Wednesday, July 29th Recap

 

JD Gaming vs eStar (Net: +2.75 units)

It was looking rather competitive for awhile back and forth with small gold leads in the first 25+ minutes of game one before eStar failed to hold serve with CJJ’s split push fiora. Game two went similarly except JDG dismantled them faster.

eStar put up a decent fight here and we covered out kill spreads and hit the props. They probably should have won game one but their execution was lacking. Close but no cigar. JDG look solid.

 

FunPlus vs LGD  (Net: +1.5 units)

This series…. jeez where do I start. First of all, LGD secure ocean soul … that alone should be game over against the limited healing reduction and team composition of FPX. You quite literally have to screw up multiple times in quick succession … and sure enough they did. I’ve been saying all season that this team is just dumb as nails sometimes, that came to fruition here. Luckily in season ten you can still be a playoff team though!! (yea…. ). So this series gets even wonkier when FPX do THE SAME THING in game two except this was at least a nice little creative split push play by Xiye, something smart from LGD to find a way to win, not usually their wheelhouse…. LPL macro play ladies and gentlemen!

Game three FPX stomped but I think this series is legitimately a downgrade for both of these teams. I still think LGD was the right side despite their completely moronic decision making throughout the series with the exception of that backdoor play. Frankly, FPX weren’t much better and perhaps most disturbingly they were extremely indecisive. If I had to pick one thing that FPX aren’t, for all their good and bad, it’s indecisive. I’m concerned for this team.

LPL Total: +4.25 units

 

Daily Total Net: +4.25 units

 

The props giveth and the props taketh away. Still feel like I had a pretty strong read on the day and were close to a much bigger one if LGD could do their job with a damn ocean soul… oh LPL, never change… except please do, I want to see good League of Legends.

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 9 – Day 4

 

 

 

TOP Esports -294 (-1.5 maps @ +105) vs

Suning Gaming +218 (+1.5 maps @ -133, -1.5 @ +451)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Starting Lineups:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

Trends:

TOP are 10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -1000)

TOP are 13-15 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -7.58)

Opponents have covered their team total in 15 out of 27 games as underdogs vs TOP (avg total: 9.08)

Suning are 4-3 straight up, 5-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +134)

Suning are 9-9 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.64)

Suning have covered their team total in 10 out of 18 appearances as underdogs (avg total: 11.21)

Suning have won their past three appearances as underdogs (vs LGD, RNG, V5), covered past four

 

Speaking strictly from an economic perspective, Suning are surprisingly the second best team in the league trailing only TOP and just edging out both JDG and Invictus. They grade as the best team in the LPL at 15 and 20 in my economy model factoring both season long and trending performance. TOP have the advantage in post-20 minute gold differential per minute and the non-baron objectives as well as GPR which makes sense given that they tend to close strong. Suning are doing all of this without the crutch of first blood and while their 52% first tower rate while good, isn’t necessarily breaking games open for them. If you consider the fact that Suning have played 7 more games than TOP and that they also have 7 more losses (61.8% win rate vs TOP’s 77.8%) these economy metrics are actually quite impressive.

So the question here is are Suning good enough to actually take down TOP here? The numbers certainly suggest a play on the underdogs here but the film  and a deeper look at those numbers tells a different story. The majority of Suning’s numbers have come from a few extremely lopsided blowouts. If we look at a larger version of the “trending” sample that dates back to the beginning of week five and includes their past six matches against LGD, eStar, BiliBili, RNG, V5, and OMG, their GD @ 10 is +234 , +170 @ 15, +1044 @ 20. Much less impressive than the model’s trending measure which includes a +6000 gold lead against V5 but also back to back -3k deficits in the same series.

Suning have had some surprising performances this season primarily because they were underrated most of the season but they might be just a tad overrated at this point. Their record against “great” teams is 0-2 vs JDG, 0-2 vs IG (early in season when they weren’t as sharp), 2-1 win vs V5. If you look at the middle of the pack they’re more competitive but still fairly even. Suning aren’t fraudulent, they’re a good team, they’re just not this good.

