Friday, June 12th Recap
The weird season continues to get weirder. Through 16 series we’ve had 3 underdog 2-0s (DMO vs V5, WE vs IG, and LNG vs RNG). Underdogs have taken 7 out of 16 series and 8 wins against the spread.
Perhaps I don’t give enough credit to hubris as a factor or maybe it’s just that the good teams think they can beat Ornn+Aphelios… you know what let’s look into that because it feels like it’s been involved in every single one of these upset wins.
Whether you like Invictus or not, Team WE won when IG were -200 or more favorites. Morgan played Ornn both games into TheShy’s Aatrox
Rogue Warriors game one vs TOP Esports, you know, the one game where the nexus should have died and RW should have taken the victory? Ornn was piloted by Crazy and should have won.
Chenlun17 piloted it to a win this morning against RNG in game two.
The rest of the victories were favorites using it Langx vs LGD, Zoom vs Suning, New vs OMG. Crazy, Khan, Natural, and ADD were the losses.
Ok so as busted as Ornn feels, we can really only attribute four “upsets” to him (I’m counting the RW loss as a win). That’s still a lot for so early in the season.
How about Aphelios? 6 bans, 27 picks and a 15-12 record. Average damage per minute of 580 (take a look at Uzi’s career numbers…)
Light has 3 wins and 2 losses on the champ. The three wins are both games vs FPX and against RNG this morning. Jiumeng had it (and Ornn) in both games against Invictus.
So my hypothesis isn’t quite that strong of an argument yet but there’s something to it. Overall the combination of Ornn+Aphelios on the same team is 3-1 but that loss was the aforementioned RW/TOP game. I wanted to explore this not only for draft betting purposes but to show that perhaps the LPL is a little slow to adapt to how powerful this is. Only some teams are banning it. If you don’t have the ability to cleanly close a game out or snowball underneath it then you should probably ban it or learn to play around counterpicks like Kayle or even Nasus to deal with it.
RNG vs LNG (Net: -3.7 units)
I want to give RNG the benefit of the doubt here but they didn’t show up with any kind of urgency in this series. They also burned me with this toward the end of last season after starting off looking like a world class team. Wait and see. As for LNG… I still don’t know how to gauge this team. FPX and RNG both somewhat no-show’d against them and while they deserve credit for taking what was given to them, this team still hasn’t shown the ability to create on their own so I’m reticent to say “they’re good” or not yet.
FunPlus vs BiliBili (Net: +0.9854 units)
This game two got a little bit silly with l3est16 cleaning up a few overzealous dives and getting fed on Graves but FPX were mostly in full control. It’s a bit concerning to see FPX playing as sloppy and arrogantly as they have been. Part of what made them such a blue chip stock to own was that they didn’t screw around and consistently took care of business despite weird champion picks from Doinb sometimes. That hasn’t been the case so far.
I don’t know what’s going on with BiliBili but it’s weird. They’re a red flag alert for the time being until we figure out what’s going on with Meteor.
LPL Total: -2.7146 units
G2 vs MAD Lions (Net: +1.0 units)
G2 denied a triple wave to bottom lane in experience and gold and the game was essentially over from that point… this team is so damn good.
Vitality vs Schalke 04 (Net: -1.22 units)
The first in a few long, scaling games in which the superior scaling composition won. Surprise, surprise, Ornn+Azir+Ezreal+Yuumi won late. Even Aphelios was no match. Vitality look good and disciplined and perhaps this anticipation of scaling was why they went with Nji over Skeanz who prefers to make things happen early. This game is a good example of why you take underdogs in this kind of metagame.
Origen vs SK Gaming (Net: -0.01 units)
SK nearly botched this close on a few different occasions but eventually got the job done. They had the superior scaling composition with… you guessed it; Ornn, Azir, Ezreal.
Rogue vs Excel (Net: -1.0 units)
Both teams had excellent scaling in this game but Excel went tankless, attempting to abuse the Ornn with Kayle in the top lane, a strategy I like… but they gave over Ornn+Aphelios… are you all noticing the pattern yet?
