Friday, August 7th Recap

 

Suning vs Vici Gaming  (Net: +1.975 units)

Suning got away with one here. Below are their gold differentials at 10, 15, and 20 in this series.

They also only took 6 of the 15 dragons in this series. You could say that the scaling was on the side of them (it definitely was in the Kassadin game, which I called on the Discord yesterday by the way) and they got paid off for it in this series but it was more errors by Vici than anything specific that Suning did. The model appropriately downgraded them after winning this series. They get credit for making it work and figuring things out but against better teams you’re not going to be able to get away with a series like this.

JDG vs OMG (Net: +2.795 units)

OMG put up a fight and cashed on a few props for us but JDG were just a little too much for them to handle.

LPL Total: +4.77 units

 

Afreeca vs Dynamics  (Net: -0.35 units)

This series ended up being a bit of a sloppy bar fight and it was actually pretty fun to watch. Kiin and Rich in particular seemed to really just be gunning for each other. I love that kind of rivalry and perhaps this is the beginnings of one. While Afreeca have been dominating the bottom half teams, they’re not a particularly impressive team overall grading out as “below average” although primarily because the top four are so lopsidedly better than the rest of the table. Still these four middle of the table teams in the LCK are pretty even. Speaking of that…

KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life (Net: -1.37 units)

August CuVee…. How does he do it every single year… it’s too funny.

KT eventually took care of business in this one but not before Cuvee was able to ruin parlays. The Smeb/UCal version of KT looked just as sharp and if Smeb can show the form he did in the second two games in this series on Lucian with Lucian buffs coming on 10.16 then look out.

LCK Total: -1.72 units

 

Vitality vs Rogue  (Net: -1.62 units)

Origen vs Excel (Net: no wagers)

Fnatic vs Schalke  (Net: -1.65 units)

Misfits vs MAD Lions  (Net: +1.82 units)

G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.19 units)

 

LEC Total: -2.64 units

 

Dignitas vs Cloud 9 (Net: ?? units)

Golden Guardians vs TSM  (Net: ?? units)

 

LCS Total: ?? units

 

Parlays: -1.0 units

 

Daily Total Net: ?? units

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 10 – Day 6

 

LNG Esports -217 (-1.5 maps @ +152) vs

Dominus Esports +167 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +360)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +121 / under -161)

Starting Lineups:

LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Iwandy

DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui

Trends:

LNG are 0-2 straight up, 0-2 against the map spread as favorites

They were swept in both series by OMG and BLG

DMO are 1-12 straight up, 4-9 against the map spread as underdogs

DMO are 16-13 against the kill spread as underdogs, 6-4 in their past 10 games

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 16 out of 29 games where Dominus were underdogs

 

The Toilet Bowl!

For the majority of the season these were the two worst teams in the league and in the model. With a few solid performances of late, LNG have moved up the rankings but Dominus still sit dead last with only SeolHaeOne grading worse than them in both eastern leagues combined.

I’m going to take a shot on Dominus here for a few reasons.

First, they actually play pretty aggressively and aren’t afraid to bring the fight to you, something LNG struggles with in general, although they’ve been better about it against their last three opponents. Generally I like underdogs that are willing to mix it up because they at least have a chance to manufacture a lead instead of relying on opponents to make mistakes.

Second, this line has moved from -179 to -217 and while the model thinks that’s deserved, I can’t sit here and tell you that LNG deserve to be favored by that much against literally anybody, and that includes SeolHaeOne in the LCK too.

Third, to Dominus, this is their Super Bowl. They’ve been eliminated from playoffs for awhile and probably marked this on their calendar as their winnable game. Expect them to exceed expectations at least a bit.

It’s a bit of a gut handicap, the model actually thinks LNG is a value even at -217 but I know that over the years in these toilet bowl scenarios the clear dog almost always over performs. This will almost definitely be a clown fiesta too, a game to target for fantasy purposes.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.97

Time-projected: 26.42

Odds-Weighted: 27.24

Underdog Win: 25.51

“G” Projected Total: 26.875 kills

The model says this is right on the money but I know how these finals games go. This could be a complete circus. Give me the over, numbers be damned.

