Saturday, July 25th Recap
Some of these recaps are bare, had a few unexpected scheduling conflicts come up today that limited the amount of time I had to work. Will update them likely tomorrow night. At least the totals are here.
EDG vs FunPlus (Net: +4.305 units)
Vici vs OMG (Net: 0 units)
LPL Total: +4.305 units
T1 vs Hanwha Life (Net: +0.57 units)
DragonX vs Gen.G (Net: +1.47 units)
LCK Total: +2.04 units
Vitality vs Excel (Net: no action)
Misfits vs Schalke (Net: no action)
G2 Esports vs Rogue (Net: -1.2 units)
MAD Lions vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.14 units)
Fnatic vs Origen (Net: no action)
LEC Total: -2.34 units
100 Thieves vs CLG (Net: +1.065 units)
TSM vs Dignitas (Net: -0.43 units)
Golden Guardians vs FlyQuest (Net: -2.44 units)
Cloud 9 vs Immortals (Net: -0.27 units)
LCS Total: -2.325 units
Daily Total Net: +1.68 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 7
BiliBili Gaming +449 (+1.5 maps @ +130, -1.5 @ +811) vs
JD Gaming -714 (-1.5 maps @ -167)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -127 / -8.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
JDG are 10-1 straight up, 5-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -422)
JDG are 18-10 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.32)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 16 out of 28 games where JDG were favored (avg total: 24.73)
JDG have won by an average of 9.375 kills in their past 8 wins
JDG have covered their team total in 18 out of 28 games as favorites (avg total: 14.59)
Opponents have covered their team total in 15 out of 28 games as underdogs vs JDG (avg total: 9.5)
BLG are 2-7 straight up, 6-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +269)
BLG have covered the map spread in their past four appearances as underdogs (vs LNG, IG, SN, WE)
BLG are 10-13 against the kill spread as underdogs but 6-5 in their past four underdog appearances
BiliBili have looked significantly improved since Meteor rejoined the lineup taking games off of WE, Suning, and Invictus as well as series wins over the weaker Dominus, LNG, and OMG. Their focus on pushing the pace and snowballing with pacing based junglers like Olaf and Nidalee has forced teams to draft differently and account for them in much the same way they do against Victory Five. Meteor has also had a few excellent showings on the more traditionally balanced selection of Trundle which is his most played this season.
JDG sit atop the LPL table alongside Invictus and TOP with 10 match wins and they’ve been looking more and more like the Spring champion version after a bit of a rusty start to the season. They’ve punted a few games to weaker teams like LNG and RW but for the most part JDG have completely dominated of late.
My early game rating blend which is a mixture of firsts and gold differentials at 10, 15, and 20 has these two teams neck and neck ahead of all but V5, FPX, LGD, and TOP (who have a ridiculous rating…). This accounts for trending factors. BLG have a good idea on how to play the game right now so I think they’re totally live to take a game here and considering that their season is essentially over with a loss here I’d expect them to throw the kitchen sink at JDG. JDG are sitting pretty and while they’ll be battling for a top two seed I have a hard time justifying a favorite this large against any competent team. that has a good idea on how to play the game right now.
Odds Weighted: 25.514
Underdog Win: 22.378
“G” Projected Total: 24.84 kills
Could see this snowballing one way or the other or becoming stalled out because BLG have struggled to closer on occasion. I’ll pass this number is right.
JDG game times: 31.42 / 32.32 / 29.52 (average / in wins / in losses)
BLG game times: 32.31 / 33.11 / 31.71 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.86 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.89 minutes
Similar to last number, if these teams win the way they want to this will be fast no matter who wins (despite BLG’s numbers). I’d lean under but pass.
