LCK Summer 2020

Week 10 – Day 1

 

T1 +150 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +387) vs

DAMWON Gaming -192 (-1.5 maps @ +165)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -108 / -4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +136 / under -179)

 

Both of these teams have been on absolute tears over the past … well, DAMWON has been on a tear the entire season, but T1 have won six in a row including 12 of their past 13 games with Clozer in the lineup for the past 10. Admittedly, they’ve faced the bottom six teams in this span so while it’s not mind blowingly impressive, they’ve still looked completely dominant in every single game with Clozer after looking somewhat shaky against the middle of the table earlier in the Summer season.

DAMWON enter 16-1 in their past 17 with their only game loss to Gen.G.

With a win, T1 would keep pace with Gen.G in a battle for the #3 seed. They can’t fall below 4th and cannot reach the top two DragonX and DAMWON. DAMWON need the win to keep pace with DragonX for the #1 seed. If they were to win out, their game differential advantage would give them the #1 seed assuming DragonX also win their final match. While I think these narratives are often overblown, especially with T1 having a history of not being particularly concerned with playoff placement, I do think both teams will be up for this series.

The previous series between these two was bizarre with T1 leading in both games and good scaling in both only to throw badly in the mid game.

We talked a lot about this match on The Gold Card Podcast this week. Both teams should be up for this one and it will be Clozer’s first REAL test against an elite LCK mid laner in ShowMaker. We’re going to get a taste of what Clozer is made of after this weekend because T1 get DragonX and Chovy in their final match. While I don’t doubt his talent and the ability for him to elevate and perform well here, I do think that the hype should be tempered just a bit seeing as he’s been facing bottom half mid laners the entire duration of his starting time. There’s also just a chance we see Faker return as a sort of “warmup” to get back into shape so he’s not playing playoffs “cold.” At this point, and given T1’s history, I think we’ll probably see Clozer finish the season. I think they want to see how he performs against the best of the best.

The numbers actually suggest that there is some value on DAMWON in this spot especially now that it’s dropped from -222/+162 to -192/+150.  I happen to agree. They’ve been a better team by almost every measure and even if you compare T1’s season long stats against DWG’s stats against the other top teams (T1, DragonX, and Gen.G) they still outclass T1 in literally every single category my model measures. T1 have looked significantly improved of late and while I do expect this to be a competitive series regardless of who plays in the mid lane, I think DWG is the side here.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 23.01

Time-projected: 24.32

Odds-Weighted: 25.03

Underdog Win: 24.45

“G” Projected Total: 24.12 kills

DAMWON have been absolute OVER machines this season but both of these teams have shown a propensity to play split push compositions when they’re available and play through side lanes. I also tend to lean under in games where the elite teams are facing off against one another. For that reason I’ll pass.

 

DWG game times: 27.91 / 27.42 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)

T1 game times: 32.23 / 31.06 / 35.01 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 30.07 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.12 minutes

I could see this being a slugfest like last time or a complete snowball factory like we’ve seen from both of these teams of late. I’m going to lay the juice on the under here. T1 have gone over 33 minutes in just 2 of their past 8 and DWG have gone over 33:00 just four times all season. DWG haven’t gone over 33:00 in their past 16 games.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: DWG 54.285% / T1 59.46%

First Tower: DWG 88.57% / T1 56.76%

First Dragon: DWG 40% / T1 64.86%

First Herald:  DWG 78.57% / T1 46.575%

There’s some value on T1 first blood and DWG first herald, The rest of these are fairly priced. Half stake each.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: DAMWON -192 (3.84 units)

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +165 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -179 (1.79 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -172 (1.72 units)

Prop: Map 1 T1 first blood @ -103 (0.515 units)

Prop: Map 2 T1 first blood @ -103 (0.515 units)

Prop: Map 1 DWG first herald @ -139 (0.695 units)

Prop: Map 2 DWG first herald @ -109 (0.545 units)

 

 

Afreeca -172 (-1.5 maps @ +177) vs

KT Rolster +135 (+1.5 maps @ -233, -1.5 @ +353)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over +101 / under -132)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -114 / +4.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

 

