Wednesday, August 5th Recap
Apologies for the lack of post yesterday there was a pretty bad tropical storm that knocked out power in my entire area for almost 20 hours meaning I couldn’t get to any of my resources other than my picks sheet/model via phone. Anyway, we’re back in action today!
LNG vs LGD (Net: -1.69 units)
Ended up missing on a few of these props but glad I stayed away from this one. As I mentioned yesterday, LGD aren’t to be trusted as large favorites. Their inability to find any way back into games is a consistent problem. While that’s been an issue for a lot of teams this season, by design mind you, they’re exceptionally poor in this regard.
TOP Esports vs eStar (Net: -0.18 units)
TOP are still showing signs of concern to me. They insist on heavily indexing into scaling in their drafts which leaves them liable to get completely run over by good early game teams. In game two we saw TOP make the adjustment with two (three if Knight outplayed his lane) lanes with priority and a Nidalee jungle to abuse it and, what do you know, they stomped. Game three they went back to the scaling but at least this time they brought Gangplank who, in my opinion is the linchpin to any scaling strategy right now providing a spike at the most important time (2-3 items) and the ability to stave off dives in any lane with his ultimate.
I’m concerned but ultimately think TOP are still the best team in the LPL they just need to show my they understand these concepts. We see flashes but it’s inconsistent. It’s possible they’re sandbagging for playoffs but to me it legitimately looks like a slow adjustment to the patch combined with the long season wearing on them. I’d expect they’ll be better in playoffs with more time on the patch.
LPL Total: -1.87 units
Daily Total Net: -1.87 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 10 – Day 4
Rogue Warriors +253 (+1.5 maps @ -120, -1.5 @ +557) vs
Victory Five -345 (-1.5 maps @ -106)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -132 / -7.5 @ +101
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -101 / under -131)
V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, y4, ppgod
RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
V5 are 4-3 straight up, 2-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -236)
V5 are 9-9 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.07)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 18 games where V5 were favored (avg total: 24.8)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 14 out of 18 games where V5 were favored (avg total: 32.7)
RW are 3-8 straight up, 6-5 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +268)
RW have won their past three underdog appearances straight up, with two 2-0’s
RW have covered the map spread in six of their past seven underdog appearances
RW are 16-10 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.5)
They’ve gone 10-2 against the kill spread in their past five matches
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 17 out of 26 games where RW were underdogs
Victory Five had their first off series of the entire season earlier this week against EDG who played quite well despite a potential lack of motivation from being eliminated from playoff contention the day before. So how much of a concern should this be for Victory Five? That day I went against what my model suggested which was a play on EDG who it grades as the #7 team in the LPL in a tier with most of the other playoff teams that aren’t the elite level. EDG had a bit of a rough middle of the split that eliminated them from playoff contention but they showed the ability to beat top teams all season long, including last split so we really shouldn’t be surprised. Don’t disrespect the opponent when looking squarely at one team in the matchup unless that opponent hasn’t given you reason to expect otherwise.
We did discuss how Victory Five have been, to some extent, figured out but that they have a decent insurance policy in that the patches remain good for them and champion pools aren’t a particularly large problem. They’re certainly not the same quality of team when they aren’t in their element but it’s difficult to stop them from doing what they do in the draft and the fact that they’re functional+ in situations where they don’t get what they want makes me a believer in V5 overall. I still think this team is good they just had an off series and EDG played extremely well on the day which combined to create a blowout loss.
Rogue Warriors have had a long layoff since they were eliminated from playoffs last week. Prior to that they’d been on a bit of a tear, at least relative to their performance the rest of the season. They’d won three in a row as underdogs and four in a row against the map spread as underdogs heading into the series against LNG. Haro and Wuming have been playing excellently since joining forces consistently getting this team into scraps early and often leads to accompany it and as we know season ten is all about getting leads.
Rogue Warriors are remarkably similar to LGD; consistently finding leads for themselves but very clumsy with them. They often overstep their limits because they have poor setup, situational awareness, and overall macro meaning that they need large leads to mask these deficiencies. This is another matchup where two early game centric teams will square off but one of them is much better in the other facets of the game and, quite frankly, better at the early portion of it.
