Saturday, August 8th Recap

 

LNG vs Dominus  (Net: -3.97 units)

eStar vs EDG (Net: -0.42 units)

TOP vs Team WE (Net: -0.29 units)

 

LPL Total: -4.68 units

 

DragonX vs Sandbox  (Net: -1.005 units)

SeolHaeOne vs DAMWON (Net: +3.92 units)

LCK Total: +2.955 units

 

Vitality vs Schalke  (Net: -1.0 units)

Origen vs SK Gaming (Net: no wagers)

Fnatic vs Excel  (Net: -1.16 units)

Misfits vs G2  (Net: -0.08 units)

MAD Lions vs Rogue (Net: +1.745 units)

 

LEC Total: -0.495 units

 

Liquid vs Immortals (Net: ?? units)

Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses  (Net: ?? units)

FlyQuest vs CLG  (Net: ?? units)

100 Thieves vs Dignitas  (Net: ?? units)

 

LCS Total: (pending) units

 

 

Daily Total Net: (pending) units

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 10 – Day 7

 

It’s been a wild one but here we are at the final day of the regular season for the 2020 LPL. I’ll be doing a longer form recap after playoffs but probably will look at some things before then and write something.

 

Rogue Warriors +242 (+1.5 maps @ -132, -1.5 @ +509) vs

Royal Never Give Up -333 (-1.5 maps @ +104)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -114 / -5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +121 / under -161)

Starting Lineups:

RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming

RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley

Trends:

RNG are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 against the map spread as favorites

RNG are 9-14 against the kill spread as favorites

RW are 3-9 straight up, 6-6 against the map spread as underdogs

RW are 3-2 straight up, 4-1 against the map spread in their past five series (two 2-0s)

RW are 12-16 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

People are going to give RNG crap for losing to BiliBili but we talked about it going into that matchup, two similar styles of teams clashing can sometimes create these really lopsided results especially if it’s two tempo-focused teams like those two. What I’m getting at is that we shouldn’t downgrade RNG a lot for a loss to BLG who have looked much better in recent weeks.

Enter Rogue Warriors, who finally appear to be coming back down to earth a bit. RW live and die by Haro in much the same way LGD live and die by Peanut. IF he gets them ahead early then you can expect potentially good things but similar to LGD, I love other early game teams against them because they look completely lost from behind unlike certain other early-game centric teams. So in some ways this is a similar matchup but I think Rogue Warriors are sort of just a slightly worse version of BLG.

Neither team really has anything but pride to play for here so anything can happen. RNG eliminated themselves from a potential playoff berth so this is the first time we’ve seen them play a truly meaningless game. There’s a chance they just mess around in this one but Rogue Warriors haven’t exactly been a stellar team since their elimination either.

This match has a high clown fiesta potential. This could get crazy. I’m ignoring sides and taking overs on kill totals although I’d lean toward RNG winning.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.18

Time-projected: 25.7

Odds-Weighted: 26.11

Underdog Win: 25.46

“G” Projected Total: 25.66 kills

Meaningless games often mean sloppy, fun for the players type games. Not always but often, even with players trying hard they tend to loosen up a bit. Take the overs.

 

RNG game times:  32.62 / 31.96 / 33.33 (average / in wins / in losses)

RW game times: 32.76 / 36.12 / 31.16 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.69 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.43 minutes

Probably under given the nature of these two but with nothing on the line who knows what we’ll see. Pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: RNG 67.57% / RW 50%

First Tower: RNG 48.65% / RW 41.18%

First Dragon: RNG 54.05% / RW 52.94%

First Herald:  RNG 40.54% / RW 52.94%

There’s value in a few of these but I haven’t the slightest clue how this is going to play out. Most of these are off the board just keep an eye out for large plus money positions.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)

 

 

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix -132 (-1.5 maps @ +226) vs

Suning Gaming +104 (+1.5 maps @ -303, -1.5 @ +253)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ +113 / +4.5 @ -147

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -118 / under -111)

Starting Lineups:

FPX – GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

Trends:

FPX are 9-4 straight up, 4-9 against the map spread as favorites

FPX are 13-15 against the kill spread as favorites

FPX have covered their team total in 16 out of 28 games as favorites

Suning are 4-4 straight up, 5-3 against the map spread as underdogs

Suning are 10-10 against the kill spread as underdogs

Suning need this win to clinch top four, FunPlus could move up past LGD to earn a higher seeding and potentially side selection. It just depends on how much these teams want to show. Suning haven’t been perfect but they’ve looked far better than FPX who still appear to be struggling with who they are in this modern LOL. Motivations aside, my model grades Suning as the #7 team (they’ve spent much of the past month at #5) but FPX grade out as #11, and are a below average team by just as much as Suning is above average.

