Saturday, July 18th Recap

 

Invictus vs RNG (Net: +0.54 units)

This series was so characteristically “on-brand” for both of these teams. RNG had MASSIVE gold leads in games one and two but lost the first and won the second. You could make an argument that RNG should have 2-0’d this series but I’ve spoken about the two-faced nature of this team so many times I sound like a broken record at this point. The comical thing about these games is that Invictus still had CS leads in both games which is somewhat meaningless but weirdly impressive. It’s a very IG thing to do. Anyway, IG stomped game three.

I thought Invictus would roll more convincingly in this series but they got the win.

BiliBili vs Dominus (Net: -6.83 units)

After a dominant game one snowball by BiliBili we got to see one of the more bizarre games in the past few weeks in game two; a 45 minute game of punt the game back and forth that eventually resulted in Aphelios+Ornn+Syndra > Dominus’ scaling. BLG still had a lead in this game for the first part of it before things got really weird.

Both of these teams are really unimpressive to me. I don’t really know what else to say on this one. BLG have been a bit of a public darling underdog since Meteor returned to the lineup and while they’re clearly improved they’re still not very good. Dominus are just… I think LNG is worse is about all I’ve got there.

 

LPL Total: -6.29 units

 

KT Rolster vs Sandbox (Net: -2.66 units)

These were a little slow but KT were fairly convincing in both wins. Turns out there was at least some reason to be a little skeptical on Sandbox. As they head into the more difficult back half of their schedule things are going to get tougher for them.

Gen.G vs T1 (Net: +5.0 units)

 I was so happy for Gen.G to see them get the monkey off their back here. They’ve been the better team this season.

T1 need to figure out their communication issues quickly or they’re going to be in trouble as we head toward the end of the regular season. I haven’t been a huge fan of their drafts either although I think that’s been the lesser of two evils when compared to their macro play of late. I still think T1 will pull it together but they’re not in form at the moment.

LCK Total: +2.34 units

 

I will recap LEC tomorrow when I get a chance to review these in more detail.

SK Gaming vs Schalke (Net: -0.5 units)

Rogue vs Excel (Net: -3.16 units)

Vitality vs Fnatic (Net: +1.0 units)

Origen vs Misfits (Net: +1.1 units)

G2 Esports vs MAD Lions( Net: +1.22 units)

 

LECTotal: -0.34 units

 

 

Cloud 9 vs Evil Geniuses  (Net: -4.86 units)

FlyQuest vs TSM  (Net: +1.3 units))

Golden Guardians vs Immortals (Net: -1.0 units)

CLG vs Dignitas (Net: +1.25 units)

 

LCS Total: -3.31 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: -7.6 units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 7

 

 

 

Vici Gaming +413 (+1.5 maps @ +119, -1.5 @ +901) vs

TOP Esports -625 (-1.5 maps @ -152)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -110 / -7.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Starting Lineups:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

VG – Cube, Aix, Zeka, iBoy, Hang

Trends:

TOP are 8-1 straight up, 6-3 against the map spread (avg odds: -870)

TOP are 11-10 against the kill spread (avg spread: -7.61)

Vici are 2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the map spread (same games) as underdogs (avg odds: +177)

Vici are 7-6 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.1)

 

Aix is getting the start because Leyan is apparently suspended for the series for some reason.

TOP are still the kings of the LPL despite losing to Victory Five for their first series loss of the season. I don’t expect them to miss a beat but there can sometimes be a bit of a lull in confidence after a loss like that. Personally I don’t follow that line of thinking, especially for this team.

Vici are quietly playing themselves into a playoff position. They nearly took a series off of JDG in their last outing and before that defeated FPX 2-1. Their only losses this season are to V5, JDG, WE and RNG (week one). I think this team is significantly better than a lot of people give them credit for and prior to the season expected them to improve steadily over the course of the season. Zeka has been outstanding and both junglers have done a lot of great things despite the back-and-forth of Kkoma’s two-jungler system. Vici understand what matters in the current state of the game and are capable of beating anybody. The question is how likely.

