Wednesday, July 15th Recap
eStar vs OMG (Net: +3.42 units)
It figures that eStar play BY FAR their worst series of the season and finally pick up a win. You can’t make that stuff up folks! In all seriousness though, Rat was pretty impressive in his debut despite this series devolving into a complete circus. He showed an excellent carry Senna game and looked great on the traditional looks as well. I was actually more impressed with this showing than I thought I’d be. Typically ADC is the most replaceable position because it relies the most on your teammates but with his team and the games collapsing around him he managed to stay cool, calm, and collected and make it work. Quite a debut from the youngster!
Both of these teams have been underrated over the course of the season but I think they both played some of the worst LOL they’ve played all Summer which makes me think that they’re both on dumpster fire alert for the rest of the season.
JDG vs Vici (Net: -0.03 units)
This was an outstanding series. Vici made a statement, completely dominating game one and looked well on their way to a win in game two before JDG slowly pieced together a comeback by picking up dragons and making a pick around baron that would incite Vici to make one of their only really poor decisions of the series going one by one to disrupt a baron that wasn’t going t be disrupted. Something to understand, When teams go to “disrupt” the baron, they almost always go overboard trying to be a hero. When a teammate gets caught, it’s almost always correct to cut your losses and get something on the rest of the map. Game three, JDG snowballed into a victory.
JDG made a great decision to pull the trigger on the baron in game two and utilized Twisted Fate to make the pick. Vici screwed up chasing the mistake. There was some masterful teamfighting in game two by both tteams, especially Vici who had a much more difficult composition to maneuver with demanding kiting and discipline on target selection. They did just that.
Excellent series by both teams, a few mistakes here and there but for the most part well-played all-around. As I mentioned yesterday, the model is extremely high on Vici ranking them sky high at 3rd in the LPL in rating. Do I believe they’re that good? No but I do believe they’re a legitimately good team that the public is still down on. This series easily could have been a 2-0 and the public would be singing a different tune. Props to JDG for bringing it back against tough competition. They’re still tremendous.
I’m going to be talking about the Leyan/jungle situation on the podcast tonight but just a reminder like I’ve been saying for weeks now, this is a strategy not a substitution based on performance. Kkoma has a history of success with this and while it sucks for fantasy purposes you shouldn’t downgrade Leyan as a player or Vici as a team for it just because it hasn’t worked out in a few situations. Don’t be results oriented.
LPL Total: +3.39 units
Afreeca vs Gen.G (Net: +1.535 units)
People still sleepin’ on Gen.G? Don’t worry they’ll be underrated again next slate.
Dynamics vs DAMWON (Net: +0.72 units)
Dynamics played a very competitive game one standing up individually to DAMWON on multiple occasions but DWG just barely managed to get the bigger edge in a few mid game fights that swung this game in their favor. Game two was a familiar sight, a DWG snowball into a massive victory.
I still posit that DWG aren’t as good as their ridiculous numbers but that’s not any disrespect to DWG who look excellent so far this season. They get a little ahead of themselves sometimes and that’s going to cost them games now and again but they’re just so gifted. Canyon put on a a show on Lee Sin in this series check it out.
LCK Total: +2.255 units
Daily Total Net: +5.645 units
It’s important to identify when you had the right side for the right reasons, sometimes more than winning itself. I’d bet this slate the exact same way tomorrow, no hesitation besides maybe eStar/OMG after seeing that fiesta today. The model is showing value spots and giving a strong, unbiased foundation to build my handicap on. Onward we march!