Misfits vs Fnatic (Net: -0.01 units)
Fnatic pulled this one out of their ass off of a flukey baron steal by Rekkles. Credit to Fnatic for actually managing the baron buff steal correctly in a situation where they were still outscaled and had to find a way to close. Misfits should have won this game.
LEC Total: -1.24 units
100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.515 units)
This was a fairly back and forth game for awhile but eventually the Yuumi Aphelios Corki Kindred comp outscaled the Ezreal Ornn Zoe in straight up fights even with an Aatrox tank.
FlyQuest vs Cloud 9 (Net: -0.67 units)
FlyQuest had a pretty good start to this one but similar to a lot of games were eventually outmaneuvered. Like most C9 games, once they find a window that punish so hard. If you ever get a chance to look at C9 gold graphs it’s always just this absolute haymaker swing. They’re like a boxer that will knock you out on one defensive mistake.
LCS Total: +0.845 units
Daily Total Net: -3.1096 units
Bit of a rough day because of the start in the LPL followed and the spree of upsets in Europe. Missed the C9 cover by one kill. The models are starting to get more data, I’m getting a better feel for what’s what.
Ornn’s Record Today: 5-2
Sound that horn baby!
LPL Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 6
Victory Five +173 (+1.5 maps @ -179, -1.5 maps @ +441) vs
LGD Gaming -227 (-1.5 maps @ +140)
Kill Total: OTB
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -133 / -5.5 @ +103
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
Trends:
Time total UNDERS have hit in 24 out of 37 games this season but only 4 of the past 10
Kill totals have gone OVER in 4 out of 5 V5 games this season
Time totals have gone UNDER in 4 out of 5 V5 games this season
This line opened with LGD as -345 favorites and has been bet down 118 points.
I thought LGD looked pretty good once they brought in Langx for games two and three but that was a bit of a strange series with the substitutions on both sides. While I’m a bit more bearish than most on this LGD squad I do still think they’ll be in the playoff conversation, something I don’t see for the new feel good story of Summer, Victory Five.
I’ve got to give them credit. After the first series win was handed to them on a silver platter by some ridiculously poor plays from Dominus I was critical of whether or not V5 could create on their own. Against OMG they did. In some ways they’ve answered some questions but they’ve also showed a lack of direction in knowing how to close multiple times already, something you need to be able to do if you’re going to play the style they want to in a metagame like this.
Long story, short, I think it’s getting a little too cute to take Victory Five here. Sure, I get it, the underdogs have been killing it and that’s why this line has moved this far but look at who V5 have played, consider LGD’s preseason expectations (even if you’re bearish) and this has to feel like a gift. I like this new look V5 as much as the next guy but there’s no way I’m turning down a favorite that should easily win this with 118 points shaved off of the line.
I’ll be splitting my stake between the moneyline, map spread, and kill spreads to get some more value out of this since they dropped along with the moneyline.
Other Markets:
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 28.5 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 27.6 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 30.6 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case V5, 27.16 kills.
Time total unders have hit in 4 out of 5 Victory Five games this season and I don’t see that changing. They’ll either win quick or lose quick as long as teams continue to ban Ornn against them.
My Picks:
Moneyline: LGD -227 (1.135 units)
Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +140 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 LGD -5.5 kills @ +103 (0.3 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 LGD -5.5 kills @ +103 (0.3 units)
Time Total: UNDER @ ??? (??? units) waiting for these to be posted
OMG +206 (+1.5 maps @ -152, -1.5 @ +500) vs
EDward Gaming -278 (-1.5 maps @ +119)
Kill Total: OTB
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -122 / -5.5 @ -108
Time Total: OTB
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Sora
EDG – Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
Time totals have gone under in all five OMG games so far this season
Kill totals have gone over 3 out of 5 games
OMG are 1-4 against the kill spread
EDG won the first meeting 2-0 on April 15th
Note: Sora starting at support. Don’t know much about him other than he played the majority of last year on Royal’s LDL team who finished middle of the table in that league.