 

LNG game times:  31.47 / 31.92 / 31.26 (average / in wins / in losses)

DMO game times: 32.45 / 32.89 / 32.36 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.96 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.12 minutes

Similarly I’d lean to the over here. I’m expecting this one to be a sloppy mess.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: LNG 44.12% / DMO 52.94%

First Tower: LNG 35.29% / DMO 38.24%

First Dragon: LNG 38.24% / DMO 47.06%

First Herald:  LNG 47.06% / DMO 41.18%

Dominus first dragon presents value as does first tower.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Dominus +1.5 maps @ -196  (1.96 units)

Moneyline: Dominus +167 (0.5 units)

Spread: Dominus -1.5 maps @ +360 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ +122 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ +136 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Dominus first dragon @ +101 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Dominus first dragon @ +101 (1 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

eStar +180 (+1.5 maps @ -167, -1.5 @ +408) vs

EDward Gaming -238 (-1.5 maps @ +130)

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -133 / -5.5 @ +103

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko

EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC

Trends:

EDG are 5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the map spread as favorites

EDG are 8-8 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 9 out of 16 games where EDG were favored

eStar are 0-10 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as underdogs

eStar are 10-15 against the kill spread as underdogs

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 13 out of 25 games where eStar were underdogs

 

EDG smacked V5 in the mouth the other day despite being eliminated from playoff contention the day before. They’re actually on a six game winning streak and have won four of their past five series dropping only to FunPlus 1-2 in that time. This is more the EDG we were seeing for most of the calendar year before the weird funk we saw in the middle of this season that ended up costing them a playoff spot. The model still grades EDG as a playoff team ranking them, rather appropriately meme-y, as the 6th place team which is where they frequently place over the past few years.

eStar just can’t seem to put it together. I actually feel bad for this team at this point. Even after dropping all but three series over the course of the season and having just a 34% game win rate, eStar STILL grade out as better than eight other teams in early game economy and better than seven teams in overall objective rating. Some of the names on that list of teams they’ve outperformed in that early game economy list despite a losing record might surprise you (FPX, WE, BiliBili, RW, LGD to name a few). Just for posterity’s sake here’s who they’re better than in the objective rating as well (FPX, OMG, RNG, LNG, BLG, RW, DMO). See why I’m bearish on FunPlus? Anyway….

These end of season matches, as we’ve seen over the past week, can get a little weird. You never really know who is motivated, who isn’t, and most importantly whether that even matters or not. The vast majority of teams and players are professionals, they’re playing for future contracts and every game is a tryout for a new team or personal records, etc. In week ten we’ve seen just six out of ten favorites win outright and only three favorites cover the map spread. There have been three underdog 2-0 sweeps (only 16 others the other 9 weeks).

eStar actually looked better last match with the original lineup back intact. Even though they lost, they had a very good chance of actually beating TOP Esports in game three. This should be a competitive series and I’ll be taking a shot on the underdogs. The model suggests small value on EDG but I’m going to go against it and stick with my intuition here. eStar will snowball one of these games at least.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.36

Time-projected: 26.43

Odds-Weighted: 26.42

Underdog Win: 24.91

“G” Projected Total: 26.07 kills

This series also has the potential to be an absolute bonanza. These two have been involved in a few ridiculous games this season and while it hasn’t been the norm I think we’ll see a little bit of loosey-goosey game play in the final match for both. Lots of players trying to make flashy plays. I like the over.

 

EDG game times: 34.25 / 35.55 / 32.96 (average / in wins / in losses)

EST game times: 32.07 / 31.53 / 32.39 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.16 minutes

Odds Weighted: 33.39 minutes

These could get out of hand. I could see fast snowballed games or longer back-and-forth here. I’ll pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: EDG 58.33% / EST 62.86%

First Tower: EDG 50% / EST 68.57%

First Dragon: EDG 36.11% / EST 51.43%

First Herald: EDG 55.56% / EST 57.14%

There’s some value on eStar here but since most of these are juiced both ways I’m just going to pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)

Moneyline: eStar +180 (0.5 units)

Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +408 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

 

 

 

TOP Esports -345 (-1.5 maps @ -106) vs

Team WE +253 (+1.5 maps @ -120, -1.5 @ +557)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Starting Lineups:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

Trends:

TOP are 12-3 straight up, 9-6 against the map spread as favorites

TOP are 15-19 against the kill spread as favorites (3-8 in their past five matches)

WE are 3-3 straight up, 6-0 against the map spread as underdogs

WE are 11-6 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

Both teams could use a win here. TOP would  secure a top two seed (two byes) and WE could move up to 6th over LGD which would give them side selection in that series. This doesn’t always mean both teams will be giving it their all but we should assume that will be the case.

