Wednesday, July 8th Recap
LNG vs Victory Five (Net: +5.16 units)
What kind of alternate reality are we now living in where Victory Five were the beacon of hope fending the darkness of a sea of red tickets? The redemption arc remains strong.
V5 rolled this series in decisive fashion. We hit everything except our map two dragons under. Thank your V5, thank you.
BiliBili vs Invictus (Net: -1.95 units)
After allowing Meteor to get Olaf, drafting two losing outer lanes, and TheShy starting strong and seemingly just quitting about 10 minutes into the game where he just starting feeding, Invictus managed to somehow claw their way back and stall out game one or should I say BiliBili showed a lack of willingness to shut the door. Games two and three IG mostly stomped.
I still think we’re going to see a weird game like this somewhat often from Invictus but over the past few weeks they really have looked like a new team. Their drafts make sense (most of the time), they’re playing modern picks, they’ve been fundamentally sound, trustworthy with leads, and showing a variety of different strategic approaches to the game with success all-around.
BiliBili need to just stick to the plan that works for themselves. They can be an excellent uptempo team when Meteor gets onto a pick he can take over an early game with. Keep enabling this and you’ll beat teams worse than Invictus.
LPL Total: +3.21 units
DragonX vs KT Rolster (Net: -1.88 units)
Smeb played support and Sohwan played top lane for this since Tusin was ill.
Our LCK nightmare started with one of “those games” that I referenced in yesterday’s post. DRX had a draft that wanted them to 1-3-1 but they kept trying to pilot it like a team fight composition. We DRX do this from time to time. Fair enough. It happens, I thought the combination of that happening AND KT taking a game was still not enough to justify a dog play to me. A game one loss I could live with, it’s not unreasonable to expect. Game two DragonX completely smashed.
Game three….. game three might have been the worst game I’ve seen from this iteration of DragonX. I don’t want to take anything away from
SANDBOX vs Hanwha Life (Net: -6.31 units)
First of all… Hanwha might just be done. They looked like they were in control in game one with an early dragon, solid gold lead, and a solid team composition and Sandbox literally just bullied them off of every objective. If Samwell Tarly was a League of Legends team it was Hanwha in this series.
I don’t even think Sandbox played particularly well they were just confident and maybe YamatoCannon deserves some of the credit for that but really Hanwha just sort of rolled over and died even though they had advantages in game one. Game two they showed some fight early but again…
Lehends had an uncharacteristically bad series, maybe his worst of the 2020 season. For a player as good as he is I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that this was just a blip on the radar but if this bottom lane isn’t throwing up proverbial plates and dragging this team kicking and screaming to a victory, I don’t think they’re going to win any games for awhile unless things change.
I’m upgrading Sandbox to just above dumpster fire alert level. I don’t want to be too optimistic about them since this is a fairly easy part of their schedule but there are at least signs of life and confidence which means they’ll at least be putting up a fight. Hanwha remain in the dumpster fire zone.
LCK Total: -9.99 units
This was my worst single day in the LCK since last year. Historically the LCK has been not only my favorite region but my most profitable as a handicapper so it stings a little but at the very least we have some more clarity coming out of this and we just barely missed on a few that could have made this not a complete catastrophe. We connected on only 3 of 15 wagers. About as bad as it can get.
Onto the next one.
Daily Total Net: -6.78 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 4
Vici Gaming +274 (+1.5 maps @ -120, -1.5 @ +629) vs
FunPlus Phoenix -385 (-1.5 maps @ -106)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -114 / -6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +119 / under -156)
VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Hang
FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
FPX are 5-2 straight up, 2-5 against the map spread as favorites this season
FPX are 8-11 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill totals have gone under in 10 out of 19 FPX games
VG are 1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the map spread as underdogs this season (vs RNG, WE, eStar)
VG are 4-3 against the kill spread as underdogs
Vici have been a challenging team to handicap this season. They do what you expect them to do in a game MOST of the time. They draft the way you’d think they would MOST of the time. They look like a solid team overall MOST of the time. Noticing the theme here? It’s actually very frustrating. Zeka has been a standout performer of late dragging Vici to the finish line against the terrible Rogue Warriors the other day. Pleasant surprise. The in-and-out shuffling of junglers when neither has been the problem might be disruptive to the team but it’s also a Kkoma team staple as he used to do this all the time on T1 for one reason or another.
By measurables, Vici have been surprisingly good given their record which typically indicates some expectation of positive regression. My economy/objective model has them similarly rated to FPX, WE, Suning, LGD, and JDG at a fair margin about league average in most categories however Vici have also faced the easiest schedule in the LPL having already faced BiliBili, Rogue Warriors, and the grand daddy of them all, LNG in their first seven series.
FPX have started to round into form after a rusty start to the beginning of the split. After opening the season against LNG and Bilibili, they’ve had to face a challenging schedule of WE, Invictus, eStar, Victory Five, and RNG. They’ve won four of those final five losing only to Invictus 1-2. Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to run into FPX right now. Unfortunately for Vici, that’s exactly what’s about to happen.