TOP are an elite team and while I think Vici are underrated I do still think the most likely outcome is a TOP 2-0. I just don’t think that’s more than 50% like these odds suggest. TOP’s game losses are to OMG, EDG, and V5. Vici are better than two of those teams. I also think that, at this point in the season, there’s a non-zero chance that TOP maybe take the foot off the gas a little. Vici still need every win they can get, TOP still have a cushion, at least against the middle of the pack. I’m not saying this is a let-down spot entirely it’s just something to consider.

TOP are one of, if not the best team in the world but I think getting this kind of number with any good team is worth taking a shot on.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.49

Time-projected: 25.61

Odds Weighted:  27.9

Underdog Win: 25.71

“G” Projected Total: 26.0 kills

I like the over.

 

TOP game times: 30.94 / 33.71 / 34.42 (average / in wins / in losses)

VG  game times: 31.51 / 31.61  / 31.43 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.22 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.65 minutes

31:00 is a pretty low number and is usually extra juiced but this is actually a pretty fair spot. TOP have averaged 29.05 minutes in their past 9 game wins. only 5 of their 17 wins have gone over the 31 minute mark. Vici also tend to win quickly with uptempo drafts as well. It’s odd but given recent performance I’d expect this to go under regardless of the winner.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: TOP 52.38% / VG 56.52%

First Tower: TOP 57.14% / VG 52.17%

First Dragon: TOP 61.9% / VG 52.17%

First Herald:  TOP 66.67% / VG 60.87%

Big dogs frequently mean overweighted props. I like all of the Vici objective props here. I also like the under dragons slain.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Vici +1.5 maps @ +119 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Vici +413 (0.5 units)

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +901 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -101 (1.01 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -101 (1.01 units)

Prop: Map 1 VG first blood @ +113 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 VG first blood @ +113 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 VG first tower @ +125 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 VG first tower @  +125 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 VG first dragon @ +127 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 VG first dragon @ +127 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 VG first herald @ +149 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 VG first herald @ +150 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Total Drags Slain UNDER 4.5 @ +168 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Total Drags Slain UNDER 4.5 @ +163 (0.5 units)

 

 

 

 

JD Gaming -227 (-1.5 maps @ +142) vs

FunPlus Phoenix +174 (+1.5 maps @ -185, -1.5 @ +428)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -112 / +5.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Starting Lineups:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

Trends:

FPX have only been underdogs to TOP

JDG are 8-1 straight up, 4-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -332)

 

Is there cause for concern about FPX? Yes, but if you showed me this line a week ago it would have been the easiest FPX play I’ve ever seen. It’s no disrespect whatsoever to JDG who are rounding into playoff form but this is a MASSIVE overreaction to an 0-2 loss that included one extremely disrespectful draft, and a lazy, mailed-in invade in game two. I’m not saying to throw away that series entirely but to call FPX bad based on this series and losses to TOP and a severely underrated Vici team isn’t really a fair characterization whatsoever.

This has been a recurring phenomenon across the globe. Expectations being broken doesn’t mean a team is the opposite now. FPX, JDG (earlier this season), T1. Are any of these teams bad or is it just overreaction to weird stretches or overly optimistic expectations? Works the opposite way too. Fnatic, G2, LGD, even FlyQuest in the LCS. Are any of those teams bad? No they just have high expectations set. Overreaction is king especially with time between matches. How quickly we forget…

JDG are deserving favorites here. The economy/objective blend model has them #3 in the league but this number is simply too high. V5 vs eStar was a similar line. TOP vs FPX was a similar line. Hell, earlier this season, JDG vs Dominus was a similar line. See what I’m getting at here?

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.27

Time-projected: 24.87

Odds-Weighted: 27.64

Underdog Win:  23.72

“G” Projected Total: 25.59 kills

Number is right on the money. I’d expect an under just because I think these will be faster games but I’ll be passing as this is an accurate line.

