Friday, July 17th Recap

 

FunPlus vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -4.19 units)

This FPX draft looked really greedy to a lot of people but it made sense in that you have two outer lanes that should have priority at the very least if not outright win to buy time for your Kassadin to scale up. Trades are good for scaling teams but it’s a delicate balance just like an early game snowball team. I’ve constantly been preaching about this. It’s just as risky to play scaling sometimes. This was an example.

Game one looked like it was off to a decent start for FPX with first blood before they opted to trade towers top vs bottom but RW had herald and ended up getting both tier one and two towers and half the inhibitor tower. The game was essentially blown open from there. RW got a huge gold injection had a stronger team fight for the next few barons and FPX didn’t abuse the top lane towers being down by freezing or anything because they had to be at the dragons. RW tried to lose this game but did eventually get there before Kassadin could really get fully online.

Game two opened with a really poorly coordinated invade that can only really be described as a bit tilt-y looking from FPX. It got out of control from there as they played scaling once against and got snowballed on again.

I’ll give credit to Rogue Warriors. If people are going to disrespect you like that it’s good that you have the ability to punch them in the mouth but this series was a great example of what I’ve been saying all season. You need to be the team with agency. Early and mid game teams are so much better if you can execute even decently. Scaling is so risky in the world of heralds and dragon souls. Playing proactive defense is significantly harder than it used to be.

FPX have been losing but looking intelligent and competitive until this series which just looked like pure disrespect for Rogue Warriors and they got punished for it. The problem now is that they’re making things difficult on themselves the rest of the way. I had concerns over Doinb’s champion pool but I’ve always had concerns for his champion pool. FPX have always found intelligent ways around it. Am I worried about FPX? A little bit. This was very VERY off-brand for them. They’re not this type of team. They are an emotional squad that thrives on momentum and they just haven’t been able to piece together a lot this season. I want to see them get back to picking proactive compositions.

 

EDG vs LGD (Net: -1.75 units)

Game two was a little close but eventually got too out of hand. LGD still showing issues with setup and how they could lose and just ignoring it but they just outclassed EDG here. JunJia had the first really poor series we’ve seen from him. It just looked like he wasn’t thinking today. Multiple times he was caught out, not even from a creative setup before an objective by LGD but just by face checking for absolutely no reason. EDG are in quite a rut at this point, not really sure how to evaluate them moving forward as this was primarily some poor performances by JunJia and Xiaoxiang.

 

LPL Total: -5.94 units

 

DragonX vs Hanwha Life (Net: -1.57 units)

Honestly HLE were more competitive in this series than I thought they’d be but this wasn’t really close.

Afreeca vs DAMWON (Net: -0.55 units)

Watching DAMWON speed run the non-elite LCK teams sure is fun isn’t it? This team is extremely good but I still don’t think they’re as good as their numbers. Be wary against good teams.

 

LCK Total: -2.12 units

 

Vitality vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.2 units)

SK were spoon fed a lead to their Twitch/Yuumi lane and still nearly threw this a few times. Their comp was challenging to execute and it got ugly at times but they eventually made out in the end.

Rogue vs Schalke 04 (Net: -1.12 units)

Rogue are good, Schalke are not. Inspired made Gilius look terrible in this game.

Misfits vs Fnatic (Net: -1.23 units)

Misfits jumped out to a 5k gold lead in the first 15 minutes of this game and continued pushing the pace as Fnatic scrambled to find a way back into the game down 2 dragons, 7 kills, and the aforementioned gold. At one point Fnatic were down cloud soul and 7.3k gold with a Senna carry but they managed to claw a few kills back after Misfits took baron and then win a team fight with an ace at elder drake from down almost 8k gold. Eventually Fnatic brought it all the way back.

This was an unbelievable comeback by Fnatic. Frankly I don’t even really think Misfits played this poorly or threw or anything Fnatic just straight up out teamfought them and show cased just how busted Senna is.

MAD Lions vs Excel (Net: +1.0 units)

This was close for a little bit but eventually MAD Lions just managed to come out ahead on a few skirmishes in a row and it just felt completely over for Excel. Excel played this early game really well too.

G2 Esports vs Origen (Net: -2.49 units)

This was a really good game. I thought both teams did a lot of great things but the bottom lane for G2 got a little too far behind with all of the early action and Ashe vs Malphite in a side lane isn’t a fun thing for Ashe so Perkz wasn’t able to get farmed up. Still, G2 did a lot of good things in this game identifying opportunities for fights knowing they were behind. Ultimately Origen had the stronger team comp. Tahm+Senna and a Jarvan+Orianna ult to your Ashe+Kog immobile backline ended up being too much especially from behind.

