Saturday, June 27th Recap

 

 

Suning vs Dominus (Net:  -2.0 units)

Dominus sometimes have decent starts and then they just completely lose their cool at some point and eventually the game. It’s like they can’t hold serve. Now, they didn’t really have the lead at any point in game one, that’s what happened. Game two they jumped out to a huge 7-0 lead with three drakes and closed. Game three, Suning jumped to a lead, punted a fight that made it look like Dominus were back in the game but they immediately played the next fight poorly. Xubin makes a lot of positioning errors. Admittedly in this third game he was on Miss Fortune against Bard, Jax, Trundle, Ashe, Galio, that’s not easy to navigate or get good ultimates on but he’s still having trouble acclimating to pro play.

eStar vs FunPlus (Net: -0.479 units)

FunPlus have been struggling with execution but it was significantly better in this series which was great to see. eStar didn’t go down without a fight and appropriately found their windows to try to get back into these games but FunPlus were just the better team today.

LPL Total: -2.479 units

 

SeolHaeOne Prince vs Gen.G (Net: -1.0 units)

We got to see Kuma and Keine for Prince. Bdd broke out the Taliyah mid again and Rascal played the tank Karma top. Ultimately this series was Gen.G taking care of business. It was a lot bloodier than I thought it would be. Gen.G haven’t been playing slow and controlled by any means despite their statistics but in this series they ended up having the kills to show for it for a change. Prince didn’t stand a chance in this series but I’ll admit they did play a decent opening in game two but were outplayed on a micro level in a few early game bottom lane dogpiles.

Ruler played a tremendous series here. He was so efficient in both games, outplayed a few situations he had no business outplaying (including nearly 1v1ing Aphelios as Ashe without ultimate in game 1). He and Life were a big part of the reason why the big fights in the bottom lane ended up in Gen.G’s favor. Don’t forget about how good this team is amidst the hype of all the new rising LCK stocks.

KT Rolster vs DAMWON (Net: -2.39 units)

We saw some real spice in this series. Kuro with the Lulu mid in an all-in protect the Aiming Aphelios comp with Yuumi as well. Canyon with the Unsealed Spellbook Fiddlesticks jungle. Game one had a few extremely close mid game fights that could have gone either direction. Game two was a DAMWON stomp. I still think KT are going to be very good but they ran into a red how DAMWON Gaming here and hung tough in the first game before taking a right hook right on the chin in game two.

LCK Total:  -3.39 units

 

Vitality vs SK Gaming (Net:  -2.175 units)

Vitality played a good game. There wasn’t anything particularly good or bad, Vitality just looked solid.

Misfits vs Excel (Net: -1.0 units)

This was close for awhile but the Patrik Kogmaw didn’t have a big enough front line to ever have time to sit and DPS. I liked the idea but they need a stronger tank next time or to just get ahead.

Origen vs Schalke 04 (Net: +1.303 units)

Looked close for awhile but Origen ended up winning through a thousand cuts eventually breaking down Schalke over the course of the game. This team is so disciplined.

MAD Lions vs Rogue (Net: +2.999 units)

Ivern, Illaoi, Senna+Wukong again… like what’s not to love about Europe right now honestly? Great ideas to counter by Rogue with the Illaoi vs low range/dive and the Ivern to help protect the Wukong and Azir. These team fights were absolutely insane. So many cooldowns to keep track of really tested the discipline of both of these teams. Ekko, TK eat, Illaoi ult, Senna invisibility, Ivern brush+Wukong invisibility, Senna healing, Azir ult… just so many things to keep track of.

Both of these teams played this well, MAD are just on another level right now. Team is seriously good.

G2 Esports vs Fnatic (Net: +0.02 units)

I’ll never not love G2. Honestly that’s become Europe. Constant fights on the edge with full on confidence. I loved this draft too. Outer lanes that are easy to gank with Morde ult + Panth/TF ult. Kalista+Nautilus + Panth/TF ult. Just made playing to side lanes, G2’s bread and butter, so easy for them.

