Monday, August 3rd Recap
FunPlus Phoenix vs Dominus (Net: +9.94 units)
This morning I went into a lot of detail on the Discord (you can check out the free Discord which I’d highly recommend) about why I think the two favorites today aren’t doing anything more than a first round exit unless something drastically changes or one of the better teams severely underperforms. I’ll get to LGD in a bit but this match involved FunPlus. Dominus played about their level maybe little higher in this series. We’ve seen them put up fights against good teams. They certainly don’t roll over and die like other losers but this series isn’t about them, it’s about our defending World Champions.
FPX legitimately lost game two of these series if not for Xubin arrogantly not attacking the Nexus. I’ve watched it every which way trying to justify his reasoning for not doing so and the only thing I can come up with was he was life stealing or didn’t think he could get it done without dying OR assumed they’d win and was being cocky. Regardless, FunPlus were thoroughly outplayed in this game. Another note and something I’ve railed on both LCK and LCS teams for doing frequently, if you’re going to save counterpick for Doinb and he’s shown you very limited ability to be effective in that position of late then I have to question WarHorse’s (coach) evaluation of what’s important right now. To them, it’s probably “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” but to me this is a team that was already limited because of Doinb then further limiting themselves by switching back to GimGoon in a panic and now limiting themselves further in the draft by being predictable. FunPlus can still make it work because they’re a good team with good players but I’m telling you all right now that any illusion of FPX “coming in hot” to playoffs, which they will probably make at this point, is exactly that, an illusion.
I have legitimate concerns for this team in much the same way I had concerns for G2. One of those teams is adjusting to the times, the other is not. A lot needs to change or FunPlus aren’t even going to make it to defend their title this year.
BiliBili vs LGD (Net: +2.97 units)
Here we go again, another thrown lead to LGD. I break WE’s proverbial balls for this all the time but at least they play proactive defense, preventative maintenance if you will. LGD have just gotten lucky time and time again this season. Similar to the above statement, LGD are exactly the same team still. They haven’t changed a bit. If you get a lead on them they don’t know what to do. They’ve had a few comebacks this season but none of them have been of their own doing like this one. LGD are the embodiment of all of the bad things about season ten League of Legends but I digress. This team is going to make playoffs and probably shoot themselves in the foot in two or three games but maybe win one against somebody. They’re good at what you need to be good at right now but they aren’t a good LOL team if that makes sense.
BiliBili… when are you going to learn how to not screw up a lead? It’s almost like you’re… wait a minute that looks familiar… oh wait it’s Diet LGD!
LPL Total: +12.91 units
Daily Total Net: +12.91 units
Excellent betting day but there was some awful League of Legends played today and depressingly it involved two playoff teams. I know I’m a bit of an LCK fanboy but can you honestly tell me that the LPL is definitively the best league in the world after this 2020 season mostly done? Because it sure doesn’t look like it. You’ve got four, maybe five legitimately good teams out of seventeen. The LCK has three or four out of ten. Hell, Europe might have two or might have six. The good teams are good regardless of where. We rag on the LCS all the time but how many LCS teams are just the ones that let the other teams beat themselves? FlyQuest? Liquid? TSM? It’s the same exact thing here. The LPL middle tier is full of teams that have good players but absolutely no cerebral approach to the game whatsoever and it’s infuriating.
You can be so much better LPL! You could absolutely be the best league in the world if you just use that noggin’ just a little bit… anyway… onto this slate because I just sound like an old man yelling at a cloud at this point.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 10 – Day 2
Victory Five -270 (-1.5 maps @ +126) vs
EDward Gaming +203 (+1.5 maps @ -161, -1.5 @ +496)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +127 / under -167)
V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod
EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
V5 are 4-2 straight up, 2-4 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -231)
V5 are 9-7 against the kill spread as favorites
EDG are 1-6 straight up, 4-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +192)
EDG are 10-8 against the kill spread as underdogs
What’s fascinating about this matchup is that EDG have seemingly turned it around but were eliminated from playoff contention today so it’s difficult to tell how motivated they’ll be in this match. I’d assume EDG will be playing this out. Scout and Meiko are both on expiring contracts and while both have spent the majority of their severely underrated careers here it’s not outside the realm of possibility that EDG look to go in a new direction next year. They’ll want to perform and on the off chance that they do plan on retiring together, they’ll want to go out on a positive note.
Scout is playing very well after a rough start to the Summer and Xiaoxiang continues to get more and more comfortable with each match. Jiejie, Hope, and Meiko have maintained an excellent level. As we’ve discussed a number of times this week, a team with nothing to lose can be a terrifying foe but Victory Five are gunning for a first round bye via a top four finish. Currently they’re tied with Suning but hold the game differential advantage so they’ll want to make sure they take care of business here.
I’ve seen a few people say that Victory Five are fading or have been figured out and while I do think the “figured out” bit is somewhat true, they’ve shown the ability to adapt and continue to do so. Victory Five have faced the other four teams in the top five in four of their past five as well as Team WE, a likely playoff team. They’ve won three of those series and took Suning and Invictus to three games. That’s a feat that should not be ignored. Victory Five are the real deal and the economy/objective model agrees rating them as the fourth best team in the LPL ahead of JDG and just below Suning and Invictus who are gaining ground on #1 TOP Esports.
