Saturday June 13th Recap
LGD Gaming vs Victory Five (Net: +0.009 units)
Aphelios+Ornn strikes again in game two. I actually liked the Mordekaiser selection into it. The idea is you ult on Morde to stop Ornn’s ultimate and your team can then just dive the Aphelios for free. LGD had a Thresh/Ashe combination, Syndra, and Graves to make sure the carry would die in the time a Morde ult took Ornn out of the fight. However… Langx apparently didn’t understand that this was his only job in this game and LGD lost about four fights in a row and eventually the game. It blows my mind that people can’t identify such an easy role to play but I digress. LGD smashed game three in what should have been a clean 2-0. Teams will learn eventually right? RIGHT?! Then again this the LPL that took six weeks to figure out that eStar was doing the same thing every game so who knows.
EDward Gaming vs OMG (Net: +1.08 units)
Game two got a little weird when, after a long pause and a level one jungle cheese for first blood put them ahead, EDG clowned around a bit and overdove a few times to feed Icon and OMG into the game. Icon got caught but nothing came of it. OMG called a cheeky baron while Curse was taking a dragon to get both, EDG went to contest, immediately recognized that Curse wasn’t there and booked it to the dragon. They had no ward, no vision, just recognized that the second OMG backed off baron that their tank couldn’t possibly be there and called the bluff. I normally love the play that OMG did there to “break” a game but EDG made the absolute sickest read on the situation instantaneously. Impressive. EDG ended up getting their third drake and came back and demolished the baron fight as well as taking the baron and the 8-2 OMG lead vanished just like that.
EDG clowned around a bit and still won this game. OMG got cheesed level one, fed back into the game, a second chance and still screwed it up somehow. This team is bad. They need wholesale philosophical changes. The players aren’t even the problem. OMG have better players across the board than a team like Victory Five but look at the differences. Wake up and join the 2020 season OMG…
LPL Total: +1.089 units
(will update later tonight)
Schalke 04 vs SK Gaming (Net: -0.1 units)
SK Gaming looked squeaky clean and perfectly snowballed this game out. I’m really impressed with how they’ve looked so far but it will be interesting to see how they perform against teams that will challenge them early because they’ve beaten back-to-back scaling focused squads.
Rogue vs Misfits (Net: 0 units)
Rogue absolutely dominated and look to be in peak form right now.
Excel vs MAD Lions (Net: +2.0 units)
This one got a little chippy but MAD Lions just outclassed Excel all around.
Fnatic vs Vitality (Net: +1.0 units)
I felt Vitality actually had a draft edge in this game but Hylissang masterfully played the Blitzcrank and Bwipo managed a difficult matchup top lane excellently. Seeing Rekkles play the Syndra was a breathe of fresh air. Syndra+hook champion is one of the best answers to Aphelios and I hope more teams begin to adapt it.
G2 Esports vs Origen (Net: -0.78 units)
I did not see this one coming but Origen kept this game slow paced, where they’re successful and outscaled with a tremendous late game team composition. Glad to see them not only shake off a weird loss yesterday but against a team they’ve struggled mightily to beat over the past two years. The top of the table in Europe is going to be really competitive.
LEC Total: +2.12 units
Evil Geniuses vs CLG (Net: -2.27 units)
EG, of all teams, with a literal perfect game is not what I expected to see. Team is rolling right now!
TSM vs Liquid (Net: +0.07 units)
This was rather clinical from Team Liquid from draft to end of game. They look sharp as well.
Immortals vs FlyQuest (Net: +1.0 units)
Loved the Cassiopeia pick to punish the Galio and to counter the dive on Immortals. Composition was well-built do protect WildTurtle and POE and Santorin’s Kindred ult was going to make things very difficult for the wombo combo on Immortals.
Golden Guardians vs Dignits (Net: 0 units)
This felt like Dignitas were a bit confused on what they wanted in draft. Their team comp screamed indecision to me. They didn’t pick any real bad champions and the comp wasn’t bad but it just felt like they were thrown off by what GG did. GG probably could have been a little cleaner overall but they had full control of this game from top-to-bottom.