Wouldn’t overthink this one. G2 still did some good things, Origen did a lot of good things.

 

LECTotal: -5.04 units

 

TSM vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.0 units)

This was a fairly close game that took yet another weird base blitz/backdoor by TSM to win. People want to complain about the LCS and that’s fine but TSM actually operated this poke comp quite well and did pretty much everything right except stick the landing. Even then they got there. These aren’t easy to run but Wukong never found a really good engage until it was too late. Good control of vision and objective setup to prevent that from happening.

Liquid vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.0 units)

Karma + Senna feels like a non-combo but until you’ve played against the oppressive permashielding, permahealing team comp that never dies unless you immediately delete someone don’t talk smack on it. Liquid just navigated this game better. Jensen completely dumpstered GoldenGlue or maybe EG would have had a chance. Impact and Huni definitely had some ego war going on in the top lane as both played poorly trying to style on each other… it was ugly. Liquid look pretty clear cut as the #2 to me even if they aren’t exactly the sexiest team.

Parlay: +1.37 units

LCS Total: +3.37 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: -9.73 units

Awful day… Whiffed on a handful of the props in the sweeps earlier. Went overweight 1.5x on FunPlus to be let down. Europe was terrible too. Back at it again tomorrow.

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 6

 

 

 

BiliBili Gaming -217 (-1.5 maps @ +152) vs

Dominus Esports +167 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +360)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -122 / +4.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -112 / under -118)

Starting Lineups:

BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo

DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui

Trends:

BLG have only been favored once this season (vs OMG). They won 2-1

DMO are 1-7 straight up, 4-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +501)

DMO have covered the map spread in their past four matches and won 2-0 vs EDG

 

Since making the move to this roster Dominus have actually been fairly competitive. With game wins over Team WE, Suning, Invictus, and Rogue Warriors as well as a 2-0 sweep of EDG. They also had the light schedule this week getting an extra few days off to prepare for this match.

BiliBili enter this contest with wins over OMG and LNG and games taken off of Suning and Invictus. With Meteor back in the lineup they’ve recaptured their identity and while they’ve struggled to close out games they’ve done significantly better getting leads in the first place, something they’d struggled with the rest of the season.

My model has Dominus and LNG far and away the worst teams in the LPL and until recently BiliBili was amongst that group as well along with OMG. BiliBili are strong at the points where LGD are weak (early) but I also think the extra preparation time serves these bad teams well at least in the short term. We’ve seen a few of them come back stronger off a light week. By no means are Dominus good but I don’t think BiliBili deserve to be laying this much against anybody besides LNG. Dominus will at least put up a fight. I’d expect them to have a game plan for this match. Teams have shown how to force Meteor onto a less tempo oriented jungler and I’d expect them to employ that strategy here. I think Dominus are deserving underdogs just not by this much.

 

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 28.10

Time-projected: 26.93

Odds Weighted:  26.81

Underdog Win: 26.88

“G” Projected Total: 27.28 kills

I like the over kill total in this spot quite a bit.

 

BLGgame times: 32.22 / 33.04 / 31.69 (average / in wins / in losses)

DMO  game times: 31.5 / 32.89 / 31.03 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.86 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.13 minutes

I’d lean to the under but BiliBili in particular have had some trouble cleanly closing with a lead.

Other Markets:

First Blood: BLG 47.83% / DMO 54.17%

First Tower: BLG 47.82% / DMO 41.66%

First Dragon: BLG 56.52% / DMO 37.5%

First Herald:  BLG 56.52% / DMO 41.67%

Value on BiliBili first dragon and Dominus first blood

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Dominus +1.5 maps @ -196 (1.96 units)

Moneyline: Dominus +167 (0.5 units)

Spread: Dominus -1.5 maps @ +360 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -118 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -118 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Dominus first blood @ -114 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Dominus first blood @ -114 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 BLG first dragon @ -123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 BLG first dragon @ -123 (1 unit)

 

 

 

 

Invictus Gaming -182 (-1.5 maps @ +167) vs

Royal Never Give Up +141 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +336)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Starting Lineups:

IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan

RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming

Trends:

Invictus are 7-2 straight up, 3-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -475)

Invictus are  12-11 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.83)

Opponents have covered their kill total against Invictus in 13 out of 23 games where IG were favored

IG have covered their team total in 11 out of 23 games as favorites

RNG are 1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the map spread as underdogs (vs JDG, FPX)

 

RNG have not fared well against good teams this season. Their wins are against OMG, Vici (when they were struggling in week one), JDG (week two), eStar, and EDG. Some of those teams are decent but keep in mind Vici were struggling at the time and JDG were shaking the rust off early in the season from MSC. eStar and EDG you could argue aren’t good teams at this point. RNG’s losses have been competitive usually for one game. Suning, FPX, and Team WE were all 1-2 losses and V5 2-0’d them. LNG also 2-0’d them. Even looking at their record RNG are as two-faced as they can be within a series.

