Saturday, October 10th Recap
Fnatic vs Team Solo Mid (Net: -3.79 units)
TSM went with an easy to execute Camille/Galio cannonball but with a cheeky early dragon barely under the nose of Spica who waited too long to make a bottom lane gank happen. There were a few really awkward early game skirmishes and Fnatic got ahead. TSM actually maneuvered really well to pick up the third drake, pressed Fnatic out of river but Selfmade hoped over all and got the smite steal to secure soul point. I’m not sure what Biofrost was doing in this fight waiting on this blast cone for 30 seconds either instead of helping to zone. From there they just wait for fourth drake and game was over. Credit to Fnatic here who didn’t really give TSM any windows with their wombo combo.
LGD Gaming vs Gen.G (Net: -2.13 units)
Well… that was an absolute clown fiesta. I don’t know if it’s just the solo queue or scrim environment or what but Gen.G went from one of the most ruthlessly efficient teams on earth that would every so often play with their food to an absolutely sloppy team during the time off. This game was in the bag and it was looking like all of our under bets were going to cash and they just started a series of chain reaction arrogant punts that threw this game into chaos. Gen.G nearly lost this game after opening up a massive lead in all-in blitz the nexus play by LGD but they thwarted it and managed to pull this back.
This was just the first of a series of wild games today that went completely haywire and most of them for no reason other than negligence on the part of the team with the lead. We had a rough day from it so these were extremely tilting to watch unfold.
TSM vs Gen.G (Net: no wagers)
TSM had an incredible start to this game almost to the point where, if Gen.G didn’t have the obscene scaling that they did, I would have called it over. Where was this team the whole tournament? Obviously picking up Lucian in draft helps but damn TSM! People are criticizing the “1v9 sleep” play and the baron throw but the truth of the matter is that TSM played a really good one here and it’s somewhat tragic, and unfortunately following the narratives about NA, that they didn’t pick up this win. I could break all these plays down and the decisions but I’ll keep it simple.
The 1v9 sleep only Bjergsen had cooldowns, he could have went for something there and killed the backline before they woke up. Nobody else had the ability to get over there in time to make anything happen and they would have opened themselves up to a potentially game ending Orianna ult if they dog piled. I would like to have been a fly on the wall to hear the comms though because that likely played a part as well. As for the dragon with Biofrost just chillin’? I don’t have an answer there it was just bad and I don’t know what his thought process was. The baron I liked the turn off of it a lot. If you just sit in the pit and try to burn the baron down Bdd lands a 4 or 5 man Orianna ult and you’re just done. Game over. It did look like some kind of weird split call though so again, I’d like to be a fly on the wall to hear the thought processes going on.
Disappointing that we didn’t get to see this TSM for all of this group stage but I’ll take this time to remind everyone that these are people. Just because they make good money doesn’t entitle you to lob bullshit at them. Grow up. I don’t think we have a lot of those types here but I just thought I’d mention it because some of the things people say to these players after losses is horrifying. Criticism is fine, hatred is not.
Fnatic vs LGD Gaming (Net: -1.0 units)
Fnatic have looked really REALLY good this tournament and they completely blew LGD out of the water here. Selfmade and Hylissang took over this game to such a ridiculous degree it wasn’t even funny. This looked like a solo queue stomping with two challenger smurfs in it. This team is frustrating in that sense. You see performances like this and wonder why they can’t string games like this together and there isn’t usually a good reason for it, although as we’ll see with Gen.G later, I think a lot of teams just didn’t attack Fnatic in the draft in the correct way. Fnatic look great and they’re going to be live to beat some teams in best-of-fives although they’ll be up against it with the #2 seed.
LGD Gaming vs TSM (Net: -1.87 units)
This was essentially a fan service game with both teams eliminated going into it. Bjergsen blind picked Zilean and we ended up getting a game that TSM managed to keep competitive and make some nice plays but were simply too far behind to do anything in.
Fnatic vs Gen.G (Net: +2.0 units)
An absolutely explosive start to this one which was one of the faster paced games in the entire tournament. Fnatic got a little exposed in this draft. They gave Gen.G Lucian, Nidalee, and Renekton and tried the Malphite counter but as expected, Nemesis off of Orianna or Lucian isn’t the same level of player and the Lulu pick simply can’t hang against something like Lucian. I understood the thought process but these kinds of drafts were where the concerns I’ve had regarding Fnatic come from. When they don’t get their bread and butter that don’t look the same…. and why are you picking Lulu with Graves/Senna anyway? They don’t benefit from attack speed from the Ardent Censor. Weird.
