Friday, July 10th Recap
OMG vs BiliBili (Net: -2.03 units)
BiliBili ran over the early game in game one before stalling out and struggling to close in very characteristic fashion. Game two OMG found a way to win off the back of Smlz despite Icon’s best efforts to lose failing to activate Zhonya’s or his ultimate on Ekko multiple times resulting in needless deaths. Game three was very close with both teams staying within 1000g of one another before BiliBili was able to blow open a big fight in the mid game off the back of a nasty Shockwave from FoFo.
Ultimately this series didn’t change my opinion too much on either of these teams. It was weird seeing Icon struggle so much and then performing well the next game. He’s always been a little bit of a hot and cold player but not to this degree. We missed just barely missed totals in this tilt despite the games going long.
Invictus vs eStar (Net: -0.65 units)
The first two games of this series were snowballs one way or the other but game three was an absolute circus with a lot of weird circumstances and flukey plays. Wink stole a baron with an Iceborn Gauntlet proc (this is so Ning…), two pseudo base races that were called off, and late game Kassadin losing. This was a weird one but the game winning fight was masterfully played by Invictus. Looking at these team comps it’s difficult to believe eStar could lose a late game fight or at least struggle to kill an immobile carry like Aphelios but IG protected and moved as a unit very well.
In a weird way this doesn’t change my opinion on either team. It’s good to see eStar not quitting on the season although at this point, at 2-8 and losing the past six in a row, it wouldn’t surprise me to see some fatigue/frustration setting in. This might be the best 2-8 team I’ve seen in the history of professional League of Legends.
LPL Total: -2.68 units
Dynamics vs Gen.G (Net: +1.8055 units)
Gen.G are good.
KT Rolster vs SANDBOX (Net: -4.65 units)
Sandbox get away with yet another one. I wrote a lot about this series on Twitter. I don’t want to be a buzzkill over Sandbox’s recent success but the fact of the matter is that it’s been more a product of poor play from their opponents than significant “outplaying” on their part. Are they improved? Absolutely. They look much better. Are they a good team? I’m not really sure.
Game three of this series was more or less in the bag. KT just had to take the steps to close this game out as Sandbox handed them the exact kind of draft KT wanted with their sub situation. They got ahead, it was basically over and KT just got picked over and over in a series of sloppy plays that you don’t typically see from a veteran team. They got lazy. Sandbox had one way back into this game, KT refused to recognize this and play around it and just handed it to them. Sandbox get credit to taking advantage but again they’re not engineering winning situations to accurately reflect their record. Their game one draft an execution was excellent though.
LCK Total: -2.8445 units
Dignitas vs Immortals (Net: +1.59 units)
Thought we’d see a win, didn’t expect we’d see that kind of domination.
100 Thieves vs FlyQuest (Net: -1.11 units)
FlyQuest had this one in the bag. They had stabalized against the early game poke comp from 100 Thieves. When you’re in this position as the winning team one of the most important things that has to constantly be on your mind is what the other team is going to do to get back into the game. Typically in a game like this where their composition isn’t designed to immediately start fights the only way for them to make a play is to essentially throw a hail mary teleport play. 100 Thieves did just that, Ssumday managed to chunk out 4 people on Jayce and they managed to snowball it into a baron and more.
This is now two uncharacteristic macro punts by FlyQuest in the last couple of weeks. I don’t think it’s necessarily a downgrade situation because this team is still doing just about everything else right but it is pretty frustrating.
LCS Total: +0.48 units
Daily Total Net: -5.0445 units
Rough one but we’ve got a GREAT slate tomorrow in the East with a few feature matches one at 4am Eastern and another at 7am Eastern. LET’S GO!
LPL Summer 2020
Week 6 – Day 6
Dominus Esports -114 (-1.5 maps @ +244, +1.5 @ -345) vs
Rogue Warriors -112 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +254)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -119 / +0.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +105 / under -137)
DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui
RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
Neither of these teams have been favorites more than once
Dominus are 10-11 against the kill spread overall this season
Rogue Warriors are 10-9 against the kill spread this season
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 14 out of 19 RW games
Kill Totals have gone OVER in 10 out of 21 DMO games
Wuming doesn’t really move the needle too much one way or the other but the typical carousel is probably not helping RW develop any kind of momentum.
