Friday, July 24th Recap

 

Suning vs Victory Five (Net: -0.59 units)

This was a very competitive series.

As mentioned on yesterday’s post, TOP and Invictus laid out a solid game plan to take Victory Five off their game and while they haven’t been a linear team, they’re clearly not the same when they aren’t pushing the pace of the game. If you can slow the game down against them they’re suddenly mortal. It’s still very difficult to beat this team even if you’ve got a great plan so let’s give some credit where it’s due to Suning.

Suning have been having an underrated season and this really shouldn’t have been a surprise to anybody but it was still an impressive performance from Suning especially after a blowout game one loss. Victory Five are still very good and still one of the best teams in the league at the current optimal style but just like Team WE, they’re going to have to adapt or everyone else is going to pass them en route to the finish line.

RNG vs LGD (Net: +3.4 units)

This was somewhat funny because I had the wrong side but the complete right read on the series as a whole and in the last series I called the big underdog and ended up down. One of the weird things about high volume on prop markets is that this can happen pretty frequently.

These two teams are just so on-brand in so many ways both good and bad. RNG ended up losing game three because they just let LGD bully them around despite beating them to a lot of the objectives. If I remember correctly, the fifth dragon fight, RNG had great position in the river and just split on their retreat to allow LGD into the river for free when they were more than capable of putting up a fight to make them earn it.

Both of these teams are aided big time by the current metagame. They’re going to be able to run people over sometimes but they’ll struggle against the elite LPL teams because they’re inconsistent.

LPL Total: +1.81 units

 

 

SANDBOX vs DAMWON (Net: +2.9 units)

Afreeca vs SeolHaeOne (Net: -4.0 units)

LCK Total: -1.1 units

I’m a little bummed that SeolHaeOne couldn’t do ANYTHING at all in this series even though I expected them to lose. DAMWON put together another And1 Mixtape and Canyon scored the first jungle pentakill in LCK history.

 

SK Gaming vs Excel (Net: +1.19 units)

Vitality vs Origen (Net: -1.71 units)

G2 Esports vs Schalke 04 (Net: -2.39 units)

Misfits vs Rogue (Net: +1.5 units)

Fnatic vs MAD Lions (Net: -1.0 units)

 

LEC Total: -2.41 units

 

 

Immortals vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -1.4375 units)

FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (Net: -1.67 units)

 

LCS Total: -3.1075 units

 

 

 

 

Daily Total Net: -3.8075 units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 6

 

 

 

Vici Gaming -250 (-1.5 maps @ +135) vs

OMG +188 (+1.5 maps @ -172, -1.5 @ +458)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -108 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Starting Lineups:

Vici – Cube, Aix, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro

OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Sora

Trends:

Vici are 3-2 straight up, 1-4 against the map spread as favorites

Vici are 6-7 against the kill spread as favorites

OMG are 1-7 straight up, 5-3 against the map spread as underdogs

OMG are 10-14 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.625)

 

This Vici team just can’t seem to catch a win. They’ve been playing so well in so many of these games and just haven’t been able to get into the win column. That said, their last series against EDG was arguably their worst performance since a 2-1 win over Rogue Warriors. TOP, JDG, and FPX was what was between those matches and Vici looked great in each of those series. People love to hate on this team but they are significantly better than their record and are still very live to make a playoff push with a strong finish to their season. They’ll have their work cut out for them with Invictus and Suning still left on the schedule but Dominus and this OMG match are very winnable for them.

OMG have clearly differentiated themselves from the bottom tier teams in the LPL and have been surprisingly competitive against some good teams as well this season but other than Curse, this team has looked very poor in their past four series despite taking games in three of them. Icon in particular has been extremely disappointing.

A lot of people would make the argument that these two teams are in the same tier and that OMG are a value here but Vici have the edge in almost category in the blended economy/objective model which also factors in trending performance. Given the strength of Vici’s opponents during this run and comparing to their season long totals I’d expect them to show much better in this series. There’s also the element of Vici being live for playoffs while OMG are all but eliminated. Give me Vici.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.14

Time-projected: 24.86

Odds Weighted:  24.92

Underdog Win:33.71

“G” Projected Total: 25.31 kills

Right on the money. I’d probably lean under. Pass.