 

LEC Total: -0.552 units

SK not taking care of business really boned us in the LEC but a few of these games didn’t go quite like I expected to so fair trade I suppose.

 

100 Thieves vs CLG (Net: +1.19 units)

100 Thieves drafted Volibear with limited other engage and didn’t get ahead. What ends up happening is if you get behind as a team with no engage you’re not at the objectives ahead of time to use them as a way to force the enemy team to come to you. That’s what happened here.

TSM vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +0.996 units)

People can criticize EG for putting Jiizuke on Karma but it’s a powerful pick and plenty of other hard carry mid laners around the world are playing it too. I don’t have a problem with it. Really the rest of the map was just outplayed in this one. Nice, clean close by TSM here.

Liquid vs Dignitas (Net: -0.299 units)

This one got really weird. Liquid had to hard commit to a split push and tooling Dignitas around the map once their mid game stagnated due to a few mistakes with people getting caught out (and good choices by Dignitas). Eventually they got there but the way this one went down ruined our kill spreads.

Golden Guardians vs Immortals (Net: -1.0 units)

Golden Guardians lost a few of their early skirmishes. Frankly they played a little bit disrespectfully but not so much that it’s why they lost. Immortals Academy just brought it to them. This was a classic case of why you don’t automatically bet the favorite in spots like this. I mentioned that GG probably didn’t watch a lot of IMTA film all week preparing for this match and that can be a big advantage. The players aren’t that much worse in academy and a few of these guys have played on the big stage before. Bummer we missed our over by one kill :-/

 

 

LCS Total: +0.887 units

 

Daily Total Net: -7.354 units

 

Not a good day. SK Gaming, eStar, and KT Rolster were the big let downs. Had a couple big hits too though. Onto the next one.

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 4 – Day 7

 

LNG Esports -109 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +257) vs

Vici Gaming -118 (-1.5 maps @ +243)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -114 / -2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan

VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Hang

 

LNG opting to go back to Flandre after some apparently off-field issues earlier in the year (contract I believe). It’s just weird to me because Chenlun17 has been playing really well. Vici are starting Zeka over Forge which is a little odd but given Forge’s poor performance recently is probably deserved. Zeka was good in his last outing.

I’m going back to the Vici well. I know they’ve been bad but I think this is a stylistically bad matchup for LNG. Vici like to be the first to make a play. It doesn’t always result in kills or action but they want to be the proactive team and that’s what they’re good at. LNG just let the action come to them which, as I’ve chronicled over the past few weeks, is just not how you want to be playing LOL right now.

LNG are highly fraudulent. They don’t have a single game win this season that wasn’t handed to them. They don’t have any leads that they’ve created themselves either. For as bad as Vici have been this line is just off. LNG are terrible and likely a bottom three or four team. Vici will still end up in the middle of the table by seasons’ end.

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.09

Time-projected:23.68

Implied-Odds: 20.14

Underdog Win: 31.76

“G” Projected Total: 22.63

Some of these numbers are out of whack from a few outliers because it’s still early in the season. I think this will still come in under though.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: VG 75% / LNG 72.73%

First Tower: VG 21.42% / LNG 28.57%

Not enough value in either market to mess with them.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Vici Gaming -118 (1.77 units)

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +243 (0.75 units)

 

 

 JD Gaming -714 (-1.5 maps @ -169) vs

Rogue Warriors +458 (+1.5 maps @ +133)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -109 / +8.5 @ -120

Time Total: 32:00

Starting Lineups:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao

RW – Holder, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Xunyu

 

At some point this season, Rogue Warriors are going to take some games. I’ve whiffed on four opportunities with them as underdogs and three of those would have been a profit if they took the game that they were winning down. They punted all of them. I do like that Haro is back and I do think this is the best possible iteration of their roster but we saw a good argument for the “Form is temporary, class is forever” cliche today with FunPlus vs eStar and I think we’ll see JDG, who were in a similar boat to FPX, come out and just completely smash this series.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.7

Time-projected: 28.99

Implied-Odds: 29.77

Underdog Win: 24.58

“G” Projected Total: 29.12

At such a high total I want to just take the under, especially because I think JDG are going to destroy Rogue Warriors. The projections suggest otherwise but I’m going take a half stake on the unders. This should be a dominant JDG showing.