Looking at the trends and recent performance you’d think this is a slam dunk WE spot but I really think this team is severely overrated and exploitable by the good teams through multiple avenues. I have questions about TOP’s drafting but it seems like they’re moving in the right direction and figuring out that they probably can’t just surrender early game and get away with it like they’ve been doing all season.

Statistically this isn’t even remotely close. The model thinks this is a value on TOP and I happen to agree. This is a gross overreaction to recent performance. WE rely way too much on their opponents to make mistakes and haven’t been able to consistently engineer advantages for themselves. JackeyLove has been looking like his former self of late but I think even if TOP choose to go the scaling route again like they have been that they’ve still been solid enough in the early game to be more than half an order of magnitude better than WE.

Simply put, TOP aren’t the kind of team that WE beats. I put this bet in the other day in my look ahead article and will be taking the moneyline as well.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.71

Time-projected: 28.71

Odds-Weighted: 27.63

Underdog Win: 30.89

“G” Projected Total: 28.02 kills

Pretty clear over play here.

 

TOP game times: 32.03 / 33.07 / 33.58 (average / in wins / in losses)

WE game times: 33.29 / 31.73 / 32.84 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.66 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.87 minutes

Pass.

Other markets:

First Blood: TOP 50% / WE 45%

First Tower: TOP 52.94% / WE 57.5%

First Dragon: TOP 61.76% / WE 62.5%

First Herald: TOP 58.82% / WE 55%

There is some value in the WE props but I have a feeling TOP are going to dominate this series. I’m going to pass as not enough of them are big enough plus money relative to the moneyline odds.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -108 (1.08 units) (from Thursday)

Moneyline: TOP -345 (3.45 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (1.71 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (1.71 units)

 

 

 

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 3

 

 

DragonX -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -196) vs

SANDBOX Gaming +557 (+1.5 maps @ +152, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -122 / +8.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +119 / under -156)

Trends:

DragonX are 10-1 straight up, 6-5 against the map spread as favorites

DragonX are 13-14 against the kill spread as favorites

Underdogs have covered their team total in 13 out of 27 games against DragonX

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 16 out of 27 games where DragonX were favored

Sandbox are 2-7 straight up, 3-6 against the map spread as underdogs

Sandbox are 8-10 against the kill spread as underdogs

Sandbox have failed to cover their team total in their past two matches against DWG and T1

Sandbox covered the kill spread in all three games of the first meeting between these two (2-1 loss)

 

DragonX are now tied for first thanks to the run DAMWON has put together but trail in game differential. They have a two match lead on Gen.G with two matches remaining on their schedule. A win here wouldn’t lock it up but would go a long way toward securing a top two seed for DragonX for the playoffs (remember, the LCK uses a gauntlet system). Sandbox are still alive in the hunt for the fifth and final playoff position but they are going to need to win three or perhaps all of their remaining games to have a shot as they trail Afreeca by two games and have KT Rolster tied with them.

Sandbox have really struggled with the good teams and while DragonX sometimes lose games to themselves it’s tough to imagine a scenario where they don’t completely dominate Sandbox here. T1 have looked solid recently but DragonX have been a better team this season. Each match is different but T1 put an absolute beatdown on Sandbox in their last match. I’d imagine DragonX do the same.

That said, this number is a little too big. I don’t really think Sandbox have a shot so I’m going to pass on a side but I will be including the DragonX map spread in parlays.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.37

Time-projected: 25.48

Odds-Weighted: 21.71

Underdog Win: 24.35

“G” Projected Total: 23.84 kills

I could see DragonX running the score up and like the over but only for a half stake.

DRX game times: 31.9 / 31.79 / 32.17 (average / in wins / in losses)

SB game times: 31.76 / 32.68 / 31.13 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.83 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.6 minutes

Pass, lean under.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: DRX 48.57% / SB 40.63%

First Tower: DRX 42.86% / SB 53.13%

First Dragon: DRX 45.71% / SB 50%

First Herald:  DRX 37.14% / SB 46.88%

There is some value to be had in some of the Sandbox props given the large moneyline. I like a first tower and first dragon play here as they present the best on the board.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -108 (0.54 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -108 (0.54 units)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first tower @ +136 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Sandbox first tower @ +137 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first dragon @ +107 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Sandbox first dragon @ +107 (0.5 units)

