Friday, June 26th Recap


Regarding the LEC specifically;  don’t overreact to 4-5 games. These are best of ones. If you have never played this game before or have only been following it for a short period of time, a lot of weird shit can happen that makes a game get out of hand. A missed read on what a team was going to do in draft, experimenting with a new strategy, a miscommunication that we don’t get to hear. We don’t get to see a team make an immediate adjustment in game two in these leagues so we get an entire day to sit on it during the weekend and an entire week between those. It doesn’t mean a team is bad because they’ve lost a few games. It’s a long season. Fnatic and G2 are going to be there at the end. Stop freaking out about it. Don’t be results oriented.

It speaks to a larger issue I have with narratives in the best-of-one regions. Every year in the NFL (a 16 game schedule), there are teams that are much better than their record and much worse than their record. As a matter of fact, record is rarely much of an indicator at all of whether a team is good, especially early in the season. It’s the same small sample size situation here.

The broadcast has a job, the stir up interest and hype but if you’re looking at this stuff from a long-term trading perspective (be it DFS or traditional books), you can’t get caught up in all of that. We get to see two games a week from these teams and then we have a week to stew about it and over analyze everything. You don’t see the hundreds of scrim games they’re playing every single week. You don’t know if that was a 1% outcome or a 75% outcome. All you can do is evaluate the film, philosophy, and process. Even in our space the conversation was “Why not put Rekkles on a traditional carry like Aphelios instead of this cheesy Soraka?” to “Fnatic suck” immediately after a loss with a super traditional protect the carry compositions. That was in two games. It’s ridiculous.

I don’t know if it’s just the new people to the activity (which is awesome by the way don’t get me wrong) or if we just got too used to six series a day in the condensed schedule last season but we sit here and dissect these best-of-ones like it was a seven game series. Sometimes shit happens, sometimes a team is trying stuff. Don’t go crazy. I’m not saying we should excuse poor play or not be critical of it but we shouldn’t jump to extreme conclusions in two single games of League of Legends. If you want to get good at this from a gambling perspective you need to keep a level head and not get too emotional when a team loses (or wins). Drop the “this person/team sucks” attitude and let’s improve the overall quality of discourse on professional League of Legends shall we? It’s ok to have fun but when hyperbole becomes the norm then you have a problem so let’s not go in that direction.

Now that that lecture is done…

 

Rogue Warriors vs Team WE (Net:  -3.75 units)

Game one was yet another Rogue Warriors game that was won and punted away… That’s three or four now, I’ve lost count. This team is doing their best Jin Air impression,  jumping out to leads and somehow screwing it up. Brutal. At least we saw Galio/Aphelios bans vs WE so there’s that!

TOP Esports vs EDward Gaming (Net: -0.67 units)

I got burned by the TOP -1.5 I put in earlier in the week. Every so often you regret an early week selection like that the more you think about it and that was sort of the case. I should have hedged after looking into it more. I knew EDG would be competitive in this series and they were. You could argue they should have won this outright but they made a few uncharacteristic positioning mistakes in the third game that allowed TOP the opportunity to outplay a few fights and take over. BBD had an excellent debut although admittedly JackeyLove didn’t have his best series.

LPL Total: -4.37 units

 

 Afreeca vs T1 (Net: +0.25 units)

T1 were never really in danger of losing game three or anything but as expected, Afreeca were competitive in this one. This team is a perfect fit for this current metagame and I expect them to remain this way at least until things shift quite a bit. Kiin is back to smashing people which is exciting.

Dynamics vs Hanwha Life (Net: +3.0375 units)

Dynamics look great. Hanwha look… not great. Not really much else to say on this one.

 

LCK Total: +3.2875 units

 

Schalke vs Excel (Net: +0 units)

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(Schalke, circa June 2020)

Vitality vs Misfits (Net: -1.14 units)

Vitality threw away a great start in this one. It wasn’t like a super obvious, colossal throw but they had momentum and botched a few things in transition that allowed plenty of time for Dan Dan to scale up on Kayle. sKayle up… does that work? Vitality look functional but far from perfect and honestly you could say the same thing about Misfits.

