LPL Summer 2020

Playoffs – Third Place Match

 

 

Suning +103 (+1.5 maps @ -217, +2.5 @ -769, -1.5 @ +222) vs

LGD Gaming -132 (-1.5 maps @ +168, -2.5 @ +466, +1.5 @ -303)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -350 / under +253), 4.5 (over +162 / under -222)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -115 / -2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +101 / under -132)

 

Third place matches have a tendency to be a little weird. In this specific case, LGD and Suning will duke it out to decide who will be the higher seed for waterfall-style Regional Qualifier to determine the third and fourth representatives for the LPL at the 2020 World Championships. In this format, which is seeded based on championship points accrued throughout the year, the #1 and #2 seeds faceoff as well as the #3 and #4. The winner of the #1 vs #2 will be seeded directly into the Main Event at the World Championships. The loser will face the winner of the #3 vs #4 matchup with the winner earning the fourth and final spot for the LPL at Worlds which will be as part of the Play-In stage, a mini tournament to determine the final entries into the Main Event.

Currently, the winner of Summer Finals between TOP and JDG will be an automatic #1 seed for the Main Event at Worlds and the loser will still be the championship points leader so they’ll be the #2 seed in the Main Event for the LPL. Suning and LGD are currently tied for third and the winner of this match will be the #1 seed for the Regional Qualifier.

Now that I’ve sufficiently bored you with format discussion you’re probably wondering what all of this means (cue record scratch “you’re probably wondering…”). These two teams are going to face each other again on Friday in another best-of-five regardless of the result here. The only difference is that the winner of this match will get side selection. Why is this relevant? There is a chance one of these teams mails this match in or doesn’t want to reveal any strategies ahead of the more important match on Friday. Obviously side selection has been a huge factor across the world on patch 10.16 with blue side being as potent as it is and especially in the LPL where the higher seed has won all but one match (LGD over Invictus). While blue side has only won 12 out of 22 playoff games in the LPL, it’s leverage on this patch with Caitlyn as the centerpiece is undeniable for most teams and perhaps, more importantly, the ability for a team to pivot if they choose is just as powerful.

Suning won the regular season meeting between these two 2-0 with one closer game and another decisive victory but that was all the way back on July 1st so there’s not a lot we can draw from it. This match is extremely difficult to judge. I’d anticipate that both teams will show up and compete but there is a VERY STRONG chance we see a weird series where teams are tip-toe’ing around as not to reveal anything. In a vacuum without any of these external factors at play I think Suning are a stronger team. They have the early game prowess to match LGD and make fewer mistakes in the mid to late game with overall stronger macro play. The model also thinks Suning are a stronger team which implies a lot of value on Suning at plus money here. Normally I’d make a strong play on their side in this spot but given potential for a bizarre match I’m going to cut my stakes in half on this match because we simply don’t know if one of these teams will find it more equitable to preserve looks and strategies for Friday’s showdown.

I’m going to be playing both sides here to create a lot o “synthetic” lines. With the high likelihood of one team mailing it in or not wanting to show a lot I could easily see this series getting out of hand one way or the other. I’ll be playing both teams -1.5 maps since I doubt we’ll get a real slobberknocker five game series given the motivations of these teams. We don’t see a lot of those anyway and neither of these teams are particularly incentivized to throw the kitchen sink at this series even if they care a lot about side selection. By playing both -1.5 maps we can create a synthetic line of “somebody wins 3-1 or 3-0 @ -105” or “win 0.68 units on an LGD 3-1 or 3-0 OR win 1.22 units on a Suning 3-1 or 3-0. We’re essentially collecting the change (average outcome of ~+0.95 units or 1 unit @ -105 odds) which is better than the price we’re getting on the under 4.5 maps price at -222. If you can find better than -210 on that that’s a simpler market to achieve.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.265

Time-projected: 26.42

Odds-Weighted: 25.0

Underdog Win: 24.58

“G” Projected Total: 25.9 kills

I’d think we see a more aggressive game plan from both teams here as they try to match early aggression but it’s just too difficult to tell how these teams will treat this match. It could go extremely over or extremely under. The overall 26 kills per game average in the LPL playoffs is deceptive. Only 8 out of 22 games in the LPL playoffs have fallen on or between the 23-27 kill range, the rest of have gone significantly higher or lower.

Suning have a tendency to start series off slow averaging just 20.875 kills per game in game ones as opposed to 27.5 in games two and three. In 30 out of Suning’s 42 (71.43%) regular season games they landed outside of the 23-28 combined kill range.

LGD average 24.06 in game ones and 24.0 over the rest of a series. In 31 out of LGD’s 40 (77.5%) regular season games they landed outside of the 23-28 combined kill range.

I’m going to play a synthetic “not 23-28” by playing both sides of this range at plus odds to create a synthetic -260 line on maps 2 and 3 while playing just the alternate unders on map one. The -260 implies roughly 72.22% odds and we’re getting more than that in terms of the likelihood of these two teams to land outside of that range.

 

LGD game times: 33.51 / 33.21 / 33.88 (average / in wins / in losses)

SN game times: 33.11 / 32.32 / 34.27 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.31 minutes

Odds Weighted: 33.445 minutes

I’m not entirely sure how these games will play out so I’ll be avoiding the time total despite playing the kill total.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: LGD 50% / SN 42.86%

First Tower: LGD 60% / SN 52.38%

First Dragon: LGD 37.5% / SN 40.48%

First Herald:  LGD 45% / SN 42.86%

Priced appropriately. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +222 (2 units)

Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +168 (2 units)

(synthetic UNDER 4.5 @ -210)

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +143 (1 unit)

 

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 28.5 @ +134 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 29.5 @ +157 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +119 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ +145 (0.5 units)

(synthetic “not 23 through 28” @ ~-258)

 

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 28.5 @ +134 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 29.5 @ +157 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ +120 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 23.5 @ +146 (0.5 units)

(synthetic “not 23 through 28” @ ~-255)

 

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