OMG legitimately look like the worst or second worst team along with Dominus. Their style is outdated and countered by the general approach that the entire LPL takes. Even Victory Five demolished this team in two out of three. EDG didn’t look outstanding on day one against Team WE but with more than a week to break down film and see what everyone else is doing, I trust a team that has historically been one of the few “adults in the room” so to speak in the LPL. They’re also not an arrogant team and their players don’t really have egos to cater to. They’re just solid. They don’t usually lose to inferior teams. This metagame has been pretty wild but this is another spot where I’ll be on the chalky favorite to take care of business.
Other markets:
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 23.75 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 23.8 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 24.82 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case OMG, 24.64 kills. I’m going to be on the under as long as it’s 24.5 or more.
I’ll also be taking the EDG kill spreads in a split exposure setting just like last series.
My Picks:
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +119 (1 unit)
Kill Spread: Map 1 EDG -5.5 kills @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 EDG -5.5 kills @ -122 (0.61 units)
Time Total: UNDER @ ??? (??? units)
LEC Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 2
The LEC and LCS will be less detailed and more about roster evaluation and projection until we get to see more of these teams.
I’ll be updating this post early tomorrow morning with LEC selections.
Schalke 04 -133 vs SK Gaming +105
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -110/ +3.5 @ -119
Time Total: OTB
SK Gaming looked significantly improved from last season but they still nearly botched this close a few times and they had a late game scaling situation and had Ornn+Ezreal. It’s difficult to give a lot of credit to these underdog wins when the games go late and they’ve got Ornn and a hypercarry. You more or less can’t lose in that situation without an egregious error or if they other team has a specific counter.
Guess who knows all about the Ornn gap? Schalke who lost to Vitality yesterday by handing over Ornn+Azir+Ezreal+Yuumi to Vitality. They aren’t going to make the same mistake after that.
This line also moved from -145/+114 to this new number off the back of the Schalke loss and SK win. The Ornn factor is real and teams that lost to it will not be making the same mistake again.
While I think the LEC will loosen up a little bit after day one nerves, I also think it’s too difficult to ban out all the scaling options right now. Normally I’d fade the overreaction to the low kill day (outside of G2 and Fnatic of course) with hits on the overs but the lines haven’t corrected and I think the middle of the table teams will continue playing the safer, slower paced style. I like the under.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: Schalke -3.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Rogue -106 vs Misfits -120
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -114 / +1.5 @ -115
Time Total: OTB
Misfits looked really sharp against Fnatic and probably should have won the game. Rogue beat an Excel lineup that tried to play the Kayle counter to Ornn but lacked the frontline to allow it to set up. Ornn+Aphelios won again in a shutout victory. Misfits will most certainly prove a stronger challenge in this spot.
As I mentioned in the last game, I’ll be on most of the under in non-G2/Fnatic matchups today even though I do think teams will loosen up a bit.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: Misfits -3.5 kills @ +111 (1 unit)
Kill Total: UNDER 21.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Excel +198 vs MAD Lions -263
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -112 / -6.5 @ -116
Time Total: OTB
MAD tend to be a higher kill team since they rarely see a fight they won’t take but their total is also significantly boosted in this spot. Again I’m laying chalk more or less across the board as the favorites will easily be able to point to the universal problem in losses yesterday (Ornn) and adjust accordingly (I hope).
My Picks:
Kill Spread: MAD Lions -6.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)
Fnatic -417 vs Vitality +292
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 8.5
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -112 / +8.5 @ -116
Time Total: OTB
Fnatic are a step up in class from an Schalke team that handed Vitality a superior late game scaling composition. Fnatic will push the issue. Again, chalky but look at the LEC last split with favorites dominating. I know a lot of these teams will be significantly improved but Fnatic are a much better and more versatile team than Schalke. That said, this number is a bit too big considering the style of gameplay right now. It’s pretty hard to cover these upper end kill spreads. While I don’t think Fnatic are incapable of doing it, I’m just going to stick to the under on this match.