Each of these teams has taken a few games here and there of late against a mixed bag of teams. Overall I think Dominus have looked like the slightly better team because at least they can bring a lead home when they get it while Rogue Warriors have thrown about half a dozen games this season. Now you could look at that a few different ways. First, the fact that RW had leads suggests that they’re due for positive regression, especially in a season where early game has correlated to victory more than years past. Second, you could say that they simply can’t be trusted with a lead. Third, maybe a little bit of both.
Dominus have looked like a better team to me overall. That’s not to say they’re a good team but this lineup has shown some good signs of late. My economy/objective model gives the edge to Dominus as well although jeez are both of these teams bad. RW are one of the worst gold differential teams in all four major leagues and their only above average metric is herald control rate. Dominus are at least close to average in a lot of measures specifically ones that seem important like gold differential at 15 mins.
Historically I’ve liked taking the double -1.5 or the under 2.5 maps in these “Toilet Bowl” spots given that whichever team shows up better on the day typically just rolls over the other and then we have this weird psychological crowning of the “worst” team as “who could possibly get dominated by the other terrible team” ceremony. Rogue Warriors were one of my favorite underdogs last season but they’ve just been terrible this season other than a few decent openers. Give me Dominus here.
Odds Weighted: 27.21
Underdog Win: 26.27
“G” Projected Total: 27.21 kills
I absolutely love these kinds of spots. As I discussed above, typically when the two bad teams meet, especially when they have high CKPM numbers, the total is super inflated. More often than not these games end up lopsided towards whoever just shows up better on the day. They aren’t the slugfests people think they are. Obviously the model is going to suggest an over but I’m going the other way. This total is REALLY high.
DMO game times: 30.68 / 33.12 / 29.93 (average / in wins / in losses)
RW game times: 32.73 / 36.76 / 31.98 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.71 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.94 minutes
Line is just about right. I’d even lean under. Pass.
First Blood: DMO 57.14% / RW 57.89%
First Tower: DMO 42.85% / RW 42.1%
First Dragon: DMO 38.1% / RW 42.11%
First Herald: DMO 42.85% / RW 52.63%
The obvious one here is RW first herald but given the vig on it there’s not much value. Everything else is similar. Pass.
Moneyline: Dominus -114 (1.14 units)
Spread: Dominus -1.5 maps @ +244 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
TOP Esports -270 (-1.5 maps @ +133) vs
FunPlus Phoenix +201 (+1.5 maps @ -172, -1.5 @ +474)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -115 / +5.5 @ -114
Time Total: 33:00 (over +118 / under -154)
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
FPX have not been underdogs in 2020
TOP Esports are 7-0 outright, 5-2 against the map spread
TOP are 8-8 against the kill spread
FunPlus haven’t been underdogs until now and TOP are perhaps the only team deserving of that respect. Just to give you an idea of how dominant a season TOP are having. They rank in the 95th percentile in all but one category my model measures, and in the 98th+ in more than half of them. They’re often two orders of magnitude better than their opponents. They are, for all intents and purposes, the best team on earth by a fair amount right now. That’s not to say they’re perfect, their hubris will probably get the best of them at some point this season but some context is required when dealing with these truly elite teams.
FPX were looking to be getting back in form before a tough loss to Vici who grade out significantly better than their record but also faced a relatively easy schedule to open the season which made me skeptical to back them in that spot. FunPlus are still an excellent team and they looked solid in that series which contained great showings by both teams.
If there is going to be a team that beats TOP besides themselves this season I think FPX are the best equipped for it. Does that mean we should automatically back them? No. The model actually thinks there’s still value in TOP. The number has also moved from -234/+188 to this current number. I’m going to take a half stake underdog special on FPX here in what is a bit of a gut handicap. FPX are still an extremely good team and they’re much smarter than some of the foes TOP have nearly dropped games to this season (LGD, RW). Other than the mid lane this feels more evenly matched in the outer lanes and jungle to me than I think most people think. This might be TOP’s only loss of the season but I think FPX can get it done more often than this line implies. How often do you get a team of FPX’s caliber as a +200 dog?
Underdog Win: 25.56
“G” Projected Total: 26.65 kills
Line is right on the money. I could also see these games playing out as high kill blood baths OR more disciplined looking games so it’s tough to get a read. I believe there will be early action and a slow down but both of these teams fight so well that it’s not unreasonable to think team fights could happen with one or two people dropping.
