Saturday, August 1st Recap
Rogue Warriors vs LNG (Net: +0.87 units)
EDward Gaming vs BiliBili (Net: +1.91 units)
Invictus vs OMG (Net: +1.0 units)
LPL Total: +3.78 units
SeolHaeOne vs Gen.G (Net: +2.0 units)
DragonX vs Afreeca (Net: +1.0 units)
LCK Total: +3.0 units
Origen vs Schalke 04 (Net: -1.595 units)
Misfits vs Excel (Net: +1.03 units)
Rogue vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.805 units)
Vitality vs MAD Lions (Net: +2.0 units)
G2 vs Fnatic (Net: -0.11 units)
LEC Total: -0.48 units
100 Thieves vs FlyQuest (Net: -2.16 units)
Golden Guardians vs Cloud 9 (Net: 0 units)
Liquid vs CLG (Net: -1.3 units)
Dignitas vs Immortals (Net: +0.25 units)
LCS Total: -3.21 units
Daily Total Net: +3.09 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 9 – Day 7
Victory Five +172 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +416) vs
JD Gaming -227 (-1.5 maps @ +147)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -108 / -4.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +105 / under -137)
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, y4, ppgod
This should be a great match! JDG have a chance to take a one series lead over Invictus for the #1 overall seed with just this and one more series remaining. They’d also give themselves a cushion against the current three and four TOP and Suning. Victory Five sit at 9-4 and still have the ability to earn a top four seed which would earn them a first round playoff bye. With EDG and Rogue Warriors left besides this match it’s very possible that we see at least 11 wins but the 12th could be the game changer.
JDG are playing at the level they finished the Spring season at. They’ve quietly (somehow) won their past ten matches after dropping two of their first three. They looked a little rusty toward the beginning in weeks three, four, and five and while they’ve had a few odd game losses, they’ve been improving more and more as the season has gone on.
The model has JDG as the #2 team behind only TOP but they’ve been gaining ground on them every match from a statistical standpoint. Victory Five have dropped a little after a few losses but still sit in the top 8 teams with very little room between them all. This is a tough matchup for Victory Five because JDG have been very good in the early game and their post-20 minute gold differential per minute ranks third in the league while V5’s is a good distance away at 7th. JDG’s strengths lineup very well with V5’s and they have this added bonus strength that is drastically better than V5’s.
Victory Five are a good team and even after teams have begun to figure out ways to make their life difficult they’ve remained competitive against the top teams in the league. I think they’re the real deal and will be a tricky out in playoffs but JDG are the play here. They’re a cut above V5 as it is and stylistically this is going to be a tough out for V5 especially because Kanavi just does what Weiwei does better than he does it for the most part.
Odds Weighted: 25.56
Underdog Win: 21.35
“G” Projected Total: 24.8 kills
I’ll pass on this the projections come out pretty close.
JDG game times: 31.69 / 32.54 / 29.53 (average / in wins / in losses)
V5 game times: 30.12 / 31.34 / 27.87 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 30.91 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.28 minutes
Given the potent early game both of these teams sport these will likely be pretty quick games unless JDG opt into a more late game centric approach. I like the under even with the juice here.
First Blood: JDG 46.875% / V5 35.29%
First Tower: JDG 43.75% / V5 55.88%
First Dragon: JDG 62.5% / V5 47.06%
First Herald: JDG 43.75% / V5 38.24%
For props I’m a fan of JDG first dragon and V5 first towers. Similar juice to all isn’t great but I do think we should hit 3 out of 4 of this and possibly all of them given the styles these teams like to play.
Moneyline: JDG -227 (4.54 units)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +147 (0.5 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -137 (1.37 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -137 (1.37 units)
Prop: Map 1 V5 first tower @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 2 V5 first tower @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 1 JDG first dragon @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: Map 2 JDG first dragon @ -116 (1.16 units)
eStar +257 (+1.5 maps @ -125, -1.5 @ +620) vs
Team WE -357 (-1.5 maps @ -102)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -114 / -6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -108)
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
EST – CJJ, Wei, Fenfen, Rat, ShiauC
So we’re getting more looks at the subs for eStar. They weren’t bad in their last outing but they were unfortunately facing a red hot JDG. Depsite the 0-2 box score, eStar were VERY competitive in this match and kept it close in the first 20-25 minutes against one of the worlds stronger early game teams at the moment. One can’t help but feel that this eStar team is just a bit snakebitten. It seems like everytime they get a lead they find that one way to lose with it. While part of me thinks that’s some degree of variance, at some point you have to look at decision making as a problem and with the two new rookies in that has been a bit of an issue.