 

 

 

SeolHaeOne Prince +1104 (+1.5 maps @ +360, -1.5 @ +1600) vs

DAMWON Gaming -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -526)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +12.5 @ -122 / -12.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +225 / under -312)

Trends:

DAMWON are 11-1 straight up, 10-2 against the map spread as favorites

DAMWON are 21-5 against the kill spread as favorites

SeolHaeOne are 1-12 straight up, 4-9 against the map spread as underdogs

SeolHaeOne are 6-24 against the kill spread this season

 

Using the current model rankings in the Eastern leagues combined this is the best team against the worst team…. DAMWON are almost three orders of magnitude better than SeolHaeOne….yup checks out.

Not really much to say here. 12.5 is the biggest kill spread I’ve seen anywhere this season and I’ll be taking it. There’s a chance DAMWON use this to clown around but they could actually cement a top two seed with a win here which could put their game differential out of reach if DragonX were to tie them. Even if they have a little fun it’s tough to imagine this not being a complete and utter stomping.

Just some fun stats. If we take away their matches against the other top four teams (T1, Gen.G, DragonX), DAMWON have some hilarious numbers:

Gold Differential at 10 / 15 / 20: +1577 / +4280 / +7793

Just one single instance of a gold deficit measuring at 10, 15, 20 in 18 games

Gold percent rating (full): +7.54%

Gold Differential per minute: +553.8

Gold per minute: 2110

First Tower Rate: 100%

First Blood: 66.67%

Herald Control: 31 out of 36

Average Dragons taken (both teams) per game: 3.44

Dragon Control: 45 out of 62 dragons taken

Four games without a baron taken at all

Four games with a five figure (10,000+) gold differential at 20 minutes

Eight instances of a 4900 or more gold differential at 15 minutes

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.89

Time-projected: 25.76

Odds-Weighted: 21.5

Underdog Win: 22.04

“G” Projected Total: 23.78 kills

Over. Take the over. I don’t know how it’s going to happen but DWG might try to double this number…

 

DWG game times: 28.07 / 27.54 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)

SP game times: 30.59 / 33.46 / 30.13 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 29.33 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.54 minutes

I’m not sure if DWG are going to go for the speed run or the kill record in this game but it’s absolutely hilarious that you can get +225 on over 31 (a low total)…

 

Other markets:

First Blood: DWG 51.61% / SP 51.72%

First Tower: DWG 90.32% / SP 17.24%

First Dragon: DWG 41.94% / SP 51.72%

First Herald:  DWG 77.42% / SP 24.14%

There’s probably value in here somewhere but honestly I’m not messing with SeolHaeOne. First dragon at +176 is where I’d go if I had to pick.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 DWG -12.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units) (if you can get alt spreads go for them)

Kill Spread: Map 2 DWG -12.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units) 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)

 

(from Thursday)

Parlay (2): DragonX -1.5 maps vs Sandbox + DAMWON -1.5 maps vs SeolHaeOne @ -120 (2.4 units)

 

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 2

 

The theme of the day in Europe is not to overreact to what you saw yesterday or really this season. Anybody can beat anybody.

 

Team Vitality +119 vs Schalke  -152

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -120 / -4.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -108 / under -123)

 

Essentially a win-and-in for both teams. For Schalke they literally must win out. This comes down to whether or not you’re a believer in Schalke because otherwise, based on recent performance, these two teams are very similar. For me, it’s tough to ignore that Vitality just beat Rogue (a little lucky) and MAD Lions back-to-back. This line was also +105 / -135 earlier in the week so we’ve had a lot of line movement come in. Skeanz is the kind of jungler that can match Gilius’ early aggression and is just as gifted on Lee Sin meaning that it might not have to be a ban for Vitality like it is for some other teams facing Schalke.

Hate to be the buzzkill but I think Vitality is the play here. We’re getting line value compared to earlier in the week, both looked great last week, both looked great yesterday. People are just hyped up on Schalke. Coin flip match, take the dog that’s gained value.

I’d also lean to the over here given these two teams tendencies but I also think they might be a little tight due to the high pressure situation and so many younger players in the game. I’ll pass.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Vitality +0.5 units @ +125 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Vitality +119 (0.5 units)

 

 

Origen -120 vs SK Gaming -106

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -110 / +0.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -116 / under -116)

 

Origen had that game in the bag yesterday and botched it through some terrible positioning in the late game team fights. For most teams, frustration would have to be setting in and probably has been already but with this crew of veterans I think they understand that you need to put that aside in a final weekend like this. It’s been do-or-die for Origen but remains so in this spot and now they’d need a lot of help to get into playoffs. SK Gaming haven’t technically secured a playoff spot either and they need this win as well.