Other markets:

First Blood: JDG 33.33% / RW 37.5%

First Tower: JDG 14.28% / RW 21.42%

Typically I like the underdog first blood and tower in these spots because you can get plus money on what’s often closer to a 50/50 than people think but RW haven’t really been a great first blood team either and you can only get +113. I’ll pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 26.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 2 – Day 5

 

The LCK will still be primarily based on film evaluation until we get more data but as it rolls in I’ll be incorporating it more and more into my analysis as we go.

 

DragonX -370 (-1.5 maps @ -105) vs

Afreeca Freecs +267 (+1.5 maps @ -122, -1.5 @ +620)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 7.5

Time Total: OTB

 

Afreeca managed to take a game off of T1 before they were decisively beaten down in the next two  when Ellim came in to relieve Cuzz who was having an off day. Afreeca have been playing really well but we saw what happened when they faced one of the truly elite teams even with substitutes in. Even though it might be easier to hide weaker players in the mid lane now more than it ever has been, it still cropped up as an issue.

My numbers suggest a play on Afreeca as an underdog here at this number but I think DragonX are another one of those elite teams and even if I like Afreeca as a punch up underdog I have a hard time seeing them taking this series against one of the top teams in the world. The things DragonX does are more repeatable and consistent than Afreeca who rely on getting the ball rolling early. I also think they’re much more creative. Not to mention it’s challenging playing two elite teams back-to-back over a short period like this.

Totals:

Projecting for KPW and KPL numbers for this over implied odds suggests and over but I’ll be passing as this total is very close in a DRX win against a good team like I’m anticipating.

Other Markets:

None for now.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: DragonX -370 (1.85 units)

Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -105 (0.5 units)

 

 

T1 -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -185) vs

Sandbox +552 (+1.5 maps @ +145)

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -119 / +7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 32:00

 

Sandbox looked better already but I still think they’re a long way from competing with the elite teams in the LCK. Perhaps by the end of the season. I think Sandbox might try something tricky here but it’s just so difficult to rattle T1 who look good no matter who is in the lineup. Ellim came to relieve Cuzz and just dominated the next two games against an Afreeca team that’s been looking good recently. It’s tough to argue against a T1 sweep even if you’re getting +145 on Sandbox to take a game.

 

Totals:

I’d normally love the under here but I wouldn’t put it past Sandbox to try some whacky strategy particularly with YamatoCannon and his European influence at the helm. I’ll be taking a half stake on the over at this small number.

Other Markets:

None for now.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -189 (1.89 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -116 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -118 (1 unit)

 

I’ll also be parlaying a few of the heavy favorites tomorrow in various iterations of the spreads and moneylines.

Parlay (2): DragonX ML + T1 -1.5 @ -106 (0.53 units)

Parlay (2): DragonX -1.5 + T1 -1.5 @ +198 (0.25 units)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 3 – Day 3

 

I’ll be writing on the LCS tomorrow morning.

 

100 Thieves +155 vs Team Solo Mid -200

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -118 / -5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

I have to admit, Spica has impressed me through the first two weeks. He and Bjergsen have been on point and playing with a lot of confidence. 100 Thieves are the opposite. Meteos has struggled so far, Ryoma’s shortcomings are showing up more often than they did last season. 100 Thieves haven’t made the same adaptations that many teams with non-elite mid lane talent have across the globe by getting Ryoma onto champions that get out of lane. Instead he’s played Azir (3x), Orianna, and Zoe. They’re parking him in lane when they should be playing to their outer lanes. The longer he stays in lane the more he can be outplayed individually.

100 Thieves have faced a difficult schedule thus far opening with Evil Geniuses, Cloud 9, and Team Liquid but in their two “easy” series against Immortals and CLG they only beat Immortals and weren’t able to get ahead enough with the Volibear jungle that NA seems to be addicted to.

