Saturday, August 15th Recap
Suning vs Victory Five (Net: +2.247 units)
First of all, credit to Suning for playing an absolutely incredible series here. Game four in particular was ridiculously impressive to me. The pace of that game was world class and they had the right answer at every turn. I think Mole had a pretty bad series, maybe his worst this season but SofM just went completely berserk in this series. Everything that happened on the Suning map was under his influence in some way or another. Creating pressure, drawing summoner spells, leveraging top vs bottom side, individual outplays… it was just a master class and it speaks to his improvement this season. SofM has always been a good but not great jungler but during the the offseason and most of this season he’s elevated himself and maintained a top five or ten Korean solo queue ladder position and while that’s not always the best indicator of success it has historically been a good test for how an individual is performing. SofM has been out of his mind this season and he’s in the running for league MVP for me.
Victory Five didn’t even play that badly in this series except for Mole and Weiwei who just ran into the SofM train today. Also the side selection advantage ended up being a pretty big factor in this series along with buffs to Huanfeng’s champion pool (an angle I didn’t give enough credence to in yesterday’s post). Suning were just incredible. I still think Victory Five have a very real chance at representing China at Worlds this year. They’ll have a good chance to make it through the Regional Qualifier where they need to finish in the top two. They probably won’t be a high seed in that tournament but I do think they’re better than almost everyone besides the elite three including Suning but we’ll see how side choice and whatnot goes. If Suning make a deep run here that could prove problematic for V5.
LPL Total: +2.247 units
Dynamics vs DAMWON (Net: -0.24 units)
Dynamics put up a good fight in game one but game two was an utter shellacking. DAMWON had a five figure gold lead (I think it was 11,000 or more) at 15 minutes… that’s obscene. DAMWON are getting a little overzealous and sloppy as the season wanes on but they’re just so good that it’s hard to beat them even when they give you something like they did in game one of this series. Dynamics are going to get a lot of crap for losing this badly in game two but they legitimately were hanging with DAMWON in game one so credit where it’s due, none of the bottom teams have even been able to do that.
Afreeca vs SANDBOX (Net: -3.11 units)
This was a pretty competitive series overall but Spirit’s Lillia ended up being too much in game three as it scaled into the late game. Sandbox had opportunities but just couldn’t quite get it done.
Sandbox are drafting solid compositions and while the execution is sometimes lacking they’re proving to be a solid team despite their elimination and placement in the standings. That’s the case with the LCK. The top 8, arguably 9, teams are at the very least intelligent so there are no free wins in this league. Afreeca are starting to look more and more mortal as the season goes on and while they haven’t locked up the #5 seed yet, I can’t in good conscience say that they’re going to make any noise in playoffs.
LCK Total: -3.35 units
TSM vs Dignitas (Net: ?? units)
LCS Total: ?? units
Daily Total: ??? units
LPL Summer 2020
Playoffs – Quarterfinals
Invictus Gaming -357 (-1.5 maps @ -141, -2.5 @ +234) vs
LGD Gaming +256 (+1.5 maps @ +111, +2.5 @ -312, -1.5 @ +509)
Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -238 / under +183), 4.5 maps (over +207 / under -278)
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -108 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -114 / +6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 10.5
Time Total: OTB
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
As I mentioned in my recap yesterday, LGD and WE played a very poor overall series of League of Legends. This was not high level play. I’m just going to cut right to the point here… Invictus should dominate in this series. Not only do I think they’ve been steadily improving over the course of the season but this metagame is absolutely primed for TheShy to take over any game. With buffs to his best champions and his capacity to carry from the top lane I think Langx is going to have his hands full in this one which should, in turn, open things up for the rest of the map including one of the best players on earth, Rookie. Invictus are just a better team through and through. Since mid July, Invictus haven’t graded lower than #4 in the league and have held the #2 position since the beginning of August. I think that’s deserved.
While LGD have a slight edge in the very early game, Invictus severely outclass LGD in every other rating category. This is an absolute nightmare matchup for LGD who sometimes struggle to close games out despite massive leads due to careless errors. Invictus are not only excellent individually but have been arguably the best team in the world at engineering comebacks from a deficit in 2020. Their rest of game gold differential is one of the best in the world and they’ve made some tremendous comebacks, which has become a relic of the past in modern League of Legends.
We saw a bit of a different look last series but WE are a significantly worse team than Invictus. Invictus are also better than LGD where they’re weakest. If you also consider that I think Invictus are likely to win the Summer split, they should completely dominate a mid tier LGD team in this series.
Underdog Win: 23.99
“G” Projected Total: 27.352 kills
I know these projections are high but I ABSOLUTELY LOVE the unders in this series. First, this is playoffs, and while we saw some higher kill games between Suning and V5 today, I don’t think the same will happen here. Second, LGD have a very low kill per loss of 7.5 and Invictus are more than capable of playing split push strategies in a world where many teams have struggled to do so. Third, I also think that LGD have looked rather toothless when they don’t have a substantial lead in games which I think they’ll have difficulty pulling off against Invictus. Fourth, this total is extremely high even for these two teams. I think Invictus take care of business and don’t clown around in this crucial spot. As an added bonus, IF LGD were to win some of these games I’d expect them to be on the lower kill side of things.
