Saturday, July 11th Recap
Dominus vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -3.84 units)
Calling this series a fiesta would be a bit of an understatement but it was certainly an entertaining watch even if there wasn’t a lot of great LOL played in it. Still think Dominus was the right side but perhaps should have reconsidered the total or maybe played some sort of alternate over + under situation. This series was either going to be an absolute bonanza of kills or just a snoozer with not a lot in between. Might be worth looking at playing these series like that in the future.
TOP vs FunPlus (Net: -3.99 units)
This was a hell of a series to watch. Both teams played at a very high level but you also saw some of the emotion come into play. Each had a number of fights that they overplayed trying to chase a final kill down. I wrote about it on Twitter but Yuyanjia was the quiet MVP of this series. Go back and count just how many lives he saved with his guardian rune proc on teams with next to no health. Legitimately could have been a different series.
I’m glad TOP didn’t just roll over this and that FPX put up a fight. Good looks for FPX moving foward.
LPL Total: -7.83 units
Missed on literally every single bet in the LPL this morning. 0-9. Doesn’t feel great.
DragonX vs DAMWON (Net: +1.22 units)
I hated this game one team composition by DragonX so much. Karma top is fine if you’ve got a reason for it. Reksai to bridge you to mid/late game. Twisted Fate similar. Then you run Senna+Braum bottom lane? You have no DPS, it’s all single target burst which makes it tough to get through front lines AND do barons AND siege. Karma helps protect and helps boost DPS for attack speed users with Ardent Censor and her shield. Senna doesn’t benefit at all from attack speed… Twisted Fate somewhat does but not with an AP build. I like the idea of the “double swing” with the Senna double swing healing+damage with her ult and Q combined with the shields making it extremely difficult to win fights against them. I understand that they just want to play the most powerful champions but you’ve got to know how they fit together. This was another one of “those games” for DRX where they go a little too far off the deep end in the draft. Sometimes they just blind power picks and trap themselves.
Now DRX ended up winning this game somehow which is the other angle. This team is good enough to pilot these seemingly impossible team compositions and find ways to win with them. It took a weird overstay by DWG and an opt into a base race at the 34 minute mark when I think Nuguri probably could have just stayed and helped defend with his team but there’s a chance DRX win this one anyway.
Game two got pretty wild which is exactly the kind of game DWG thrive in. DRX kept it pretty close but Beryl sorta took over this one on the support Pantheon yet again. You love to see it!
Game three got very wild very early yet again. DWG got more out of the first 20 minutes of shenanigans and had a good setup to split push this game out but DRX made sure to force fights before they could set up and eventually the lack of a true frontline ended up being a problem for DWG as Chovy’s Azir hard carried all the later fights.
This looked like an LPL series. There was a lot of nonsense fighting which is very on-brand for DWG and not as much for DRX but DRX managed to beat DWG at their own game. I always like seeing teams that don’t thrive playing this way manage to do well enough at it to scrape out wins in games that would normally catch them off guard. DWG could have won this if they just settled it down once they got a lead but as we’ve seen in the past from them, they often get ahead of themselves and that’s what happened in games one and three. You could make a reasonable argument that DWG should have won this series.
Afreeca vs SeolHaeOne (Net: -0.92 units)
Afreeca are officially in time total timeout. They’re really REALLY cautious. I can respect it but against a team as poor as SeolHaeOne and with the leads they had in this game they definitely could have closed this out at least 3-5 minutes faster. Just something to note for the future. I was aware of it going into this series but didn’t really expect them to be this thorough against such weak competition. Maybe a little shell shocked after the whooping they just got from DWG and wanted to make sure they got the win. I respect it.
LCK Total: +0.3 units
Cloud 9 vs TSM (Net: +0.35 units)
It feels like every team that keeps it remotely close with Cloud 9 just caves in at some point. Eventually they just impose their will and you make the first drastic mistake and the game is over.
Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -2.63 units)
Just brutal… should have trusted my gut on this and stayed away.
Team Liquid vs CLG (Net: +0.757 units)
Pretty clean victory by Liquid but as usual low total game, spread covered.
FlyQuest vs Dignitas (Net: +1.0 units)
Should have stuck with a 2/3 + 1/3 split spread and ML but didn’t honestly think Dig would win this. I don’t know what happened to FlyQuest this weekend. I do think the overreaction will be crazy though. This is the first poor macro week we’ve seen from them literally all of 2020. I’m not selling my FlyQuest stock.