TOP game times: 31.13 / 33.86 / 34.42 (average / in wins / in losses)
FPX game times: 30.57 / 30.46 / 30.74 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 30.85 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.34 minutes
I tend to like unders in these spots but I think this line is just about right juiced heavily to the under.
First Blood: TOP 56.25% / FPX 63.64%
First Tower: TOP 62.5% / FPX 45.45%
First Dragon: TOP 68.75% / FPX 54.55%
First Herald: TOP 68.75% / FPX 45.45%
These markets are all fairly tight. TOP first herald has the most value and is the only one in range to bet.
Spread: FPX +1.5 maps @ -172 (0.86 units)
Moneyline: FPX +201 (0.25 units)
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +474 (0.1 units)
Prop: Map 1 TOP first herald @ -139 (1.39 units)
Prop: Map 2 TOP first herald @ -139 (1.39 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 4 – Day 4
DragonX -101 (+1.5 maps @ -345, -1.5 @ +252) vs
DAMWON Gaming -127 (-1.5 maps @ +251, +1.5 @ -345)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -118 / +0.5 @ -111 (weird but it’s because DRX opened faves)
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +113 / under -147)
This series opened DRX -136/DWG+112 and has nearly flip flopped after a DRX loss to KT Rolster and DWG dominated Afreeca who had started the season quite hot.
Obviously both of these teams are exceptionally good. DWG have had some utterly dominant stompings akin to C9 in the LCS or Invictus’ wins in the LPL. Five digit gold leads at 20, routinely 4k+ at 15. When they strike it’s often a knockout punch. They’ve been much more disciplined than they were in Spring and appear to be playing 2020 LOL FINALLY. While it’s mostly sunshine and roses, I’ll rain on their parade a bit as T1 jumped out to leads on them, one of them substantial, before punting both games back to DWG in their matchup.
The criticism for DragonX is their game-to-game consistency. Coincidentally it’s also something that I’ve criticized DWG for but it hasn’t manifested yet this season. DragonX have a weird game every so often where they either fall asleep at the wheel, go too far off the deep end in the draft, or just try to brute force a team comp into a style it isn’t set up to do. These are cause for concern but they frequently happen against weaker teams not the stronger ones and still, more often than not, DragonX are able to pull wins out with them.
I still think DragonX are a better team on any given day. DWG have had an unbelievable start but they also lost to Gen.G and I think DragonX and probably should have lost to T1 (at least a game). DragonX are more their size and they won’t be able to pick on them and disrespect them like they have these other teams. I like DragonX to win this one and we’ve got excellent CLV in this case as well. DWG’s numbers, as impressive as they are, are heavily inflated by lopsided stompings of much weaker teams. Their games against good teams have looked much different.
Odds Weighted: 22.86
Underdog Win: 19.95
“G” Projected Total: 24.21 kills
I’d expect DWG to get behind in these games and have to fight out of it as they have a propensity to do. DRX tend to win clean but it’s because most teams aren’t as aggressive as DWG. If you look to DWG’s games against Gen.G and T1, a few of which they were behind in, 4 out of 5 of these games went under the 21.5 total here. While the model suggests and over it seems that the good teams don’t want to play DWG’s LPL style, skill-check you game unless they have to. I’ll pass on this total, lean under.
DRX game times: 32.12 / 31.43 / 33.9 (average / in wins / in losses)
DWG game times: 28.52 / 28.45 / 28.97 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 30.32 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.71 minutes
Both of these teams snowball exceptionally well. 2 out of 3 went under in the Gen.G series and the T1 series likely should have been two unders if not for T1 blunders. I love the under in this spot.
First Blood: DRX 38.88% / DWG 40%
First Tower: DRX 53.33% / DWG 93.33%
First Dragon: DRX 80% / DWG 26.66%
First Herald: DRX 44.44% / DWG 73.33%
93% first tower is pretty ridiculous but it’s juiced accordingly. There’s actually some value in it according to the model but I’ll pass especially because I’d expect DRX to be ready for it.
DWG first herald is severely mispriced and likely a relic of the previous line where they were underdogs so I’ll be taking shots there at +119 with almost a 30% delta. Seems gucci!