As we’ve talked about before, sports books put a ton of weight on preseason expectations in their ratings which is why Origen are favorites here. I don’t think anybody in their right mind, including the most hardcore Origen supporter, would look at this line and think it’s correct. That said, I’m not ruling out Origen whatsoever. For as bad as they’ve been, Origen are still doing a lot of things right and SK Gaming’s moderatley negative gold differential at 15 minutes as well as a few errant losses to mid and bottom of the table teams doesn’t make them particularly trustworthy if you ask me.

I’ll be staying away from this one unless somebody becomes a plus odds underdog then I’d take them. I think SK Gaming are good but just a tad fraudulent as they’ve had a few somewhat lucky wins. Don’t rule out Origen.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 

Fnatic -185 vs Excel +143

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

 

Similar situation to the previous match. People are ready to call the old giants Fnatic and Origen dead but more so than Origen, Fnatic have done a lot of things right this season. They’re not a completely garbage team just because they aren’t what they’ve been in the past. The LEC does not have any truly terrible teams and as we’ve seen, anybody is capable of beating anybody.

The value is for sure on Excel here especially if you look at the numbers but I can’t help but think Fnatic find a way to get this one done. I won’t be on a side in this one but I do like the under. Averaging these two teams’ combined kills per minute and the implied game time gives us around 22.5. Also, given the high pressure of the situation I think teams will be a little tense/tight and I’d lean toward the under.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 

Misfits +246 vs G2 Esports -333

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -122 / -7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -124)

I absolutely loved this G2 draft yesterday. The Cho’gath pick is one that we’ve seen a bit but that I think is severely underrated in the righ circumstances. SK Gaming didn’t do themselves any favors with a weird Fiddlesticks selection that didn’t quite fit with what they were trying to do but G2, while far from flawless, looked like the old G2 yet again.

Misfits aren’t eliminated but got utterly destroyed by MAD yesterday and have won just one of their past seven matches.

Again, anything can happen and G2 is ALWAYS overpriced but I do think they’ll destroy Misfits here now that they’ve figured things out and hit their stride. I also like the over.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: G2 -7.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

 

 

MAD Lions -141 vs Rogue +110

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -111 / +4.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +112 / under -149)

 

This feels like a bit of an overreaction to yesterday’s games to me. I already liked Rogue before their weird loss to Vitality off of a baron steal. We opened the day with two games punted on a 50/50 baron steal yesterday mind you. It’s hard not to love this MAD Lions team and they’re pretty good to boot but I think Rogue are being disrespected a little here. I would have taken either of these teams at +110. Rogue have been the best early game team in the league by a fairly wide margin and I’d rather have the team with a lead than not most of the time. Really this is two evenly matched teams and I’ll simply take the plus money.

I’d lean to the over on the kill total and I’ll be taking a small position on the over game time as I think this could turn into a slug fest and we’re getting plus money on the over.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Rogue +0.5 @ +127 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Rogue +110 (0.5 units)

Time Total: OVER 33:00 @ +112 (0.5 units)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 9 – Day 2

 

 

Team Liquid -526 vs Immortals +354

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 5.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135 / under +102)

Trends:

Liquid are 11-1 straight up, 5-7 against the kill spread as favorites

Immortals are 4-10 straight up, 7-7 against the kill spread as underdogs

Favorites have covered their team total in 9 out of 14 appearances against Immortals

 

The honeymoon has ended for Immortals and we’re seeing that this is legitimately an academy team with one standout player (Insanity). Liquid could move one step closer to locking the #1 seed with a win here. They’ve been very fundamentally sound and while it hasn’t exactly been the most exciting, Liquid are playing excellent LOL.

Liquid haven’t been a good against the spread team. Much like T1 they aren’t really afraid to play ugly games if it’s the most likely to win meaning they’re completely fine if it’s a 9-4 win. They’ve been a classic “low total, high spread” take the value kind of team. Immortals can still make playoffs with two wins and two CLG losses or force a tiebreaker with two wins and one win from CLG. They’ll be up for this game but they haven’t exactly been a team to break out weird picks besides the mid Karthus (Insanity used to be the best Karthus in NA ladder history, I’ve spoken to him about it, I’m a Karthus main… sorry lol).