I hate to say it but FunPlus honestly don’t belong in playoffs. They get credit for getting here and I don’t think they’re a particularly bad team but they just aren’t well-suited to the modern game. Trust me, it hurts to see the defending champs struggling but there is absolutely no reason other than name brand value that they should be favored here. Both of these teams have their issues and both are pretty smart but Suning have been the better team this season and are underdogs here. Sure, it’s the final week and anything can happen but this is a pretty bad pricing. There’s also a chance neither of these teams want to reveal much and pseudo no-show for this performance in that case take the dog as well.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.665

Time-projected: 25.83

Odds-Weighted: 26.46

Underdog Win: 27.185

“G” Projected Total: 26.32 kills

Pass. Right on the money and these two still have something to play for so I wouldn’t expect too much clowning around here. In fact, I’d lean to the under, this should be a playoff environment type of game.

 

FPX game times: 31.77 / 32.24 / 31.18  (average / in wins / in losses)

SN game times: 33.09 / 32.39 / 34.08 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.43 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.53 minutes

Same as above but lean to the over.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: FPX 57.89% / SN 41.03%

First Tower: FPX 36.84% / SN 51.28%

First Dragon: FPX 63.16% / SN 41.03%

First Herald: FPX 42.11% / SN 43.59%

These are priced pretty accurately. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Suning +104 (1 unit)

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +253 (0.5 units)

 

 

 

Invictus Gaming -435 (-1.5 maps @ -112) vs

Vici Gaming +303 (+1.5 maps @ -112, -1.5 @ +612)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +104 / under -135)

Starting Lineups:

IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind

VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro

Trends:

Invictus are 9-2 straight up, 4-7 against the map spread

Invictus are 14-14 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 15 out of 28 games where IG were favored

Vici are 2-6 straight up, 4-4 against the map spread as underdogs

Vici are 11-9 against the kill spread as underdogs

Favorites have covered their team total in 9 out of 20 appearances against Vici

 

Oh Vici…. this team is just the heartbreak hotel.

Above are the gold differentials at 10, 15, and 20 in maps 1-3 against Suning in their last match. How many games have they had just ridiculous advantages and found a way to lose? It’s honestly sad because this team grades out as a playoff caliber team (currently they’re #3 in the objective/economy model not including this morning’s games which might drop them to #4). It’s part of why I’ve been so bullish on them this season.  This team has done some of this to themselves but they’re also quite a bit snake-bitten. A lot of the time it’s just been a steal or one mistake in a longer game that’s done it too. It’s not like an LGD who consistently blunder in setups. Just a damn shame.

Invictus have nothing to play for here. Even if they lose 0-2 and Suning win 2-0 they’re still ahead on game differential and are locked into the #3 seed. Invictus look good (grade out #2). They’re steadily improving and while they’ve dropped some games they’ve also been developing an arsenal of team compositions and champions along the way that’s going to make them a formidable threat and likely and international competitor. I think Invictus are very live to win the entire Summer split.

The handicap here is how much you think Invictus care. Vici clearly are still playing it out although maybe frustration sets in who knows. A lot of the Vici players are playing for jobs next split. If you think Invictus are going 100% here then I still think Vici are actually a live underdog although Invictus have been arguably the best late game team in the LPL this season even when they were slumping. They’re also very good at staving off snowballs and buying time until they have an advantage. If you think Invictus mail this in then of course Vici are live.

I’m going to play the underdogs here. Vici aren’t this bad and Invictus have absolutely no reason to show anything unless they want to try to build draft equity by experimenting in which case it strengthens our Vici position.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.18

Time-projected: 27.93

Odds-Weighted: 28.13

Underdog Win: 22.37

“G” Projected Total: 27.74 kills

I like the over here. It projects that way anyway but especially given that Invictus don’t really have much reason to play here I could see these games getting goofy.

