Saturday, September 5th Recap
LCK Finals: DragonX vs DAMWON Gaming (Net: +4.79 units)
Can’t say I’m too surprised at this result but I still think this line was a little rich even if it did turn out this way. DAMWON are clearly ridiculously good and I can’t wait to see them at the World Championships where I’ll likely have them as my personal favorite to take it down. I think this is the best team in the world.
LEC Losers’ Finals: G2 Esports vs Rogue (Net: +1.295 units)
As I mentioned a few times in yesterday’s post I had a feeling this would be a competitive series and Rogue really brought it. It’s really cool seeing a team develop and make adaptations and they’re showing a lot of the same mental fortitude that I’ve praised MAD Lions for this post season. Rogue are still growing and other than a really poor game five performance from Finn they took a great G2 team to five games and everyone contributed. The bottom lane really impressed me in this series.
LCS Losers’ Finals: TSM vs Liquid (Net: +3.68 units)
Another slobberknocker. I haven’t gone over the film yet but writing this just after the series finished I have a few thoughts.
We saw some different looks from Liquid in the last series but it turns out none of them really meant anything. It’s not that I was specifically looking to see those picks like the Zyra again but I did want to see a more aggressive approach to drafting in a best-of-five against another solid team. Liquid are very set in their ways and while they’re good at it, this is the result when you play that way. TSM won game one by going underneath of Liquid and snowballing with a full tempo draft, they failed the next two games. Then also settled into a more scaling look and as I’ve said time and time again, when two teams are a certain threshold of quality both opt to handshake into these scaling drafts you’re agreeing to giving up potential equity and letting the game become closer to a coin flip that hinges on one big fight or mistake. Liquid were out team fought in this series by TSM and the game five draft didn’t allow them much agency if they were being bullied off of objectives. These comps are fine and can work but this is what can happen when you let games get to this point and aren’t able to rely on the opposing team making egregious errors.
Liquid are still a solid team but TSM were better on the day. They’re going to have to figure out a few things before worlds. In good news, Broxah had a pretty good series in the final three games in particular and was able to brush off a lot of criticism I’ve had for him (for different reasons than most people). Liquid need to become more comfortable with playing aggressive or they’re going to struggle. I like discipline as much as the next guy but you can’t rely on the enemy to make mistakes at Worlds, the teams are simply too good.
Futures Lost: -3.0 units (DRX 2 units, Liquid 1 unit)
Future Hedges: +4.29 units (TSM +143)
In hindsight I probably should have gone slightly heavier on TSM if I thought they had a realistic chance of taking this series down. I could have doubled down with FlyQuest in the next series. Lesson learned. Didn’t think that through as much as I should have. Still a great day.
Saturday Daily Total: +11.055 units
LEC Summer 2020
Fnatic +164 (+1.5 maps @ -143, +2.5 @ -500, -1.5 @ +347, -2.5 @ +919) vs
G2 Esports -213 (-1.5 maps @ +112, -2.5 @ +346, +1.5 @ -500)
Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +228), 4.5 maps (over +167 / under -217)
Kill Total: 29.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -114 / -4.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 17.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +169 / under -227)
This is one of those series where you need to just throw the numbers out and I rarely say that. Fnatic vs G2 series always seem to be interesting whether they’re 3-0’s or 3-2 slugfests. Fnatic got the better end of the last one but I have a few thoughts on why I’ll be on G2 in this spot.
A lot of people are thinking Fnatic is the value here because they just beat G2 and many people are STILL disrespecting Rogue by saying things like “G2 looked a little shaky against Rogue.” Are we really condemning them for looking good but not tremendous against a great team but still winning the series? Is this the level we’ve gotten to? I think taking Fnatic here is a little too “cute.”
In the previous series, Fnatic were able to utilize the Lucian mid to limit Caps’ impact on the game and somewhat hide Nemesis. I don’t think we’ll be seeing Selfmade’s Hecarim or Nemesis/Bwipo’s Lucian at all in this series and while I’m open to other opportunities Fnatic could have prepared this week I doubt they have too many other tricks up their sleeve. It’s worth noting that I don’t think they’ll make the mistake of taking Kassadin again either so that’s perhaps something in Fnatic’s favor.