Team WE are kind of doing the inverse of Victory Five. Similarly they’ve been figured out a bit and while that doesn’t mean they’re doomed they’re having to expand their palettes a bit and taking their lumps while doing so. While this isn’t a must win per se, Team WE would all but secure a playoff spot with a win here.
Stylistically there are two ways you could look at this. Team WE are very good at waiting for their opponents to make mistakes with a lead and eStar have had no shortage of those this season. By that logic you should love Team WE here. I still think that being ahead is way easier and the better way to be playing right now. It keeps the ball in your court. By this logic, eStar are a great value.
I’m going to take a shot on the underdogs here and go back to the eStar well yet again. While I’m aware that Team WE aren’t a good stats team and haven’t been all year, there are some pretty substantial edges in the early game for eStar and the overall ratings for both of these teams according to the model is surprisingly close. I’m confident eStar will take at least a game here. I also think there’s a chance WE meet fire with fire and just lose in an early game head-to-head. They’ve been trying to add that element to their game in preparation for playoffs to mixed success.
Underdog Win: 24.16
“G” Projected Total: 24.65 kills
How you play these totals largely depends on how you think this series plays out. If you like a Team WE win then the overs in both are the play. If you think eStar keep this competitive then it will likely be an under kills but potentially still an over in time if you think WE stall it out. I’ll be passing.
WE game times: 33.43 / 31.97 / 34.0 (average / in wins / in losses)
eStar game times: 32.29 / 31.6 / 32.74 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.86 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.47 minutes
Read above. Similar reasons. Pass.
First Blood: WE 45.71% / EST 60%
First Tower: WE 57.14% / EST 73.33%
First Dragon: WE 60% / EST 56.67%
First Herald: WE 54.29% / EST 56.67%
Love eStar first tower. Even in a losing season they’ve been one of the best teams in the world at securing that objective. Really all the props for eStar are excellent value plays here. I’m going to run tower, dragon, and blood.
Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -125 (1.25 units)
Moneyline: eStar +257 (0.5 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +620 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ -111 (1.11 units)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ -111 (1.11 units)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ +127 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ +127 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 eStar first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 eStar first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)
TOP Esports -476 (-1.5 maps @ -135) vs
Royal Never Give Up +323 (+1.5 maps @ +106, -1.5 @ +604)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -114 / +6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -119)
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming
RNG are 1-3 straight up, 4-0 against the map spread as underdogs
We have unrealistic expectations for TOP. Suning likely should have beaten them in game one and you could argue that they should have won game two. Before the TOP lost to Invictus and shortly before that V5. The thing is all of these teams are really REALLY good. I think TOP are committing a little too much to late game which is an easy enough adjustment in the draft. I’m not worried about this team. They’re still ridiculous and one of the best lineups in the world.
RNG remain two-faced as all hell… This team looks so damn good in some games and completely lost in others. What does that mean? Well their trend above makes a lot of sense. They’ve taken games off of some really good teams although most of those were earlier in the season. RNG are a really good snowballing team and that’s exactly what you want to be doing in LOL right now.
Stylistically this is a somewhat tricky matchup for TOP who have been more than content to surrender early game and play to scale recently but I also think they’ve played against similarly good snowballing teams and had success. I wouldn’t rule out that they could adjust as well with the meta shifting a bit. They’re going to have to.
This is a bit of a gut handicap but I feel like TOP are just going to smash this series. The model agrees with me but the trends do not. I wouldn’t be surprised if RNG take a game here but I think the TOP sweep is the play.
Underdog Win: 32.56
“G” Projected Total: 28.16 kills
This is a pretty high total but the over makes a lot of sense given how these teams want to play and even if adjustments are made on TOP’s end I could see this getting bloody.
TOP game times: 32.39 / 33.21 / 33.73 (average / in wins / in losses)
RNG game times: 32.44 / 32.14 / 32.76 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.41 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.97 minutes
Too close for me. Pass.
First Blood: TOP 55.17% / RNG 69.7%
First Tower: TOP 51.72% / RNG 48.48%
First Dragon: TOP 58.62% / RNG 54.545%
First Herald: TOP 62.07% / RNG 42.42%
It kinda sucks that these are priced the way they are, not much to do here. If you think this is closer than I do then RNG first blood is worth a play.
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -135 (1.35 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 7 – Day 4
DAMWON Gaming -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -455) vs
Hanwha Life Esports +1012 (+1.5 maps @ +317, -1.5 @ +1600)
Kill Total: OTB
Kill Spread: OTB
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: 32:00 (over +159 / under -213)
Arguably the best team on earth right now vs one of the worst teams in the East. Line is appropriate… if you like Cinderalla stories the +1.5 maps at +317 is hilariously high. Be my guest.