I usually like the underdogs in this spot but with a long layoff for RW and a surprising loss for V5 I’d expect the playoff bound team to take care of business here even with Y4 getting the start. RW grade out as the 16th ranked team in my model and while V5 dropped to 6th, that’s the lowest they’ve been this season. Expect them to get back on track.
Underdog Win: 27.63
“G” Projected Total: 24.26 kills
I was hoping we’d get a 25.5 here since RW games tend to be on the bloodier side but at 24.5 I’ll pass and just lean under.
V5 game times: 30.09 / 31.19 / 28.34 (average / in wins / in losses)
RW game times: 33.1 / 36.12 / 31.53 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.6 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.56 minutes
Assuming this is a 32:00 I’d look to the under but it’ll depend on the price the book floats. Anything close to even money I’ll bite but if it’s a juiced under I’ll pass.
(UPDATE: 32:00 juiced under, I’ll pass)
First Blood: V5 41.03% / RW 53.13%
First Tower: V5 56.41% / RW 40.62%
First Dragon: V5 46.15% / RW 53.13%
First Herald: V5 41.03% / RW 56.25%
Most of these are currently off the board as well but the values will likely be RW first blood and herald, and V5 first tower depending on the price.
Moneyline: V5 -345 (1.725 units)
Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ -106 (1.06 units)
(keep an eye out for updates once markets are posted I might have some prop and total plays)
RNG -270 (-1.5 maps @ +123) vs
BiliBili +203 (+1.5 maps @ -159, -1.5 @ +458)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -126 / +5.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +116 / under -155)
RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming
BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
RNG are 5-4 straight up, 4-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -265)
RNG are 9-12 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.5)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 21 games where RNG were favored (avg total: 24.38)
Underdogs have covered their team total in 7 out of 21 games against RNG (avg total: 11.05)
BLG are 3-10 straight up, 8-5 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +258)
BLG are 14-18 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.73)
Since going back to Meteor, BLG are 5-2 against the map spread
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 19 out of 32 games where BLG were underdogs (avg total: 24.73)
Favorites have covered their team total in 15 out of 32 appearances against BLG (avg total: 14.65)
Both of these teams want to play the same way but on the stat sheet only one of them looks that way. BiliBili are one of the most misunderstood teams and arguably the biggest “paper liars” in the world. They are an uptempo team that wants to win through a jungle carry snowball with Meteor at the helm, their problem is that they are so terrible at closing that most games end up looking like longer, lower kill games leading to the misconception that they’re a “slower, more controlled” style. Most BLG games look like an early lead that gets stalled out because they struggle to close unless they have a massive lead (noticing a trend here in the LPL?). So they’ll jump out to a lead, the enemy team can’t really fight them (resulting in low kills) so they just dictate the pace for awhile, eventually screw it up and end up losing by stalling out.
RNG have been one of the most two-faced teams on the planet this season. On a game-to-game basis they can look like the best team in the world one game and completely clueless the next and it almost doesn’t matter what style or composition they’re playing. They have a lot of seemingly random “no show” games which makes them very tricky to handicap. RNG grade out as a top five early game economy rating team which makes a lot of sense given how they tend to win games.
To me this is similar to the last match. Not only to we have playoff implications at stake with RNG in must-win mode to keep any chance of making playoffs alive, but they also just do what BiliBili want to do significantly better than they do. RNG are excellent at jumping out to a lead on you and they’ve got at least functional ability to play out mid and late game scenarios. The model has these two a similar distance apart to the last match between V5 and RW. BiliBili have been an excellent against the map spread team since Meteor returned to the starting lineup but most of those wins came against teams that surrendered the early game to them allowing them to get a substantial lead (WE, Suning, IG). They do have wins against other early game centric teams (V5, LGD, eStar) but given the circumstances and line I actually like a play on RNG no matter how sick to my stomach it might make me.
Underdog Win: 24.29
“G” Projected Total: 25.28 kills
I was hoping we’d get a decent sized total for an under bet here and I’d still lean that way but at 24.5 priced under I’ll just pass.
RNG game times: 32.32 / 31.96 / 32.76 (average / in wins / in losses)
BLG game times: 32.88 / 32.49 / 33.14 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.6 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.57 minutes
It’s juiced but I still like the under here. When these teams win it tends to be via a big snowball.