There’s a reasonable case for either kill spread here. I normally like underdog spreads with low totals AND against Liquid. The last time these two met Liquid won 13-9 against an Immortals ocean soul but I also think Liquid have been improving and Immortals have regressed. That was one of the first weeks with the new roster, there wasn’t a lot of film.

I think Liquid roll here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Liquid -8.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

 

 

Golden Guardians -132 vs Evil Geniuses +103

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -110 / +2.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -122 / under -108)

Trends:

Golden Guardians are 6-2 straight up, 4-4 against the map spread

Evil Geniuses are 1-4 straight up, 1-4 against the kill spread (same games) as underdogs

 

Golden Guardians dropped one to one of the best games by TSM all season long. They didn’t play poorly and still look to be in good form. Evil Geniuses are on their last legs right now. If it weren’t for the fact that there are eight playoff teams the tilt might be setting in.

I’ve talked a lot about how I don’t trust the bottom half of the table as favorites in the LCS because everyone is so inconsistent but Golden Guardians have looked the best they have all year in the past few weeks and the opposite is true for EG. I typically like this as a buy low/sell high type play as people tend to overrate how good and bad teams are when streaking but EG legitimately look lost right now.

Give me the favorites.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Golden Guardians -132 (0.66 units)

Kill Spread: Golden Guardians -4.5 kills @ +111 (0.5 units)

 

 

FlyQuest -357 vs Counter Logic Gaming +260

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -130 / under -102)

Trends:

FlyQuest are 6-3 straight up, 3-6 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 6 out of 9 games where FlyQuest were favorites

CLG are 4-9 straight up, 7-6 against the kill spread as underdogs

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 9 out of 13 games where CLG were underdogs

CLG could keep their playoff hopes alive with a win here and end up in a worst case tiebreaker scenario with Immortals but FlyQuest could lock a winners bracket seed with just one win this weekend. Looking the numbers and recent form this number is actually accurate. FlyQuest are back to their old ways of smashing the bad teams and sometimes beating the good teams. They look like they did at the end of Spring when they made a deep playoff run. FlyQuest are pretty good and well-suited to play in the LCS where they can feast on the mistakes of these bottom half teams.

I expect FlyQuest to roll here and I like the over quite a bit as well. FlyQuest haven’t been opposed to brawling and tend to run higher scores in wins.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest -6.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

 

 

100 Thieves -226 vs Dignitas +165

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -106 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -116 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -128 / under -103)

Trends:

100T are 4-1 straight up, 4-1 against the kill spread (same games) as favorites this season

Dignitas are 4-11 straight up, 10-5 against the kill spread as underdogs this split

Since week 4 (this roster) Dignitas are 4-6 straight up, 8-2 against the kill spread as underdogs

Favorites have only covered their team total in 2 out of 10 games against Dignitas since week 4 (0 of 8 in past 8)

 

Dignitas are such an enigma. Admittedly, Cloud 9 were never really in threat of losing that game yesterday and quite frankly looked pretty poor in the process. Dignitas didn’t look great either failing to get either of the first two dragons with their uptempo, four-drake win condition style of team. This team just finds ways to keep games close whether it’s by rolling over and dying or just being really chippy early on. Favorites have failed to cover the team total against them in their past eight attempts. That’s kind of insane.

100 Thieves could actually catch and pass Evil Geniuses, especially given their recent forms, so they’ll want this win. I also think they’re a much better team than Dignitas but I’ve talked extensively about it, I don’t trust favorites in the bottom half of the LCS. This line has actually moved toward 100 Thieves after opening around -196 or -200 depending on where you looked earlier in the week. I’m going to take a shot on Dignitas here. I don’t think they’re a better team but this line is too rich. Split kill spread and moneyline. I really want to take the under 12.5 for 100T too but they have one of the highest kills per win of any team in the LCS.

I want to take the under on the total but it’s difficult to tell which Dignitas shows up from game-to-game. If it’s the roll over and die version the under, if it’s the “had our coffee” version I like the over and alt overs. I’ll pass but just take a shot on the dogs to play spoiler here. Dardoch looked outstanding yesterday and I think he could almost singlehandedly carry a game like this. 100 Thieves are clearly the better team it’s just too big a number.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +5.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +165 (0.5 units)

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