Friday, September 25th Recap
MAD Lions vs INTZ Esports (Net: -0.57 units)
I disagree with a lot of people on this draft. I thought MAD Won this draft very hard but that the onus of execution was in their hands. You had three excellent lanes for Evelynn to gank. For what it’s worth I actually liked the draft response by INTZ to basically also play an ADC mid with the Tristana and Gragas jungle to match the damage profile and make the late game a little more sturdy.
Typically in these wild, chaotic kinds of games Evelynn thrives but it felt as though MAD were forcing just a bit too hard in a lot of these situations. I also think MAD were not executing on an individual level to the best of their capabilities. A lot of missed CS, weird lane positioning, “auto-piloting” early on seemingly without contemplating what INTZ could be doing. I think it’s safe to say that maybe some first stage game jitters set in. You have to remember that the favorites have way more pressure on them in these kinds of spots to “not blow it.” and MAD haven’t played a stage game in half a year. Not making excuses but this is a very young team and I think people forget that. This game got wild I wouldn’t chalk it up to anything too much. I’d expect MAD to bounce back. INTZ looked better than I thought they would but with how many errors MAD were making it’s tough to decipher how this would have looked in “normal” circumstances.
PSG Talon vs Rainbow7 (Net: +3.095 units)
R7 draft a very simple, heavy CC engage composition with Morde, Hecarim, Zoe, Ashe, Leona. Very simple to execute. See champ kill champ. I’m not going to lie, when I saw this draft it reminded me a lot of the Kabum! upset against Alliance years back. Sometimes as the underdog you just pick these simple comps and force the enemy to actually outplay you. Well, in this case Talon did. Uniboy and Kongyue with their patented carry jungle+supportive/tank mid combos sort of just took over this game despite a blazing fast clear from Josedeodo’s Hecarim. The action started with a ridiculous outplay/survival by Kaiwing on Bard (seriously watch it). This game maybe could have gotten out of hand if that went south although the team was there for the cleanup regardless so maybe not.
After that bottom play things just sort of fell apart for Rainbow7 kept swinging and trying to push the tempo forcing dragon which turned into a bot skirmish but PSG came out on top despite failing to pick up the dragon. This is sort of how this game went. I appreciate that R7 kept trying to make plays happen with their play making composition but PSG just outplayed them on a lot of them. You can see that the macro isn’t quite as clean for R7 they were just forcing over and over. Might work for them moving forward but it’ll be tough against the better teams.
INTZ Esports vs Legacy Esports (Net: +1.24 units)
This was a bit of a clown fiesta. Both teams made a ton of mistakes. Maybe nerves set in as there was a lot of pretty dumb stuff in here but it was a highly entertaining one to watch. Legacy almost lost this with a 5k+ gold lead in hilariously LGD fashion but their lead ended up being too much for even a mountain soul on INTZ to bring back. Classic LGD game…. speaking of that…
LGD Gaming vs PSG Talon (Net: +3.33 units)
Whoa boy…. So it’s only one game obviously it doesn’t mean the world but I tried to tell people about Talon AND LGD. This team isn’t invincible as a matter of fact they’re very VERY flawed and we saw that yet again. They look like a below average professional team when they don’t have a big lead. If Peanut doesn’t get the ball rolling they’re not good. That’s what happened here. They got Lillia and Lucian with first picks which should just never ever happen on this patch and still managed to lose because they just didn’t utilize their priority for anything other than a few heralds that were not utilized to get a lot done.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see LGD win out but I hope it’s pretty clear now why I didn’t think there was any way this team should be -5000 to get out of this group.
MAD Lions vs Team Liquid (Net: +1.15 units)
People are really getting on MAD Lions case for this match as if they were massive favorites. Like I said in my post yesterday, both of these teams came into this match with very similar trajectories, weird playoff outings but one came in with sky high expectations and the other much lower. Why? Both of these teams are good. I’ll say this. The first pick Lee Sin was HELLA BRAZEN by Liquid but I appreciate the confidence and the comp they drafted was a “go get shit done” composition and that’s what they did. Liquid just snowballed this really hard. Tactical had an AWESOME game on Twitch. Playing him against Ashe/Leona cleanly is no easy feat but he made it look like nothing. Impact also had a great game on Mordekaiser. This was a full team victory but those stood out.
I expected Liquid to look cleaner than they did in playoffs especially given the international experience on this team but this uptempo look was good when they showed it in the LCS and it was good to see them go back to taking control of the game instead of just building a fortress until the opponent screwed up like they did in a lot of their games.