DAMWON are putting up some of these most obscene numbers I’ve literally ever seen in almost a decade of doing this. I don’t think they’re sustainable but the point is this team is ridiculously good.
Gold Differential per minute: +378
Gold Differential at 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: +1063 / +3039 / +5621
First Tower%: 92% +….
These are silly video game numbers of the custom player you built in your franchise mode sports game.
I’m staying out of the way of this train except the elite teams.
Odds Weighted: 25.45
Underdog Win: 22.875
“G” Projected Total: 24.73 kills
With these totals OTB I’ll just leave the projection here.
DWG game times: 28.52 / 28.1 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
HLE game times: 31.52 / 35.04 / 30.67 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 30.02 minutes
Odds Weighted: 29.69 minutes
It’s probably right to just pay the juice on these unders. I just don’t see a world where DWG don’t just completely run this over… alright I talked myself into it.
First Blood: DWG 50% / HLE 38.71%
First Tower: DWG 92.31% / HLE 29.03%
First Dragon: DWG 38.46% / HLE 45.16%
First Herald: DWG 76.92% / HLE 45.16%
Most of these are OTB for me as well. HLE first dragon is probably worth a play at plus money.
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -213 (2.13 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -208 (2.08 units)
T1 -526 (-1.5 maps @ -141) vs
SANDBOX Gaming +360 (+1.5 maps @ +110, -1.5 @ +838)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -116 / +7.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -103 / under -127)
T1 came away from The Telecom War Part 2 with a win but it wasn’t pretty despite the 2-0 box score. These were two very close games for the vast majority of them. Sandbox are, if you’re bullish on them, a similarly rated team to KT Rolster but you’re getting better odds than KT did. By that logic they’re a reasonable play here but I think it’s more than that.
This is complicated. Sandbox still show a lot of issues on film that I’m not ok with despite the results they’ve been putting up. They’re going to struggle against good teams. The problem is that this price is just ridiculous for T1 who have looked very suspect of late. Their hallmark decision making in the mid and late game has been lacking and if not for some heroics by sub mid laner Clozer they could have lost both of their games against KT. The thing is Sandbox also have those issues.
I’m going to play Sandbox to take a game here but I don’t feel particularly good about it. This number is just outrageous. Close your eyes special.
Odds Weighted: 22.95
Underdog Win: 25.13
“G” Projected Total: 23.77 kills
I’m not sure how this one is going to play out. I’d lean over but this could just as easily turn into a clean T1 stomping.
T1 game times: 32.96 / 31.71 / 35.0 (average / in wins / in losses)
SB game times: 32.16 / 32.68 / 31.76 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.56 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.17 minutes
Right on the money. Pass.
First Blood: T1 55.17% / SB 40%
First Tower: T1 44.83% / SB 56.67%
First Dragon: T1 62.07% / SB 53.33%
First Herald: T1 34.48% / SB 50%
Sandbox first tower and herald are in play.
Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ +110 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Sandbox +360 (0.5 units)
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +838 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 SB first tower @ +102 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 SB first tower @ +106 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 SB first herald @ +131 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 SB first herald @ +102 (1 unit)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 3
FlyQuest -137 vs Evil Geniuses +108
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -103 / +4.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
Evil Geniuses played a competitive game against TSM yesterday showing a bit of that good old “hey we’re good… but not that good” element that seems to have plagued them this entire calendar year. Really, that’s all there is to this team right now. While they may have upgraded the team dynamic with the roster switch you’re starting to see that Huni isn’t what he used to be and that Jiizuke, depsite being put onto champions he wasn’t particularly well-suited to, was just a strong player. Goldenglue hasn’t been bad overall, I’m not saying that, but the ceiling this team has is lower and I’m not entirely sure the floor has really been raised all that much either. The bottom lane has done their job but not much else to exceed value.
FlyQuest look like they’re rounding back into form again after a rough couple of weeks in the middle of the season. They’re back to making the intelligent decisions in the mid and late game in their past couple of weeks and completely dominated a surging 100 Thieves squad yesterday.
Ultimately these are best of ones and we can’t draw too many conclusions on the results we see but I do think FlyQuest are the more consistent team by a good margin here. Even this new look EG who’s stated goal was to bring a more balanced approach still lacks a lot of consistency and FlyQuest are playing confidently and concisely right now. I’ll take the favorites.
Santorin continues to bea first blood wizard but Svenskeren isn’t too far behind him. I’ll be passing on that prop and the majority of the others here are accurately priced.