Invictus have dropped some games here and there but they’ve been slowly but surely piecing together a solid season despite all of the roster shuffling and weaker early season performances from TheShy. They’ve also been reinventing themselves from a strategic standpoint along the way. More consistent drafts with solid game plans, a variety of styles, and just overall more logical team compositions have really helped give IG direction.

I absolutely love Invictus in this spot. Baolan returning to the lineup was an unexpected surprise as it was looking like maybe he was going to just fade into obscurity after a bizarre lack of communication or playing time over the course of 2020. When he’s playing, Baolan is a legitimate top ten support in the world and arguably higher (I’d put him higher, top five). Not that Southwind is bad but reuniting 4/5th’s of the World Championship roster and much more sensible drafting along with the ridiculous level Rookie continues to play at make this team a sleeping giant. I think Invictus have a reasonable chance at winning the LPL this split. This team is very good. The model has them 4th only to TOP, V5, and JDG and I agree.

RNG have struggled against good teams and I don’t think this will be any different. Invictus smash.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.63

Time-projected: 25.28

Odds-Weighted: 24.27

Underdog Win:  24.99

“G” Projected Total: 25.06 kills

Too much variance in the variety of strategies Invictus are playing right now. If they’re going to play counterpick split push this is an easy under. Otherwise this could be a total blood bath. Maybe worth looking into alt totals both extremes but I’m just going to pass.

 

IG game times: 31.39 / 29.71 / 34.29 (average / in wins / in losses)

RNG game times: 32.70 / 32.77 / 32.63 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times):  32.05 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.09 minutes

No play. Lean to under. Both of these teams tend to steamroll in wins. RNG have two rather long fiesta games that are warping their averages in wins.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: IG 36.67% / RNG 64%

First Tower:  IG 53.33% / RNG 44%

First Dragon: IG 60% / RNG 48%

First Herald:  IG 36.67% / RNG 40%

Value in IG first dragon and RNG first blood

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Invictus -169 (3.38 units)

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +164 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 IG first dragon @ -123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 IG first dragon @ -123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -130 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -130 (1 unit)

 

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 4

 

 

 

KT Rolster -108 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +268) vs

SANDBOX Gaming -119 (-1.5 maps @ +245, +1.5 @ -370)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -125 / -0.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 35:00 (over +131 / under -172)

 

Sandbox did not look good at all in their first two games against SeolHaeOne. Game three was better but I still have my questions about this team. Yamato has clearly helped them out there’s no denying that but I think the hype is a little bit overblown. Sandbox have played SeolHaeOne, KT Rolster (without Tusin), Hanwha Life, and Team Dynamics (who is decent) since Yamato has joined them on stage. They haven’t faced anybody particularly good and have been spoon-fed three, maybe four of their wins on a silver platter. In other words, this winning streak is more a symptom of their opposition than their own play. Are Sandbox improved? Absolutely and wins are wins but I’m skeptical.

KT are coming off of a Telecom War against T1 that opened with a shellacking and then an extremely competitive game that KT probably should have won in game two. Prior to this they were without Tusin for a few series and managed to get one.

I talked at length about this one on the podcast. To me both of these teams are trending upward and should improve as the season goes on, I just think KT have much more upside in terms of talent. They also have experience. I could see the justification for Sandbox but I’m rolling with KT Rolster here. Full disclosure, I’m fairly bullish on this team compared to most so proceed accordingly. I’m still just very skeptical of Sandbox and their last series against the worst team in the LCK showed a lot of very poor play in the first two games that certainly didn’t help their cause.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.98

Time-projected: 22.38

Odds Weighted: 23.17

Underdog Win: 23.91

“G” Projected Total: 22.85 kills

Overs.