 

Vici game times: 32.68 / 31.51 / 33.44 (average / in wins / in losses)

OMG  game times:  33.73 / 35.25 / 32.74 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 33.21 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.85 minutes

While I’d definitely lean to the under, there’s a chance Vici take this slow and steady to make sure they don’t screw it up with a lead considering their season is on the line here. Pass.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: VG 50% / OMG 39.29%

First Tower: VG 50% / OMG 32.14%

First Dragon: VG 53.57% / OMG 50%

First Herald:  VG 57.14% / OMG 46.43%

There’s some value on OMG first dragon but I’ll be passing as I think this could be a blowout. The rest of these are fairly priced.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Vici -250 (2.5 units)

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +132 (1 unit)

 

 

 

EDward Gaming +202 (+1.5 maps @ -164, -1.5 @ +496) vs

FunPlus Phoenix -270 (-1.5 maps @ +128)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -109 / -5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -108)

Starting Lineups:

FPX – GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko

Trends:

FPX are 6-4 straight up, 3-7 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -651 / -6.9)

FPX are 10-16 against the kill spread as favorites

EDG are 1-5 straight up, 3-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +191 / +4.33)

EDG are 8-7 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

FunPlus are bringing GimGoon to start his second series in a row with their playoff hopes on the line. He had a nice counter dive play in game one but frankly did more bad than good overall in his return where Curse, in my opinion, thoroughly outplayed him. I’d expect better from him but I’ll give the benefit of the doubt as he shakes the rust off.

At 6-6, FunPlus still control their own destiny. They could win their final four series (vs EDG, LGD, Dominus, Suning) and secure a playoff spot. If they drop any of those series there is still a good chance they make it if they can finish 3-1 and most of the expected outcomes happen. Still, it’s slippery ground.

EDG would have to win their remaining five series (vs FPX, LNG, V5, BLG, and eStar) which is surprisingly more likely than I think people would think with a 4-7 team. After a rough go of it in their past handful of matches, EDG looked pretty good against Vici in their most recent outing.

This is a weird one… I’ve gone to bat for EDG most of this calendar year but in four of their past five outings they’ve been not only bad but completely out of character which is concerning especially when you see a season slipping away from them. I’ve also gone to bat for FPX assuming they would eventually turn it around (we see how well that’s panned out in Europe…) and get some wins in return for pretty good play overall.

The model says this is an absolute crush spot for EDG and rates these teams as essentially even in both the season long and trending-weighted versions (EDG slight edge in trending). EDG are also playing Jiejie who has performed much better of late compared to JunJia who played arguably his worst three series this year in his last three.

The biggest trick here is that until last series, EDG looked absolutely awful for about three weeks prior. FPX, while losing, were at least competitive against a very challenging schedule other than a massive no-show vs RW. I think FPX get this done but this is simply too big a number so I’ll be playing EDG for value.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.41

Time-projected: 25.21

Odds-Weighted: 27.03

Underdog Win:  31.15

“G” Projected Total: 25.88 kills

Given how much is at stake in this series I’d expect this to be a carefully played matchup and I like unders in those situations even though both of these teams tend to play higher kill games.

 

FPX game times: 31.04 / 30.93 / 31.15 (average / in wins / in losses)

EDG game times: 35.01 / 37.65 / 33.196 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.03 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.79 minutes

EDG win slow, FPX tend to win fast but I could see them taking their time and not taking many risks here. I’ll pass, lean under.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: FPX 63.33% / EDG 59.26%

First Tower: FPX 40% / EDG 48.14%

First Dragon: FPX 56.66% / EDG 33.33%

First Herald:  FPX 43.33% / EDG 59.26%

EDG first tower and herald are the plays here. There’s value in FPX first dragon as well.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -164 (1.64 units)

Moneyline: EDG +202 (0.5 units)

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +496 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 26.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first dragon @ -154 (0.77 units)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first dragon @ -154 (0.77 units)

Prop: Map 1 EDG first tower @ +107 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 EDG first tower @ +106 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 EDG first herald @ -102 (0.51 units)

Prop: Map 2 EDG first herald @ -102 (0.51 units)

  

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 3

 

 

T1 -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -278) vs

Hanwha Life Esports +774 (+1.5 maps @ +207, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -119 / +9.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 5.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Trends:

T1 are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 against the map spread as favorites

T1 are 11-13 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.1)