G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (Net: 0, no wagers)

I thought G2 would come out and smash this but they tried another “scatter” style 1-3-1 comp with double scaling assassins in Akali and Kassadin. Instead of playing through priority mid+jungle towards the outer lanes like they’ve been doing all-season, I suspect that they thought they could bait SK Gaming into slowing down by handing over the Aphelios and then countering with even more scaling over the top but SK Gaming weren’t buying it and played fast anyway stacking three dragons and eventually leveraging it to the win despite a cheeky fight by G2 to wear them down before soul. SK Gaming are a good team.

MAD Lions vs Origen (Net: +1.01 units)

Both teams played really well in this game but MAD were just better… this team is awesome to watch. Aggressive, confident, but not lacking in situational awareness either. They’re also very creative which makes drafting against them an absolute nightmare. Don’t hold this one against Origen they played well.

Fnatic vs Rogue (Net: -1.08 units)

Rogue are on fire at the moment but this was primarily poor execution early in the game by Fnatic that snowballed into an insurmountable lead.

 

LEC Total: -1.21 units

 

 

FlyQuest vs CLG (Net: -1.22)

Missed on the cover by the hook. Bloodier game than I’d imagined but more information is good.

Team Liquid vs Cloud 9 (Net: no action)

Cloud 9 are starting to do the G2 thing where even close games never really feel close.

I thought Liquid played very well in this and were just outmuscled and outmaneuvered by Cloud 9 in a few key spots. Don’t discredit TL for their performance here.

Parlay: +1.0 units

LCS Total: -0.22 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: -2.5125 units

Not a great one but a RW cover would have been the double swing to get is back to even. Close.

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 4 – Day 6

 

Suning -588 (-1.5 maps @ -154) vs

Dominus Esports +392 (+1.5 maps @ +121, -1.5 @ +856)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Mitsuki

Trends:

Dominus are 0-4 and 0-4 against the spread this season

Dominus are 3-5 against the kill spread

 

I want to offer some great insight into this one but frankly this is a decent but overrated team in Suning vs a complete dumpster fire in Dominus. Typically in these kinds of spots where it’s a “sure” thing or when the public starts piling on to a really bad team I like to take some shots on the other side. I’m not sure if I can here. Suning have won their games against the LNG’s and Rogue Warriors of the world but they weren’t exactly decisive in three of those including a loss that Rogue Warriors threw right back to them. They’re also only a 3-3 team and if they have playoff aspirations they better take care of business here. In other words, I don’t think this will be a letdown spot. Suning aren’t coming off of an emotional win or a winning streak or anything like that.

For a +392 underdog I’d expect a better kill spread so I’ll be passing a side with a lean toward Dominus kill spreads if you can find 8.5 or better.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.19

Time-projected: 27.69

Implied-Odds: 26.47

Underdog Win: 24.55

“G” Projected Total: 26.93

This total seems really high but both of these teams have been surprisingly bloody. Projections suggest an over

Other Markets:

First Blood: SN 35.7% / DMO 40%

First Tower: SN 57.14% / DMO 28.57%

You have to lay -189 for Suning first tower but you’re only getting +138 on the Dominus first tower. Close but no cigar for me (or Graves).

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -119 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -118 (1 unit)

 

 

 eStar Gaming +232 (+1.5 maps @ -141, -1.5 @ +517) vs

FunPlus Phoenix -312 (-1.5 maps @ +111)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC

FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

Trends:

FunPlus are 2-2, 1-3 against the map spread as favorites this season

FunPlus are 3-8 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill totals have gone over in 6 out of 11 FunPlus games

eStar are 0-2, 2-0 against the map spread as underdogs

eStar are 3-3 against the kill spread as underdogs

Kill totals have gone over in 7 out of 13 eStar games

 

I’m very confident that FunPlus are going to get out of this slump. Their fundamentals haven’t gone out the window they’re just not executing well at the moment. They’ve been completely dominant for almost two years, they’re entitled to a few down weeks. Mind you, a “slumping” FunPlus is still one of the best teams in the LPL but we just have extremely high expectations for them.