 

SB game times:  32.42 / 33.72 / 31.44 (average / in wins / in losses)

KT  game times:  33.09 / 33.86 / 32.68 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.756 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.93 minutes

It’s so weird that this number is so high but I’ll take it.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: SB 38.1% / KT 65%

First Tower: SB 61.9% / KT 45%

First Dragon: SB 52.38% / KT 65%

First Herald:  SB 47.62% / KT 55%

Still some value on KT first blood. Look around at first herald my book has some weird stuff going on where it’s juiced game one and plus money game two. Looked into it, just an off number.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: KT Rolster -109 (1.09 units)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +268 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -172 (1.72 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -172 (1.72 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -108 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 KT first blood @ -139 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 KT first blood @ -139 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2** only KT first herald @ +102 (1 unit)

 

 

 

T1 -125 (-1.5 maps @ +237) vs

Gen.G eSports -102 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 maps @ +264)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -114 / +0.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -102 / under -128)

 

This match handicap more or less comes down to whether you think Gen.G can shake the proverbial monkey off of their back here. They just can’t seem to beat this T1 team. Gen.G have been the better team so far in Summer and even had leads in the first meeting before Faker pulled a rabbit out of a hat. At some point it just has to be wearing on them and give a psychological edge to T1 but it could also serve as extra motivation.

Gen.G are the better team here. If you think they can’t get over the hurdle feel free to back T1 but I’m taking the value with the better team currently. T1 have been the most inconsistent of the elite four LCK teams.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.38

Time-projected: 22.65

Odds Weighted: 22.85

Underdog Win: 24.75

“G” Projected Total: 22.628 kills

While these games between good teams tend to be lower scoring in the LCK I think this total is a little low.

 

T1 game times: 33.55 / 32.12 / 36.06 (average / in wins / in losses)

Gen.G  game times: 31.15 / 30.08 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.35 minutes

Odds Weighted:  33.02 minutes

Both of these teams can snowball a game out and I’d expect an under. 34:00 is a really high number. Typically when you get these good teams the games are more lopsided than perception dictates.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: T1 63.64% / GEG 66.67%

First Tower: T1 50% / GEG 76.19%

First Dragon: T1 63.64% / GEG 61.9%

First Herald: T1 36.36% / GEG 85.71%

First herald for Gen.G at plus money seems unfair so we’ll be taking that for sure (this is also an error line, only posted on first map but will also be taking -125 on map two).

Gen.G first tower isn’t bad either.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Gen.G -102 (1.02 units)

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +264 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -109 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -109 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -128 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first tower @ -130 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first tower @ -145 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first herald @ +107 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first herald @ -125 (1 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 2

 

I’ll be writing on this later tonight and early tomorrow morning.

 

LEC Trends through four weeks (NOT including yesterday):

Favorites are 24-21 straight up (avg odds: -285)

Favorites are 20-25 against the kill spread (avg: -6.21)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER 28 out of 45 games (avg total: 23.12)

Time Totals have gone UNDER 26 out of 45 games (avg total: 32)

Favorites have covered their team total 16 out of 45 games (avg total: 14.06)

Underdogs have covered their team total 24 out of 45 games (avg total: 8.59)

 

SK Gaming -189 vs FC Schalke 04 +147

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -105 / +4.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

 

SK Gaming picked up the win against Vitality yesterday but they definitely left a lot to be desired. Vitality commited to a big fight in the bottom lane that was already lost before the teleports arrived and Crownshot’s Twitch was able to pick up a few kills which made this game really difficult. Still, Vitality had outs to win, Bard ult on Twitch and more. SK Gaming played recklessly aggressive in a few spots knowing Crownshot had no flash up and no QSS to cleanse the ult. Vitality actually caught him and made a game out of this. This is some cause for concern but SK did end up getting the win.

Schalke played Rogue close for the first 10-15 minutes before it all came crashing down with a few big mistakes. Gilius was severely out jungled but his laners were able to mask it by getting their own advantages. Schalke show some of the same problems but the fact that their lanes were able to hang in there for awhile is at least a good sign. They’re certainly not mailing the season in so that’s good.

We discussed this one on the podcast, even the most optimistic SK supporters have to look at this number and feel that it’s too large. Schalke are pretty bad but they’re not a complete dumpster fire and should be competitive in this game. I’ll take the dogs for a half stake.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Schalke +147 (0.5 units)

 

Rogue -270 vs Excel Esports +204

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 7.5

Time Total: OTB

 

MAD had a bit of a botched opening in this one but ultimately their quality won out even with a bizarre naked Pantheon support (meaning he had no Senna or Kalista or the like to really enable him). It was just a straight up kill lane support. MAD continue to show new looks and keep teams guessing and problem solve on the fly. They remind me so much of G2 it’s not even funny. We’ll get to them in a bit. Anyway this is about Excel who were given some help and just couldn’t hold serve in this one before it eventually exploded in favor ot MAD. Excel had been playing well leading into this but I think we need to remind ourselves that this isn’t one of the great teams, just a decent team.