First Blood: JDG 46.43% / BLG 50%
First Tower: JDG 42.85% / BLG 53.57%
First Dragon: JDG 60.71% / BLG 46.43%
First Herald: JDG 46.43% / BLG 53.57%
I like BLG first blood, tower, and herald here quite a bit.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ +130 (1 unit)
Moneyline: BiliBili +449 (0.5 units)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +811 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 BLG first tower @ +121 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 BLG first tower @ +121 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 BLG first blood @ +102 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 BLG first blood @ +115 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 BLG first herald @ +147 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 BLG first herald @ +147 (0.5 units)
TOP Esports -213 (-1.5 maps @ +154) vs
Invictus Gaming +163 (+1.5 maps @ -200, -1.5 @ +395)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -125 / under -103)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -122 / +4.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan
TOP are 10-1 straight up, 8-3 against the map spread as favorites
TOP are 12-13 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -7.86)
Invictus are 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the map spread as underdogs (vs FPX, JDG, V5)
Invictus are 4-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +3.5)
This is a potential finals preview if you ask me. As Invictus continue to round into form and appear to have finally learned how to play Season 10 LOL along with the re-addition of Baolan to the lineup, I think you’re looking at two of the top three teams in the LPL right here. TOP are pretty clearly the best team in the world at the moment and it’d be tough to make an argument against them. They’re far and away the best team in the world according to the model who has them in the 90th percentile in almost every meaningful metric and many far more than that. The eye test? Yea they’re pretty damn good.
TOP have a surprisingly difficult schedule to finish the season with Invictus, eStar, RNG, Suning, and Team WE as their final five so believe it or not, I could actually see them not finishing in first place to end the regular season although I still think that’s the most likely outcome.
I’m going to be on Invictus here for a few reasons.
First, Invictus are trending in the right direction and have been steadily improving as the season has gone on. TOP have certainly maintained their level so it’s not like they’ve dropped off but I keep an eye on teams with an upward trajectory.
Second, Invictus have the individual players the hang with TOP unlike a lot of teams. Rookie is the only mid laner in the LPL that I would put on the same level as Knight. Personally I think he’s slightly better but that’s nitpicking. The point being the two of them are far better than the rest so Knight will be challenged significantly here unlike in almost every other series. TheShy, for all his warts, is a stronger top laner than 369 at least to me, despite overall performance this season. I also think Baolan even though he’s only been back for a bit, is generally a stronger player than Yuyanjia who is still in the first year of his career. Karsa obviously has the edge in the jungle. Jackey obviously has the edge on Puff but Puff has also been playing much better of late The main point here is that Invictus have the talent to actually challenge TOP individually.
Third, diversity of strategies. Invictus sometimes look stupid when they play different compositions but they’ve actually shown quite a bit of versatility in the past four weeks or so in terms of draft and handling different compositions effectively. TOP have been similarly versatile. So TOP shouldn’t really have an edge here like they do against most teams.
TOP are a better team for sure but I think Invictus are significantly better than they’re being rated and warrant a play here despite the numbers saying this is about right/lean TOP. This will be, in my opinion, the toughest task TOP have faced so far this season just because of how Invictus match up against them individually and stylistically. Both of these teams are also capable of snowballing any tiny advantage into a gigantic lead and quickly closing the game.
Underdog Win: 31.64
“G” Projected Total: 29.855 kills
So this total is batshit crazy and I think this will be a much closer and more competitive series than the total bloodbath that the projections expect but I’m just going to pass and lean under. This is a ridiculous number.
TOP game times: 32.0 / 33.52 / 33.37 (average / in wins / in losses)
IG game times: 30.82 / 29.64 / 32.91 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.41 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.6 minutes
Pass although I’d expect this to be on the under end of things given how good these teams are at snowballing a lead.
First Blood: TOP 56% / IG 36.11%
First Tower: TOP 60% / IG 52.77%
First Dragon: TOP 60% / IG 55.55%
First Herald: TOP 68% / IG 41.67%
I’ve talked a lot about how IG’s herald first has trended upward over the past few weeks as they’ve adjusted their big picture approach to the game so this season long number is always going to look bad. Unfortunately for us, these are all fairly priced and there isn’t a lot of value anywhere.