Unless you think TOP completely mail this in they should roll here. Objectives are what matters and they’ve got better players at every single position. When they’ve faced teams the caliber of TOP it hasn’t gone particularly well for them.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.22

Time-projected: 27.57

Odds Weighted: 27.775

Underdog Win: 28.94

“G” Projected Total: 27.52 kills

Suning games have had some spike kill totals, primarily because they’ve been a few really REALLY weird games over the course of the season and TOP have the highest number in the league for CKPG. I doubt that will be the case here unless TOP really play with their food. The projection suggests an over play but I’ll be passing.

 

TOP game times: 32.1 / 33.52 / 33.37 (average / in wins / in losses)

SN  game times:  32.81 / 32.27 / 33.68 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.45 minutes

Odds Weighted:  33.37 minutes

For similar reasons to the above I’ll be passing on the time total although I’d lean over.

Other Markets:

First Blood: TOP 55.55% / SN 38.24%

First Tower: TOP 55.55% / SN 52.94%

First Dragon: TOP 59.26% / SN 41.18%

First Herald:  TOP 62.96% / SN 44.12%

The best value on the board here is actually TOP -139 to take first herald and I’ll be taking that as they’ve made it a priority.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: TOP Esports -294 (2.94 units)

Spread: TOP Esports -1.5 maps @ +105 (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first herald @ -139 (1.39 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first herald @ -139 (1.39 units)

 

 

Team WE +134 (+1.5 maps @ -233, -1.5 @ +359) vs

Victory Five -172 (-1.5 maps @ +178)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +118 / under -154)

Starting Lineups:

V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod

WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

Trends:

Victory Five are 3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -242)

Victory Five are 8-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.1)

WE are 3-2 straight up, 5-0 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +90)

WE are 9-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +3.9)

 

Considering their strength of opponents in their most recent three series it’s perfectly understandable that V5 have dropped two in a row for the first time since last split. TOP and Invictus look like two of the top three teams in the league and a cut above the rest and Suning have essentially clinched playoffs barring a wild ending. They’ve gone to three games in each.

Team WE have had a much easier go of it recently. BLG have looked better of late but they defeated them 2-1, LGD 0-2, LNG 2-0, Dominus 2-1. Frankly, Team WE haven’t looked very good during this stretch either. They’re averaging a -227 gold differential at 15, and an even worse -576 at 20 against a soft schedule. They’ve led at the 20 minute mark in just four of their past eleven.

The catch with handicapping this series is that both of these teams appear to have been figured out to some extent. It should come as no surprise that Team WE have been a bit easier to “solve” even though it took the league an embarrassingly long time to do so. TOP and Invictus laid out good game plans to make things difficult for the catalyst of Victory Five, Weiwei, by pushing him onto slower farmers or poor individual matchups.

So with the league catching up to both of these teams how do we approach this? Well, I think Victory Five have been a more versatile team. I also think the plan to beat them still involves excellent execution and WE have had far from that. Neither of these teams are extremely linear, they’ve shown some different tools and strategies that they have at their disposal, I just think Victory Five are better suited to current LOL and have had overall better execution, especially of late. The fact that WE has struggled against a weak schedule isn’t doing them any favors either. I love Victory Five in this spot.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.02

Time-projected: 26.43

Odds-Weighted: 25.46

Underdog Win:  28.4

“G” Projected Total: 25.64 kills

Neither of these teams will shy away from a fight. I like the over even if I like the under in game time.