LPL Summer 2020
Week 7 – Day 4
LNG Esports +387 (+1.5 maps @ +117, -1.5 @ +838) vs
Invictus Gaming -588 (-1.5 maps @ -149)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -103 / under -127)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -114 / -7.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +120 / under -156)
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan
LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Iwandy
Invictus are 6-2 straight up, 2-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -460)
Invictus are 10-11 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.625)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 13 out of 21 games where IG were favored (avg total: 25.5)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 21 games where IG were favored (avg total: 32)
Invictus have covered their team total 9 out of 21 games as favorites (avg total: 15.125)
Underdogs have covered their team total 13 out of 21 games against IG (avg total: 10.375)
LNG are 2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +361)
LNG are 6-10 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.21)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 16 games where LNG were underdogs (avg total: 24.5)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 16 games where LNG were underdogs (avg total: 32.29)
LNG have covered their team total 6 out of 16 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.93)
Opponents have covered their team total 6 out of 16 games against LNG (avg total: 14.93)
LNG had their best individual game of the year in game one against Team WE showing an excellent game plan, proactive early game, and a willingness to brawl that I have only seen a few times this season out of this team. They immediately turned back into themselves in the next two games despite keeping game two fairly even on gold for awhile. LNG rate as the worst team in the LPL in my model and most people would agree with that or at least not put up much of a fight against it. Tthere’s a good reason for that; they just don’t put up any resistance most of the time. One could look at that game one as a means to be optimistic that LNG will outperform their rating from here on out but at the end of the day what does that really mean? If a 2 out of 10 shows some improvement and plays at a 3 or 4 out of 10 level the rest of the season they’ll be a value but is anybody sincerely picking this team to do much?
Invictus played a weird series against eStar on Saturday where each team snowballed one of the first two games and looked well on their way to stomping game three before a miracle Icebourn Gauntlet baron steal by Wink created a choatic game that IG did eventually win.
Invictus have been trending downward in the model after being severely underrated as recently as last week, they’re now being overrated in this spot but LNG are just so bad that it’s tough not to take Invictus to sweep this even though that’s been a notoriously bad bet over the years. IG have let some weaker teams get games off of them but I also think that they’re going to steadily improve as they get more and more comfortable with their new identity. I’m going against the model on this one. LNG are terrible and Invictus have shown the ability to creatively build comebacks from deficits if things go badly.
Odds Weighted: 22.99
Underdog Win: 25.3
“G” Projected Total: 23.923 kills
I’d lean to the under but given the pricing I’ll pass. I could see IG playing with their food a bit.
IG game times: 31.5 / 29.69 / 34.29 (average / in wins / in losses)
LNG game times: 31.82 / 34.66 / 30.82 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.66 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.335 minutes
While Invictus haven’t been strangers to taking their time on a split push I just see this game playing out in a snowball. I really don’t think LNG are going to put up much of a fight. Take the unders.
First Blood: IG 32.14% / LNG 47.83%
First Tower: IG 50% / LNG 21.73%
First Dragon: IG 64.29% / LNG 39.13%
First Herald: IG 32.14% / LNG 47.83%
Invictus have been one of the worst herald control teams in the league but that was primarily due to their complete ignorance of the objective until recent weeks. They’re at least acknowledging it as important now and even though they’re still a sub 50% first herald rate, their overall numbers are steadily improving. That said, there’s a lot of value on LNG first herald here. First herald and first tower tend to go hand in hand so with that being the case I’m going to split my exposure to this market across both despite a massive delta in favor of IG.
First blood for LNG looks tempting but they’ve only picked up first blood in 2 of their last 10 games and IG have been trending the opposite direction picking up 6 of their last 10 as they’ve changed their approach.
There have only been more than four dragons spawned in 4 of Invictus’ past 10 games. I’ll take the under 4.5 at +143 as I’d expect a snowball victory here.
