Saturday, August 29th Recap

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix vs Invictus Gaming (Net: +1.9 units)

It was sloppy, it was very on-brand for the LPL and it was entertaining but this was not a particularly good series, especially for Invictus. FunPlus Phoenix showed up to play and looked much better than they had over the course of the second half. It looked like they had this series in the bag before a massive throw overstaying on a mid siege after chunking Puff’s Ashe out instead of picking up the dragon essentially for free. They got hard engaged on, destroyed and it turned into a baron and a big gold swing in favor of Invictus. That was all she wrote.

Invictus continue to underperform in playoffs but managed to get the win and stay alive. The “gauntlet buff” is apparently very real. While I wasn’t impressed, I haven’t been very impressed by LGD either (or all season really…) and will almost definitely be betting Invictus tomorrow once the lines come out. Imagine if they have a good series…

 

G2 Esports vs Fnatic (Net: -7.37 units)

This was an absolute slobberknocker…. I did mention that I wouldn’t be shocked to see Fnatic make this a series and they actually managed to pull it off. G2 did have a few opportunities to take this this series. Their attempted close instead of backing out that cost them a game was one of them bt these are extremely difficult decisions to make in the moment and I think it’d be ignorant not to give Fnatic some credit for recovering from some very challenging situations themselves.

This was yet another classic. It wasn’t pretty but it was one of the more entertaining series this year. Rewatch it if you didn’t.

 

TSM vs Cloud 9 (Net: -6.69 units)

I never in a million years thought I’d be saying that Parth and the TSM coaching staff had their team better prepared and drafted better than Reapered and the Cloud 9 staff but that’s what happened here. Obviously the players elevated and TSM played a tremendous series but in all of my years of watching Cloud 9 under this leadership have I ever see them with such a woefully poor read on the metagame. Absolutely no focus on Caitlyn or Ashe picks from the blue side, an addiction to an unimpressive Ezreal, flexing multiple champions voluntarily into poor matchups with many different opportunities available (Lucian into Jayce for free and opting to put Licorice on Wukong who gets dumpstered instead really sticks out).

Make no mistake, the level of play wasn’t great either but Cloud 9 seemingly made no adjustments whatsoever from their previous series. I’m not entirely sure what happened here but it’s a bit jarring to think that a team that opened the season 35-2 and completely dominated the LCS for 1.5 seasons is not going to represent them at Worlds. Cloud 9 were the only team with a potent enough early game that I think could allow an LCS team to punch up at the World Championships and with them gone I have very little hope for the LCS to do much there. I’m not saying that deserved to be there, they certainly didn’t but I do think they were the greatest hope for this league based on the skillset you’re going to need against these elite teams in other leagues. It’s a real bummer but mad props to TSM, especially Bjergsen who is just playing out of his mind right now. Hopefully they can carry this momentum, pick up some new tricks, and represent well internationally.

 

 

Daily Total: -12.16 units

 

Two pretty unexepected wins although I’m not completely shocked (besides the way C9 lost).

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Playoffs – Round Three

 

DragonX -102 (+1.5 maps @ -227, +2.5 @ -714, -1.5 @ +214, -2.5 @ +580) vs

Gen.G -125 (-1.5 maps @ +172, -2.5 @ +449, +1.5 @ -286, +2.5 @ -1000)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -323 / under +239), 4.5 maps (over +167 / under -217)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -110 / -2.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +106 / under -139)

 

The top LCK teams are all capable of beating each other so this is anyone’s series but Gen.G have been the better, more consistent team this season and didn’t have to show anything against an Afreeca team that they just outclassed top to bottom in their last series (probably because they shouldn’t have been there… thanks T1). I’m the biggest DragonX fan this side of the Pacific but Gen.G are deserving favorites here. DragonX took down both Summer regular season series 2-1.

I don’t usually like map total bets but I think there’s a very strong chance we see a slobberknocker of a series here. DragonX get extra time to prepare and side selection which adds to the likelihood of them showing strong in this series. Three out of four series between these teams has gone to a third game and they’ve been very close games the whole way. These teams are pretty evenly matched pound-for-pound and both are highly versatile.

Due to the nature of the setup for this series with DragonX being the higher seed for side selection and extra time to prepare, and the history between these teams this season I really do think this match could go either way. Gen.G have been the stronger overall team and have been much more consistent but both teams have sky high ceilings and are capable of just about anything they want to do as teams and individuals. This should be an extremely high level series and I’m looking forward to it more than any other this weekend.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.58

Time-projected: 27.39

Odds-Weighted: 26.31

Underdog Win: 25.135

“G” Projected Total: 27.09 kills

Projections shout for a heavy over play but typically the games are much more dialed in when you have two elite teams in the LCK. These teams have averaged 23.67 combined kills per game in the six games they’ve played against each other this season (18, 22, 31, 31, 24, 16).