My base model doesn’t account for strength of schedule or composite strength of schedule it’s just a raw look at production. Vici have faced a tremendously easy schedule and still stand at just 8-9. Is this team better than that record? Probably, but I also think that their inconsistencies are very clear. It wouldn’t shock me to see this team take games against the elite teams and I’d expect them to continue improving over the course of the season but FPX have better numbers than they do against a significantly harder schedule and are looking better and better as the season goes on. I think FPX dominate this matchup.
Odds Weighted: 26.06
Underdog Win: 27.08
“G” Projected Total: 25.89 kills
Over over over! This projection takes into account and weighs recent opponents so Vici’s matches against eStar and RW are going to boost this number substantially (averaging 29+ CKPG in last 6 games). If you shift to a season long number it’s still a fairly high projection in the low 25s. Instead of playing the diversified spectrum of alt numbers I’ll just stick with the 23.5.
FPX game times: 31.34 / 30.72 / 32.4 (average / in wins / in losses)
VG game times: 32.62 / 33.08 / 32.3 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.98 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.82 minutes
FPX have gone under 33 in 7 of their past 10 (under 32 actually) but Vici have gone over this total in 7 out of 17 games. Against their strongest opponents (RNG and V5) they went significantly under in 3 out of 4 games. I’ll take the under. The number of outcomes outweighs the odds given.
First Blood: FPX 68.42% / VG 52.94%
First Tower: FPX 47.36% / VG 47.05%
First Dragon: FPX 52.6% / VG 58.82%
First Herald: FPX 52.63% / VG 58.82%
I’ll be passing due to the game script I’m anticipating but the best option here would be the Vici first tower at +122. The issue I have with it is that the trending numbers favor FPX in this measure. First herald might be worth a look at +114 as well.
Moneyline: FunPlus -385 (1.925 units)
Spread: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ -106 (0.53 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -161 (1.61 units)
LGD Gaming +188 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +470) vs
JD Gaming -250 (-1.5 maps @ +133)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -102 / -5.5 @ -128
Time Total: 33:00 (over +115 / under -149)
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
JDG are 6-1 straight up, 4-3 against the map spread as favorites this season
JDG are 11-6 against the kill spread as favorites (5-2 in their past 7 games)
LGD are 1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the map spread as underdogs this season (TOP, Invictus)
I mentioned in the Discord that this will be a good test for the LGD truthers out there. I’m personally not buying this team. They’re a glorified solo queue squad. LGD have severe fundamental deficiencies considering the leads that they’ve had in most games. Poor objective setup, poor threat evaluation, poor team fight execution, and poor target selection are just the beginning. The biggest red flag is their lack of understanding for the “big picture.” LGD frequently show evidence of not knowing how their compositions or their opponents want to operate and how they win/lose. This leads to games that should be really easy for them to close based on the advantages they’ve accrued constantly being thrown away. They almost always give their opponents wide open windows to jump back into a game and the few early deficits they’ve had have resulted in decisive losses.
JDG, similarly to FPX, are beginning to round into expected form and have been rolling of late with wins over Team WE and EDward Gaming. They’ve looked like the version of the team that won Spring.
The numbers say these teams are close but I really don’t think they are. LGD’s stock is being propped up by good statistics, one competitive game against TOP, and a surprise win against V5. On the surface level those things are impressive. The film tells a different story. LGD are probably going to end up being a playoff team given that the middle of the table in the LPL seems inconsistent in punishing poor macro and the leads they accrue for themselves will often be enough. By no means are they a truly good team. LGD are paper tigers.
Underdog Win: 22.22
“G” Projected Total: 26.02 kills
Given the propensity for JDG to give some early leads in the first 10-15 minutes of the game as well as LGD’s propensity to throw them back at objectives, a strength for JDG, I’d expect we get a back-and-forth with a lot of kills so this high total makes sense. Of course, JDG could just roll over LGD early as well and LGD have looked like cute, cuddly kittens when that happens. I’d lean to the over but I’ll be passing on the total.
JDG game times: 31.06 / 32.0 / 29.31 (average / in wins / in losses)
LGD game times: 31.89 / 29.7 / 34.39 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.47 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.99 minutes
Pass. Again, LGD game scripts.
First Blood: JDG 35.29% / LGD 73.33%
First Tower: JDG 41.17% / LGD 60%
First Dragon: JDG 52.94% / LGD 26.66%
First Herald: JDG 41.17% / LGD 60%
The LGD first blood makes a lot of sense given that you’re only laying -130 for it but Kanavi has started the action early scoring first blood participation in their past three games. I’ll pass there. Just the number alone isn’t good enough on the tower but with the herald multiplier giving an added edge toward first towers I think a light play on the LGD first tower is in order.