LCS Total: -1.2 units
Daily Total Net: +2.009 units
Ornn’s Record: 2-0
LPL Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 7
Overall LPL Trends:
Favorites are 11-7 (9-9 against the spread)
Six out of 18 series have gone to a third game
Kill spreads are an even 21-21 between favorites/underdogs
Kill totals have gone under 23 out of 42 games
Time totals have gone under 27 out of 42 games
Favorite team totals have gone under 27 out of 42 games
Underdog team totals have gone over 22 out of 42 games
Suning Gaming +114 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +287) vs
Invictus Gaming -145 (-1.5 maps @ +202)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -102 / -3.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Invictus won the last meeting 2-0 as -885 favorites, there were 75 kills in two games
Oooff… So this one is tough. Suning have looked much improved this season with a decisive win against LNG, a competitive win against Team WE, and two close games against JDG. Invictus lost 0-2 to Team WE but probably should have won game one and were up against Ornn+Aphelios in both games as they stubbornly refused to ban or adjust their drafts accordingly to deal with it.
This line has moved from -345 / +241 at the beginning of the week to this number. The value is obviously now on Invictus but the caveat is whether or not you think this team is just bad now or not. I’ve been in a similar situation in my own play, refusing to admit that I can’t beat something and you can remain adamant about it for a long time but eventually the losses pile up and you admit defeat and just ban it.
At some point, Invictus have to realize a few things. First, that they need to be more proactive on the map than they have been this year. Ning should remedy some of that situation as his style when they were world champions was to ignore farming, risk getting behind in order to make plays and get his lanes ahead. It shouldn’t be a foreign concept to them. Second, they need to either find a non-Aatrox solution to Ornn, play it, or ban it because they aren’t ending games quickly enough primarily due to their proclivity to play “lane kingdom.”
Invictus have now lost 8 games in a row dating back to the 3rd place playoff match. Many of the middle and bottom of the table LPL teams have improved and even with four worlds slots, Invictus have to feel the looming threat of the chance that they don’t make playoffs.
It’s mostly because I’m having a hard time turning down almost 200 points of line movement but I’m giving Invictus another shot to prove to me that they see the obvious problem here. Their core philosophical issue isn’t something that they can fix over night but that’s also the difference between them being a playoff team vs a championship winning team not to just be a playoff competitior. If they fix their drafting issues they should be able to at least beat up on the middle and bottom of the table teams like they used to. Drop the egos and start winning again.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 30.05 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 28.35 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 34.0 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Suning, 26.77 kills.
This total is appropriately high. These teams totaled a whopping 75 kills in two games during their last meeting back on March 28th. I’m expecting an Ornn ban or selection from Invictus and unless they plan to try the Kayle out against it. In those situations the under is obvious but Suning have been a bloody winner AND loser so far in 2020. I actually think this total is a bit low especially because I think Invictus take the series but I could see this being a lopsided stomp one way or the other in enough situations that I’m just going to pass.
Moneyline: Invictus -145 (1.45 units)
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +202 (0.5 units)
JD Gaming +124 (+1.5 maps @ -238, -1.5 @ +336) vs
TOP Esports -159 (-1.5 maps @ +181)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -114 / -2.5 @ -115
Time Total: OTB
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
JDG won the last meeting in LPL Spring finals 3-2 as -150 favorites
Both teams looked a little rusty coming back from the Mid-Season Cup, TOP should have dropped game one to Rogue Warriors if not for a punt that would have made Shane Lechler proud. JDG played two competitive games against a surging Suning and had a few hiccups over the course of the series. I’d assume we’ll see a significantly better level in this finals rematch.
We talked a lot about this one on the podcast and the general idea is even if you are bullish one way or the other these two are still very evenly matched. To me this matchup is a 50-50 and I would have taken whoever had the plus money odds in this spot. Didn’t think I’d ever be loading up an underdog special on JDG but here we are.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 26.25 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 25.8 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 27.54 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case JDG, 27.08 kills.
TOP had a few outlier performances that boosted their overall kill totals last season. Rogue Warriors, their first opponent are a fairly bloody team themselves so ignore the 36 combined kills per game there. TOP have been a much more tempo and skirmish oriented team at and since the Mid-Season Cup. Karsa appears to be feeling much more confident. That said, I think we’ll see a competitive, high intensity game here with lower kills. The current metagame is not very kind to trying to go underneath and I doubt either of these teams will try to do so. I’d anticipate a more disciplined look from both sides and a lower scoring affair.
Spread: JDG +1.5 maps @ -238 (1.19 units)
Moneyline: JDG +124 (0.5 units)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +336 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
LEC Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 3
The LEC and LCS will be less detailed and more about roster evaluation and projection until we get to see more of these teams.
Although the books have adjusted slightly, the kill total under is currently 9-1 in Europe so we’ll be playing all of those again since I don’t think the adjustments were big enough. In a related market, favorite team totals have gone under in 8 out of 10. Underdog kill spreads are 6-4 while dogs are 5-5 straight up.