LCS Total: -0.77 units
Daily Total Net: -8.3 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 7
LGD Gaming -312 (-1.5 maps @ +110) vs
OMG +228 (+1.5 maps @ -141, -1.5 maps @ +548)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -127 / under -103)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -119 / +5.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -109)
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
LGD are 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the map spread as favorites this season
LGD are 6-4 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 18 LGD games this season
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 18 LGD games this season
OMG are 1-4 straight up, 3-2 against the map spread as underdogs
OMG are 7-5 against the kill spread as underdogs
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 14 out of 20 OMG games
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 20 OMG games
I made an oath on the podcast this week to never trust LGD to sweep a series. This team has chops out the wazoo but they’re just dumb as nails sometimes. I’ve preached time and time again about their lack of fundamentals. Poor target selection, inability to identify their own or opponents win conditions in fights, skirmishes, or the entire game as a whole, and poor objective and fight setup/positioning.
But damn are the players playing well…
OMG have been quietly better than public perception but ultimately still not a good team. Icon played arguably his worst professional game in game two before bringing it back with a solid performance in game three that ended in a loss to BiliBili.
Looking at the numbers in specific categories for these teams shows a moderate gap in most economy statistics, a large gap (two orders of magnitude) at post-20 minute gold differential per minute, all in favor of LGD but a much smaller gap when it comes to objective control numbers which makes a lot of sense given LGD’s struggles in that department besides heralds. OMG actually has the edge in dragon control which has been the strongest correlating team statistics in our Esports Department LPL model this season.
LGD are extremely overrated but still a pretty good team. I think there’s a reasonable chance that they’ll punt a game away in this series so I’ll be sticking to just the moneyline and some alternate markets. OMG feel pretty clearly better than the bottom of the barrel but still struggle against stronger teams overall and this is the first truly good team they’ve faced since TOP Esports three weeks ago. I think we’ll see a bit of a wakeup call.
Odds Weighted: 25.27
Underdog Win: 25.75
“G” Projected Total: 25.84 kills
The model is suggesting a play on the over here but the total has gone under in 7 out of 10 LGD games where they were the favorites. Now most of those were earlier in the season where totals were inflated based on previous season’s numbers. Their average total in these situations was 25.5 and as high as 27.5. This is kind of a fascinating situation. LGD tend to struggle in setup which you lend to about one or two big lost fights per game give or take meaning you’d think that their kill totals are amplified but that hasn’t been the case at all. I think there’s a good chance we see the over here especially given OMG’s new more active approach to the game.
LGD game times: 32.17 / 29.61 / 34.74 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 33.48 / 34.79 / 32.41 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.82 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.08 minutes
Number is right on the money. I’d lean under but passing.
First Blood: LGD 72.22% / OMG 45%
First Tower: LGD 55.55% / OMG 35%
First Dragon: LGD 27.78% / OMG 55%
First Herald: LGD 55.55% / OMG 50%
Peanut “The First Blood Wizard” or, if you prefer, Rambo, has been absolutely nuts at getting first blood this season and we’re getting significantly better than the implied value here.
I’ll also be taking OMG first dragon at plus odds given LGD’s focus on towers and herald after first blood to get games going early.
Moneyline: LGD -323 (3.23 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)
Prop: Map 1 LGD first blood @ -147 (1.47 units)
Prop: Map 2 LGD first blood @ -147 (1.47 units)
Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ +114 (1 unit)
EDward Gaming +122 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +331) vs
Royal Never Give Up -156 (-1.5 maps @ +190)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -120 / -2.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)
RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming
EDG – Xiaoxiang, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
RNG are 3-3 straight up as favorites, 2-4 against the map spread
RNG have been swept as favorites twice (LNG, V5)
RNG are 6-8 against the kill spread as favorites
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 14 games where RNG were favored
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 14 games where RNG were favored
EDG are 0-3 straight up as underdogs, 2-1 against the map spread (vs IG, TOP, JDG)
EDG are 5-3 against the kill spread as underdogs
Time Totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 8 games where EDG were underdogs
Two-faced RNG as well as a bizarre substitution by EDG are really putting me to the test here. I absolutely loved this spot for EDG but with Xiaoxiang subbing in for Aodi who has been surprisingly good in 2020, I’m slightly less confident here.
These two teams are essentially the same level but have done so in different ways. EDG are quite a bit more consistent regardless of their lineup while RNG have had higher highs and lower lows. The biggest mismatches on the map are Xiaohu against Scout who hasn’t been his same old steady self this season and Hope against sub ADC GALA who had a bit of a hot and cold outing last time out. I’d assume Junjia and Xiaoxiang have been getting practice reps together as a duo while Aodi and Jiejie continue to build chemistry so don’t expect a poor top side of the map here.
Tough spot. Both teams have faced a very difficult schedule with only two matches each that I’d call “easy” so I think they’re both probably better than their records. I still think this is just a play on the underdog. If RNG were the dogs in this spot I’d probably take them. Given RNG’s game to game inconsistencies this season I feel better about the +1.5 maps than I typically do for the dogs as well.