Rogue continue to dominate… Inspired made Gilius look really silly in this one and while it was close, it never really felt like Rogue were in danger of losing.

Rogue are the better squad here and they don’t look like the type of team that’s going to drop random games to weaker foes very often. Rogue are now 4-1 against the kill spread with an average spread of -6.5.  They’ve covered their number with plenty of room in most of those games. I like the Rogue spread here.

There is some value in the props for Excel given the large number.  I’m going to do a split stake on the first tower and first herald both at substantial plus money. Excel have exceeded in both categories and while Rogue have too, all it takes is a dragon for herald trade for this to happen.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 kills @ -108 (2.16 units)

Prop: Excel first tower @ +155 (0.5 units)

Prop: Excel first herald @ +125 (0.5 units) 

 

 

Team Vitality +220 vs Fnatic -294

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

 

People are going to get all over Misfits and Fnatic for that game yesterday but I didn’t really see too many egregious errors by either which is bizarre in a game that has such a substantial comeback. Usually it takes mutliple criticle errors for that to happen but Fnatic just out team fought Misfits in over and over from a multi-thousand gold deficit and abused the power of Senna in a longer fight. Fnatic had unbelievably good team fighting in this game. The question is how much should we criticize them getting in that situation to begin with which is a totally fair thing to call out. I don’t usually look too much into the non-rift stuff but Fnatic visually looked totally confident after that win, they weren’t happy or relieved but they weren’t made either. It was just like another day at the office. That’s what I like to see. After a game like that it’d be easy to get negative and they weren’t.

Vitality nearly clawed back against a massive early mistake against SK Gaming but didn’t quite get there. It was nice seeing Skeanz back on the rift but he didn’t exactly get a lot done on his signature Lee Sin. It’s only one game back but he’ll be against significantly tougher competition in Selfmade in this game.

Vitality and the rest of the bottom of the table are all functional teams and far from the dumpster fire bottom dwellers we see in other leagues. They’re going to get games when they’re handed to them but this number is only this low because of Fnatic’s struggles. If you’re bearish on Fnatic you could easily justify a play on Vitality or at least the kill spread which Fnatic have been AWFUL against (2-7). You could also look to prop markets given the size of the underdog here but I’m going the other way here and buying low on Fnatic. Vitality was a 15-5 clean shellacking the first time around and Fnatic weren’t in particularly great form last time either.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: -6.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

 

Origen -127 vs Misfits +100

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -122 / +2.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5 (split offers to 8.5s juiced as well)

Time Total: OTB

(This line opened similar to this and then ballooned toward Misfits as the week progressed and is now back to the old number which is why some of the prop markets are really whacked out for this one)

As mentioned above, I don’t think it’s that fair to criticize Misfits. Sure, they could have played things better in that comeback but I think people are going to be overly critical when we just witnessed some miraculous stuff. I still have my issues with this team but they’re continuing to impress me.

Talk about a bounce back… Origen straight up took it to G2 AGAIN. Jactroll played an outstanding game in this one and seemed in excellent spirits in the post game interview where he talked about having teammates “that actually listen” for a change. Origen have had a bit of the RNG two-faced this going on this season but the fact that they’ve shown these spikes and came out looking incredibly sharp out of the week off bodes well for their outlook the rest of the season.

I love Origen in this spot. I just think the’yre a strictly better team across the board even if their statistics don’t say so and that the only reason we’re getting a number this low is because of the records here. I’m fairly bullish on Origen bouncing back and yesterday at least somewhat reaffirmed that although I was going to be on this play regardless as we talked about on the podcast this week. If you’re less optimistic this is probably a spot to stay away.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Origen -127 (0.9525 units)

Kill Spread: Origen -4.5 kills @ +111 (0.3175 units)

 

 

G2 Esports -156 vs MAD Lions +122

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -116 / +4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

 

This ticked down from G2 -175 earlier in the week due to the loss yesterday and MAD Lions win. As I mentioned in the recap, I don’t think G2 looked particularly bad in their loss yesterday by any means. Origen just took it to them. They were still doing a lot of the good things G2 do, finding windows, playing toward the big picture, etc but Origen just took it to them. I think we need to stop criticizing both G2 and Fnatic for losses to good teams. They aren’t the kings anymore but that doesn’t mean they’re “cooked” or “done” or “bad.”