SK Gaming +187 vs MAD Lions -244
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ +101 / -5.5 @ -132
Time Total: OTB
I’m a big fan of what SK Gaming have done so far in but this will be the first team that will challenge them throughout the game. Origen and Schalke both tried a back foot, reactionary approach which allowed SK to snowball easily and efficiently but MAD will most definitely be on the more proactive side of things.
I could see the argument for giving the SK moneyline a shot here but I feel like MAD are a completely different style than what SK saw from Origen or Schalke. They’re also much more versatile and that has a good chance to throw them off.
Kill Spread: MAD Lions -5.5 kills @ -132 (1.32 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)
Schalke 04 +190 vs Rogue -250
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 13.5
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ +100 / -6.5 @ -130
Time Total: OTB
Rogue have dominated their first two opponents giving up a combined two kills and 6 towers over the span. In their draft today against Misfits I thought they were a bit cornered saving jungle until later and playing the Reksai as a “nothing much left” type of option before a creative level one bush cheese got them off to a good start. Inspired played this game masterfully. He had the full read on everything, was there exactly when he needed to be and applied pressure in all the right spots to get this game done and over with before Misfits had a chance to get online. He had Razork tilted and he was one of the best junglers in Europe last split.
I’m not getting in the way of this team right now. I know they’ve disappointed over the past season but we’ve always known this team’s upside to be scary and they’re playing toward the top of their range right now.Schalke appear to be set in their ways of scaling which is a fine place to be right now but if teams like Rogue can snowball the way they’ve been doing teams like that will struggle.
Rogue could start off 3-0 and I think they’re going to but I won’t rule out that this was a bit of “luck” as they’ve had good openings in both games and I’d like to see them face some adversity before commiting to “they’re good.” For the time being, however, Rogue “get it.” They know how the game is supposed to be played right now and they’re executing perfectly.
Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 kills @ -130 (1.3 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Origen -192 vs Misfits +149
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -109 / +5.5 @ -120
Time Total: OTB
After losing the scaling war to SK Gaming on day one, Origen tried the same approach with a much better composition against G2 and actually beat them. When Origen get to play their game and get information to figure out what everyone else is trying to do they’re excellent it’s when you go off script that they struggle.
Misfits probably should have won against Fnatic before a series of unfortunate events due to botched execution had a baron buff stolen and subsequently the game shortly after. Today they were nearly perfect game’d by Rogue.
The line value is gone from this one as you could have gotten -150 on Origen if you went in earlier but after the G2 win this moved up to -192. With how competitive Europe looks and the nature of the game currently I’m skeptical to pound on favorites but I do think Origen are the right side here. Dan Dan is outclassed by almost every top laner in the league to me whether his numbers show it or not. He frequently takes counter matchups and does nothing with them and just doesn’t have enough of a positive impact on most games. Now he gets to face one of the best in Alphari.
Misfits remain reliant on Febiven and Razork to carry them. I’d expect a better performance than the tilt fest we saw from Razork today but Origen are the side here even though we’ve lost some value with their G2 win. I was likely going to be on Origen unless there were some glaring red flags in that match but the boost of confidence certainly helps.
Kill Spread: Origen -5.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
G2 Esports -345 vs Team Vitality +244
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 8.5
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -122 / +9.5 @ -106
Time Total: OTB
G2 were corralled by Origen but I don’t see Vitality having the same success. It’s nothing against Vitality who look significantly better and more confident with Milica in the mid lane.
G2’s willingness to play poke compositions and the opportunity to play split push with Kassadin and Twisted Fate in the metagame is still going to make me lean towards unders even in G2 matches. The 9.5 kill spread is quite hefty given that I think this goes under but a clean win wouldn’t surprise me in the least here so I’ll pass on the sides altogether.
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ +100 (0.21 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ +120 (0.2 units)
Fnatic -667 vs Excel Esports +425
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -127 / +9.5 @ -102
Time Total: OTB
If you consider the strength of competition Excel have faced it’s a bit more understandable that they’ve started 0-2 especially given Rogue’s brilliant start but Fnatic are yet another step up. This team just lost a game with Varus and Karma, two nearly permanent pick/bans and two of the best picks right now overall and they were decimated. If they can’t win with overpowered champions then I’m not really sure what to expect from Excel.
Special was serviceable in his last step up to the big leagues but has been outclassed badly in both games so far and Excel generally seem a bit hesitant on what to do in most situations so far. I do think this team will get better once they’re more comfortable but unfortunately Fnatic aren’t a team that lets you get comfortable.