Afreeca sit at 9-7 with this match and one more against Gen.G to close out the season. KT Rolster sit at 7-9 with this match and one more against DAMWON. Afreeca have the game differential advantage at +2 vs KT’s -4. It’s going to take a small miracle for KT Rolster to make playoffs at this point but it is possible. If they find a way to win this series AND beat DAMWON, all they’d need is Gen.G to 2-0 Afreeca. Easy right? oooof…

If you look at the trends Afreeca have dropped just three games to teams below them in the standings all season (2x to Dynamics, 1x in their last match vs Sandbox) and have been utterlly dominant only dropping a handful against the kill spread against the same foes. That would suggest a play on Afreeca. If you look at the composite numbers KT Rolster actually grade out as a very slightly better team overall in the economy/objective model. This is, in part, due to their extremely lopsided games. Afreeca haven’t had very many “average” games despite their average production. They’ve been completely smashed or completely smashing in almost every single game while KT Rolster have been a lot more steady in large part due to their need to develop chemistry with the moving roster over the course of the season.

This is a bit of a gut check call but I actually like KT Rolster quite a bit in this spot. I actually think spots like this galvanize a lot of veterans and KT Rolster are a grizzled and experienced team, all 8 of them. I also think Afreeca, while well-suited to this metagame, are a fairly overrated team and while they’ve done their duty as the gatekeepers to playoffs, they’re a far cry from the elite four in the LCK. Add to the fact that they’ve lost games to their past two bottom half foes Sandbox and Dynamics sandwiched between routes at the hands of T1 and DragonX.

My main reservation is that this metagame is excellent for carry top laners and Kiin is one of the best there is… but Sohwan and Smeb aren’t any strangers to these either. To me if you give the top lane edge to Kiin overall, the bottom lane feels like a wash to me with both being excellent, and it comes down to mid jungle synergy. Fly and Spirit have been great this season but they’re not exactly world beaters and I think any of the iterations of KT’s mid+jungle are capable of beating them in a given game. Slight or no edge there. These two teams are fairly even just take the underdog. KT are going to throw the kitchen sink at this one and it should be a hard fought series with their Summer season on the line.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.2

Time-projected: 25.2

Odds-Weighted: 25.88

Underdog Win: 27.85

“G” Projected Total: 25.43 kills

Typically teams tighten up in spots like this but both of these teams are so experienced that I don’t think that will be nearly as much of an issue as it normally would be. I love the over but I am a little afraid of a potential split push since both teams enjoy playing carry top laners. With that in mind, however, double carry top games can turn really bloody in a hurry so that’s an added bonus. Take the over.

 

AF game times:   32.38 / 32.92 / 31.77 (average / in wins / in losses)

KT game times:  32.75 / 33.39 / 32.23 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.56 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.58 minutes

This is another “gut” handicap but I feel like we’ll see a slugfest in this one. Both of these teams tend to win on the slower side and given the magnitude of this series I could see them being diligent and taking their time on things. I could see multiple team fights ending in 3-4 kills and retreats. Half stake on the gut check OVER. I think two or three of these will go over.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: AF 55.55% / KT 52.63%

First Tower: AF 41.67% / KT 55.26%

First Dragon: AF 33.33% / KT 68.42%

First Herald:  AF 41.67% / KT 60.53%

Value on KT to take first tower and first herald. First dragon is close but I typically avoid playing both the dragon AND herald unless we’re getting plus odds on both so I’ll stick to these two.

This also feels like an OVER dragons series. It’s a lot of juice but I don’t think that’s a bad market to look at either. The numbers end up coming out close with Afreeca averaging 4.55 dragons spawned per game and KT 4.84 per game. In tandem with longer game times this makes a lot of sense. At this number you’d need two out of two or two out of three to hit to make it worthwhile and even then it’s probably not worth the payout.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -233 (3.495 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +135 (1 unit)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +357 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -103 (0.515 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ -103 (0.515 units)

Prop: Map 1 KT first tower @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 KT first tower @ -127 (1.27 units)

Prop: Map 1 KT first herald @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 2 KT first herald @ -125 (1.25 units)

 

 

Parlay (2): KT +1.5 maps + DWG ML @ +117 (1 unit)

 

 

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Playoffs – Winners’ Bracket Round Two

 

This will be coming out later Wednesday night. Check the Discord for updates or just refresh.