T1 are 5-2 against the kill spread against bottom three teams (HLE, SP, SB) (-7.66 avg)

HLE are 0-8 straight up, 1-7 against the map spread as underdogs

HLE are 4-13 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.125)

 

This is obviously a hyper chalky situation but I’ll just mention that it seems like Hanwha have had T1’s number for whatever reason this season and even dating back to last year. They stole a really bizarre game in the first meeting this Summer, won the first series against T1 in Spring and took a game off of them the second time as well. Even last year Hanwha beat T1 in the final week of the season. It doesn’t really make a lot of sense given how terrible Hanwha have been especially this year but they’ve got a bit of a reputation for being the Miami Dolphins to T1’s New England Patriots so at the very least I’d caution against extreme confidence in T1 here especially because they’ve looked a bit off in their past few matches even in the game wins.

As bad as Hanwha Life are, they have actually made some adjustments and have looked a little bit better with this Mireu, Haru, DuDu version of the team. They’re playing simple, easy to execute compositions which is what I like to see from weaker teams who frequently overcomplicate things. I also think that Viper and Lehends are one of the few bottom lanes in the league that can at least measure up to Teddy and Effort.

It seems a little crazy but I’m going with Hanwha here. Consider this more of a bet against T1 in their current form than an endorsement of Hanwha. T1 have had some very suspect drafting and macro decision making and I could see them dropping a game here. Who knows what happens from there.

I’ll also mention that in both the LPL and LCK this time of year tends to start getting a little bit weird. Certain teams check out when their season is done, others embrace the pressure being lifted and play much looser and more comfortably while the better teams sometimes tighten up and play over conservatively. The model basically suggests that T1 aren’t this much better than anybody (including SeolHaeOne). I still think they’ll be fine but I happen to agree.

I was going to play kill spreads here but T1 have actually had a fairly high AMOV for the season even if their trending is much lower so I’ll just stick to a light play on the side.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.08

Time-projected: 22.18

Odds Weighted:  22.19

Underdog Win: 23.91

“G” Projected Total: 22.15 kills

 

T1 game times: 35.53 / 32.12 / 35.51 (average / in wins / in losses)

HLE  game times: 32.46 / 36.05 / 31.61(average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 33.0 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.28 minutes

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: T1 58.33% / HLE 38.46%

First Tower: T1 50% / HLE 26.92%

First Dragon: T1 62.5% / HLE 50%

First Herald:  T1 33.33% / HLE 42.31%

Hanwha dragons and heralds are big enough plus odds that you really just need 1 to hit on each map for a nice profit amd given that these are frequently traded in all but the most lopsided stomps (which T1 haven’t been doing) this is a reasonable approach.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Hanwha +1.5 maps @ +204 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Hanwha +756 (0.5 units)

Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first dragon @ +141 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first dragon @ +141 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first herald @ +156 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first herald @ +156 (0.5 units)

 

 

 

 

DragonX -123 (-1.5 maps @ +246) vs

Gen.G Esports -103 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 maps @ +262)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / uunder -116)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -115 / +0.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5 (yea weird)

Time Total: 34:00 (over +104 / under -135)

 

I’m a bit of a DragonX truther. I like their approach to the game, I like the players, I like that their economy is damn near untouchable and that they don’t need extra variables like first bloods and towers to augment it. While they may seem inconsistent in terms of results, they’re remarkably consistent in individual execution. They’re also really whacky and maintain this consistency regardless of the weird stuff they’ll play.

The thing is Gen.G have been really REALLY good this split too. Gen.G’s only two losses were a series that I’d argue they should have won 2-0 vs T1 if not for some heroics by Faker and an extremely competitive three game series to open their season against DragonX where DragonX pulled some rabbits out of hats to execute in a wild but deserved win in game three.

To me this is close to a coinflip and I’d actually weight it in Gen.G’s favor slightly given that they more consistently put themselves in an advantageous position with a very potent early game. It’s much easier to play from that position. I also think they tend to play draft’s a lot less risky although they aren’t opposed to more aggressive counterpicks. I was going to take whoever was the underdog here.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 23.49

Time-projected: 23.98

Odds Weighted:  23.3

Underdog Win: 24.45

“G” Projected Total: 23.59 kills

The over feels like a decent play here even though these close series between elite teams in the LCK tend to go under. I’ll play half stake on the over.