Underdog Win: 25.20
“G” Projected Total: 26.5 kills
Model suggests and over. While we’ve seen quite a few unders by these teams, that hasn’t been the case in more even matchups. Their totals have also been abnormally high and most of those unders occurred early in the season when we had significantly higher totals floated by the books. I like the over in this spot. The past two weeks in the LPL have had 68 games, 35 of which have gone over which is a slight shift from the 51.63% unders we’ve seen over the course of the full season. Just something to note.
RNG game times: 32.35 / 31.85 / 32.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
EDG game times: 34.49 / 37.12 / 32.33 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.42 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.32 minutes
The averages suggest that this number is pretty close but given propensity for these teams to go under their time totals as often as they do I’ll be playing the under.
First Blood: RNG 70% / EDG 55%
First Tower: RNG 55% / EDG 45%
First Dragon: RNG 40% / EDG 35%
First Herald: RNG 45% / EDG 50%
No plays here, priced appropriately.
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -250 (2.5 units)
Moneyline: EDG +122 (0.5 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +331 (0.25 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 4 – Day 5
T1 -625 (-1.5 maps @ -143) vs
Team Dynamics +413 (+1.5 maps @ +114, -1.5 @ +900)
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -116 / +8.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +118 / under -154)
T1 are 4-2 straight up as favorites, 2-4 against the map spread (swept once vs DWG)
T1 are 8-7 against the kill spread as favorites
Dynamics are 1-2 straight up as underdogs, 2-1 against the map spread (swept KT)
Dynamics are 4-3 against the kill spread as underdogs
This is a very similar spot to the Gen.G vs Dynamics match from the other day. I like this Dynamics team quite a bit but they’re pretty heavily outmanned here. The model is suggesting that there is some value in Team Dynamics but I’m not getting cute with this one. T1 sweep even with potential subs in. Don’t overthink this.
Odds Weighted: 26.25
Underdog Win: 20.36
“G” Projected Total: 23.38 kills
T1 have tended to win pretty cleanly this season but haven’t been opposed to running the score up. Dynamics have also showed some fight in their losses and will typically try to take shots at their windows back into the game like a good team does instead of just rolling over and dying. I think this total is pretty low even for the LCK.
T1 game times: 32.44 / 31.02 / 35.03 (average / in wins / in losses)
DYN game times: 32.54 / 32.51 / 32.56 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.49 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.16 minutes
Pass. Price is solid.
First Blood: T1 64.71% / DYN 58.82%
First Tower: T1 52.94% / DYN 58.82%
First Dragon: T1 70.59% / DYN 58.82%
First Herald: T1 47.06% / DYN 41.18%
As is the case with big underdogs there’s almost always value in the neutral props. The best prices available to us relative to these deltas are first tower and first dragon for Dynamics.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -143 (1.43 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first tower @ +111 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Dynamics first tower @ +111 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first dragon @ +136 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Dynamics first dragon @ +136 (1 unit)
Hanwha Life Esports +662 (+1.5 maps @ +186, -1.5 @ +910) vs
Gen.G -1250 (-1.5 maps @ -244)
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -104 / -8.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +113 / under -147)
Hanwha are a complete dumpster fire right now and with Lehends having a poor showing in the last series for the first time all year (really he’s been amazing) it’s perhaps an omen of things to come. I could easily see Viper and Lehends quitting on this team sooner rather than later and we could end up with a Jaguars defense+Blake Bortles type situation.
Gen.G are rolling and aren’t the type of team to clown around in situations like this. Again, don’t get cute.
Odds Weighted: 25.03
Underdog Win: 25.25
“G” Projected Total: 23.96 kills
Again an over even though I’m not sure how much fight Hanwha are going to put up here.
GEG game times: 31.23 / 29.81 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)
HLE game times: 32.37 / 36.73 / 31.75 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.8 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.34 minutes
I’d lean to the under but passing for now.
First Blood: GEG 64.71% / HLE 37.5 %
First Tower: GEG 70.59% / HLE 23.53%
First Dragon: GEG 58.82% / HLE 41.18%
First Herald: GEG 82.35% / HLE 37.5%
Normally I like the underdog props when the prices are this large but they’re actually fairly priced in this match so no action here.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -256 (2.56 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 5 – Day 3
Will be writing on this tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
Immortals +184 vs Team Solo Mid -244
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -111 / -6.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 13.5
Time Total: OTB
TSM are 5-2 straight up, 3-4 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill totals have gone OVER in 4 out of 7 games where TSM were favored
TSM have gone over their team total in 5 out of 7 games where they were favored
Underdogs have gone under their team total in 4 out of 7 games against TSM
Immortals are 1-3 straight up, 3-1 against the kill spread as underdogs since switching to new roster
Kill totals have gone OVER in 3 out of 4 games as underdogs with the new Immortals roster
TSM were able to keep it close against Cloud 9 for a good 20 minutes or so before they unraveled under Cloud 9’s persistant optimal decision-making. Immortals came crashing back to earth after getting obliterated by Dignitas on Friday night. After a promising start for the academy squad we finally saw some warts. Do I think they’re that bad? No, but I also didn’t think they were going to remain as good as they showed in their opening few games.