Futures/Hedges: +1.5 units
Total Net: -5.29 units
Dogs had a good today today despite Fnatic being the only winner. The underdog covered the kill spread in four out of six games, three of which involved the favorite on red side.
This group stage has been an absolute nightmare. So many situations where I’ve had the right read and the favorite just throws for seemingly no reason whatsoever in every group. This hasn’t been a case of “chippy underdogs” or “the gap closing” or any of that it’s simply been poor play from most of the favorites in a lot of situations. To make matters worse, the underdogs that I have called correctly have found miraculous ways to somehow not cover even in borderline impossible to lose games. A lot of correct reads, a lot of bad beats. It happens. Onto the next one.
Futures Outlook and Plan
With the first round robin done we have a clearer picture of how this may play out in relation to our futures wagers allowing us to set up hedge situations. Below are the liabilities I have in Group D specifically for group betting or group related wagers.
DragonX to win Group D @ +240 (1 unit)
- If we end up in a situation where it’s winner takes first for the final game of the day of TOP/DRX I’ll probably see what I can get for a price on TOP. If it’s worth a hedge and if DRX look good tomorrow or TOP look shaky I’ll probably just let it ride.
My handicap and selections of the games below is without consideration for my futures wagers which will be updated above. They’re “pure” handicaps for those that didn’t get involved in futures. They will still count in my spreadsheet totals.
Main Event – Group Stage
The way the double round robin works is each team plays a game on each side of the map. For this reason we know based on the previous game which side teams will be on. Blue side has had a noticeable win rate in this tournament. I went back and looked through each match to see if it was primarily favorites winning on that side and that was in fact the case. TOP, DWG, G2, and Gen.G have each played two games on blue side already. The following are the teams that will be playing two blue side games in the second round robin.
(B) indicates blue side for this match
(B) FlyQuest +483 vs DragonX -714
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -108 / -9.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)
In the 9 games with a kill spread of 9.5 or greater, the favorite has only covered in four of them this tournament. TOP have done it twice, DAMWON and JDG were the others. Favorites are also 9-13 against the kill spread from red side in this tournament. Combining these two favorites on red side with a kill spread of 9.5 or greater have covered in 2 out of 5 attempts.
Now, the first time these two teams met FlyQuest kept it within about a 1500 gold range through the first 18 minutes before it blew up. For those that don’t remember this was with FlyQuest getting more or less “the nuts” FlyQuest composition of Ornn-Graves-Orianna-Ashe-Pantheon. I don’t see that happening again although Santorin should get a high leverage jungle pick now that they’re on blue side.
FlyQuest are a team capable of punishing mistakes if you’re too cocky and we’ve seen a lot of the favorites being sloppy with leads or just opting into these insane early game scenarios. FlyQuest are more than capable of keeping pace in these kinds of games as we’ve seen domestically with them starting quite a few of them.
I’m going to take the FlyQuest kill spread here for a few reasons. First, favorites have really REALLY struggled from red side in this tournament and it’s not just from the results either, most of the really bizarre games we’ve had have been with a heavy favorite on red side having to deal with a power pick from the big underdog. While I think FlyQuest are exploitable in the draft by attacking Solo, the types of champions that punish him are going to lead to some weird game states. This is going to be a common theme today. If we think teams play FlyQuest straight up then the kill spread is in play. If we think teams are going to abuse Solo with picks such as Quinn or Camille or Kayle for example, then those champions contribute to a lower kill game state more focused on leveraging the map. Lower kills makes a big kill spread much better. To me this is a win-win proposition. FlyQuest are also willing to bust out some ouside the box champion picks that could throw these teams for a loop.
I like FlyQuest first blood here quite a bit. DragonX had a sub 50% first blood rate through Summer and we’re getting a nice number on this. DragonX also had just a 40% first dragon rate in Summer and we’re getting a nice plus number there as well.
Kill Spread: FlyQuest +9.5 kills @ -108 (2.16 units)
Moneyline: FlyQuest +483 (0.25 units)
Prop: FlyQuest first blood @ +123 (1 unit)
Prop: FlyQuest first dragon @ +143 (1 unit)
(B) Unicorns of Love +691 vs TOP Esports -1111
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -114 / -10.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 18.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +106 / under -139)
So the Unicorns of Love were everyone’s darling underdog for the tournament. A feisty team with an unorthodox approach to the game and weird champion pools is the perfect storm for pulling upsets against these blue chip teams. The problem we’ve seen that’s separating the elite teams from the rest of the field is that when you get these game states where they have to maintain a lead they struggle to do so against teams that know how to counterpunch. The FlyQuest game is a perfect example. There is absolutely no way UoL should lose that game with the superior scaling composition they had. We’ve seen Ornn+Senna+Orianna exactly terrorizing in the late game all tournament including a few matches today. If the game is remotely close through the mid game you just win and they even had a Graves vs Volibear jungle matchup to outpace with in that game.