The thing is eStar are one of my favorite underdogs to back especially at big numbers against good teams. This team is extremely confident, forces teams to play their game and frequently gets them outside of their comfort zones. I would have liked eStar here regardless of FunPlus’ recent performance. They’re the type of team that I like in spots like this.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 28.57

Time-projected: 28.3

Implied-Odds: 25.19

Underdog Win: 30.97

“G” Projected Total: 27.36

Yea these numbers are absolutely bonkers but it lines up. eStar play fast and aggressive and FPX aren’t afraid to get down and dirty either. I’ll be on the overs.

Other markets:

First Blood: FPX 75% / EST 53.85%

First Tower: FPX 28.57 % / EST 78.57%

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -141 (1.41 units)

Moneyline: eStar +232 (0.5 units)

Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +517 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -118 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -120 (1 unit)

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 2 – Day 4

 

The LCK will still be primarily based on film evaluation until we get more data but as it rolls in I’ll be incorporating it more and more into my analysis as we go.

 

SeolHaeOne Prince +433 (+1.5 @ +124, -1.5 @ +892) vs

Gen.G -667 (-1.5 maps @ -159)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -120 / -7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: OTB

 

SHO Prince are the worst team in the LCK although Hanwha are slowly looking like a challenger there. It’s not just that they’re the worst team, they’re a full tier or order of magnitude worse than the rest of the league.

Gen.G have faced two excellent teams (DragonX and DAMWON) and a strong KT Rolster to start the season and they went 2-1 (5-4) in those matches. This is their first easy matchup. Gen.G’s weakest player, Rascal, has been playing excellently this season so far on a number of different champions and against strong competition in the top lane (Doran, Smeb, and Nuguri). He’s going to have a field day with Ikssu. Bdd also had arguably his worst individual performance since joining Gen.G in their match win against DAMWON… think about that.

Don’t get cute here. Gen.G are going to smash this series.

Totals:

Numbers suggest an under here but there were a few outliers for APK/SP from that clown fiesta of a series with Hanwha that are inflating everything. Gen.G win clean and I’d expect them to utterly dominate here. I’ll be on the under.

Other Markets:

none for now

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -159 (1.59 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -114 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ -112 (1 unit)

 

KT Rolster +191 (+1.5 maps @ -164, -1.5 @ +458) vs

DAMWON Gaming -250 (-1.5 maps @ +128)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -127 / -5.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

 

The rollercoaster that is DAMWON Gaming meets the literal KT Rollercoaster (Rolster is short for rollercoaster). While I think KT Rolster are going to have some hiccups as they piece this new roster together, they’re already looking significantly better as Smeb gets back into the swing of things. Both of these teams are good and I’d expect them to finish near each other in the standings at the end of the season. DAMWON might be stronger right now but not by this much. DAMWON are also not a team that you can ever trust to 2-0 a series. They get over confident and take fights just for the sake of fighting which gets them in trouble against good macro teams like almost all of the LCK are.

We’re getting a team that will punt games even when they’re in dominant form against a smart team of savvy veterans that have seen it all and we’re getting almost +200 on it? I love KT in an underdog special here.

 

Totals:

DAMWON games have been incredibly bloody at over a kill per minute combined but I’d expect this to be a more competitive series like the last one we saw against Gen.G where two of the three games went under the 23.5 total. I could also see these teams getting scrappy with one another though so I’m going to pass for now although I doubt we’ll be seeing many 23.5’s as the season goes on, the average has already shrunk drastically across the league.

Other Markets:

none for now

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -164 (1.64 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +191 (0.5 units)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +458 (0.25 units)

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 3 – Day 2

 

I’ll be adding to this post more as I evaluate things and more markets become available tonight and tomorrow. Any picks I’ve made I put down here but this will be a living post through tomorrow evening.

 

Vitality +114 vs SK Gaming -145

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -122 / -4.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: OTB

Time Total: OTB

 

I don’t think you should bet SK because they’ve beaten good teams but because they’ve been playing outstanding LOL this season. Vitality are also improved but I legitimately think that people just haven’t looked at the lines yet. Why is this -145? Am I missing something?

Dominique Wilkins windmill slam SK Gaming.