First Blood: RNG 68.57% / BLG 48.65%
First Tower: RNG 48.57% / BLG 54.05%
First Dragon: RNG 51.43% / BLG 43.24%
First Herald: RNG 42.86% / BLG 54.05%
If you want to mess with BLG here I think first dragon or herald might be the spot to do it but it depends on the odds you can get. Anything +120 or better is in play to me given that both teams want to do similar things. I do like RNG first blood even laying money to do so.
Moneyline: RNG -270 (2.7 units)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +123 (0.5 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -155 (1.55 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -155 (1.55 units)
Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)
Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 1
LCK Trends through seven weeks:
Favorites are 55-11 straight up (83.33%), 41-25 against the map spread (62.12%)
Of the 11 underdog victories, 5 have been 2-0 sweeps
Favorites have covered the kill spread in 98 out of 153 games (64.05%)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 80 out of 153 games (52.29%)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 91 out of 153 games (59.48%)
Favorites have covered their team total in 92 out of 153 games (60.13%)
Underdogs have covered their team total in 76 out of 153 games (49.67%)
Moneyline Odds: -570 / +299
Map Spread: -13.82 / -68.77
Kill Spread: -5.64 / +5.73
Kill Total: 21.76
Time Total: 32.73 minutes
Team Totals: 13.47 / 8.17
DAMWON Gaming -182 (-1.5 maps @ +167) vs
Gen.G +141 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +336)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -117 / +4.5 @ -113
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +188 / under -260)
DWG are 2-2 in matches against elite LCK teams (DRX, Gen.G, T1)
DWG are 10-1 straight up, 10-1 against the map spread (same game, loss to DRX)
DWG are 20-3 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.14)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 15 out of 23 games where DWG were favored (avg total: 22.86)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 21 out of 23 games where DWG were favored (avg total: 32.45)
DWG have covered their team total in 18 out of 23 games as favorites (avg total: 14.32)
Gen.G are 1-3 straight up, 3-1 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: -104.5)
Gen.G are 4-6 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +0.5)
Gen.G have only been underdogs against DRX and T1
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 5 out of 10 games where Gen.G were underdogs
Time Totals have gone OVER in 5 out of 10 games where Gen.G were underdogs
Set your alarms early because this should be an absolute slobberknocker!
I think in order to properly break this matchup down we need to first look at how DAMWON measure up against elite competition. This team is clearly good but a lot of their absurd numbers (which are by far the best in the world by the way…) have come against the non-elite LCK teams. Let’s break it down.
DAMWON vs Gen.G + DragonX:
Record: 1-2 (4-4 games)
Avg Gold Differential @ 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: +446.5 / +1299.63 / +2662
Gold Differential per minute:
CS differential per minute: +0.26
Gold Percent Rating (full): +1.529%
First Blood / Tower / Drag: 37.5% / 87.5% / 50% (first dragon 4 of last 4)
These are still formidable statistics even against the strongest competition but I’ll mention that they were down/even in both games against T1 and if you wanted to include that these numbers grow quite a bit smaller. Let’s look at Gen.G
Gen.G vs DAMWON + DragonX:
Record: 1-2 (4-5 games)
Avg Gold Differential @ 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: -636 / -744.6 / -942.8
Gold Differential per minute: -70.55
CS differential per minute: +11.35
Gold Percent Rating (full): -0.953%
First Blood / Tower / Drag: 44.4% / 55.5% / 77.8%
Fairly big gap when you look at it.
So here’s the thing, DAMWON look like the best team on the planet in their current form and the stats support a play on them here but I do think that Gen.G are totally live to win this series. DWG are very good but mortal against the good teams while they’ve been arguably the best team I’ve ever seen against the rest of the league and that’s no exaggeration. Their numbers are some of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever seen in my decade of following this game. Enjoy what you’re witnessing.
I’ll be on DAMWON here with the model but it wouldn’t surprise me to see this go the other way. Regardless of the result this should be a great matchup.
Underdog Win: 26.24
“G” Projected Total: 26.10 kills
Typically when we see the good LCK teams clash the games are lower scoring and tend to be fairly lopsided stomps on a game-to-game basis considering how good they are at closing but these two teams are so ridiculously bloody this season that I can’t help but think we might see a very LPL looking series here. I like the over.