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -149 (2.235 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -156 (1 unit)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -161 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +143 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +144 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 LNG first tower @ +151 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 LNG first tower @ +149 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 1 LNG first herald @ +134 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 LNG first herald @ +134 (0.5 unit)
Royal Never Give Up -115 (-1.5 maps @ +265, +1.5 @ -333) vs
Suning Gaming -114 (-1.5 maps @ +242, +1.5 @ -333)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -106 / -3.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -118 / under -111)
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming
RNG are 5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the map spread (2-0’d by underdog twice vs V5, LNG)
RNG is 11 out of 22 against the kill spread this season
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 14 out of 22 RNG games
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 22 RNG games
RNG have covered their team total 11 out of 22 games
Opponents have covered their team total 7 out of 22 games vs RNG
Suning are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread (swept LGD as underdogs)
Suning are 14-11 against the kill spread
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 11 out of 25 Suning games
Time Totals have gone OVER in 13 out of 25 Suning games
Suning have covered their team total in 11 out of 25 games
Opponents have covered their kill total in 9 out of 25 games vs Suning
Some of these markets are going to look a little bit weird because Suning opened as favorites earlier in the week and while the major markets have adjusted, the props haven’t.
Usually when this happens there is a ton of value to be had with the movement but let’s look at these teams first.
First, the model likes Suning better as a team by a small but non-trivial amount. They’ve been a better team in almost every measurable except herald control where Suning have been abysmal but RNG are still under the league average. RNG have a very slight edge in gold differential at 15 but Suning own every single other category by a strong margin. Vision is advantage to RNG by design as they’re typically more all-in on snowballing and those games inflate vision scores more than the other way around.
Looking at records for both, Suning have some “weak” game losses to BiliBili, eStar, and Dominus but all three of those have been in their past four series and BiliBili and Dominus have showed better form of late. Notable victories for Suning include 2-0 vs LGD, 2-1 vs Team WE. Their three losses are to EDG, Invictus, and JDG. RNG have been more hot and cold. “Weak” game losses include eStar, 0-2 vs LNG (that series…). Notable victories include EDG and JDG. They also beat Vici but it was in week one when they were really struggling. Overall I’d say these teams are about even here.
Ultimately this is just a contrast of styles. Suning have taken a more Team WE approach of making their opponents outplay them. Solid fundamentals, usually draft for scaling (although not always), and play proactive defense. Royal Never Give Up have won most of their games through uptempo play and when they haven’t snowballed a lead they’re typically lost. It’s, for all intents and purposes, a classic clash of philosophy although to say these teams are linear would be an injustice to both.
This season I’ve strongly preferred snowballing teams. I think it’s the optimal way to play with any reasonable amount of execution. All of the strongest tools are given to the team in the lead in season ten and you want to be playing from a position of leverage. Scaling isn’t as good as it used to be. You have to find a balance. Both can work but it’s a different type of scaling than it used to be and a lot of teams haven’t picked up on that while teams like Suning and Team WE have.
I’m going to be light on Suning here. They’ve been a more consistent team overall. RNG have been very two-faced this season looking incredible in one game and clueless the very next regardless of the opponent. Suning are at least steady. Think of them like the FlyQuest of the LPL… except maybe don’t because I want them to win tomorrow!
NOTE: You could play the UNDER 2.5 which is something I usually like to do in spots like this but since I’m a tad more bullish on Suning I’ll be siding with them here.
Underdog Win: 22.24
“G” Projected Total: 23.63 kills
Right on the money. Pass.
SN game times: 33.56 / 32.9 / 34.54 (average / in wins / in losses)
RNG game times: 32.78 / 32.73 / 32.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.17 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.255 minutes
The tricky thing with this series is that it’s higher variance in terms of totals and time markets. If RNG win they’ll likely be fast games. If Suning win, the opposite. I’ll be passing in this spot. The number projects similarly to my total anyway.
First Blood: SN 40% / RNG 63.64%
First Tower: SN 52% / RNG 40.9%
First Dragon: SN 48% / RNG 40.91%
First Herald: SN 36% / RNG 40.91%
Value on RNG first blood even with the juice. Short value on RNG first herald.