IG game times: 30.37 / 29.63 / 31.76 (average / in wins / in losses)
LGD game times: 33.51 / 33.21 / 33.88 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.94 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.95 minutes
I’d lean to the over here but I could just as easily see Invictus shift gears and completely run over LGD. I’ll pass as it’s currently off the board. Check back later for any plays.
First Blood: IG 37.21% / LGD 50%
First Tower: IG 55.81% / LGD 60%
First Dragon: IG 53.49% / LGD 37.5%
First Herald: IG 46.51% / LGD 45%
There’s value on the LGD props but not as much as you’d think as these are priced fairly. If you take it where you see it then LGD first blood and first herald are the plays. I’ll be passing.
Moneyline: Invictus -357 (7.14 units)
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -141 (2.82 units)
Prop: Exact Invictus 3-0 @ +240 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 28.5 @ -119 (2.38 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -102 (2.04 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 28.5 @ -120 (2.4 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 9- Day 4
Hanwha Life Esports +829 (+1.5 maps @ +247, -1.5 @ +1221) vs
Gen.G Esports -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -333)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -102 / under -127)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -102 / -9.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -116 / under -112)
Gen.G are 11-0 straight up, 7-4 against the map spread as favorites
Gen.G are 17-9 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -7.4)
Kill Totals have gone OVER 17 out of 26 games where Gen.G were favored (avg total: 21.86)
HLE are 0-13 straight up, 3-10 against the map spread as underdogs
HLE are 7-22 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +7.19)
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 15 out of 29 games where HLE were underdogs (avg total: 21.88)
The trends paint a pretty accurate picture here. While I think Hanwha have improved slightly over the course of the season and are drafting simple to execute team compositions in an effort to get anything going, they’re still severely outclassed on an individual level besides Viper and Lehends and even those two haven’t been performing up to their expected level.
While unlikely, Gen.G could conceivably catch up to DragonX for the #2 seed if they win out and DragonX loses out although with SeolHaeOne on the schedule that doesn’t look to be in the cards. More importantly, Gen.G have to fight off T1 who are tied with them in match score AND game differential. T1 have a much more challenging schedule of DAMWON and DragonX next week while Gen.G square off against Afreeca and this match against Hanwha. You should expect Gen.G to show up for this match as a clean 2-0 could help propel them to a #3 seed which would give them side selection against T1 in their presumed round two playoff match.
I think it’s possible Gen.G play this conservatively but that hasn’t really been their brand of League of Legends this season so I’d expect them to completely smash here. I normally like this higher kill spreads but Gen.G are a world class team, Hanwha are far from it, and Gen.G have something to play for and since their totals often go over it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Gen.G run the score up either. I’m keeping it simple on a Gen.G -1.5 maps play here. Don’t get too cute with kill and time totals I’d expect Gen.G to take care of business.
Underdog Win: 22.77
“G” Projected Total: 23.752 kills
As mentioned above, it’s possible we see Gen.G just take care of business cleanly but their totals have frequently run over. Projection has this total right on the money so I’ll pass.
GenG game times: 31.456 / 30.5 / 33.61 (average / in wins / in losses)
HLE game times: 31.07 / 34.65 / 30.26 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.26 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.76 minutes
Same as above.
First Blood: GEG 61.54% / HLE 42.11%
First Tower: GEG 71.79% / HLE 28.95%
First Dragon: GEG 66.67% / HLE 47.37%
First Herald: GEG 82.03% / HLE 42.11%
No action here, these are all priced appropriately.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -333 (3.33 units)
DragonX -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -500) vs
SeolHaeOne Prince +1209 (+1.5 map @ +345, -1.5 @ +1600)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: -11.5 @ -119 / +11.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 5.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +134 / under -175)
I gave some respect to Hanwha because they’re bad but at least trying. SeolHaeOne are just playing whatever they feel like at this point and simply put, they don’t have the horses to do that. Hanwha Life at least have some good players. I don’t see anybody playing at a professional level on this SeolHaeOne team right now. Don’t over think this. DragonX sometimes lose to themselves but they’d have to actually try to lose a game here.
Underdog Win: 21.39
“G” Projected Total: 27.12 kills
I mentioned in the last SeolHaeOne series that they clearly don’t give a damn anymore and are just playing whatever they feel like playing so even though I’d expect DragonX to be taking this incredibly seriously, if SP are just going to throw themselves at them over and over I’m going to love kill total overs in their last two matches.