Spread: Invictus +1.5 maps @ -200 (2 units)
Moneyline: Invictus +166 (0.5 units)
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +404 (0.25 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 4
SeolHaeOne Prince +290 (+1.5 maps @ -119, -1.5 @ +647) vs
SANDBOX Gaming -417 (-1.5 maps @ -108)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -111 / -6.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -111 / under -118)
I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this one because it boils down to one simple thing; are SeolHaeOne bad enough that you wouldn’t even bother taking them even with a juiced up number?
Sandbox are ok but they shouldn’t be -417 against anybody. This game is the epitome of the close your eyes or hold your nose special.
Afreeca are a pretty good team, likely a 5th or 6th place roster in a fairly competitive league and they just obliterated SeolHaeOne in under 17 minutes in a professional game of League of Legends. It’s not like this was TOP Esports or Cloud 9 or DAMWON or whatever. Afreeca have been one of the slowest winners. Anyway, obviously one game isn’t everything but SeolHaeOne look like a complete and utter dumpster fire and while I believe in overreactions I’m not entirely sure I believe in backing this one.
The play here is to take SeolHaeOne to win a game or to just pass on a side altogether. Sandbox probably win but it’s not worth laying this kind of money. I’ll be passing.
Odds Weighted: 20.6
Underdog Win: 20.78
“G” Projected Total: 21.65 kills
Sometimes these games with the bottom two or three teams can turn into absolute fiestas but given Sandbox are in need of wins I think they’ll be trying to play this cleanly. I’d lean to the over but pass.
SBox game times: 32.02 / 33.72 / 31.06 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP game times: 30.25 / 33.46 / 29.58 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.36 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.8 minutes
Similar reason to above. Pass.
First Blood: SB 32% / SP 52.17%
First Tower: SB 56% / SP 17.39%
First Dragon: SB 52% / SP 52.17%
First Herald: SB 44% / SP 26.09%
I’ll take a shot at SP first dragon and first herald.
Prop: Map 1 SeolHaeOne first dragon @ +120 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 SeolHaeOne first dragon @ +121 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 SeolHaeOne first herald @ +124 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 SeolHaeOne first herald @ +124 (0.5 units)
KT Rolster -147 (-1.5 maps @ +207) vs
Team Dynamics +116 (+1.5 maps @ -278, -1.5 @ +299)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -119 / +2.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +107 / under -139)
KT are 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread (same) as favorites
KT are 3-5 against the kill spread as favorites (vs TD, HLE, SP, SB)
Dynamics are 2-6 straight up, 3-5 against the map spread as underdogs
Dynamics are 9-9 against the kill spread as underdogs
Two teams that I feel are underrated both by the books and the general public for more than a few reasons. I like what both of these teams do a lot. They’re intelligent. I do think KT have the better horses in this race though and I’d put them about half a tier better overall especially since they’ve been steadily improving as the season goes on and appear to have solidified the roster they like moving forward.
Odds Weighted: 24.18
Underdog Win: 20.53
“G” Projected Total: 23.24 kills
Over. Both of these teams are good at finding windows back into the game from a deficit and aren’t afraid to take their shots which typically leads to a few extra kills even from a losing position.
KT game times: 31.66 / 31.17 / 33.12 (average / in wins / in losses)
DYN game times: 32.54 / 33.84 / 31.88 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.87 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.04 minutes
Juiced appropriately. I’d still lean under but pass.
First Blood: KT 64% / DYN 38.46%
First Tower: KT 48% / DYN 50%
First Dragon: KT 72% / DYN 57.69%
First Herald: KT 60% / DYN 42.31%
Value on KT first blood and herald
Moneyline: KT Rolster -147 (1.47 units)
Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +207 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first blood @ -132 (1.32 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first blood @ -135 (1.35 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 2 KT first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 7 – Day 3
Had a bit of an emergency come up so these are going to be really short everyone. A lot of unforseen circumstances coming up this weekend I apologize for the brevity.