 

Cloud 9 -526 (-1.5 maps @ -204, -2.5 @ +183, +1.5 @ -1429) vs

FlyQuest +361 (+1.5 maps @ +156, +2.5 @ -238, -1.5 @ +713)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 (over -208 / under +161), 4.5 (over +236 / under -323)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -110 / +6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +111 / under -145)

 

There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical about Cloud 9. Some think they’ve been “figured out” or “lack depth,” others that “the league has caught up to them,” and still others that just look at a five loss second half and call it a ROTty day. Compounding on these factors is that FlyQuest have returned to their late Spring form. FlyQuest are a public underdog and while that doesn’t really play in traditional betting markets like it might in a traditional sport, it’s definitely worth mentioning.

You can’t say they don’t deserve the respect. FlyQuest are a good team. The question is are they a great team and furthermore, are Cloud 9 even a great team?

I’ve had a lot of issues with Cloud 9’s second half. The amount of teleport flanks they’ve seemed surprised about is almost two hands worth and this hasn’t been against just the good or just the bad teams either. They’ve also seemd a little checked out at time but that in no way excuses some of their poor decision making. Unlike a lot of people, I’m not against their “experimental” drafts because I don’t think they’re that experiemental at all (Sona/Lux is real…). To me, Cloud 9 look like a team that caught a little bit of everything all at once. Variance, trying new looks, fatigue, the league improving, maybe a little soft preparation, being figured out a bit, and maybe a little bit of sandbagging although not so much in the sense of trying to hide something but really trying hard to demand bans on something (like Nidalee). It’s not anyone thing it’s a combination of all of these things occuring at different times and sometimes all at once.

“So Vince, if that’s the case then isn’t the stable and solid FlyQuest the play here?”

That’s the question isn’t it. To me it isn’t and here’s why.

No, I don’t think Cloud 9 have just been coasting to the finish or anything like that. These are very real and tangible issues. However, what I do believe is that extra time to prepare and re-focus, an experienced and successful coach in Reapered, and overall strength of each individual player combined with side selection and more avenues to victory will be enough for Cloud 9 to take this series down. FlyQuest are a very good and fundamentally sound team by LCS standards and while I won’t call them “linear” per se, they are somewhat predictable and I think this can be exposed. Teams like FlyQuest, Liquid, and to a lesser extent TSM (much lesser), choose to play in a way that minimizes mistakes and in a league like the LCS that’s enough to find success on a consistent basis. Eventually this will cause issues internationally but that’s for a later time. The way to beat this is to go underneath of it or over top of it.

Cloud 9 have the tools to attack these types of teams and that’s why they were successful for so long this year while others weren’t. To me, this season has been less about versatility and more about honing the optimal way to play (around the soul). Cloud 9 have been the best at this all year long and a few losses and weird looks aren’t going to make me change my mind on it. They are the best at the best way to play. LGD are doing similar things in the LPL right now and that roster isn’t particularly talented compared to most LPL squads. Cloud 9 have that AND individual talent AND some degree of versatility as well as a boatload of draft equity.

To sum this all up, Cloud 9 have more avenues to victory in this series. I think Solo, who has been excellent at his job this season is just too linear and could suffer from a carry top metagame against the versatile and talented Licorice. I’m also not buying that WildTurtle can continue this steady and consistent play, a stark departure from the norm for his entire career. If PowerOfEvil and Santorin can’t hard carry this series, which they are capable fo doing, then I just don’t see how you can justify FlyQuest. Sure the value is there but I just think Cloud 9 have too many ways to to beat you and pound-for-pound better players in at least three positions.

All of that said, this price is a bit too steep for me to pay. I’m confident in Cloud 9 taking this down but I respect FlyQuest enough that I won’t have action on the side in this series. Unfortunately most of the prop markets are pretty fairly priced as well. If you are looking to have a stake in this one I think the over 3.5 maps is reasonable but not a slam dunk, the under time total is reasonable, and Cloud 9 kill spreads (and alt spreads). I’ll be passing this unfortunately the price is too rich for Cloud 9.

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 

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