**update, this was only mispriced for map one**
Moneyline: DRX -101 (1.01 units)
Spread: DRX -1.5 maps @ +252 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 DAMWON first herald @ +119 (1 unit)(map one only, wrong price)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -147 (1.47 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)
Afreeca Freecs -455 (-1.5 maps @ -118) vs
SeolHaeOne Prince +318 (+1.5 maps @ -109, -1.5 @ +715)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -111 / +6.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +111 / under -145)
Afreeca are 8-1 against the kill spread as favorites
SP are 3-11 against the kill spread as underdogs
If you’ve been following along, SeolHaeOne are likely my pick for the worst team in the LCK although Hanwha are really giving them a run for their money at this point. This team stole a lot of games last split because they were ahead of the curve on understanding what mattered in the metagame AND other teams were still figuring a lot of things out. They had metagame armor. Strip that away and they’re an out of shape gladiator up against some finely tuned killing machines. SeolHaeOne aren’t a dumb team but they just lack the tools to compete without the advantage they had last season to help them. They’re severely outmatched on an individual basis.
Afreeca should dominate here. They should have dominant advantages in the top, jungle, and bottom lanes and the mid lane, Afreeca’s weakest position, has actually been quite good under Fly this season. The gap in the top and bottom lanes is massive. That can’t be understated.
Odds Weighted: 21.52
Underdog Win: 24.112
“G” Projected Total: 22.34 kills
Afreeca could split push this out and I’d honestly expect that to be the case in this game. There’s no need for them to take any other risks unless they want to experiment with something. Afreeca have actually had a few outlier games this season (41, 37 kills) that are really pumping their averages up still. SP are in a similar position. This number is still about right. Pass but lean under.
AF game times: 33.02 / 34.11 / 31.61 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP game times: 29.73 / 32.55 / 29.08 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.38 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.71 minutes
Afreeca have been taking their time and have been thorough in their wins but this is yet another metric that has some noise from a few outliers (43.33, 37.4 mins). SP have been run over and I’d expect that to be the case here. I’ll be taking the under.
First Blood: AF 56.25% / SP 56.25%
First Tower: AF 40% / SP 13.33%
First Dragon: AF 33.33% / SP 60%
First Herald: AF 43.75% / SP 25%
Given the disparities here these are surprisingly well priced. Pass.
Moneyline: Afreeca -455 (4.55 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -118 (1.18 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -147 (1.47 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 5 – Day 2
Will be writing on this tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
Cloud 9 -385 vs Team Solo Mid +277
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -123 / +7.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
Cloud 9 are 3-5 against the kill spread this season
Kill totals are even at 4-4 to the over/under in C9 games this season with an average total of 21.88
TSM are 3-5 against the kill spread this season (seven times as favorites)
This is a bit of a test. This is as good a shot to fire as anything else the rest of the season if you think C9 are going to drop some games at some point.
If you look at the combined kills per minute of both of these teams (0.79 and 0.73) this total looks like a slam dunk over but that’s only if you assume this game goes remotely close to an average game time and if the game plays out the way these have for these teams. Cloud 9 have an average game time of 29:03, TSM 34:40. Taking the CKPM of both teams times 29 you get a shade over 22.
In games against “good” teams (FLY, EG, Liquid):
vs FlyQuest (W1): Total of 23.5. FLY covered the +8.5 kill spread, total went over
vs Evil Geniuses (W2): Total of 23.5. C9 covered the -7.5 kill spread and the total went under
vs Team Liquid (W3): Total of 20.5. C9 covered the -7.5 kill spread and the total went under
I’d lean to the over in this spot but I won’t be placing a wager on this one. C9 are very capable of winning without running the score up like we saw against Liquid (11-8) and EG (16-3).
I do like some of the TSM prop markets though. Both teams have had exceptional first herald and first tower rates this season which makes sense given the focus both teams have placed on these objectives over dragons. I’ll be taking both TSM first herald and first dragon at high plus odds in a sort of arbitrage situation. In most games there is a trade for these objectives. You also don’t typically see plus odds this high on these prop markets compared to this moneyline. These prop markets imply a significantly larger favorite.
Prop: TSM first herald @ +135 (1 unit)
Prop: TSM first dragon @ +152 (1 unit)
Golden Guardians +199 vs Evil Geniuses -263
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -115 / -6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
Evil Geniuses are 3-4 against the kill spread as favorites
Evil Geniuses have gone under their team kill total in 6 out of 7 opportunities as favorites
Golden Guardians are 1-3 straight up, 2-2 against the kill spread as underdogs
Josh brought up a great point on the podcast this week when discussing Evil Geniuses. They draft significantly differently when they feel they can win a series compared to when they’re the underdog. It’s almost as if they feel the need to alter who they are when playing against good teams compared to bad ones.