Normally I consider any underdog at this kind of number in a best of one. Especially in a metagame that’s closer to 50/50 like this current one but I just don’t see it happening right now. I think this total has the best chance of going over of the games on tomorrow’s slate since the suppressed 24.5 is low for a Fnatic game but I could see this ending something like 15-6 and will be on the under yet again but avoiding the Excel spread despite how tempting it looks.
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -109 (0.545 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +114 (0.255 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ +138 (0.2 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 3
Cloud 9 -500 vs 100 Thieves +339
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -128 / +8.5 @ -102
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
FlyQuest managed a pretty good early game against Cloud 9 before they turned the corner and smashed the game home on Friday night. 100 Thieves kept a game close against Evil Geniuses before a similar thing happened, EG turned the corner and smashed them.
I’m always one to consider big underdogs in this range in best-of-one leagues but Cloud 9 are on a completely different level than this league. The question is whether or not you think they can cover this spread. In 9 out of 26 wins last season, Cloud 9 would have failed to cover this spread. If you excluse playoffs from that equation 7 out of 18. Their season long AMOV was 10.96. This kill spread is reasonable given expectations according to those numbers but a lot depends on whether or not you think the total goes over or not. As you know, I’ve been on every single NA over. Cloud 9 tend to have bloodier games in the vein of G2 or Fnatic. I think Cloud 9 can win this can cover the spread.
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -8.5 kills @ -128 (0.64 units)
Dignitas +168 vs Team Solo Mid -217
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -103 / -5.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
This total came down from -278 / +200. The total also came down from 23.5 to 20.5. Liquid utterly dominated TSM yesterday but I also think Liquid are one of the best teams in the league. Dignitas struggled mightily to keep up with Golden Guardians in a fairly normal looking game. I was a bull for Dignitas before the season but they look slow at the moment.
I still have my questions about TSM’s jungle situation and would love any opportunity to fade them but we’re actually getting decent value on their spreads now that this has been bet down quite a bit. That said, I’ve got a weird feeling about this one and I’m just going to stay away. I will, however pound these overs which have been crushed to the 20.5 range.
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -120 (1.8 units)
Team Liquid -238 vs Golden Guardians +180
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -116 / +6.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
Another total that was moved from 23.5 to 20.5. Another over bet from me.
Liquid looked great against TSM and while I don’t want to jump to any wild conclusions from one game, if they look that sharp already I think we can expect good things to come. Golden Guardians beat a slow motion Dignitas but I don’t think Liquid will allow them the same luxury. I like this Golden Guardians team but Liquid are one of the elite teams in the LCS and we’re not going to get these kinds of numbers on them the rest of the season so I’m going to jump on the spreads.
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -112 (1.68 units)
Kill Spread: Liquid -6.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)
CLG +114 vs Immortals -145
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -112 / -4.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5
Total moved from 23.5 to 21.5. This was down to -132 or lower in some places and money has actually come in on Immortals weirdly enough.
A lot of people just assumed the Immortals substitutions would be a huge downgrade so money came in on CLG upon that announcement. Immortals did look really poor in their first outing but their draft was extremely awkward. Karma-Graves-Galio-Kaisa-Nautilus isn’t terrible on paper but they were up against Ezreal+Cassiopeia. In theory you have Nautilus ultimate+Kaisa ultimate+Galio ultimate but you’re also putting your primary carry in harms way. The problem ended up being that this team didn’t have a good way to get to and stick to an Ezreal. They also had to dive into Cassiopeia and Kindred ultimate. Immortals weren’t going to win this game without a tremendous snowball against any time much less a solid FlyQuest. I’m giving the players a pass on this one, they were behind before it started.
I didn’t expect much from either of these teams. Like many, I leaned toward betting CLG due to continuity vs substitutes but assumed there wouldn’t be a lot of value by the time I got around to it. To my surprise, Immortals got some adjustments back/money to boost this a bit back toward them.
This is a close your eyes special. Both of these teams look terrible to me so I’ll take the underdog in the 50-50 matchup. The CLG kill spread is actually a pretty good value here too considering you usually see a smaller spread on moneylines this close. I’ll be taking an alternate spread to get a little more value on this one. If I trusted Immortals to cover a -6.5 I’d try a middle of +136 on the CLG +0.5 / Immortals -6.5 @ +123 but I’m just going to stick to CLG.
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Spread: CLG +0.5 kills @ +136 (1 unit)