Moneyline: Suning -114 (0.57 units)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +242 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -141 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -141 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 RNG first herald @ -109 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 RNG first herald @ -109 (1 unit)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 5 – Day 2
“The Telecom War”
KT Rolster +297 (+1.5 maps @ -118, -1.5 @ +653) vs
T1 -417 (-1.5 maps @ -109)
Kill Total: 19.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -122 / -6.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -175 / under +133)
T1 are 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -639.5)
T1 are 10-10 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.5)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 10 out of 20 T1 games (avg total: 21.0)
Time Totals have gone OVER in 11 out of 20 T1 games (avg total: 32.5)
T1 have covered their team total in 9 out of 20 games (avg total: 12.625)
Opponents have covered their team total 13 out of 20 games against T1 (avg total: 7)
KT Rolster 1-3 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +256)
KT Rolster are 5-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.25)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 10 out of 18 KT games
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 5 out of 10 games where KT were underdogs (avg total: 21.75)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 18 KT games
KT have covered their team total in 6 out of 10 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.5)
Favorites have covered their team total 4 out of 10 games against KT (avg total: 13.25)
Ahh yes, The Telecom War! A rivalry as old as Korean esports itself that started all the way back in 2004 with the Starcraft: Brood War rivalry between SKT’s Boxer vs KT’s YellOw. While their lifetime record was close, Boxer seemed to always take the matches that mattered. This was the birth of a rivalry that has raged across mutliple titles for the past 16 years. The League of Legends version has had its fair share of classic moments, the most iconic of which is “The Outplay” with Faker making one of the most incredible plays in the history of the game against Ryu in a game five of the 2013 Summer Finals.
Sorry, I can’t help but reminisce. The point I’m trying to make is that this rivalry is real and while it has been T1 dominated over the past few years, there’s always at least a little extra juice from both sides when it comes time for this one each season.
So where do we stand heading into the first installment for this Summer season?
The model likes T1 a bit even at this sky high price but both of these teams have been a little off and on this season in different ways. T1 has won a few games they shouldn’t have (see Gen.G series) but also lost a few that they had leads in. KT Rolster finally appear to be settled on the lineup but we still don’t know whether or not Tusin will be returning to the lineup. He had a bout with gastroenteritis last week that briefly hospitalized him but he was discharged on July 10th. He’s a huge part of this handicap unfortunately.
If Tusin plays I actually like KT Rolster quite a bit. While it isn’t always true, this series is often very competitive and I think KT will continue to improve as the season goes on while T1 have been struggling a bit of late. T1 are deserving favorites but I just think this number is a little large for a rivalry game. I’ll be waiting until closer to game time to handicap this. If Tusin starts, I’m firing on KT, if not, T1.
Odds Weighted: 23.61
Underdog Win: 22.65
“G” Projected Total: 22.12 kills
I’ll be playing the over here but diversifying exposure between the 19.5 and next number which is 21.5 at plus odds. Splitting it 2/3-1/3rd of stake.
T1 game times: 33.21 / 31.31 / 36.06 (average / in wins / in losses)
KT game times: 32.66 / 33.86 / 31.89 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.93 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.40 minutes
It’s weird that they floated a juiced over 31 as the only number here. It’s just barely out of range but I’d definitely look over before under. Pass.
First Blood: T1 65% / KT 66.67%
First Tower: T1 50% / KT 44.44%
First Dragon: T1 70% / KT 61.11%
First Herald: T140% / KT 50%
Regardless of lineup I like a lot of the KT props given the short deltas here. I be splitting my tower/herald exposure half and half but going full on the first dragon.
*Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -118 (1.18 units) *IF Tusin plays
*Moneyline: KT Rolster +297 (0.5 units) *IF Tusin plays
*Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +662 (0.25 units) *IF Tusin plays
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 19.5 @ -125 (0.85 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ +109 (0.4 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 19.5 @ -122 (0.82 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ +102 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first herald @ +114 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first herald @ +130 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first tower @ +125 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first tower @ +112 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first dragon @ +125 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 KT first dragon @ +141 (1 unit)
SeolHaeOne Prince +238 (+1.5 maps @ -130, -1.5 @ +566) vs
SANDBOX Gaming -323 (-1.5 maps @ +102)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -123 / -6.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Sandbox have only been favored once (vs HLE)
Overall, SB are 3-5 straight up, 4-4 against the map spread this season (avg odds +299)
SB are 8-8 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.07)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 18 SB games this season (avg total: 21.13)
Time Totals have gone in 9 out of 18 SB games this season (avg total: 32.75)
SB have covered their team total in 10 out of 18 games this season (avg total: 8.13)
Opponents have covered their team total in 7 out of 18 games this season (avg total: 12.63)
SP are 1-8 straight up, 1-8 against the map spread as underdogs this season (avg odds: +314.5)
Their only win was 2-1 vs Hanwha Life. They don’t have a game win otherwise.