Golden Guardians haven’t been as good as I’ve expected them to be. I thought a team like this would be a good “punch up” underdog with their style but they’ve just been lackluster overall to me. They’re not bad and will likely challenge for a playoff spot (whatever that means) still but I’m much lower on them than I was after the first few weeks.
While EG haven’t been a great against the spread team this season whatsoever, I do think they’ll take care of business here. I’ll be playing the moneyline over the kill spread since EG have been playing very low kill total games and their awful against the spread record in those low total games makes a lot of sense.
Moneyline: EG -263 (2.63 units)
Team Liquid -256 vs Counter Logic Gaming +199
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -127 / +6.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
Team Liquid are 5-0 straight up but just 1-4 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.3)
CLG are 3-4 straight up and 5-2 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.79)
A lot of people might look at last weekends “sketchy” wins for Team Liquid as a cause for concern and that’s justifyable. There’s an equally large amount of people just brushing it off as “ehh they’ll be fine.” I think it’s a little of both. The fact that those games were won from bizarre situations like TL have found themselves in a few times this season speaks to their ability to adapt on the fly and improvise but also to their inability to avoid getting into the same detrimental situations. I’m not entirely sure Liquid will still end up the second best team like I thought they would. I also don’t want to overreact to a few poor performances that were still wins at the end of the day. In a post game interview they were far from satisfied about the results this weekend and I’d expect them to come out looking sharper this time.
CLG have been a pleasant surprise and much more in line with what many thought they’d be getting this calendar year with this squad. A competitive showing against TSM last weekend as another notch in the improvement belt. CLG are looking like a competitive underdog and that shows with their excellent 5-2 ATS record most of which were as “small” dogs.
Liquid’s average margin of victory this season is shorter than this spread, CLG’s average margin of defeat is greater than this spread. I wouldn’t rule out an outright win here either. Liquid are probably better than their performance last week but their game still shows holes and teams can jump out to leads on them. I’d expect this to be a low scoring slugfest and I like the underdog spread in that situation.
Kill Spread: CLG +6.5 kills @ -103 (0.78 units)
Moneyline: CLG +199 (0.25 units)
FlyQuest -500 vs Team Dignitas +340
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
Dignitas are 1-8 straight up but 5-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.39)
FlyQuest are 3-2 straight up and 1-4 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.9)
Kill totals have gone over in 8 out of 9 FlyQuest games and 4 out of 9 Dignitas games this season
FlyQuest have made two game-losing macro mistakes in the past two weeks which is very uncharacteristic for them. They looked to be in full control against 100 Thieves yesterday before a bizarre punt. Dignitas won their match in decisive fashion picking up their first win of the season.
There is often overreaction in these types of spots. I think FlyQuest will be fine. You don’t just forget or “lose it” with good fundamental play like they have. It’s pretty easy if you’re just thinking about it. I’d expect after wakeup calls like these that they’ll be more aware of it. Other than these mistakes FlyQuest have been playing brilliantly and their approach to the game is excellent in this league. I’d expect them to get back to their winning ways here.
Dignitas looked good yesterday but terrible in the first outings with the new squad. I anticipated that they couldn’t be as bad as they looked and still believe that to be the case but I’m also fairly positive that they aren’t as good as we saw yesterday. Keep in mind, Immortals Academy, while impressive thusfar, are still an academy team.
This is a tough one to handicap. FlyQuest games have gone over at an insane clip but they’ve also been fairly low totals (average 22.39). They’ve also been poor against the spread as favorites despite the totals going over frequently.
Given the results of the past few games for FlyQuest I’d expect them to take a very reserved approach to this match, especially given that Dignitas have shown they want to be the aggressor with their new roster. FlyQuest thrive in these kinds of situations. Always being the proverbial adult in the room. I’d also expect Dignitas to throw themselves repeatedly at FlyQuest as they try to get this game over early. I’ll be taking the Dignitas kill spread. This total could easily go over but I could also see this being a clinical close if Dignitas aren’t able to get a lot done early so the total has a wide range of outcomes.
Kill Spread: Dignitas +8.5 kills @ -115 (1.15 units)