 

V5 game times: 29.82 / 30.87 / 27.92 (average / in wins / in losses)

WE game times: 33.46 / 31.56 / 34.0 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.64 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.34 minutes

This total is high. Way high if you ask me, especially if you think V5 are deserving favorites. I’ll take the under for sure, I think Victory Five are going to run over at least one, if not two of these games.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: V5 35.48% / WE 43.75%

First Tower: V5 54.83% / WE 59.37%

First Dragon: V5 48.39% / WE 59.375%

First Herald:  V5 35.48% / WE 56.25%

Pretty tight pricing here but I do like the under 4.5 dragons especially in games where I like the under and particularly in V5 games which average only 4.32 dragons per game.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Victory Five -172 (3.44 units)

Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +105 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -154 (1.54 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -152 (1.52 units)

Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +127 (1 unit)

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 1

 

 

 

Afreeca Freeca -556 (-1.5 maps @ -143) vs

Hanwha Life Esports +377 (+1.5 maps @ +112, -1.5 @ +837)

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -122 / +7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -143)

Trends:

Afreeca are 6-0 straight up, 5-1 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -320)

Afreeca are 12-1 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.83)

Underdogs have covered their team total in 2 out of 13 appearances against AF (avg total: 8.5)

Hanwha Life are 0-9 straight up, 2-7 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +432)

Hanwha Life are 5-15 against the kill spread as underdogs (3-4 in their past three) (avg spread: +6.5)

Hanwha have covered their team total in 9 out of 20 appearances as underdogs (avg total: 7.22)

 

Afreeca have been like the high school bully that shoves all the nerds in a locker but then gets their ass whooped when they try to start something with someone their own size somewhere a year later. They’ve completely destroyed all of the bad teams in the league as you can see in the above trends and even posted a sub 17 minute win against SeolHaeOne the other day.

Notes | Scaredy Bird

Hanwha managed to steal a game win against T1 and were competitive in game two. For whatever reason Hanwha always find a way to make things difficult for T1. It’s inexplicably funny. T1 have looked really off but that’s a topic for another time… Hanwha look better than SeolHaeOne and that’s about it right now. They seem to be slightly improved with Mireu in the mid lane but this team is going to continue to struggle against all but the worst teams.

This is a bit of a test of fortitude. Afreeca have been dominating the bad teams this season but they always seem to collapse in the second half of the split and have done so in the past three. Will that happen again? If it does then when? It’s anybody’s guess. If you feel that’s the case here and that Hanwha can only improve or you want to put some stock into that competitive T1 series, then Hanwha are the play here. Afreeca are a net negative rating (although the LCK only has four positive teams right now). Even with their lopsided wins recently, they’ve had a few “fraudulent” ones as well. They grade lower than Dynamics and KT Rolster but significantly ahead of Sandbox, Hanwha, and SP.

I’ll be making a light play on Afreeca here although the numbers suggest that this line is too large. This team is uniquely well positioned in the current metagame and while I’m not sure if they’ll be a playoff team or not, I’m betting against that second half regression this time around. I actually don’t hate taking Hanwha kill spreads here with such a low total but I think Afreeca will get this done and I’m just going to stick to that.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 21.42

Time-projected: 23.52

Odds Weighted: 22.06

Underdog Win: 24.19

“G” Projected Total: 22.33 kills

I’m really not sure how this one is going to play out but 20.5 is a really low total and I’d expect Hanwha to continue progressing now that they’ve essentially got nothing to lose. I could also see Afreeca drift a bit. I’ll follow the projection and take the over here.

 

AF game times: 31.56 / 32.64 / 30.29 (average / in wins / in losses)

HLE  game times:  31.93 / 35.04 / 31.12 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.745 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.03 minutes

Pass, too much juice, not enough delta to justify it.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: AF 50% / HLE 41.38%

First Tower: AF 37.5% / HLE 31.03%

First Dragon: AF 33.33% / HLE 44.83%

First Herald:  AF 48.94% / HLE 40.35%

I was expecting a few ridiculous lines but the only really whacky one is Hanwha first tower at +146 which is a little obscene given Afreeca’s low conversion rate in both towers and mediocre herald rate. I’ll be taking the Hanwha first drag as well.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first tower @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first tower @ +146 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first dragon @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first dragon @ -102 (1.02 units)

 

 

 

 

DragonX -102 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +260) vs

DAMWON Gaming -125 (-1.5 maps @ +239, +1.5 @ -357)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -114 / -0.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +136 / under -179)