Moneyline: JDG -250 (2.5 units)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +133 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 LGD first tower @ -123 (0.615 units)
Prop: Map 2 LGD first tower @ -123 (0.615 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 4 – Day 2
T1 -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -278) vs
SeolHaeOne Prince +812 (+1.5 maps @ +207, -1.5 @ +1002)
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 5.5
Time Total: OTB
There’s a very strong chance we continue to see the T1 substitutes in this spot although the staff may see that DragonX lost and want to take the opportunity to get back into the race for first or second again. I’d bet on the subs here and even with Ellim and possible even Roach playing I’d expect T1 to roll. I’ve gone over it a bunch of times already but SeolHaeOne just lack the horses to compete in this league and that’s saying something considering Season 10 is likely the friendliest to that problem of any season in years due to the metagame and the game being much less about laning anymore. What APK had going last season was that they were smart and had a good read on the metagame. Almost all of the teams do now so that advantage has vanished leaving them in the gladiator’s arena with nothing but a rusty dagger and a loin cloth. T1 are the lions.
Yesterday was brutal for heavy favorite spreads but I’ll be laying the money on T1 here. This should be cake for them. Don’t over think this one.
Odds Weighted: 22.49
Underdog Win: 21.86
“G” Projected Total: 22.52 kills
Given that T1 aren’t afraid of playing with their food a little these days and that SeolHaeOne tend to throw themselves at their opponents when nothing else is working, I think we could see some shenanigans and an over. Of course this could all go to hell with a split push strategy which T1 have employed often this season but that’s baked in.
T1 game times: 32.76 / 31.24 / 35.03 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP/APK game times: 29.69 / 32.55 / 28.91 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.23 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.47 minutes
No markets. Would love unders.
First Blood: T1 66.66% / SP 57.14%
First Tower: T1 46.66% / SP 13.33%
First Dragon: T1 73.33% / SP 53.33%
First Herald: T1 40% / SP 28.57%
Was hoping we could attack a few of these but with T1 being such huge favorites the juice is flowing. If you’re going to take a stab at any of these SP first dragon at +164 is a good one. I think they’re just going to get rolled.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -278 (2.78 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Afreeca Freecs +268 (+1.5 maps @ -123, -1.5 @ +615) vs
DAMWON Gaming -370 (-1.5 maps @ -103)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -102 / -6.5 @ -128
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
DAMWON have looked excellent so far this split with their only two losses coming against Gen.G in a 1-2 series loss. They’ve swept their other five matches, four of them in convincing fashion but the T1 series was not what it looks like. I’d argue that T1 should have won both of those games and uncharacteristically punted. Still, DAMWON sit atop the LCK. Obviously the model loves them as they’ve completely smashed everyone besides Gen.G and T1 which severely inflates their numbers.
Afreeca have impressed so far and seem to be thriving in a metagame that’s catered perfectly to them. I don’t think they’re quite as good as their record either but they have had a few nice wins and a took a game off of T1 early in week two.
What’s weird about this series is that I feel that both of these teams are quite good but also being overrated. I have a tendency to call out things that are overrated but still good and people often object but I think comparing this series to “Dark Side of the Moon” seems appropriate. It’s excellent, it’s appealing, and a great album… it’s also severely overrated. So how do I handicap this?
My economy/objective model has Afreeca more or less as the league average team. DAMWON are obviously on top now with similar numbers to TOP in the LPL (relative to the league in terms of order of magnitude). Both have had a similar schedule. I do think it’s possible to jump out on this DAMWON team and while Afreeca have been ending games slowly, they’ve also been able to engineer some advantages through mid lane priority. I’m just not sure they’ll be able to do it against ShowMaker and Canyon in their current form.
I think DWG probably win this series and the most likely outcome is probably a 2-0. The eye test says this should be no question but I think there’s a lot of noise here so I’m just going to be passing a side in this series. I’d lean Afreeca +1.5 if anything.
Odds Weighted: 23.51
Underdog Win: 19.71
“G” Projected Total: 23.37 kills
I have a feeling this series is going to be really scrappy, just based on the way these teams want to play. Kiin and Nuguri are going to have at it in the top lane for bragging rights and the mid/jungle duos are the primary focus for both squads despite Mystic being one of the most impressive janitors on the planet. No offense to him of course, he’s an incredible player but his job on this team is similar to that of Jiumeng on Team WE; Bat cleanup. I like the over quite a bit in this series.
DWG game times: 28.93 / 28.92 / 28.96 (average / in wins / in losses)
AF game times: 34.04 / 34.11 / 33.9 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.48 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.45 minutes
First Blood: DWG 38.46% / AF 57.14%
First Tower: DWG 80% / AF 26.66%
First Dragon: DWG 20% / AF 26.66%
First Herald: DWG 69.23% / AF 50%
DWG have been exceptional at taking first tower and their focus on first herald aligns with that. Unfortunately the odds reflect that.
I like Afreeca in some of these spots at plus money given DWG’s lack of focus on early dragons.
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)
Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first dragon @ +110 (1 unit)