In games where FlyQuest are favorites, the kill total has gone over in 6 out of 8 cases including 6 of the past 7. While the combined kills per minute between these two teams suggest otherwise (unless we get a really long game), the OVER is the play here.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -137 (1.37 units)
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -5.5 kills @ +113 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -116 (1.74 units)
100 Thieves -159 vs Immortals +124
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -119 / +3.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
Immortals managed to pick up the win in an absolutely batty game against Dignitas who couldn’t manage to put the game away despite a massive early game lead due to a number of key mistakes that allowed Immortals way more time than they should have been able to have to scale up. 100 Thieves got completely demolished by FlyQuest.
To me this is is a stylistically poor matchup for Immortals. Dignitas jumped out to a massive lead on them yesterday and botched it because, well, they’re Dignitas. 100 Thieves won’t make the same errors and if Immortals are going to continue to cede the early game like this they’re playing with fire even in the LCS where that can be a real strategy. 100 Thieves are one of the better snowballing teams we have, even compared to the top teams. If there is one thing you can trust this iteration of the roster to do it’s close a game out with a lead.
I think 100T smash here. This line opened a few clicks higher in the -170 range for 100T implying an adjustment to the win/loss when the reality of the situation is that this is still a poor Immortals team. I’m breaking my rule of laying moneylines with bottom half LCS teams for this one. Price is nice to me. I’ll also be taking 100T first tower. They’ve had a 64.3% first tower rate vs Immortals 35.7% and even with the juice this delta is large enough for a play.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves -159 (1.59 units)
Kill Spread: 100T -5.5 kills @ +124 (0.5 units)
Prop: 100T first tower @ -164 (1.64 units)
Team Solo Mid +237 vs Cloud 9 -323
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -114 / -7.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
Cloud 9 lost another. Oh no the sky is falling… Can we cut the overreactions to a week or two of games out already? Especially in these best of one leagues where we get a miniscule sample size and by the time it begins to be relevant the good teams are locked for playoffs already. Cloud 9 are still playing the game the way you should be playing it right now. They’re still the best team in the league and I don’t think it’s close. A few losses doesn’t change that.
Team Solo Mid have quietly won four of their past five but have yet to beat Cloud 9, Liquid, or FlyQuest this season. The unique skillset and champion pool that Bjergsen brings to the table is really making drafts surprisingly difficult against TSM for a lot of teams, especially those that don’t trust themselves to play the more early game centric style of League like most of the LCS. Cloud 9 won’t have the problem.
There’s a reasonable argument for taking TSM here and it’s not about “Cloud 9 are slipping” or “they’ve been figured out” either. TSM are just pretty good. The problem I find is that, stylistically, they don’t match up well against a team like Cloud 9 and unlike Liquid who have played a similar more discplined style, TSM make far more errors than they do.
This number is too large which puts Cloud 9 side options out of range and overcosted. There are a few props you could take if TSM are your choice here. First tower at +137 is a good one given TSM’s league high 78.6% first tower rate. They’ve mostly maintain that even against the good teams as well so that’s a reasonable shot to fire. I’ll be staying away from everything in this game.
Golden Guardians -233 vs CLG +177
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -125 / +6.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
Really great win out of Golden Guardians yesterday who have now won four of their past five and five of their past seven. Damonte and Closer have really made things easy for FBI in a lot of these games and they’re playing at a very high level right now. The energy on this team is infectious. CLG have looked terrible of late. After dropping back-to-back games against Immortals and Dignitas, they had to face 100T, TSM, and Liquid in a row. Not exactly an easy schedule. They looked decent in their match against Team Liquid yesterday and if not for some shenanigans late would have covered the kill spread. Keep in mind that CLG aren’t mathematically eliminated so they should be playing hard here. Golden Guardians secured a playoff berth but will still be playing to potentially get into the winners bracket.
For as good as Golden Guardians look I can’t help but think this line is just too rich. Earlier in the week this was -189/+139. Do you mean to tell me that a loss, in which CLG were competitive by the way, and a Golden Guardians win, albeit against Cloud 9, move the needle almost 40 points? No way. I don’t think CLG win this match but I do think now that the moneyline has upped the prop markets that this is a good opportunity to strike there.
Golden Guardians have a 14.86 kill per win and 8.14 death per win average. CLG have a 7.67 kill per loss and 15.67 death per loss. This spread is right in that range. I also like CLG to take first tower. While CLG have been pretty poor at this over the course of the season (<28.6%), Golden Guardians haven’t been good either (<35.7%). Juicy plus money on what could be a trade? I’ll take that.
Kill Spread (alt): CLG +7.5 kills @ -139 (1.39 units)
Moneyline: CLG +177 (0.5 units)
Prop: CLG first tower @ +127 (1 unit)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)