I think TSM are going to roll here. It’s one of the few teams that 100 Thieves don’t severely outclass in the side lane so the advantages they can get there won’t be able to carry them to a victory. TSM are buzzing right now with their top question mark coming into the season in Spica playing in tip top form. I’m going to split my action here but more toward the kill spread.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -200 (1 unit)

 Kill Spread: TSM -5.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

 

Immortals +874 vs Cloud 9 -2500

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -116 / -10.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

This is down from -3333 yesterday… THE VALUE!?!?!

I told everyone yesterday not to assume an automatic victory just because an academy team is playing. Nobody in NA except for the top teams is that much better than anyone else. You bring a bunch of guys hungry for a contract in a prove it situation against a team that probably didn’t watch a lot of film or prepare for them all week, not to mention the burst of energy and it can be a disaster.

Immortals appear to be playing the academy squad again today. The difference is, this is Cloud 9 not Golden Guardians.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some cheese in some way, shape or form. Perhaps an Insanity Karthus even (although doubtful it’s mega bad right now). I absolutely love the OVER in this spot. C9 are either going to style like crazy or this is going to turn into a “for fun” scrappy bloodbath. I’ll be playing alternate totals as well.

C9 probably cover the kill spread as well but it just depends on how much they want to play with their food. 10.5 is a gigantic number. I’m going to play this through the total rather than the spread.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ +101 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ +116 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ +134 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +156 (0.25 units)

 

Golden Guardians +212 vs FlyQuest -286

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -112 / -7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: OTB

These are some of my favorite spots betting in any sport; a team coming off of an “embarrassing” performance. Frequently there is a massive overreaction. Golden Guardians has a little less than 18 hours to prepare for a single game. Normally these teams spend all week preparing by studying film and creating strategies to practice that fit the drafts that they’re going to try to use. All of that was thrown out the window. As much as you could say “oh but it’s a minor league team” the fact is that the gap isn’t as large as it appears, especially in North America where the overall quality in the playerbase is lacking. Immortals Academy came in and caught Golden Guardians off guard.

There’s a chance we see GG tilt a bit and unfortunately for them, FlyQuest are not an easy opponent but I’m going to be taking a shot on the Guardians. The line hasn’t gone completely ballistic or anything but we are getting some value as this opened -270/+200 earlier in the week.

FlyQuest have had a few higher kill games and Golden Guardians have tended to play directly into that sort of thing but 7.5 is a large kill spread for FlyQuest to cover and I think Golden Guardians will have a much stronger performance than they did yesterday.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +7.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

Dignitas +372 vs Evil Geniuses -566

 

Kill Total: 19.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -111 / -7.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

In a similar fashion, I don’t think we should overreact to the Evil Geniuses performance against TSM yesterday. Clearly that line was egregiously mispriced. They weren’t deserved -200 favorites so we need to temper our expectations accordingly. A lot of people didn’t like the Jiizuke on Karma angle but all the hard carry mid laners have had some games on it and most of them have been successful. It doesn’t “feel” good but it is good.

Dignitas lost a big of a heartbreaker to Liquid’s split push yesterday after seemingly stabalizing and even securing a soul. On one hand you could say the Liquid were trying a higher risk strategy and that if they played “straight up” they would have smashed but I thought it was an appropriate evaluation of the game state and that they played it out well enough to win, although certainly far from perfect.

Dignitas are probably better than their record but the question is by how much. When you look at their rate statistics they are definitely one of the bottom teams in the league but not by that much. This line is a bit too rich and while I don’t think Dignitas will win this match, I do think the odds of them doing so are quite a bit more than the implied number we’re getting here. I’m going to take a 3/4 – 1/4 stake on the moneyline and kill spread. Given that this total is short and that Evil Geniuses have also been experimenting with different strategies I could easily see this coming in at or under the low total and Dignitas covering. I would have liked to get an 8.5 here, especially when you compare it to the last match where GG are getting 7.5 as +212 underdogs but that total was also higher. I like big spreads on short totals unless I feel strongly that it will go over.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +7.5 kills @ -111 (0.8325 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +372 (0.25 units)

 

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