UoL have had some time to cook up some new spicy picks for week two but I sort of think we’ve seen most of their tricks at this point. You have to ask yourself if you can back a team that loses in situations like the one above. I also think that, weirdly enough, red side is better for this specific team with their bizarre counterpicks and such. That was against FlyQuest mind you not one of these elite Eastern teams. 10.5 is a large kill spread and TOP haven’t been the best at covering those over the course of the calendar year but they have done so twice already in this tournament.
I’m not laying the kill spread but I am going to play the alternate markets here. TOP should stomp this game. Red side heavy favorites have not worked out well but I think the talent gap both individually and as a team in this game is simply too large for UOL to overcome. I think the first game was an anomaly compared to what we’d see in most games between these two teams.
I’ll be playing the under towers and kills in this one. I don’t see TOP opting into any of this non-sense that we’ve seen a lot of the other favorites doing. I actually like the kill total under here as well but I’m going to choose to stick to just these alternate markets.
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers destroyed @ -238 (2.38 units)
Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -161 (1.61 units)
Unicorns of Love +397 vs (B) DragonX -526
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -108 / -9.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +128 / under -167)
Similar to the above handicap. DragonX are slightly more likely to be cheesed out than I think TOP are but they themselves are connoisseurs of the stinky limburger at times so maybe they just have a good read on this team. This spread is too large to lay given the range of outcomes in this one but I like the same props for this game. Expect some weird picks in this one with Unicorns on red side again.
Same as above. Playing this through these alternate markets.
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers destroyed @ -217 (2.17 units)
Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -152 (1.52 units)
FlyQuest +682 vs (B) TOP Esports -1111
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -110 / -11.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 18.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Similar to the first game of the day. Yea this slate is really chalky I know…
FlyQuest are more than capable of keeping these games within striking distance and they actually had a great start to their first game against TOP on day one of the main event. TOP get blue side this time around but I could see this being one of those quiet, clinical wins with a low score. I mentioned earlier about how the optimal way to attack FlyQuest lends to lower total games and the more vanilla approach to just play better 5v5 than they do opts to closer games that make this kill spread more than reasonable to cover. I also like the over 6.5 team total for FlyQuest here for similar reasons.
Similar to DragonX, TOP had a sub 50% first blood rate in Summer but they did have a 56%+ first dragon rate unlike DragonX.
Kill Spread: FlyQuest +11.5 kills @ -110 (2.2 units)
Moneyline: FlyQuest +682 (0.25 units)
Team Total: FlyQuest OVER 6.5 kills @ -130 (1.3 units)
Prop: FlyQuest first blood @ +126 (1 unit)
(B) Unicorns of Love +106 vs FlyQuest -127
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -112 / -3.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -123 / under -105)
So Unicorns of Love had the mid to late game team composition that people dream about in the first outing between these two and still managed to lose to FlyQuest and a Renekton/Voli top/jungle combination with their Ornn, Graves, Orianna, Senna, Tahm Kench. I don’t exactly know how you do that especially because you had kept the game fairly even. Unicorns get blue side this time around and as I mentioned earlier I’m not sure that’s as good for them as it is for other teams at this tournament given their heavy focus on counterpicking.
If UOL are going to get a game this is probably the one but I think FlyQuest is the right side here. Jeez am I really backing FlyQuest three times tomorrow? If the numbers are right…
If both of these teams are eliminated at this point, which is highly likely, there’s a chance this game turns into an absolute bonanza. I’m going to preemptively bet on this because I think there’s a near 100% chance this is a meaningless game and the number might shoot up like we saw for some of the meaningless ones this morning. OVER the kill total and OVER tower totals.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -122 (2.44 units)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers destroyed @ +109 (1 unit)
(B) DragonX +177 vs TOP Esports -213
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -115)
We talked a lot about this one on The Gold Card Podcast this week (by the way go rate, review, and subscribe I read literally every single review good or bad on the show).
Just like the first time around this is just a value underdog play. DragonX nearly took the last game between these two with a great opening. I think TOP are a better team than DragonX but I don’t think the gap is that large as we saw and DragonX get blue side this time around to get a premium pick for Chovy or Pyosik. Similar number, better situation, value dog as it is. I love this spot for DragonX.
I could see this game snowballing pretty hard regardless of the winner. I like the under on the time total.
Kill Spread: DragonX +6.5 kills @ -110 (2.2 units)
Moneyline: DragonX +177 (2 units)
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -115 (1.15 units)
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)