2.05 units)

This was a very competitive series and it’s unfortunate that it had to follow up TOP vs V5 because there were a lot of really good things by both teams here.

Game one was close SwordArt’s Tahm Kench and Huanfeng’s Senna proved too much for BiliBili’s traditional 2-core to overcome in game one. Bin also put in a hell of a performance in a counter matchup against Kingen’s Mordekaiser.

Game two we got to see ADD come in and play top lane Zilean against Ornn. He must be talking to Ikssu. Lots of close fights and eventually BiliBili got it done in 40+ minutes.

Game three we got back to a more traditional look which included Huanfeng on Jhin which was cool. BLG actually had a 3-0 drake lead heading into the 20 minute mark. Suning realized they were too far down and forced a 20 minute baron that they managed to get with limited casualties. The next dragon fight was on a knife’s edge but after a long dance back and forth Suning were able to secure it even through the disruption of Kindred and Bard ultimates. They eventually clawed their way back into the game through some incredible Zoe poke and picked up the next dragon and baron.

Game three could have gone either way. Like I said this series was really close with a lot of high level play by both teams. It’s good to see BLG continuing to improve and Suning remaining steady. A lot of people think this Suning team is fraudulent but they’ve given me no reason to believe so. I wish they’d show some different looks but I say the same thing about Team WE and it works for them.

LPL Total: +1.73 units

 

Daily Total Net: +1.73 units

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 2

 

 

 

Team WE -625 (-1.5 maps @ -149) vs

LNG Esports +408 (+1.5 maps @ +117, -1.5 @ +883)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -109 / +8.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Starting Lineups:

WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Iwandy

Trends:

Team WE are 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites

Team WE are 4-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.5)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 16 out of 24 WE games

Time Totals have gone OVER in 14 out of 24 WE games

LNG are 2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the map spread as underdogs (1x 2-0 sweep vs RNG)

LNG are 6-10 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.2)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 16 games where LNG were underdogs

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 16 games where LNG were underdogs

 

Team WE finally got their light week after a very busy schedule. They’ve played 24 games already this season trailing only Invictus and eStar’s 26 and managed the schedule quite well scoring a lot of solid wins.

LNG look like the worst team in the LPL and have lost 8 straight games albeit against the difficult schedule of Vici, BLG, TOP, and V5 in their past four matches. They did have a game win against Vici. Their average margin of defeat in this frame? 11.625 kills. Ooof… It’s not that surprising given that they haven’t scored more than 5 kills in their past 8 games. LNG’s overly conservative style is simply not suited for the trials of the LPL. Now if we look back a bit to their series against some other teams earlier in the season … it doesn’t get much better. You’re looking at the worst team folks.

Now just because WE have been solid fundamentally doesn’t mean that they’re without their warts. If they continue to let teams jump out to gold leads on them every game they’ll eventually have problems. The thing is, LNG aren’t the team to jump out to a lead on anyone unless you screw it up. We talked about this ad nauseum earlier in the season. LNG are in the midst of a brutal run and the model accounts for trending numbers to some degree but at an astounding -2730 composite GD at 15 that might be the worst number I’ve ever seen (and it scores in the less than 1 percentile). The way to beat Team WE is to jump out to a lead that they’ll gladly give you and bring it home before they outscale you. LNG aren’t the team to do that.

I’ll be taking Team WE to sweep this. While I think Team WE are somewhat overrated in general I don’t think this is the matchup that can exploit them. LNG are the worst power rated team in the four major regions and the worst in the LPL by a good amount even over Rogue Warriors.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 21.70

Time-projected: 22.95

Odds Weighted: 21.23

Underdog Win: 25.59

“G” Projected Total: 21.96 kills

Both of these teams have been under machines if you take a look at the trends above. I think we’ll see it again here.