Top 30 Dominique Wilkins GIFs | Find the best GIF on Gfycat

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: SK Gaming -145 (2.175 units)

 

Misfits -185 vs Excel +145

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -119 / +4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

 

This has ticked down slightly from where it opened around Misfits -196.

Excel opened the season against who I think will end up being four of the top five teams in the league by seasons end (Origen, Fnatic, MAD, Rogue). They then defeated a sharp SK Gaming squad and nearly perfect gamed Schalke 04. Patrik, Tore, and Kryze are succeeding despite a fairly large deficit in the mid lane. Luckily for teams with weaker mids, this is exactly the metagame you want that in. Shortened laning and roaming frequently as well as the specific champions that are in meta right now all contribute to fewer advantages to be gained by the true greats in lane.

Misfits have been very up and down but are treading water at 3-3. This team has been inconsistent game-to-game and still rely heavily on the combination of Febiven and Razork. The games they do well, they win, the games they don’t they lose. Special and Caedrel have struggled at times this season but do at least create plays on the map which is what they’re supposed to do.

Given the mid lane metagame and Febiven’s willingness to take Azir whenever possible, I think Excel can get enough done on the side lanes to somewhat nullify the mid lane discrepency. So far, Febiven has just wanted to park himself mid and farm and I don’t think that’s a great way to play the game right now. It’s possible he has more champions up his sleeve that we haven’t seen yet but Misfits are going to need to make that adjustment or top will be exploited and the bottom lane are going to be under tremendous pressure to outplay situations.

I think these teams are the best of the non-playoff teams by seasons end and are right next to each other in the standings. I liked Misfits potential going into the season but I don’t think the way they play is optimal right now while Excel are at least trying to do so. Both teams have one gaping hole in player quality (Special, Dan Dan) to deal with that will create inconsistencies.

This is an even matchup to me, take the under dog. I’m also going to be on the under as these teams average a combined 0.61 combined kills per game. Given the 21.5 total and projected over the league average game time as well as Misfits propensity to play scaling mid laners, I think the 20.5 it a bit high as I project this to 19.52 kills.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel +145 (1 unit)

Kill Total: UNDER 20.5 @ -116 (1 unit)

 

 

Origen -526 vs Schalke 04 +352

 

Kill Total: 19.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -110 / +8.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Gilius is starting in the jungle for Schalke in this one. He should bring some energy and is quite adept at getting action going early with his more aggressive style.

I keep a close eye on any opportunities to take a +300 or greater dog in a best-of-one but Origen look really good and they’re continuing to evolve. There’s a chance they experiment a bit too hard in this one against a cornered, “must win” Schalke but I think Origen’s macro is just too solid and their individual players too good for them to make enough big mistakes and lose this one.

These are also the two lowest combined kills teams in the league. Origen have shown some willingness to run the score up like we saw in playoffs and in interviews they don’t seem to have a lot of respect for Schalke. With Gilius starting I think this could end up being higher action than many are thinking despite the low kill per loss totals on Schalke.

I like the over and a diversified portfolio of Origen alternate kill spreads.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 19.5 @ -114 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Origen -8.5 kills @ -108 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Origen -9.5 kills @ +123 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: Origen -10.5 kills @ +156 (0.15 units)

Kill Spread: Origen -11.5 kills @ +196 (0.1 units)

 

MAD Lions -132 vs Rogue +103

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -115 / +3.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

 

It’s tough not to back a red hot Rogue at plus money but I think MAD Lions are a stylistic nightmare and that they won’t spot Rogue the lead the Fnatic did yesterday. I said on the podcast this week that I thought MAD would sweep the Rogue+Origen schedule because those teams have struggled historically against teams in the style of Fnatic, G2, and MAD Lions. I still think that’s the case. I’ll take the MAD Lions alternate kill spreads and the under, I think this will be competitive and closer looking to MAD’s win against Origen yesterday than a complete bloodbath.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -119 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: MAD Lions -3.5 kills @ -115 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: MAD Lions -4.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: MAD Lions -5.5 kills @ +131 (0.25 units)

 

G2 Esports -196 vs Fnatic +150

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ +102 / +6.5 @ -133

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

This line moved from -169/+126 after Fnatic’s loss. These totals and kill spreads have been moving all over the place too.