 

JDG game times: 31.38 / 32.15 / 29.93 (average / in wins / in losses)

FPX game times: 30.92 / 30.455 / 31.39 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times):  31.15 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.225 minutes

Unders make a lot of sense given how these two prefer to play.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: JDG 43.48% / FPX 61.54%

First Tower:  JDG 43.47% / FPX 42.3%

First Dragon: JDG 56.52% / FPX 53.85%

First Herald:  JDG 47.83% / FPX 46.16%

I’ll be on first blood for FPX. Everything else is appropriately juiced.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: FPX +1.5 maps @ -185 (2.775 units)

Moneyline: FPX +174 (1 unit)

Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +428 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first blood @ -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first blood @ -130 (1.3 units)

 

 

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 5

 

 

 

SeolHaeOne -108 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +262) vs

Hanwha Life -119 (-1.5 maps @ +235, +1.5 @ -357)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -118 / -111)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -112 / +1.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -109 / under -120)

 

The last time these two met was arguably the worst series of professional Korean LOL I’ve seen in the past five or more years. It was just awful. Things haven’t improved much for either of these teams.

In a series like this pick a horse and take the 2-0 or side with the best or most enabled player. Hanwha have better players they just haven’t been able to make anything work. I’ll be sticking with Viper and Lehends who have nearly carried games against good teams by themselves. They’re the two best players in this game by a decent margin.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 23.15

Time-projected: 24.0

Odds Weighted: 23.09

Underdog Win: 22.4

“G” Projected Total: 23.18 kills

If this is anything like last series the over is obvious but I think we might get a little better this time around so I’ll pass.

 

HLE game times:  32.23 / 37.88 / 31.38 (average / in wins / in losses)

SP  game times:  30.45 / 32.56 / 30.02 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.34 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.98 minutes

These teams have times all over the place because they’ve won very few games since the last time they played and that series was an absolute fiesta. I have no idea how these play out. Most of the time when these toilet bowls happen they’re on the slower side but given the 34 that the book posted I’m just not messing with this.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: HLE 39.13% / SP 55.56%

First Tower: HLE 21.74% / SPO  16.67%

First Dragon: HLE 43.48% / SP 61.11%

First Herald:  HLE 39.13% / SP 27.78%

Some of these numbers are dreadful. The book is placing appropriate juice on a lot of these but I do like SP first dragon at plus money and Hanwha first tower at -106. They’re juiced for the second map too much so I’ll be sticking to map one on those.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Hanwha -119 (1.19 units)

Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +235 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Hanwha first tower @ -106 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 SP first dragon @ +103 (1 unit)

 

 

 

DragonX -769 (-1.5 maps @ -182) vs

Team Dynamics +483 (+1.5 maps @ +140, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over-119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -119 / +8.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -143)

 

DRX have shown a propensity for punting random games by going too far off the deep end in drafts regardless of the opponent. I also think Dynamics are being disrespected here and are more than capable of punishing mistakes and closing with a lead. Dynamics aren’t a bad team but they’re being priced that way. DRX dominated the last time out but the number was also smaller (-500) then. This number is just too big. Small underdog special.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 23.72

Time-projected: 24.07

Odds Weighted: 24.96

Underdog Win: 21.69

“G” Projected Total: 24.25 kills

Both games went over the last time out and I think we probably see that again here.

 

DRX game times: 31.93 / 31.38 / 33.51 (average / in wins / in losses)

DYN  game times: 33.01 / 33.84 / 32.32 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.47 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.14 minutes

DRX do too many different things in the draft to make me confident in an under to lay juice on it but that probably is the play. I’ll be passing on it though hoping for some line movement.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: DRX 43.48% / DYN 40.91%

First Tower: DRX 39.13% / DYN 54.55%

First Dragon: DRX 56.52% / DYN 59.09%

First Herald: DRX 39.13% / DYN 45.45%

Another big dog means more big props. See below there’s a bunch.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Dynamics +1.5 maps @ +140 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Dynamics +483 (0.25 units)

Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +811 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)

Prop: Map 1 DYN first blood @ +109 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 DYN first blood @ +109 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 DYN first tower @ +119 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 DYN first tower @ +119 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 DYN first dragon @ +138 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 DYN first dragon @ +122 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 DYN first herald @ +122 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 DYN first herald @ +139 (0.5 units)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 3

 

100 Thieves +218 vs Team Liquid -294

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -108 / -6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Liquid are 2-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.625)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 5 out of 8 games where Liquid were favored (avg total: 20.0)

100T are 2-6 straight up, 4-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds: +207, avg spread: +6.375)

 

Liquid continue to show improvement as the season goes on and while they’ve been abysmal against the spread, they’ve been a highly effective LOL team. 100 Thieves were riding a three game winning streak into Friday’s loss to TSM which was not as close as the scoreboard would indicate. TSM were in full control for the vast majority of the game.