DWG game times: 28.13 / 27.68 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
GEG game times: 31.81 / 30.74 / 34.76 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 29.97 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.05 minutes
Obviously I like the under given the above statement but I could see these going the distance if this is a truly close slugfest of a series. Still, this juice is nuts I’ll pass.
First Blood: DWG 53.57% / GEG 63.33%
First Tower: DWG 92.86% / GEG 76.67%
First Dragon: DWG 42.86% / GEG 66.67%
First Herald: DWG 78.57% / GEG 90%
Take a second and look at these… ridiculous right? Unfortunately for us they’re priced appropriately but just marvel at those firsts… just insane.
Moneyline: DAMWON -182 (1.82 units)
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +167 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)
T1 -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -385) vs
SeolHaeOne +811 (+1.5 maps @ +279, -1.5 @ +1221)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -111 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -122 / +10.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 5.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +122 / under -162)
T1 are 9-4 straight up, 6-7 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -630)
T1 are 16-15 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.81)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 17 out of 31 games where T1 were favored (avg total: 21.04)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 17 out of 31 games where T1 were favored (avg total: 32.46)
SP are 1-12 straight up, 3-9 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +324)
SP are 6-24 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.04)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 16 out of 30 games where SP were underdogs (avg total: 22.19)
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 19 out of 30 games where SP were underdogs (avg total: 32.77)
SP have covered their team total in 14 out of 30 appearances as underdogs (avg total: 8.19)
There’s not really a lot to say on this one and it’s unfortunate that this series has to follow the beauty we’ll see before it. T1 should stomp here and somewhat quashed any concerns that may have arisen from their recent performance with a complete blowout of Sandbox in their last series. Clozer continues to impress and Canna is getting back into form. SeolHaeOne are another level of bad. So bad, in fact, that I don’t even want to take double digit kill spreads in the LCK with a 21.5 total because I think this legitimately has a chance to be a 12-1 kind of game. That or T1 will run up the score and let Clozer style a bit.
I’m staying completely away from a side in this game with the prices as they are.
Underdog Win: 22.18
“G” Projected Total: 24.20 kills
The question here is whether you think T1 do this on their own. I don’t think they will although if Clozer plays maybe he’ll want to show off a bit (and probably get benched if he does). I really do think this could be like 14-0 or 12-1 or something like that so I’m just passing.
T1 game times: 32.5 / 31.12 / 35.0 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP game times: 30.73 / 33.46 / 30.26 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.614 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.05 minutes
Similar to above. T1 should take care of business it’s just a matter of how and whether or not they limit test.
First Blood: T1 54.84% / SP 51.85%
First Tower: T1 48.39% / SP 18.52%
First Dragon: T1 64.52% / SP 51.85%
First Herald: T1 38.7% / SP 22.22%
Prices are outrageous. I’ll take a stab at SeolHaeOne first blood and that’s it. Value is too good to pass up on a somewhat limited correlated stat.
Prop: Map 1 SeolHaeOne first blood @ +118 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 SeolHaeOne first blood @ +116 (1 unit)
I’m going to play T1 -1.5 with V5 and RW in different iterations.
Parlay (2): T1 -1.5 maps + V5 ML @ -160 (1.6 units)
Parlay (2): T1 -1.5 maps + RNG ML @ -138 (1.38 units)
Parlay (3): T1 -1.5 maps + RNG ML + V5 ML @ +123 (0.5 units)
Parlay (3): T1 -1.5 maps + V5 -1.5 maps + RNG ML @ +235 (0.5 units)
Parlay (3): T1 -1.5 maps + V5 -1.5 maps + RNG -1.5 maps @ +445 (0.25 units)
Look Ahead (LCK weekend):
I like KT Rolster vs Hanwha quite a bit and you can get the sweep at a reasonable -137 right now so I’m going to jump on that before it moves. I’m also going to get a parlay in now on DAMWON+DragonX sweeps on Saturday.
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -137 vs Hanwha (1.37 units)
Parlay (2): DragonX -1.5 maps vs Sandbox + DAMWON -1.5 maps vs SeolHaeOne @ -120 (2.4 units)