Gen.G vs other top four teams averaged a CKPG of 20.875 this season. Significantly below their season average.

DRX vs other top four teams averaged a CKPG of 24.94 this season. Slightly above their season average.

LCK playoffs have averaged 28 kills per game but keep in mind that insanely high kill series we just saw with Gen.G styling on Afreeca with over a kill per minute by themselves over three games.

I’d lean toward the under in this series but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that this just turns into a bloodbath with both teams constantly challenging each other.

 

Gen.G game times: 31.39 / 30.54 / 33.61 (average / in wins / in losses)

DragonX game times: 32.47 / 32.29 / 32.9 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.93 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.31 minutes

These teams averaged 33.9 minutes per game in the six games they played (29.2, 30.06, 36.3, 36.48, 32.7, and 38.65. Both of these teams are tremendous at snowballing an advantage but I’d anticipate that they match each other and we get longer games here but the 34:00 total implies just that. Pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: GEG 60.465% / DRX 46.67%

First Tower: GEG 72.09% / DRX 46.67%

First Dragon: GEG 65.12% / DRX 40%

First Herald:  81.39% / DRX 40%

Gen.G have big advantage in these markets and I was hoping, given the close moneyline, that we’d get good numbers on these markets but they’re all priced accordingly. No action.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -323 (6.46 units)

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Regional Qualifier – Round Two

 

LGD Gaming +169 (+1.5 maps @ -141, +2.5 @ -500, -1.5 @ +341, -2.5 @ +846) vs

Invictus Gaming -222 (-1.5 maps @ +110, -2.5 @ +336, +1.5 @ -500, +2.5 @ -2000)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -294 / under +219), 4.5 maps (over +170 / under -222)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -128 / -5.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -119)

 

Invictus haven’t looked good at all in playoffs but as I spoiled in Saturday’s post I can’t help but think they’re going to smash this series. Imagine if Invictus finally play a decent series like they did for most of the second half of the season. They’re also arguably the best team from behind in the LPL constantly finding ways to make it difficult for the enemy team to push for the end. You’re telling me I get that against a team that’s made a name for themselves as the team that can’t close.

To me Invictus are a much more versatile team than LGD and have superior players overall (small edges to LGD in jungle and ADC). I thought the same thing the first time around and Invictus had a bizarre no-show performance in a 3-0 series, arguably the best that LGD has played all season. Invictus grade out as a significantly better team than LGD but they also graded out as such against FPX so that’s where a lot of people will have reservations about this one. Then you look at the fact that LGD 3-0’d them last week and it’s totally understandable why people are having reservations or even wanting to back LGD but one series doesn’t change my overall evaluation of these teams. Since then Invictus haven’t looked particularly good, which can be interpreted as cause for concern or reason to believe in a higher ceiling. LGD haven’t won a game since that series though after dropping six games in a row to Suning. LGD without a massive gold lead look completely lost and even with a lead IG are one of the best teams from behind in the LPL.

I find it difficult to believe that last week’s performance will be replicated again here because I think it needs to be both sides to produce a result like that. LGD have to severely overperform and Invictus would need to severely underperform. I’m saying we saw an outlier last week and while LGD deserve credit for it I wouldn’t bet on it happening again. Invictus smash.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.19

Time-projected: 28.84

Odds-Weighted: 26.28

Underdog Win: 25.41

“G” Projected Total: 27.44 kills

I went with unders the last time around stating the following

” I know these projections are high but I ABSOLUTELY LOVE the unders in this series. First, this is playoffs, and while we saw some higher kill games between Suning and V5 today, I don’t think the same will happen here. Second, LGD have a very low kill per loss of 7.5 and Invictus are more than capable of playing split push strategies in a world where many teams have struggled to do so. Third, I also think that LGD have looked rather toothless when they don’t have a substantial lead in games which I think they’ll have difficulty pulling off against Invictus. Fourth, this total is extremely high even for these two teams.”

I feel the same way now. We hit the unders all three games in the last series even in LGD wins. Notably, these are now down from the previous total of 29.5 but I still like the under.