This is an interesting handicap because while I think Liquid are a far superior team, 100T have shown that they can be competitive against the top teams on a few occasions. This number is quite large and there’s value on the Thieves here. I’ll be diversifying my exposure through the kill spread and moneyline. Liquid have been absolutely dreadful against the spread covering just once in their past six matches and twice all season as favorites although one of those covers was against 100T in their last meeting.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: 100 Thieves +6.5 kills @ -108 (1.o8 units)

Moneyline: 100 Thieves +218 (0.5 units)

 

FlyQuest +318 vs Cloud 9 -455

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -105 / -7.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

C9 are 9-2 straight up, 6-5 against the spread as favorites (avg odds: -867, avg spread: -9.14)

C9 have covered their team total in 5 out of 11 games (avg total: 15.68)

FlyQuest are 3-2 straight up, 5-0 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds: +109, avg spread: +2.9)

 

Go figure I finally invest in C9 in a buy low situation and they drop two in a row.

 

Shake fist angry jon stewart GIF on GIFER - by Fetus

Everyone is acting like it’s the end of the world for C9. They dropped a few games it’s not a huge deal. They’re still the best team in the LCS by a pretty wide margin. However, I think the rest of the league is catching on to them a bit as we’re not six months into the season and teams have had plenty of time to digest film and study them.

I wouldn’t be surprised if C9 come out here and utterly stomp FlyQuest in this spot but the play is almost certainly to take +7.5 kills with a good team and a low total. FlyQuest covered as +8.5 kill dogs in a 17-11 game on opening weekend vs C9. I think they’ll get it again in a match that’s sure to be lower scoring as pressure mounts for playoff positions.

FlyQuest have the same first blood rate as C9 as well so we’ll take a shot on the plus money prop there. They also have similar herald rates so we’ll take the large plus money option in that market as well. I’ll also be taking the under. Both of these teams have high CKPM but I think this is going to be a closer-to-the-vest, higher pressure situation for both teams as wins become more important for playoff seeding and this is a very high total.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest +7.5 kills @ -105 (1.05 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +318 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: FlyQuest first blood @ +116 (0.5 units)

Prop: FlyQuest first herald @ +145 (0.5 units)

 

 

 

Counter Logic Gaming -143 vs Immortals +111

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -123 / +3.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

CLG have only been favored against Dignitas this season (they’re 1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread)

Since switching to this roster, IMT are 2-4 straight up, 5-1 against the kill spread as underdogs

Excluding Liquid, FlyQuest, and TSM, favorites are 10-11 straight up, 8-13 against the kill spread this season

If you add EG to that list, favorites are 6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the kill spread.

 

While I think CLG are fairly consistent and deserving favorites here, the rule of bottom six favorites applies which means a split moneyline and alternate spread play. I’ll also be taking the under.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +111 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: Immortals -0.5 kills @ +129 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

 

Golden Guardians -182 vs Dignitas +141

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -109 / +4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Golden Guardians are 3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds: -160.4, avg spread: -4.1)

Since switching to this roster (Dardoch/Fenix), Dignitas are 3-2 straight up, 4-1 against the kill spread as underdogs

Excluding Liquid, FlyQuest, and TSM, favorites are 10-11 straight up, 8-13 against the kill spread this season

If you add EG to that list, favorites are 6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the kill spread.

 

Dignitas have looked better with Dardoch and Fenix at the helm. Aphromoo played arguably his best game of the year yesterday and while V1per subbed in and was getting dominated in lane on his one trick Riven vs Ornn, he eventually got farmed up and managed to put together a good game although Dignitas probably had the game won without him on Riven anyway.

Golden Guardians have won four of their past six and have looked fairly solid themselves in that time frame.

The rule of bottom six favorites applies yet again here.

Some of the prop markets for this game are intriguing. Dignitas have had a better first blood rate although not enough so to justify the juice but I’ll be playing Dignitas first tower at +102 given the delta between these two and both being sub 50%.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +4.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +141 (0.5 units)

Prop: Dignitas first tower @ +102 (1 unit)

 

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