My Picks:
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
G2 Esports -312 vs Origen +232
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -115 / under -112)
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 11.5
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -128 / +7.5 @ -102
Time Total: OTB
These two teams played a highly competitive series in the playoffs but Origen have struggled mightily to beat G2 over the past two years losing almost every single meeting between the two, regular or post season. Stylistically, G2 are just a nightmare for Origen to solve. I always compare these two to classical music vs jazz. Origen are excellent when playing within structure when things are under control and everyone is following the rules. G2 wheel-and-deal and do that better than any team arguably ever. They improvise, they’re creative, and they’re one of the few teams that have the individual players that outclass Origen as well.
It’s a G2 game and Origen hate G2 so I could see them playing this a little more aggressively but I’m still going to be taking the under here as this number is too high especially if G2 prioritize a split push or poke composition. I also think that if Origen are going to win this game it will be off of the back of a controlled early game and superior scaling meaning a slower, low-kill game.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: G2 -7.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 2
The overall theme today for LCS is that other than the top teams I feel that the middle of the table is all very close. I’ll be fairly light in most spots for this reason until we get to see more of these teams.
Evil Geniuses -345 vs Counter Logic Gaming +253
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -108 / +7.5 @ -122
Time Total: OTB
Evil Geniuses looked pretty good last night and managed to outplay an Ornn! They did have excellent scaling themselves though. I’ll be taking a shot at the underdogs here. We don’t know what CLG will look like and the current state of the game is very coin-flippy, especially if teams aren’t respecting the scaling picks. This price isn’t factoring in the full offseason that CLG have now had to build chemistry and improve and they were already a significantly better team with Pobelter in the lineup in Spring. Splitting my exposure between the kill spread and moneyline.
My Picks:
Moneyline: CLG +253 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: CLG +7.5 kills @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Team Solo Mid -106 vs Team Liquid -119
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -123)
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 9.5
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -112 / +2.5 @ -119
Time Total: OTB
We talked extensively about this one on the podcast this week but this is very much a plant your flag game. You could justify either side at this juiced up pick ’em that opened -116/-115.
Personally, I like Liquid quite a bit. Broxah vs Spica is the biggest differential on the map and it’s a massive one especially if you consider that he should be significantly improved from a weird Spring split that found him arriving late due to visa issues and jungle is so important especially when the rest of the map is fairly even. I’ll be taking the short kill spread for plus odds instead of the moneyline. It happens sometimes but rarely to wins occur without more than a kill advantage so we’ll treat this as a slightly riskier moneyline.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: Liquid -1.5 kills @ +113 (1 unit)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Immortals +156 vs FlyQuest -213
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -123)
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -119 / -6.5 @ -110
Time Total: OTB
FlyQuest had a pretty good start against Cloud 9 which is saying something but again, it’s one game. Immortals are the team most had projected to finish last and when they announced their subs a lot of people poured in against them. I’m not an automatic dismisser of substitutions. There’s probably a good reason Potluck is starting this game be it champion pool or practice performance or maybe a unique gameplan. I’ll be passing on a side for this game, I’ve got a hunch Immortals will be competitive. Don’t forget about underdogs on week one and they got to watch FlyQuest last night too. The number isn’t quite good enough for me to back them but I’ll stay out of the way.
My Picks:
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Golden Guardians -130 vs Dignitas +102
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -118 / under -114)
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -116 / +1.5 @ -116
Time Total: OTB
Two teams I’m a bit more bullish on than most. I have both of these teams roughly the same (slight edge to Dignitas) so I’ll be taking the underdog here just on principle.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: Dignitas -1.5 kills @ +116 (1 unit)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
I’ll be back with tomorrows picks later on this evening!