Don’t hold this one against MAD Lions. Liquid looked outstanding in this game.
Daily Total Net: +8.245 units
Great opening day and a few of our futures are looking quite good as well now. I’ll remind you all, this is just one day and one or two games. It doesn’t define these teams but we can look for certain indicators that might suggest things about current form.
Tomorrow brings us a bigger seven game slate. Let’s get to it!
Play-In Stage – Day Two
*NOTE: Unified (PSG Talon’s ADC) will not be playing tomorrow.**
Rainbow7 -115 vs V3 Esports -111
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -118)
Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -106 / +0.5 @ -128
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5 (weird)
Time Total: 34:00 (over -125 / under -104)
We’ve yet to see V3 but we did see R7 this morning who looked confident and proactive albeit a little sloppy on the macro and micro side of things. I’m not entirely sure what to expect from V3. They’re another jungle carry team just like R7 is so I’d want pieces of those two in fantasy (but I’ll leave that for the DFS experts). I’d lean to Rainbow7 but there’s not really any discernable edge to be had on a side in this game from what I can tell. If your book offers extended alternate kill spreads it might be worth looking into some sort of middle opportunity taking each team to lay like -5.5 and collecting the change but don’t go heavy as the books don’t look kindly on that kind of arbitrage.
I’ll note that different books have this priced differently. Pinnacle has it at -115 for V3 suggesting they’ve taken some money on the LJL representative since this opened pick. Other books like 5Dimes and Nitrogen have it R7 favored. Shop around if you feel strongly on one side or another.
We saw a lot of sloppy play that resulted in long games but not the overcautious play that I thought we’d see on day one. V3 are playing their first game so they might have some rust to shake off as well. Given the nature of both of these teams I actually really like the under in this match. 34 is a really REALLY high total for two teams, especially jungle-centric teams that are all about snowballing from that position. I’m honestly shocked we’re getting such a light number on the under in this case and not a hyper juiced one. Looks like a value to me.
I’m going with the OVER kill total here too. Four out of five games went WELL OVER yesterday with 32 or more kills in four out of five and the only low kill game being LGD/Talon which isn’t particularly surprising given how LGD tended to lose without leads this year. A lot of books aren’t floating totals yet but line setters Pinnacle have 25.5 @ -112 and 24.5 @ -133. I like that and a few alt overs.
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -104 (2.08 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +109 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +132 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +158 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 29.5 @ +188 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: OVER 35.5 @ +487 (0.1 units)
Papara SuperMassive -222 vs INTZ +169
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -125 / under -104)
This will be the first we see of SuperMassive but we’ve seen that INTZ want to make plays early and often both as individuals and as a team. It hasn’t always looked pretty so far but they were able to hang in there against MAD Lions and we could possibly see similar first game rust here for SuperMassive. After this morning you can expect that they’ve watched and expect this rough and tumble approach though. SuperMassive aren’t naturally that style of team but they’re more than capable of brawling with the players they have.
I think SuperMassive looked good and even though I think they might not have been the best representative for Turkey, they did improve more and more as the season went on which makes a lot of sense given that they switched up their roster. This could be a “peaking at the right time” sort of situation but it’s tough to tell.
Generally I think the TCL is a much much stronger league than the CBLOL in recent years. Both have been the strongest non-LMS (now PCS) regions internationally along with the CIS over the history of League of Legends but Brazil has really taken a dip in overall quality over the past two to three years. Turkey still has very strong fundamental play by most of its teams and a superior practice environment with many of the players playing in Europe. This team also has a boatload of international experience across it. I’d expect maybe some rust but a SuperMassive win here.
That said, I’m not laying this kind of moneyline but I do think the kill spread is worth a play.
SuperMassive tended to play a more controlling game and even though they’re more than capable of snowballing a lead so it’s tough to see how this plays out in terms of time or kill totals. We know INTZ like to rumble and that most of these games have gone WAY WAY over the total. We’ve also seen what teams look like in their first games (sloppy). The over is worth a play here I think but it is a bit of a leap of faith. Tail at your own caution.
Kill Spread: SuperMassive -5.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Unicorns of Love -370 vs V3 Esports +265
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -119 / under -110)
Unicorns of Love were the “hip” public underdog for this group going into the tournament. There’s a meme about public dogs having fleas here somewhere…
In all seriousness I do think UOL are a very good team and that their domestic domination probably means they’re more than well equipped to step up a level. I also don’t have very high hopes for V3 personally but this is simply way too big of a moneyline for a best-of-one with so many unknowns. Bugi has been an absolute maniac for V3 this year and when the jungler is your key player they can blow games wide open on their own a lot more than some other roles can. He’ll have a hard time against the veteran, internationally experienced top trio of UOL who were here last year but this is just a little too disrespectful to me not to at least take a taste of V3.