I think Victory Five take care of business in this spot but EDG have been a very strong against the spread in both kills and maps this season so I’ll be weighting more toward the moneyline than the map spread here. EDG actually grade out as a playoff quality team in the model above the likes of LGD, Royal Never Give Up, WE, and even FPX (who are the lowest ranked of those teams).
Underdog Win: 26.13
“G” Projected Total: 23.33 kills
EDG have played a lot of really bloody games this season and that might end up being the case yet again here, especially if they loosen up and play even more aggressively with nothing to lose. I think Victory Five are going to clean this series up and given that as well as the projection I’ll be taking a position on the under despite the potential for this to get a little wild from EDG.
V5 game times: 30.13 / 31.19 / 28.175 (average / in wins / in losses)
EDG game times: 34.54 / 36.32 / 32.96 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.33 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.13 minutes
If this was closer to even money I’d take the under. I do think this will go that way but I’m not laying the heavy juice for a 33:00. Pass.
First Blood: V5 37.84% / EDG 61.76%
First Tower: V5 56.75% / EDG 50%
First Dragon: V5 45.95% / EDG 35.294%
First Herald: V5 40.54% / EDG 55.88%
Value on EDG first blood and first herald.
Moneyline: Victory Five -270 (5.4 units)
Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +126 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 1 EDG first blood @ -110 (1.1 units)
Prop: Map 2 EDG first blood @ -110 (1.1 units)
Prop: Map 1 EDG first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 2 EDG first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)
OMG +258 (+1.5 maps @ -127, -1.5 maps @ +620) vs
Team WE -357 (-1.5 maps @ -101)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Eric, Sora
WE are 6-2 straight up, 3-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg ML odds: -363)
WE are 10-10 against the kill spread as favorites this season (avg spread: -6.13)
Opponents have covered their team total in 11 out of 20 appearances as underdogs against WE
Time Totals have gone OVER in 21 out of 37 WE games this season (12 out of 20 as favorites)
OMG are 1-10 straight up, 7-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg ML odds: +232)
OMG are 15-13 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.3)
OMG have covered their team total in 16 out of 28 appearances as underdogs
Lost in the above trends and in favor of OMG is the fact that they have covered in three of their past five appearances. The three covers were against the similarly rated eStar, Vici Gaming, and top five Suning. Notably, earlier this season OMG also covered against TOP Esports and LGD Gaming two more playoff teams. OMG grade out as a very weak team with the economy/objective model ranking them as the 16th out of 17 teams overall, but they’ve consistently outperformed expectation over the course of the season. The difficult thing to see is that they’ve done that without turning it into match wins.
Despite making the series ending error in game three, Eric played an otherwise outstanding match in his LPL debut. Without the aid of a babysitting support, he was able to effectively 2-vs-1 safely, managed waves well, positioned efficiently in fights to allow himself to output the most damage, and generally showed wisdom and patience far beyond what we normally see from player’s first stage performance. OMG have desperately needed help in the bottom lane in recent years and they may have found a potential candidate for that position in the future. Until then we get to see an extended tryout from Eric as OMG’s season has been over for awhile now. A new player often brings new energy and with that comes optimism and confidence for many teams.
More than most squads, Team WE benefit from the mistakes of their opponents and in the LPL, those are plentiful much more so than in some other leagues. While Team WE are more than capable of engineering advantages on their own, it certainly isn’t a strong attribute for them as a team and it isn’t what they want to be doing in most games either. Other teams have figured this out and have shown that you can go “over-the-top” of WE. For awhile, everyone was trying to go underneath of them but given how poor most of the LPL is at closing a game out with an advantage, this played right into Team WE’s “scale until you screw up” approach.
With all of the pressure on Team WE and their lackluster overall metrics (10th in the economy/objective model), I actually like taking a shot on the underdogs OMG to take at least a game here. Both WE and OMG rank in the bottom four in the league in early game economy rating, both are below league average in overall economy rating, and while WE has the edge in arguably the most important aspect of the which is objectives, I think OMG can formulate a plan to make this difficult for them. These teams are very similar to each other and even though one is clearly better, often we see teams that play the way these two do struggle to punish each others’ weaknesses which results in games that are much closer to a coin flip than it might initially appear. In a similar vein, the weakest and most exploitable player on each team here is the mid laners. We could see a stalemate.
Underdog Win: 26.23
“G” Projected Total: 27.09 kills
I like the over quite a bit here. Both of these teams like to scale up and teamfight and while we sometimes end up with the one fight and it’s over type of games, we more often than not see a back and forth slugfest especially in the LPL. The projection agrees as both squads have generally been pretty high kill per game teams this season.
WE game times: 33.385 / 31.97 / 33.11 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 32.99 / 34.38 / 32.19 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.185 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.52 minutes
I like the over here as well. This is going to be a closer series than it looks and WE aren’t exactly dragsters when it comes to closing speed. I could also see these fights going back-and-forth with no massive advantages gained by either side which results in more posturing, more fighting, and longer games.
First Blood: WE 45.945% / OMG 47.22%
First Tower: WE 56.75% / OMG 27.77%
First Dragon: WE 62.16% / OMG 55.55%
First Herald: WE 54.05% / OMG 41.67%
Most of these are priced well but I do like OMG first dragon plus money.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -127 (1.905 units)
Moneyline: OMG +258 (0.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +612 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ +114 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ +113 (1 unit)