 

DRX game times: 31.66 / 31.17 / 33.12 (average / in wins / in losses)

Gen.G  game times: 31.39 / 30.62 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time:  31.53 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.20 minutes

With such a juiced under I’ll just pass on this one.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: DRX 46.43% / GEG 72%

First Tower: DRX 39.29% / GEG 76%

First Dragon: DRX 46.43% / GEG 64%

First Herald:  DRX 35.71% / GEG 88%

Gen.G first herald and dragon are both minus odds but rarely do you want to play both laying money (plus money is different). First herald looks solid at -109. Given the similar economies between these teams you can see why I think it’s bizarre that Gen.G aren’t favored in this match other than that DRX won the first meeting.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Gen.G -103 (1.03 units)

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +262 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)

 

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 2

 

 

 

Team Vitality -116 vs Excel Esports -110

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -111 / -0.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

I tend to like Excel a bit more here but this is a coinflip matchup. I’ll pass.

My Picks:

no wager

 

 

Misfits -185 vs Schalke 04 +145

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -109 / +5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

Misfits should win this one but Schalke did look significantly better yesterday. The question is whether or not you think that was a symptom of G2’s weak performance or actual improvement. Generally you shouldn’t overreact to one game. Misfits should win this but I really don’t think they should be laying this kind of money against anybody right now given their game-to-game inconsistencies.

My Picks:

no wager

 

G2 Esports +100 vs Rogue -128

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -111 / -1.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total:  OTB

It’s tough not to buy on G2 at plus money but we should be getting a bigger number than this. Rogue are playing outstanding LOL right now. If anything I’d lean toward them for a side here but there isn’t a lot of value in it. I do, however, like the under quite a bit in this matchup. 25.5 is an extremely high total for the LEC this season with only a few games with this or higher. Rogue have one of the lowest CKPM’s in the league and while G2 have one of the highest, even projecting this out to a 32 minute game spits out an under 25.5 at G2’s 0.79 CKPM number.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

 

 

MAD Lions -417 vs SK Gaming +296

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

MAD haven’t been perfect but they’ve also been an excellent in-game problem solving team which makes me trust them to find their way out of difficult positions. Really this team is just hyper confident right now. They’re having fun destroying everybody! SK Gaming played a competitive match against Excel that they eventually lost and while I like this team quite a bit, they’re still a cut below the top teams in the league.

MAD are winning by an average of almost 12 kills per game and SK are losing by just short of 10 kills per game. I haven’t laid a lot of large kill spreads this season given that there have been a lot of lower totals but MAD Lions are a team that I can trust to cover.  MAD have covered in 7 out of 8 games as favorites with an average spread of -6.21.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: MAD -8.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

 

Fnatic -141 vs Origen +110

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -116 / +1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total:OTB

I find it a little strange that Fnatic are favored here but both of these teams have had their inconsistencies this season. Fnatic are coming off of a good showing against MAD Lions while Origen just lost decisively against Vitality. Again, overreacting to one loss is something that we shouldn’t be doing in Seaon 10 LOL where tools to snowball a game out are potent and easy. Origen tried to go over the top with scaling against Vitality’s scaling and got punished by it as Skeanz was simply too far ahead and beating Xerxe to the punch at objectives. The bottom lane did not have a good game either and it was riddled with mistakes.

I think this line is pretty close to accurate. There isn’t really any value in taking either side on the moneyline but depending on the kill spreads available to you you could actually set up a sort of middle here with say a Fnatic -3.5 at plus odds and an Origen -1.5 at plus odds. I have to pay up to -4.5 for Fnatic plus money so I’ll pass but that’s an option you should look into.

My Picks:

no wagers

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 2

 

100 Thieves -135 vs vs Counter Logic Gaming +106

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -114 / +1.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

100T are 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the kill spread as favorites (vs IMG, CLG, Dig)

CLG are 4-5 straight up, 7-2 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

This was off the board for most of this week due to roster speculation but it looks like we’re getting Ruin for CLG and Poome/Contractz for 100T as expected. I’ve been a fairly persistent denier or 100T and supporter of CLG but I have to admit that 100T have looked significantly better in recent weeks and look to me like a probable playoff team. They played competitive games against a brutal schedule of Liquid, TSM, Cloud 9, and FlyQuest in their past four matches taking two of them down in the process to go 2-2 over the toughest stretch of their schedule. At 4-8 it’s do-or-die time for 100T. While I don’t think they’re likely to miss playoffs I do think teams want to avoid going to the lower bracket at all costs so getting to that top six position is crucial.