Speaking of preparation, one of the more interesting angles to both series tomorrow is playing a final the next day after playing a best-of-five the day before. It should be a huge advantage to the finals seeded team (FlyQuest/Fnatic) and along with side selection could prove quite the hill to climb. What’s interesting is that the teams that played Saturday likely spent most of their time preparing for that match and not finals, or at least used most of their time to do so. Fnatic likely split their preparation time which should provide another edge. Fnatic should have an edge in this aspect.
Individually I still think the same thing I did the first time. While I think Fnatic were being disrespected the last time out (-333 / +247) and were definitely the value, I do think we saw a higher range of outcomes performance, particularly from Nemesis and Hylissang who have been the higher variance players on Fnatic this year. If we expect even a little regression I think G2 are actually a great value play in a vacuum.
So we’re getting a lot of value on G2 from the line compared to last time but Fnatic have had time to prepare and Rogue just forced G2 to a grueling five game series today. Ultimately I think G2 are going to get this done but I think it could get ugly. Fnatic have so many things working in their favor but I just can’t get over the Caps / Nemesis matchup and I doubt we’ll get to see Selfmade completely take over games in the same way he did this last time out. The same goes for Hylissang. G2 had a solid game plan the last time out and I think with a few small tweaks we’ll see an even better one here. If Fnatic play toward their ceiling again then power to them but I’m riding with G2 Sunday.
29, 25, 33, 21, 34
These were the kill totals for each of the games in the last series. Quite the spread. This total is an absurd 29.5… just like it was last time. I’m going with the under just like I did last time. Especially if we see G2 take away some of the play making ability for Selfmade and Nemesis from last series.
Moneyline: G2 Esports -213 (4.26 units)
Spread: G2 -1.5 maps @ +112 (1 unit)
Spread: G2 -2.5 maps @ +346 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 29.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 29.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 29.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Parlay (2): G2/FNC OVER 3.5 maps + TSM/FLY OVER 3.5 maps @ -142 (2.84 units)
Parlay (2): G2 ML + TSM ML @ +197 (1 unit)
LCS Summer 2020
FlyQuest -125 (-1.5 @ +170, -2.5 @ +479, +1.5 @ -312) vs
Team Solo Mid +100 (+1.5 @ -222, +2.5 @ -769, -1.5 @ +234, -2.5 @ +629)
Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -345 / under +254), 4.5 maps (over +149 / under -192)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -111 / +2.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5
Time Total: OTB
Santorin and PowerOfEvil are the only mid/jungle duo that can consistently hang with Bjergsen and whoever his jungler is and that makes FlyQuest uniquely well-positioned to play against TSM compared to most teams. The reinvention of WildTurtle is another angle to consider as well given the liability he’d have been in a series like this in the past. I think this series is going to come down to the top lane more than anywhere else.
Solo has been an absolute rock this season but he’s done so with a very limited champion pool. The fact that FlyQuest aren’t really able to threaten to play most of the carry top laners is a huge detriment in the draft and I think with how well BrokenBlade has been playing of late this could be a potential problem not just because you can’t threaten it but also because you can’t take any of his picks away. To me, this is the pivotal lane matchup in the series.
At the end of the day I think this is essentially a coin flip. FlyQuest get the advantage of more preparation time and having the opportunity to watch TSM yesterday as well as side selection. They should also be less fatigued since TSM played a five game slugfest yesterday. FlyQuest are also much more willing to play uptempo compared to a team like Liquid who are more linear unless they get Twisted Fate. In a vacuum without all of the factors of the extended time vs played yesterday angle I’d give a very slight edge to TSM but I think the advantage of side selection and the extra preparation time make this line just about perfect.
I won’t be playing a side here (besides the previous parlay) but I will be playing the over 3.5 maps since I could see this one going the distance in a lot of scenarios. I’ll also be on the over 24.5 kills. Both of these teams are significantly bloodier than Liquid and considering how close this series should be I think we’ll see a few prolonged, close games with a lot of back-and-forth.
Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -345 (6.9 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)