DRX game times: 31.98 / 31.92 / 32.17 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP game times: 30.48 / 33.46 / 30.07 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.23 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.12 minutes
I’m not laying this much on the under. DragonX aren’t afraid to take their time. I’d lean over but pass.
First Blood: DRX 51.28% / SP 51.52%
First Tower: DRX 46.15 / SP 18.18%
First Dragon: DRX 43.59% / SP 51.52%
First Herald: DRX 35.9% / SP 27.27%
There’s some value on SP first blood, first dragon, and first herald but they’ve also been absolutely dreadful in these against the elite teams. I’ll pass I think SeolHaeOne get rolled here.
Spread: DRX -1.5 maps @ -500 (5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ +120 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ +140 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ +120 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ +140 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ +120 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 25.5 @ +140 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): Gen.G -1.5 maps + DRX -1.5 maps @ -179 (1.79 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Playoffs – Losers’ Bracket Round One
100 Thieves +139 (+1.5 maps @ -167, +2.5 @ -526, -1.5 @ +303) vs
Evil Geniuses -182 (-1.5 maps @ +129, -2.5 @ +363)
Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -303 / under +220), 4.5 maps (over +161 / under -208)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -114 / -3.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -130 / under +100)
EG put up a real fight to battle back from down two games to force a game five against FlyQuest. I admired this a lot, especially for a team that has looked, at times, apathetic and lost. To pull together like that against a good team is a very respectable showing and wasn’t something I expected from them. That said, one series doesn’t change my overall evaluation of this team which is that they’re highly inconsistent primarily due to a lack of identity.
100 Thieves have been similarly incosistent. At times they’ve looked like the “best of the rest” and on a similar level to the Golden Guardians, capable of piloting multiple strategies to a good but not necessarily great level. If you consider 100 Thieves losses in the second half of the season they’re all to what most would call the good teams except Dignitas. FlyQuest, Golden Guardians, Liquid, and TSM since moving to the Poome/Contractz lineup. In that time they’ve also had wins against Cloud 9 and FlyQuest.
These teams are about even in herald control rate but 100T have the edge in dragon control rate (53%/47%), baron control rate (52%/34.6%), and CS per minute (33.2 / 32.2), gold differential per minute ((+1 / -51), and overall gold per minute (1763/1719). This is primarily boosted by a number of massive wins and while I’d typically scrutinize these numbers because of it, the fact is that EG haven’t had many of these “blow up” victories.
I’m really not entirely sure why this line is priced this way. Sure, Evil Geniuses finished the regular season with one more win, had the higher seeding, and battled back against FlyQuest last series, but the regular season series was split 1-1 including a 100T win on the final day of the LCS (note: it was fairly meaningless with both of these teams locked in already). EG did not look good for the first two games in that FlyQuest series either and it wouldn’t have surprised me to see a 3-0 after that start. Maybe it just took them time to warm up but who knows.
To me this series is a 50/50 and frankly I favor 100 Thieves statistics as well as their style and confidence over EG’s lack there of. 100T also have the best individual player in the series in Ssumday and he should be enabled by a 10.16 patch that gave a boost to carry top laners. You could say the same for Huni but I’m not sure anyone would favor Huni in this matchup. 100T have also had the time to digest a best-0f-five from Evil Geniuses to help them formulate a game plan while EG have had just one off day to prepare for this match. We heard Bjergsen explain how difficult this was to do after his match yesterday.
So we have a near coin flip game, if anything slightly favoring 100 Thieves, the best player in the series on 100T, the film advantage for 100T, a statistical advantage for 100T, and generally a team I like more on film in 100T and we’re getting plus money on them. The only part of this I don’t like is that EG will have side selection which has mattered quite a bit on this patch. I think this is a pretty simple equation and you see where I’m going.
In terms of other markets on this match, I’ll be taking the over kill totals. I do think, for the most part, LCS teams tend to play toward the under but these were two of the highest combined KPM teams during the regular season and 100T in particular tended to score very high in wins. We’ll probably see both teams play a little tighter here with their season on the line but I do think 21.5 is a low total. We had a similar line yesterday with of the lowest kill teams in the league with TSM and Dignitas.
Most of the “first” prop markets are priced in line with the production from these teams so not much on the table there.
I’m also going to play half stakes on the UNDER 33:00. 100T tend to favor a more uptempo look and are quite capable of snowballing leads. The numbers suggest an over play with both teams averaging more than 33:00 per game this season but I also think the game has become slightly faster than it was for the majority of the season as we’ve shifted more toward Caitlyn and Ashe as well as carry tops and away from Aphelios and Ezreal while tempo junglers have maintained a significant power level.
Spread: 100T +1.5 maps @ -167 (3.34 units)
Moneyline: 100T +139 (1 unit)
Spread: 100T -1.5 maps @ +303 (0.5 units)
Spread: 100T -2.5 maps @ +774 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 21.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ +100 (0.5 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ +100 (0.5 units)
Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ +100 (0.5 units)