 

WE game times: 34.07 / 30.39 / 38.34 (average / in wins / in losses)

LNG  game times:  31.62 / 34.72 / 30.58 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.84 minutes

Odds Weighted:  31.61 minutes

I’m a little bit surprised the books didn’t float a 33 or even a 34 here. I was really hoping they would but at 32 I’ll sit this one out.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: WE 37.5% / LNG 55%

First Tower: WE 58.33% / LNG 25%

First Dragon: WE 58.33% / LNG 40%

First Herald: WE 54.16% / LNG 45%

LNG haven’t exactly been a proactive team but they have managed to pick up first blood more than it makes sense to. This will probably end up being a wash where they get it in one game and don’t in the other but the projected chances of them getting it twice is enough to take a shot on here. Everything else is priced tightly so I’ll pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -149 (1.49 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -118 (2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ -105 (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 LNG first blood @ +100 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 LNG first blood @ +100 (1 unit)

 

 

 

LGD Gaming -526 (-1.5 maps @ -137) vs

Rogue Warriors +360 (+1.5 maps @ +108, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)

Starting Lineups:

LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley

Trends:

LGD are 4-1 straight up, 1-4 against the map spread as favorites

LGD are 8-5 against the kill spread as favorites

RW are 1-8 straight up, 4-5 against the map spread as underdogs

RW are 12-10 against the kill spread

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 17 out of 22 RW games

Kill Totals have gone OVER in just 8 out of 21 LGD games

 

I honestly can’t stand this LGD team but they’re going to probably make playoffs and have shown that they’re proficient at wielding their wallets and in combination with a jungler like Peanut who can consistently get you ahead early that’s a reasonable formula for success. This team still has a TON of fundamental issues and they aren’t to be trusted to secure a game with a lead or win a game from behind. I’ll be taking my shots against LGD the rest of the season but only with teams that have shown the ability to get ahead in the first 10-15 minutes. LGD look lost from behind or even when they need to navigate a close team fight. Again, I’ve talked about it enough in the past feel free to go back and read old LGD games. They’re the idiot in a bar fight that’s just bigger and stronger than almost everyone there.

Rogue Warriors have shown some signs of life taking down Dominus and taking a game off of Vici game in their past two series but this team is, in many ways, just like LGD in that they can’t always be trusted with a lead and definitely can’t be trusted from a deficit. Poor fundamentals abound in this series.

I could see this one getting a little wild and crazy. Both of these teams are incredibly sloppy overall and just like to scrap as often as possible. Typically in these positions I like the underdog when we get particularly large numbers but I do think LGD have enough of an overall quality edge in this matchup that they’ll get it done. I don’t trust LGD to sweep this but I won’t be betting RW to take a game either.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 28.17

Time-projected: 27.0

Odds-Weighted: 27.45

Underdog Win: 29.13

“G” Projected Total: 27.54 kills

26.5 is a high total but I could definitely see this going over. LGD have had a lot of very high totals this season with an average of 25.125 kills which explains their unders trend. Projections point to an over, LGD’s inability to cleanly close a game out and having to brute force their way through things points to an over as well. There’s almost always an extra 1-2 fights that didn’t need to happen in an LGD win. Notably, when RW are ahead they typically screw up and cause an extra fight or two to happen as well. Love the over here.

 

LGD game times:  32.98 / 30.68 / 35.52 (average / in wins / in losses)

RW game times: 33.34 / 38.02 / 31.96 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.16 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.44 minutes

As mentioned above, both of these teams suck at closinga game out. LGD have shown the ability to snowball so I’d lean to the under but given the lack of trust I have for either of these teams to do their job with a lead I can’t, in good conscience, bet the under.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: LGD 66.66% / RW 59.09%

First Tower:  LGD 61.9% / RW 40.9%

First Dragon: LGD 28.57% / RW 40.91%

First Herald:  LGD 57.14% / RW 50%

It’s tough to justify going against the first blood king Peanut. Numbers suggest a play on that first blood for RW but I’ll be passing.

I’ll be taking a shot at RW first dragon and first herald given the delta and odds.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 1 RW first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RW first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 RW first herald @ +128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RW first herald @ +128 (1 unit)

 

 

Look-Ahead Spots (Wednesday):

There are a few bets myself and the model both think present a lot of value for Wednesday’s LCK slate that I thought I’d clue you all in on ahead of time before lines move. I’ll be writing on these tomorrow but just get ahead of them!

 

Gen.G vs Afreeca

Moneyline: Gen.G -323 (3.23 units)

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +107 (0.5 units)

 

DAMWON vs Team Dynamics

Spread: Dynamics +1.5 maps @ +132 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Dynamics +542 (0.5 units)

Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +795 (0.25 units)

 

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