That said, it’s pretty difficult to say no to the MAD Lions here right? They’ve been the better team although if they pull some nonsense like they did yesterday and botch an opening I don’t think G2 will be as forgiving.

I think just take the dog whoever it was going to be in this spot. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see either team smash here. G2 aren’t bad and they aren’t done they’ve just got a lot more competition now.

My Picks:

Moneyline: MAD Lions +122 (1 unit)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 2

 

I’ll be writing on this tomorrow morning or early afternoon.

 

 

Cloud 9 -500 vs Evil Geniuses +341

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -108 / +8.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Cloud 9 are 4-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -9.2)

EG are 0-2 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.5)(vs C9 and Liquid)

 

While C9 haven’t been a great against the spread team, I think this iteration of Evil Geniuses is just an auto-fade against any competent team. Goldenglue got absolutely destroyed by Jensen yesterday and Huni wasn’t great in his debut this Summer. EG look lost and Cloud 9 are the worst possible team to see when that’s the case. C9 should roll over this.

I got this number at -370/-7.5 earlier in the week. I still like it at -8.5. You could choose to attack the prop markets if you prefer but I’m just going to keep it simple and take the blue chip.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -370 (3.7 units)

Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -7.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 

 

FlyQuest +103 vs Team Solo Mid -132

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -115 / -1.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

FlyQuest are 2-2 straight up, 4-0 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds: +110, avg spread: +3.25)

TSM are 6-3 straight up, 3-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds: -198, avg spread: -4.94)

 

TSM continue to end games in the weirdest fashion possible which might end up biting them in the ass at some point but they’re doing pretty much everything else about as well as you could ask for. BrokenBlade played extremely well on the Jayce yesterday as they executed well on the poke composition against EG’s shield/heal comp.

FlyQuest struggled mightily last week showing uncharacteristic and fatal macro errors in both games. This team has enough of a track record that I’m willing to give them a pass but they’re on watch. Good decision making and balanced drafting has been FlyQuest’s calling card this year and if one of those goes out the window it’s cause for concern.

I think TSM have been the slightly better team this season but I also think it’s well within the realm of possibility that FlyQuest look better than they did last week. I’ll be taking a half stake on FlyQuest here. This matchup is pretty close to a 50/50 for me.

TSM have a pretty big edge in first tower although it’s worth noting that FlyQuest weirdly have only a 33.3% first tower rate while having a 61.1% herald control rate. First heralds matter folks. There’s some value in TSM first tower.

I’m also going to be on the under in this match. While both of these teams boast high CKPM numbers, this is a crucial match and I think we’ll see teams tighten up as the season goes along. This is also the highest non-Cloud 9 total that’s been posted the entire season and for two fairly sound fundamental teams it wouldn’t surprise me to see a closer-to-the-vest, lower scoring affair in a bout that could potentially affect playoff seeding.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -114 (1.71 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +103 (0.5 units)

Prop: TSM first tower @ -143 (0.715 units)

 

 

Golden Guardians -156 vs Immortals +122

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -112 / +4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

GG are 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the kill spread (same wins/losses) as favorites (avg odds: -161, avg spread: -4)

Immortals (new roster) are 2-4 straight up, 4-2 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds: +335, +7.33)

 

I’ve been saying it all season but bottom five teams should never be trusted as favorites. Most of the LCS is tremendously inconsistent. I’ll be taking the dogs here just on principle. Immortals have started to come back down to earth and while I think they’re not very good, I don’t exactly trust GG as moderate favorites.

I could see this game getting a little weird but more than likely it’ll be two teams playing overcautiously because this is starting to but higher pressure “must win” type territory. I’d lean under but will pass at this number. Combined KPM suggests an under play.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +122 (1 unit)

 

 

Counter Logic Gaming -165 vs Dignitas +125

 (this is currently off the board in a lot of places, I’ll use the most recent info)

Kill Total: ???

Kill Spread: ???

Team Kill Totals: ???

Time Total: OTB

 

This line was CLG -135 earlier this week but is now off the board amidst roster speculation. Above is the most recent line I could find (as of last night). I liked CLG a little bit as they seem to be the “best of the rest” and gatekeepers to the top teams because they’re at least consistent albeit unimpressive. That said… favorites in the bottom half rule applies here. Dignitas haven’t been that bad since moving to this new roster. Given the inflation toward CLG I actually like a play on Dignitas now at +125 or better.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Dignitas +125 (1 unit)

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