 

IG game times: 30.78 / 29.75 / 32.91 (average / in wins / in losses)

VG game times: 32.79 / 31.13 / 34.0 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.78 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.91 minutes

Similar to above but could see Vici snowballing hard and closing early. Pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: IG 35% / VG 50%

First Tower: IG 55% / VG 57.89%

First Dragon: IG 55% / VG 47.37%

First Herald: IG 45% / VG 63.16%

Vici first blood and first herald look good to me.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Vici Gaming +1.5 maps @ -112 (2.24 units)

Moneyline: Vici Gaming +303 (1 unit)

Spread: Vici Gaming -1.5 maps @ +612 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)

Prop: Map 1 Vici first blood @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Vici first blood @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Vici first herald @ +109 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Vici first herald @ +109 (1 unit) 

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 4

 

T1 -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -196) vs

Team Dynamics +557 (+1.5 maps @ +152, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -108 / +9.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +102 / under -133)

Trends:

T1 are 9-4 straight up, 6-7 against the map spread as favorites

T1 are 16-15 against the kill spread as favorites (6-4 in past 10 games)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 17 out of 31 games where T1 were favorites

Dynamics are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as underdogs

Dynamics are 11-13 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.2)

 

So T1 look like they’re rounding back into playoff form after a bit of a lull and Clozer has been putting on a show in his stage debut playing anything and everything masterfully. It has been against somewhat soft competition however. T1 have locked playoffs already but need one more win to secure at least #4 and they’re currently tied at 10-4 with Gen.G but have the inferior game differential. As I’ve mentioned, the LCK is a guantlet playoff meaning #4 plays #5, winner plays #3 etc. Higher seeding always had side selection advantage which is proving relevant on this blue dominated patch (and Korea as a blue dominated region). Typically it’s not a big deal but right now it is. Anyway, I digress…

Dynamics managed to take one off of the high school bullies Afreeca and probably could have taken two if executed slightly better. This team is a feisty underdog. T1 have looked better but we’ve also seen them make some questionable decisions and go into weird swings of games where they just look “off.” We can’t rely on those but I do think this kill spread is probably too big. T1 have been running up their kill scores of late but overall aren’t exactly a team that’s been dominant against the spread (only one game over even). 9.5 is a huge spread I’ll be there and doing a half stake play on the dogs out right here. I’d expect T1 to show up but Dynamics look pretty good.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.58

Time-projected: 26.51

Odds-Weighted: 29.97

Underdog Win: 22.34

“G” Projected Total: 27.35 kills

These are clearly boosted from some recent games by T1 but I do actually like the over anyway.

 

T1 game times: 32.26 / 30.89 / 35.01 (average / in wins / in losses)

DYN game times: 32.98 / 34.85 / 31.88 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.62 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.89 minutes

Pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: T1 54.545% / DYN 37.14%

First Tower: T1 51.52% / DYN 45.71%

First Dragon: T1 63.64% / DYN 54.29%

First Herald:  T1 39.39% / DYN 42.86%

Priced approrpiately. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 Dynamics +9.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 Dynamics +9.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Spread: Dynamics +1.5 maps @ +152 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Dynamics +557 (0.25 units)

Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +811 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

 

 

 

 

 

KT Rolster +303 (+1.5 maps @ -112, -1.5 @ +612) vs

Gen.G -435 (-1.5 maps @ -112)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -114 / -7.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +142 / under -185)

Trends:

Gen.G are 9-0 straight up, 7-2 against the map spread as favorites

Gen.G are 15-5 against the kill spread as favorites (12-2 in past 7 matches)

Gen.G have covered their team total in 15 out of 20 games as favorites

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 15 out of 20 games where Gen.G were favored

KT Rolster are 2-6 straight up, 4-4 against the map spread (one 2-0 sweep) as underdogs

KT Rolster are 10-9 against the kill spread as underdogs (8-4 in their past five matches)

 

KT dropped on to Hanwha and while that’s a little disheartening, I’m not really going to hold too much against any team for dropping any games in this current metagame. This team looks good and should be challenging Afreeca for that fifth and final playoff spot but it’s crunch time trailing two matches in the standings with only four left for each team.

Gen.G look unbelievably good. Sure, they lost to arguably the best team in the world right now the other day but Gen.G were competitive and are on a very similar level. They still need to clinch the #4 seed and will be battling with T1. They’re also within striking distance of DRX and DWG if they were to falter and Gen.G were to win out.

I like KT but I think Gen.G might put them out here. They’re just so consistent across the board and their read on the metagame has been pretty solid for the most part. This is one of KT’s last stands and you can expect them to throw the kitchen sink at this match but Gen.G have just been so steady that it’s tough to bet against them. They’re arguably the second best team in the world right now.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.85

Time-projected: 23.48

Odds-Weighted: 24.29

Underdog Win: 21.02

“G” Projected Total: 23.54 kills

Overs in Gen.G games.