UOL are a very aggressive and arrogant team domestically. They were at Worlds last year too. I wouldn’t expect that to change although there’s a chance they tread more carefully here. V3 were a more balanced and controlled team in the vein of Liquid domestically and it’s tough to know how they’ll behave here. 26.5 is on the higher end but it’s worth a look. I’m generally a fan of overs in games where we see a team for the first time. Instead of hesitation due to nerves we frequently just see mistakes and over aggression through overcompensation.
No play on the time.
Kill Spread: V3 +7.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)
Moneyline: V3 +265 (0.5 units)
LGD Gaming -909 vs Rainbow7 +531
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -123 / +10.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +110 / under -143)
We saw yesterday how bad LGD look without a lead so you can understand my temptation to take some Rainbow7 here. This is going to be a close your eyes special. Close your nose and just dive in. I don’t think R7 looked very good yesterday but they’re picking very simple to execute compositions and Josedeodo is more than capable of getting the ball rolling early. As we’ve seen against LGD with good, mediocre, and bad opponents, if you get a lead on them they look lost. This number is too big for a best of one.
LGD have had lower total games over the course of the season in both wins and losses. I’m tempted to take this over anyway but I’ll pass.
Over at plus money is a nice play given it’s a low 31:00. I could definitely see LGD being overcautious with a lead here and attempting to methodically close (something I sincerely question in them sometimes) especially after a loss yesterday.
Kill Spread: Rainbow7 +10.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)
Moneyline: Rainbow7 +531 (0.25 units)
Time Total: OVER 31:00 @ +110 (1 unit)
Unicorns of Love -125 vs PSG Talon -101
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -107 / under -123)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -109 / +2.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -110)
I thought Talon looked outstanding considering they had all these subs so the questions about whether or not they’d gel quickly were, to some extent, answered. It is, however, just one day of games so I don’t want to jump to any wild conclusions. Going into this group I had these two teams rated similarly, slightly favoring Talon. Even though the line will likely move, I’ll probably wait to see UOL’s first game before making a play on this one if I do at all. I slightly prefer Talon but we’re not exactly getting crazy value here and I could see this going either way. I’ll pass for the time being. If you can get plus money on Talon I think that’s worth a look but I don’t see that anywhere at the moment.
The over is worth a play here especially with this iteration of Talon/AHQ. Time total is a pass.
If you can get plus money on Talon take it otherwise pass.
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -107 (1.07 units)
UPDATE: Talon +110 (B365)(1 unit)
MAD Lions -263 vs Papara SuperMassive +196
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -125 / under -106)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -119 / +6.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -133 / under +103)
As I mentioned in the recap, I wouldn’t hold the loss to Liquid against MAD Lions but they did look really jittery against INTZ in their first match. Perhaps nerves in their first stage game in many months and their first travel and experience with international competition? We’ve seen MAD Lions display a strong mental game in challenging spots before and I’d expect them to make proper adjustments for this matchup but given what we’ve seen I still think this line might be a little too rich for them. They haven’t exactly looked dominant and even though I do expect some regression to the level I expected from them, I do think this is possibly underrating SuperMassive a bit. I’ll be taking a light side of them here to start and re-evaluating as we go tomorrow and see how teams look in their first matches.
I’ll also be considering futures for these groups and potential hedge spots. Look for me in the Discord tomorrow morning for live/hedge plays. I’ll update this post with any as well but it’ll be easier checking there.
Overs in MAD Lions games.
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Moneyline: SuperMassive +196 (0.5 units)
Team Liquid -500 vs Legacy Esports +342
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -122 / +8.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Liquid looked sharp as a tack yesterday and Legacy looked a little sloppy despite getting it done. I’m not laying this kind of money on Liquid but I do think they’ll probably take care of business in this one. Not taking a shot on the competent underdog seems off given that I just justified a play on Rainbow7 and SuperMassive for similar reasons but I also think they’re playing against higher variance opponents than Liquid who are a very fundamentally sound team, something that I think goes unappreciated with them.
I’d lean under kills and over time total but no play on this here. I’d love the over time but Liquid finally went back to TF tempo and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again.