 

IG game times: 30.37 / 29.64 / 31.76 (average / in wins / in losses)

LGD game times: 33.51 / 33.21 / 33.88 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.94 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.01 minutes

I actually like the under quite a bit but could see these taking a bit longer if LGD jump out to a lead in a few of these games so I’ll pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: IG 37.21% / LGD 50%

First Tower: IG 55.81% / LGD 60%

First Dragon: IG 53.49% / LGD 37.5%

First Herald:  IG 46.51% / LGD 45%

LGD first blood and first herald are the values here but I’ll be passing as they’re more appropriately priced this time around.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Invictus -222 (6.66 units)

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +110 (2 units)

Spread: Invictus -2.5 maps @ +336 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 28.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

 

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Losers’ Bracket – Round Three

 

 

Rogue  +130 (+1.5 maps @ -172, +2.5 @ -625, -1.5 @ +275, -2.5 @ +756) vs

MAD Lions -167 (-1.5 maps @ +135, -2.5 @ +400, +1.5 @ -385, +2.5 @ -1667)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +231), 4.5 maps (over +162 / under -208)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -118 / -2.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +118 / under -154)

 

Without looking at the numbers for this series I’d think Rogue are coming in completely written off by the public as the new Origen, a team “that can’t beat the top three teams” because of X, Y, and Z reasons. I think that’s wrong. This team is legitimately good and now that we saw Fnatic take down G2 today suddenly it looks a lot less egregious to those same people that were talking smack on both Rogue and Fnatic both.

That said, MAD are deserving favorites here but it’s a matter of by how much. I was hoping we’d get a bigger number on Rogue based on public opinion skewing against them but we’re not getting nearly as much value as I’d hoped for and I think this line is actually surprisingly accurate. I also wouldn’t rule out seeing a much different look from Rogue in this spot. With Worlds already clinched it wouldn’t surprise me to see Rogue come out with something more unorthodox for a change both as a form of limit testing and a way to completely catch MAD Lions off guard. Not that I think they need it to win this match but especially in game one it wouldn’t shock me to see a Finn Kled or something along those lines.

If I had to choose a side here it’d be MAD Lions but I think this line is just about right so I’ll be passing on a side here. Rogue are better than people think they are and they’re absolutely being underestimated here but we’re not getting enough value to make a play on them. Don’t count Rogue out.

I’m going to be taking a slightly different approach here. I like Rogue to win map one which might seem a little weird with MAD having side selection but assuming they take blue I’d assume Rogue have something spicy cooked up and with a team like them I’d expect them to be well-prepared with a set situation going into the match but for MAD to overcome over the course of the series with adjustments. I usually hate these map specific bets but I have hit on map ones at a good clip in the few situations that I’ve played them this season. Rogue have had a full week to prepare for just this match (MAD or Schalke) while MAD had to prioritize preparing for Schalke first and likely spent the majority of their time doing that. Regardless Rogue should have an excellent game plan to start this series off strong.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Moneyline: Map 1 Rogue +110 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 1 Rogue -1.5 kills @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Rogue first blood @ -119 (1.19 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -154 (1.54 units)

  

 

LCS Summer 2020

Winners’ Bracket – Round Three

 

 

Team Liquid -238 (-1.5 maps @ -109, -2.5 @ +282, +1.5 @ -556, +2.5 @ -2500) vs

FlyQuest +178 (+1.5 maps @ -118, +2.5 @ -400, -1.5 @ +377, -2.5 @ +901)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -278 / under +199), 4.5 maps (over +186 / under -244)

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -156 / under +119)

 

Both of these teams are very good, have a great read on the current metagame, and play a similar style. When you have two of these more mid and late game centric teams the matches tend to be very low scoring and more about who makes the first error. We saw a lot of these kinds of matchups at the Season 8 World Championships and they often end up being more coin-flippy than dominated by the better team on a consistent basis.

I think Liquid are deserving favorites here. They’ve grown more and more consistent with every game this season and while it isn’t sexy, they’re a damn good team. That said, I do think FlyQuest are live to take this down my only concern is a regression to the norm for WildTurtle who has been playing the best LOL of his career. He’s been completely out of character. Super disciplined, reliable, consistent. These aren’t words typically associated with him to say the least so it scares me a bit to think he could turn back into his old self in this series but maybe the pressure being off is impacting this team in a positive way.

Liquid should win this series but I do think it’ll be competitive. I’ll be taking some light shots at FlyQuest and even though I’d expect lower kill games, this kill total is extremely low for a playoff match and I’ll be playing the overs. The prop markets are fairly accurately priced to me so I’ll be staying away from those.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Total: OVER 3.5 maps @ -278 (8.34 units)

Spread: FlyQuest +1.5 maps @ -118 (1.18 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +178 (0.5 units)

Spread: FlyQuest -1.5 maps @ +377 (0.25 units)

Spread: FlyQuest -2.5 maps @ +901 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 20.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

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