 

Gen.G game times: 31.43 / 30.75 / 32.99 (average / in wins / in losses)

KT game times: 33.0 / 33.58 / 32.58 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.22 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.04 minutes

Pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: GEG 63.64% / KT 54.545%

First Tower: GEG 72.73% / KT 54.545%

First Dragon: GEG 66.67% / KT 69.7%

First Herald:  GEG 84.85% / KT 60.61%

I like the value on KT first dragon especially given Gen.G’s priority on focusing the herald and getting the snowball rolling.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 1 KT first dragon @ +120 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 KT first dragon @ +120 (1 unit)

 

 

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 3

 

 

MAD Lions -233 vs Schalke 04 +176

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -111 / under -130)

 

Schalke need to win this one to potentially complete the miracle run. MAD Lions need this one to potentially take the #1 seed.

I bet against them yesterday because I think the value with the other side but Schalke are playing damn good League of Legends right now and I don’t think anybody can deny that. MAD Lions lost to Rogue but I don’t think anybody would hold that against anybody in the LEC.

This could go either way. I’d lean toward the MAD Lions because Shadow is one of the few junglers that I think can match current form Gilius in the early game and without a lead I’m not entirely confident in Schalke despite the few steals they’ve managed to pull off. I think MAD are the play but I’m not laying this kind of moneyline to play them however the kill spread is actually a value at this number. Usually we see a 6.5 at this moneyline. I’ll take a half stake on that. If you believe in the narrative I don’t think it’s wrong to back Schalke here. They’ve been playing really well and you could definitely justify a position on them, I just think the pressure is going to get to them and that MAD Lions are well-equipped to handle what they’ve been succeeding with.

For as confident as both of these teams have been I have a feeling this will be a somewhat tighter, high pressure feeling game, especially for Schalke. I think there’s a very good chance this is lower scoring as both teams tread carefully. Take the under.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: MAD Lions -5.5 kills @ -118 (0.59 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

 

 

Team Vitality -114 vs Misfits -112

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -109 / -1.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -109 / under -133)

 

Both of these teams are eliminated so there’s a VERY strong chance that we see some shenanigans in this one. At split money I don’t like either side. Take the over.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -115 (2.3 units)

 

Rogue -250 vs Origen +191

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -120)

 

Origen have nothing to lose so we might see something wild here but Rogue still need to win this to lock up the #1 seed. I think Origen might try an odd pick or just play a little looser unless they’re just so crushed that their season has ended this way that they’re demoralized. Don’t rule out the chance of an Origen victory here. A team with nothing to lose can really throw off a team under pressure especialy if we see an off meta champion pick.

I’d still think Rogue take care of business here but I’m staying away from a side and just playing the over.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

 

G2 Esports -370 vs Excel Esports +270

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -102 / under -127)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -105 / +8.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -129 / under -112)

 

Excel need this game and G2 are more or less locked into their position (either #3 or #4). This could potentially influence the final playoff seed so theoretically G2 could “allow” throw this is they’d prefer to see Excel in playoffs over Schalke. G2 haven’t exactly been a team that really cares about the implications of their games even if it’s one they’re supposed to win. I think there’s a very real possibility we see some buffoonery here.

I’m not going to pretend to know who G2 thinks is a better team between Excel and Schalke but if MAD beat Schalke earlier none of that will matter. If this game ends up not mattering then you’re going to want to play the OVER for sure because this could turn into a full on circus. G2 love to have fun and show goofy picks. I don’t usually do conditional picks but IF Schalke lose or start losing, go to your book and just slam this over immediately.

 

My Picks:

(conditional) IF Schalke start losing or outright lose vs MAD, triple stake on the over kill total

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -102 (3.06 units)

 

 

Fnatic -182 vs SK Gaming +142

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -125 / +4.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -130 / under -111)

 

If Schalke lose then Fnatic clinch playoffs. Fnatic could still move up with a win to take side selection for their first match against Excel in playoffs if that’s the case so I’d expect them to still play hard in this one. SK Gaming could move up to #3 with a win and a G2 loss to Excel but are locked into #4 if G2 win. There’s a chance we see SK not want to show anything here but also that they might want to show something to draw a ban in playoffs. I’m positive they’ll take things seriously it’s just a matter of it they want to hide information or float it.