Trends:

DRX are 2-0 straight up as underdogs this season (vs T1, DWG)

DWG are 8-1 straight up, 8-1 against the map spread as favorites (only loss vs DRX)

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 19 out of 24 DWG games this season (avg total: 32.33)

 

While it’s a little bit weird that the first place team that defeated this very team in their last meeting is the underdog it’s a little bit more understandable if you look at DWG’s measurables which are just obscene so far this season. Their +377 gold differential per minute is best in the world (TOP are +220 for comparison) and is more than triple that of MAD Lions over just under twice as many games. Now, admittedly, many of their gaudy numbers have come from absolutely obliterating the bottom of the table in Korea with multiple five figure gold leads at the 20 minute mark this season (four to be exact). As a matter of fact, DWG haven’t trailed by more than 1498 gold in the first 20 minutes THE ENTIRE SEASON. If you count their deficits at 10, 15, and 20 minutes over the course of the season (72 measures) they’ve trailed only 11 times and most are by less than 500g. The SK Telecom Season 5 World Championship roster that went 35-6 in games during Summer that year had a +317. What DAMWON are doing is absurd, the question is how sustainable is it and how do they measure up against better competition.

DAMWON’s four game losses this season have come at the hands of the other two elite teams Gen.G and DragonX (I’m temporarily leaving T1 out although I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get it together). They also trailed in both games against T1 and likely should have lost both if T1 didn’t blow both games with their compositions. What I’m trying to say is that, similar to Victory Five and TOP Esports a few weeks ago, these numbers are impressive, some of the most absurd I’ve ever seen, but they’re inflated. DAMWON are an exceedingly good team and I don’t want to take anything away from them… but so are DragonX.

The question is  does that justify a play on the underdogs here? DragonX did hand DAMWON one of their losses after all. I think not actually and I’m one of the biggest DragonX truthers there is, their economy numbers are impressive in their own right, given that they don’t rely nearly as much on kills to do so but I’m not getting in the way of this DAMWON team right now. I think this line is fairly accurate. To me, it’s pretty difficult to justify DragonX other than they won the first match and that DWG’s numbers are more fraudulent than DragonX’s but I also have a hard time betting against Gen.G and DragonX. I’ll be passing the side here as I think this number is about accurate.

I’m not going to have a lot of action on this game and it’s tough to judge exactly what direction this series might go. Both of these teams are extremely good and should represent Korea at the World Championship this year. I think they, along with Gen.G are all live (as well as the terrifying dark horse version of T1 we see sometimes) to win the Summer season.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.41

Time-projected: 26.45

Odds Weighted: 25.9

Underdog Win: 23.92

“G” Projected Total: 25.92 kills

Typically the games between the elite teams in the LCK tend to be much lower scoring which makes me want to lean to the under but given the way these two teams like to play an over, like the model suggests, might be the better play. I’ll be passing but leaning under. I think this will be a tight and competitive match.

 

DWG game times: 28.52 / 28.05 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)

DRX  game times:  32.07 / 31.73 / 33.07 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 30.3 minutes

Odds Weighted:  30.91 minutes

34 is a really large number even with the ridiculous juice but I’ll be passing. While both of these teams snowball extremely well I could see one or two of these going the distance in a contested match.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: DWG 50% / DRX 51.61%

First Tower: DWG 95.83% / DRX 38.71%

First Dragon: DWG 33.33% / DRX 45.16%

First Herald:  DWG 79.17% / DRX 32.26%

Can we just talk about how obscene a 95%+ first tower rate through 24 games is? I’ve never seen anything like that… It’s got to end at some point right?  At -147 there’s actually a TON of value there as well as the first herald at -139. Hard to say no to that number though so I’ll take it. The rest of these are priced accurately.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 DWG first tower @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 2 DWG first tower @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 1 DWG first herald @ -139 (1.39 units)

Prop: Map 2 DWG first herald @ -139 (1.39 units)

 

 

 

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