SP are 3-15 against the kill spread this season (avg spread: +5.63)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 9 out of 18 SP games this season (avg total: 22.5)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 18 SP games this season (avg total: 32.75)
SP have covered their team total in 8 out of 18 games (avg total: 8.5)
Opponents have covered their team total in 11 out of 18 games (avg total: 13.75)
I tried to tell people. And I wasn’t sure about the Mickey move either. Here we are. So what is SeolHaeOne’s problem? They used to be a smart team in a meta that was about making the fewest mistakes, especially in Korea. They might not have had the man power but they had solid drafts and a good read on the metagame. Everyone has caught up to what is good, what isn’t, how you’re supposed to play, how to beat the power picks, and SeolHaeOne no longer have that advantage. Before they were getting by with sub-par talent. They can’t hide behind their metagame armor anymore. They’ve become significantly messier and, for lack of better terms, haven’t been playing as smart as they were last season which is adding fuel to the dumpster fire. I wouldn’t rule out some new found aggression in an attempt to get anything going but something needs to change and quick if SeolHaeOne are to even show any signs of life this season.
Sandbox made it three series in a row with wins over Dynamics, Hanwha Life, and KT Rolster. They’ve looked much improved with Yamato at the helm but their opponents have also done them A LOT of favors along the way. Of their six wins in their past three series I’d give them the primary credit on just two of them. The other four were pretty colossal errors in the draft or in-game by their opponents who often had a lead. I’m not saying Sandbox are frauds because I do think we’ll see continued improvement from this team, just that we shouldn’t crown them “hot” or even good just because they’re on a three match win streak where they got a ton of help. I’m skeptical.
So where do we draw the line. How bad are SeolHaeOne? How good or bad are Sandbox? As with most things, it’s somewhere in the middle. I think Sandbox are clearly a better team here but I’m still not entirely buying them. The thing is, SeolHaeOne have just been so poor that it’s tough to justify a play on them in their current state. Tough doesn’t mean impossible. I think the play here is to just hold your nose and take SeolHaeOne to take a game. A team of Sandbox’s caliber on film doesn’t deserve to be favored by this much over anybody. I also think we might see some cheese, maybe the stinky Limburger, from SeolHaeOne and possibly more substitutions in this series.
Odds Weighted: 20.48
Underdog Win: 21.95
“G” Projected Total: 21.55 kills
I’d lean toward the under in this game but I could see some shenanigans by SeolHaeOne producing some weird games like we saw in the Hanwha Life vs SP series.
SB game times: 32.2 / 34.65 / 30.65 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP game times: 30.45 / 32.56 / 30.02 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.33 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.13 minutes
Typically I like overs when weaker teams face off but there’s really no telling what SeolHaeOne might have prepared for this and if Sandbox are taking it seriously they might play this overly conservative as well. They’ll need every win they can get.
First Blood: SB 33.33% / SP 55.56%
First Tower: SB 55.56% / SP 16.67%
First Dragon: SB 44.44% / SP 61.11%
First Herald: SB 50% / SP 27.78%
The biggest value on the board here is SeolHaeOne first dragon which I’ll be taking at +104.
Spread: SeolHaeOne +1.5 maps @ -130 (1.3 units)
Moneyline: SeolHaeOne +238 (0.5 units)
Spread: SeolHaeOne -1.5 maps @ +566 (0.1 units)
Prop: Map 1 SeolHaeOne first dragon @ +114 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 SeolHaeOne first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)