Fnatic have looked much better of late. They’re far from perfect but they look like they’ve got their confidence back and have a decent read on the metagame by my estimation. As good as SK have been I do think they’re being slightly overrated and probably aren’t quite as good as their record. The problem with Fnatic and G2 is that you always need to overpay for them due to pre-season expectations. I like Fnatic on the kill spread here. I also like the under. There’s a small chance SK goof around with a weird pick but there’s just as likely a chance they just play to not show anything.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Fnatic -4.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 9 – Day 3

 

As we’ve seen, the final days in these leagues can be really, really weird with all of the motivations all over the place. Tread with caution.

 

Counter Logic Gaming +479 vs Cloud 9 -769

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -103 / under -127)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -116 / -9.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +123 / under -164)

 

Cloud 9 can no longer catch Liquid for first but they do need this win to stave off TSM. If TSM win they’d force a tiebreaker for second. CLG need the win to secure playoffs but a loss would force a tiebreaker with Dignitas and POTENTIALLY Immortals.

Both teams should be motivated in this spot.

Cloud 9 is the play but these markets are so ridiculous that it’s just a matter of how you think this game goes down. Cloud 9 have been pushing the envelope and experiementing with different looks so if you buy into that continuing the +9.5 isn’t a bad play. The thing is, Cloud 9 are completely capable of whooping CLG even when trying different stuff. I’d also expect Cloud 9 to course correct a bit here and end on a good note going into playoffs rather than continue messing around. They didn’t look good on Friday night even though they won. They were completely oblivious to multiple teleport flanks which was concerning. I’d expect them to be dialed in for this and roll. I’m going to buy down the spread to a -6.5 and lay the juice.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -6.5 kills @ -227 (2.27 units)

 

 

100 Thieves +114 vs Evil Geniuses -145

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -123 / -4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -124 / under -107)

 

I don’t like to overreact to one game but yesterday’s loss to Dignitas showed a lot of holes in 100 Thieves fundamentals. Other than potential seeding there’s nothing really on the line in this game but I don’t think we’ll see anything crazy out of either of these teams because they’ve both been struggling lateley and might want to try to finish on a strong note heading into playoffs.

I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to 100 Thieves here but consider this more of a bet against Evil Geniuses than a full on endorsement of 100 Thieves. EG still look like they’re completely lost and just going through the motions. Nothing really excites me about this roster while 100T at least show confidence and know who they want to be. I’m going to make a play on 100T since I think this should probably be closer to even money but I could see this going either way. Split between kill spread and moneyline. 4.5 is good value on this moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: 100T +4.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)

Moneyline: 100T +114 (0.5 units)

 

 

Team Liquid -147 vs Team Solo Mid +115

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -106 / +4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -111 / under -119)

 

Liquid have clinched first place and have nothing but pride and momentum to play for here but I’d expect them to compete and treat this like a playoff match although they might not show anything. TSM could potentially steal second place away from Cloud 9 with a win to force a tiebreaker, assuming Cloud 9 beats CLG.

TSM have looked really REALLY good in their past few matches and I honestly think this should be closer to even money than it is. TSM are a great value. Both teams play a very similar style of play, minimizing mistakes, grinding teams out. A lot of times when two teams like this meet it’s a handshake on a lot of things as neither wants to make the first mistake. You end up getting longer, lower scoring games that can essentially end on one big fight. Usually these are closer to coin flips than not. I usually like the under but 20.5 is a pretty low total.

I like TSM quite a bit in this spot. They’re more likely to pull out something special they’ve prepared to secure a bye while Liquid aren’t really incentivized to show anything unless it’s something they want to “put the fear” into their opponent with for playoffs. I also just think TSM have been about the same level as Liquid in recent weeks anyway.

 My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM +115 (1 unit)

 

 

FlyQuest -345 vs Immortals +252

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -112 / +7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -104)

 

Immortals are still alive. They need to win this match and for CLG to lose to force a tiebreaker scenario. FlyQuest could potentially end up in a tiebreaker for #3 OR #2 depending on the results of Cloud 9 and TSM. They can’t fall lower than 4th.

FlyQuest are just always the same kind of team. They’re steady, consistent, and not really reliant on surprises. They don’t experiment. I don’t think they’ve got any really spicy picks prepared or anything like that so it’s not like they have any reason to not play this game stock, standard. Immortals almost took one yesterday so maybe I should be respecting them more here than I am. I think FlyQuest smash this and end on a good note but there’s a chance we see some shenanigans. FlyQuest have been a solid against the spread team going 6-3 against the kill spread as favorites with an average spread of -6.4 kills. I don’t see it happening but there is a possibility FlyQuest mail this one in so I’ll just play a half stake on the spread.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest -7.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)

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