What a weird situation right? It doesn’t “feel” like either of these teams should be laying this much right now given their current form but I’m highly confident both of these teams will get it together and be there at the top by seasons end. In normal circumstances, G2 would be a slam dunk play at anything under -200 against anybody but we’ve lose a lot of line value here.

Since we missed the boat I’ll be cutting my stake in half as I still think G2 will win this matchup. They are still doing a lot of really subtle, intelligent things in game they’ve just been playing drafts that are extremely difficult to execute. Fnatic are not playing individually at the level I’ve come to expect from them at the time being. I’ve liked their drafts contrary to most but they just haven’t been playing as well as we’re used to.

I’m aware of the implied value of the FNC kill spread compared to the team totals.

I’m also taking the under as I think the days of the bloodbaths are over for the time being, especially in this metagame.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: G2 -6.5 kills @ +102 (1 unit)

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (1 unit)

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 3 – Day 2

 

I’ll be adding to this post more as I evaluate things and more markets become available tonight and tomorrow. Any picks I’ve made I put down here but this will be a living post through tomorrow evening.

 

100 Thieves -152 vs Counter Logic Gaming +119

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -119 / +3.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

 

I’ll be taking a shot on CLG here for a lot of the reasons I mentioned in yesterday’s post. The bottom half of the LCS can’t be trusted as favorites. They’re all wildly inconsistent. In matchups between these teams I’ll be taking the underdog until they provide enough evidence that they can be trusted as favorites. Take the value when it presents itself and hold your nose.

My Picks:

 Moneyline: CLG +119 (1 unit)

 

Team Solo Mid +160 vs Evil Geniuses -208

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -105 / -5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

This total was bet down from 22.5 and is now 20.5 and still trending downward. At this point I like some buy back on the over. I still like TSM but I won’t be piling anymore on the moneyline, just a small amount on the kill spread for value. It’s moved up a tier to +5.5 at -105 from +4.5 @ -119 yesterday and with the total shrinking as well I like some buyback in this spot.

Ultimately I think these two teams are fairly even. EG look like the better team at the moment but this number is too big for evenly matched teams in a best-of-one.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM +152 (1 unit)(late Friday)

Kill Spread: TSM +5.5 @ -105 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -109 (1 unit)

 

Team Liquid -435 vs Dignitas +300

 

Kill Total: 18.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -132 / +7.5 @ +101

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 5.5

Time Total: OTB

I’m not sure if and how this line will move if Liquid lose tonight against Cloud 9 but I’m jumping on this now just on the off chance that they win and this moves to more than -500 and we lose value on our alternate kill spreads.

If I have more on this tomorrow I’ll update this post.

UPDATE:

This moved slightly to -435 from -417 but the total was bet down from 20.5 to 18.5. I’ll take yet another buyback on the over. That total is too low even for the LCS.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Liquid -7.5 kills @ -128 (0.75 units)

Kill Spread: Liquid -8.5 kills @ +105 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: Liquid -9.5 kills @ +141 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: OVER 18.5 @ -111 (1 unit)

 

 

Golden Guardians -222 vs Immortals +169

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -106 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

(will write more on this tomorrow morning or later tonight)

Immortals fired part of their coaching staff and I wouldn’t rule out the return of Xmithie to the starting lineup which would give Immortals a much needed boost as they approach must win territory to avoid digging too deep a hole for themselves. Xmithie is starting in academy tonight but I still wouldn’t rule it out. Keep an eye on the news for this. The last playoff spot is anybody’s ball game so I doubt the players have quit on this team yet.

I like the OVER in Golden Guardians games in general so I’ll be doing that regardless and I’ll like it even more with a new look from Immortals.

UPDATE:

Immortals are starting most of their academy team in this match. This over is suddenly looking much better. While Immortals haven’t performed well in the academy league and I think Golden Guardians are a much better team, I do think the fresh blood and new energy as well as the fact that Golden Guardians probably didn’t prepare for this roster makes Immortals a live underdog, I just don’t think we’re getting a good enough price on it.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -111 (1 unit)

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