CLG have looked pretty terrible besides an entertaining win over TSM two weeks back but they’re going back to Ruin here after trying Deus out last week. CLG has been the Pobelter show. When he’s able to put the team on his back they win, when he can’t carry them they lose. Pretty much everybody else has been unrelieable. At 5-7, CLG could creat a two game gap between them and 100T in the playoff race with a win here.

I’ve been avoiding favorites in the bottom five teams for most of the season given the variance in the game right now and the inconsistencies of these lower LCS teams but I think 100T is the play here. I think their aggressive, proactive approach to the game is not only a more optimal style right now but also a great way to punish teams that handshake scale and CLG have been one of those teams. I also think it’s a better fit for the personnel that 100T have and their improvement has coincided with this adaptation. It’s close but I do think 100T are worth a play here. I’ll be taking a blend of diversified kill spreads for value but you could play the moneyline. There have been a lot of winners with fewer kills and even games so I wouldn’t disagree with you on that.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: 100T -2.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)

Kill Spread: 100T -4.5 @ +113 (0.5 units)

 

Team Solo Mid -294 vs Dignitas +217

Kill Total: 19.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

TSM are 6-4 straight up, 3-7 against the kill spread as favorites

With the Dardoch/Fenix roster, Dignitas are 3-3 straight up, 5-1 against the kill spread as underdogs

It’s a little bit weird that Dignitas appear to be going with V1per again given how poorly he’s played this season (including that Riven game where he was dominated in lane). He’s lost matchups where he’s been favored without jungle attention multiple times this season and should be considered a liability. What V1per does do, however, is draw a Riven ban frequently which gives his team leverage in drafts.

TSM looked like they were finally getting some momentum going and then lost three out of their last four against an eclectic list of C9, Immortals, 100T, and FlyQuest. We saw Treatz last week at support. He was decent, neither good nor bad to me.

While I think this total is very low and will be betting the over, I also think that when you see these low projected total games getting a big kill spread is always appetizing.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 19.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Kill Spread: Dignitas +6.5 @ -122 (0.915 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +217 (0.25 units)

 

Golden Guardians +135 vs FlyQuest -172

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ +100 / -4.5 @ -130

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Golden Guardians are 2-4 straight up, 4-2 against the kill spread as underdogs

FlyQuest are 3-3 straight up, 1-5 against the kill spread as favorites

 

We saw a return to form for FlyQuest last night as they played a rock solid macro game in a decisive win against Team Liquid. It’s one game but definitely a sight for sore eyes as FlyQuest had been so good at this all year until the past few weeks. That said, Liquid, Impact and Jensen in particular, were pretty badly outplayed in this game and they were they keystones of their composition. Impact lost in a counter matchup that Solo picked himself into and Jensen wasn’t able to get enough done on Zoe.

Golden Guardians, who won the last meeting between these two, have been fairly consistent against the bad teams but are 1-4 against the top three with their only win the aforementioned FlyQuest match.

Golden Guardians are 3-2 against the kill spread against top three teams (TSM, TL, C9) but those spreads were significantly higher (avg +7.1)  than this one.  I do think Golden Guardians are live to win this game for sure but that FlyQuest are actually a decent value favorite in this spot. I won’t be laying the moneyline but the value on a small kill spread for a favorite this size is actually pretty solid given the implied total.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest -4.5 kills @ -130 (1.3 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

 

Cloud 9 -909 vs Immortals +522

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -102 / +10.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 5.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Cloud 9 are 10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the kill spread as favorites

With the Academy version of the roster Immortals are 3-6 straight up. 6-3 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

I’ve been leveraging that gigantic moneylines against Cloud 9 by playing big kill spreads that they produce against them. While I have no doubt that C9 win this game, I do think there are way too many things that need to go correctly in any given game to justify any team covering a kill spread this big unless they’ve shown a propensity to style/run the score up which Cloud 9 have not. I’d also lean to the under here given Cloud 9’s low game times and the low projected total here although I could definitely see this turning wild if IMT are able to contest anything early.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Immortals +10.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

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