I don’t really understand why this line isn’t significantly higher. TSM look like the #2 team in the league at this current moment. This is way too much respect given to Immortals. I missed the boat on -5.5 as these odds jump up from -217 yesterday with the spread at -6.5 now I’ll just be sticking with the moneyline given the low total.
Moneyline: TSM -244 (2.44 units)
100 Thieves +629 vs Cloud 9 -1250
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -119 / -11.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 16.5
Time Total: OTB
Cloud 9 are 6-3 against the kill spread this season (avg spread: -8.94)
100T are 1-5 straight up, 2-4 against the kill spread as underdogs
Well, the numbers continue to become more and more absurd for Cloud 9. Can’t say we’re surprised. They deserve it.
I think I might be onto something with this herald/dragon trade angle as a way to get leverage against C9. For the season, C9 have a 66.6% first tower rate and a 77.8% first dragon rate which is actually obscene. Part of me thinks that there’s just no way they can continue to dominate both and that when we get these gigantic plus odds on these markets that there just has to be away to attack it but I think I’m only going to try it against the other decent teams and I don’t think 100T is one of them.
The first time these two met is was a 14-2 shellacking by C9. I’d expect something similar this time around perhaps with a little more scrapping. There’s just not a lot of actionable angles in C9 games. I do like C9 first blood @ -185 given the delta between that and their 75% season long rate. 100 Thieves are also only 22% on the season.
Prop: Cloud 9 first blood @ -185 (1.85 units)
Golden Guardians +205 vs Team Liquid -270
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
Team Liquid are 6-0 straight up but just 1-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.5)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 4 out of 6 Liquid games where they were favored
Golden Guardians are 2-3 straight up, 3-2 against the kill spread as underdogs
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 3 out of 5 games where GG were underdogs
Liquid looked pretty clean yesterday against CLG yesterday. They were in full control of this game and under no threat of losing which is a welcome departure from the wild games from last weekend.
Golden Guardians played a 44 kill bonanza with EG that was close for 30 minutes before turning wildly for GG and then they nearly threw it at the end. Just a ridiculous game and a fun watch even if the level of play wasn’t the highest. This match will warp numbers for awhile.
The last time these two teams met, Liquid defeated and ocean soul en route to a 12-6 victory in 40 minutes. Golden Guardians played the Nidalee/Jayce poke combo but Liquid were able to stabalize and GG were just unable to close out even with an ocean soul to help them against Liquid’s scaling.
The strange thing with this match is that both teams look better recently and that with a better draft I think Golden Guardians likely could have won that series. I’ve been very hot and cold on the Guardians this season but I’m going to be taking their kill spread here. Liquid have been an awful against the spread team primarily because of their focus on scaling or split pushing team compositions. They aren’t looking to run over early games or accrue big advantages. They’ve been playing a very “slow and steady wins the race” style of LOL so it makes sense that they’ve struggled to cover the spread with an average KPW of around 13 and DPW a little short of 8.
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +6.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)
Counter Logic Gaming +209 vs Evil Geniuses -278
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 13.5
Time Total: OTB
EG are 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.375)
EG have failed to cover their team total in 6 out of 8 games as favorites (avg total: 12.375)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 4 out of 8 games where EG were favored
CLG are 3-5 straight up, 4-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.875)
CLG have covered their team total in 5 out of 8 games as underdogs (avg total: 7.875)
I’m not entirely sure what’s going on with Evil Geniuses or if they just felt that they wanted to play a scrappy game yesterday but this team has been WILDLY inconsistent from game-to-game this season. Sometimes they’re the slow, controlled winner, other times the opposite. John may have been onto something in that he isn’t buying this team. They had the tools to kill an Aphelios in that game but just not enough of them to get through Lissandra AND Karma shields. With a better draft I think they win that game but you could say that about anybody. Drafting has been a big issue for EG. They don’t seem to know what they want to do and at this point in the season they better figure that out sooner rather than later.
CLG have been better than I expected but still not particularly great. We got to see Deus in his debut in the top lane against Impact yesterday. It didn’t go well. Still, I think this team is probably better than the market numbers are going to indicate but that you’ve got to pick your spots.
I feel like such a fish but I think the play here is CLG. This number is too big. Evil Geniuses have been slowly but surely working their way out of that trustworthy top tier of teams and into the clump in the middle of the table. I wouldn’t be surprised to see anything in this match. I’ll split my exposure on the kill spread and moneyline.
Kill Spread: CLG +6.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)
Moneyline: CLG +209 (0.5 units)