Dignitas +271 vs Evil Geniuses -385
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 13.5
Time Total: OTB
Dignitas literally looked like they were just going through the motions yesterday which is absolutely infuriating on so many levels but they did cover for us somehow. I don’t know if these players have just quit or what but I have to think the coaching staff laid into them after this one and I’d expect them to come out looking better here or at least putting up a fight. As good as Karthus is again, I think this team needs to be simplifying things and playing to their individual players strengths like they talked about on the broadcast. Get Aphromoo on an engage support and Dardoch on something that can get the ball rolling early.
Evil Geniuses looked much better in their first game on Friday night but I’m still really skeptical. Clearly the lineup change has helped so far but I still think this team is going ot have consistency issues despite the moves looking to clear that up.
As bad as Dignitas looked I just don’t think EG deserve to be favored by this much over anybody. The value isn’t great considering we got +6.5 vs TSM at -294 yesterday but I think Dignitas will put up a better fight this match by correcting some things. If they don’t then I’m considering Dignitas auto fade the rest of the season because if they roll over and die again then I’m assuming they’ve mailed the season in. This will be a good match to live bet on the draft even though live betting has all but been disabled due to the stream delays. If you see a non-engage support or farming jungler it’d be worth going against Dignitas.
Kill Spread (alt): Dignitas +7.5 kills @ -139 (1.39 units)
Team Liquid +192 vs Cloud 9 -256
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -104 / -5.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
This line was a little lower earlier in the week but jumped up after Liquid’s loss to FlyQuest on Saturday. Just to reiterate, in the best of one leagues, don’t overreact to a loss, especially if it’s a good team. And in season ten specifically, we’ve learned not to overreact to dramatic losses because of the tools given to snowballing teams making wins look very lopsided. It doesn’t make Liquid a bad team just because they lost to a FlyQuest team that had a rough few weeks (but look back to normal again).
That said, this is Cloud 9 and while I think Liquid are going to end up the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league they’re still a tier below Cloud 9. It’s rare to get low kill spreads like this with this team and I’ll be taking advantage.
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -5.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -6.5 kills @ +100 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -7.5 kills @ +127 (0.15 units)
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -8.5 kills @ +165 (0.1 units)
Counter Logic Gaming +186 vs Team Solo Mid -244
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -106 / -5.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5
Time Total: OTB
The last time we saw this matchup a few weeks back it was an absolute slugfest that TSM came out of with the win. TSM haven’t looked quite as sharp in some areas like their top and jungle, especially jungle, but they have improved overall as a team and appear to have a strong grasp on the different viable strategies in the current metagame. CLG have really just fallen apart slowly. I feel bad because until this last game Pobelter was turning in excellent performances game in and game out while everyone else just can’t seem to get up to speed. CLG aren’t a complete disaster but they’re going to struggle against the stronger teams. 100 Thieves completely bodied them tonight and I’d imagine we’ll see something similar albeit more conservative from TSM on Sunday.
I also like the under in this one. TSM have been very low kill in their wins especially recently and 22.5 is actually a fairly high number for the LCS. I think we’re only seeing this boost because of that bloodbath we saw last time these two squared off.
Moneyline: TSM -244 (2.44 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
100 Thieves +104 vs Golden Guardians -132
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -111 / -1.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5
Time Total: OTB
I’ve really liked the way 100 Thieves are playing with this new lineup. They’re aggressive, full of energy, and playing much more proactive LOL which is what you should be doing right now. I’ve also liked the way Golden Guardians have looked of late. This is a bit of a coin flip to me but I’d give a slight edge to 100 Thieves and they’re the dogs anyway. These two teams look like they’re solidifying themselves as the best of the rest and with a lot more upside than some of the bottom end teams.
Moneyline: 100T +104 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: 100T -1.5 kills @ +118 (0.5 units)