Friday, August 21st Recap
Dynamics vs SeolHaeOne (Net: +5.0825 units)
SeolHaeOne had their Super Bowl in their last match and immediately turned back into a pumpkin. Not too much else to say on this one. Dynamics rolled.
SANDBOX vs Hanwha Life (Net: -8.59 units)
Oof… this one stings. I was thinking about this match afterwards this morning and it gave me an idea for a good offseason article for
LCK Total: -3.5075 units
SK Gaming vs Schalke (Net: -13.74 units)
Spoke a lot about this one on Twitter and Discord but the long and short of it is that this looked pretty clearly like nerves got the better of SK. Just really poor, unforced errors letting Schalke back into the game or to build leads multiple times. Zazee in particular had a really rough series. I was set up to more or less only lose this if Schalke 3-0’d which I didn’t see happening more or less ever… but it did. Just brutal.
At some point Schalke are going to have to prove it against a team that doesn’t beat themselves, and maybe they will. This team has a really good read on the meta right now and they’re just brute forcing with no real nuance. It’s actually great season ten league but I can’t imagine they keep having it this easy. I definitely think they’re good just not as good as they look and it’s going to be interesting to see how they match up against a team that makes them engineer their own advantages. Again, I don’t think they’re bad and I’m not hating, I’m just struggling to be impressed with half of these wins and you shouldn’t either. Hold them to a higher standard.
Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid (Net: -1.7 units)
Another brutal beat…. I personally thought GG should have won the second game with their comp but I can see the argument for ease of execution and it was close enough, whatever fine. The third game… unforgivable. How many times did Huhi pop unbreakable early with an Ornn on the other team because he got caught doing something dumb? FBI stepping up blind at mid tier one trying to punish a full health target with a minion wave in front of him… you’re not gonna land the root there and had to blow flash to escape … and then the next team fight two minutes later you step into a spot to get full combo’d by Ornn because your flash was down. The clumsiness is just infuriating. Just a terrible terrible day for that all around.
Liquid can’t feel good about this win. The first game was clinical and well played and I’ll give them credit for sticking to their game plan and identity but they easily could have lost both the second and third games here and they’ll need to do a lot of cleaning up if they want a shot at a title… then again maybe not, this is North America we’re talking about.
LCS Total: -1.7 units
Daily Total: -18.3875 units
I think this was my single worst day this year, or maybe it was second, I don’t know, regardless it was terrible. I had a similar situation betting map totals in playoffs last year and just being completely destroyed by them. It’s a high variance market because you can have a 3-0 in a close series and yet I continue to fire into these. I knew what I was getting into but the truth is I just don’t trust favorites in the LCS or the middle of the table in the LEC. I was positive we’d get no shutouts in these series. If anything I thought it’d be way more likely we get five games than three and not because I thought it would be close but because of the parity in the game, these regions, and that all of the favorites were extremely linear in a bad way. Can’t make this stuff up I guess. Erased a week of gains all at once but that’s part of the game.
LPL Summer 2020
Playoffs – Semifinals
TOP Esports -263 (-1.5 maps @ -111, -2.5 @ +286) vs
Suning Gaming +198 (+1.5 maps @ -115, +2.5 @ -400, -1.5 @ +405)
Total Maps: 4.5 (over +174 / under -227)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +111 / under -145)
You know, I’ve been a Suning backer for most of the season. The model likes them, I like them, and the public didn’t really like them until this last playoff series or maybe the final week of the season when everyone realized “oh wait, they’re actually getting a bye?” Hell they’ve even shown the ability to adapt and come back from a game one loss! This is a “series type of team” if I’ve ever seen one!… ok that was a little facetious. For real though, Suning are quite good. SofM and Bin are having MVP caliber seasons, as a matter of fact I think SofM is a reasonable argument for league MVP. He’s been as important to this team as Knight or Rookie.
TOP have become extremely stubborn in how they want to play the game but I also think the metagame is trending in a direction that favors their more mid game centric style as long as JackeyLove doesn’t become old JackeyLove like has in the past few series with critical errors at key moments.
Before I digress any further let’s dive in here. The model absolutely loves TOP here and keep in mind that it weighs fairly evenly in terms of trending (blend of short term and medium term) and season long numbers. Here’s the tale of the tape (not the film 😉 )
TOP Esports (second half of season):
Record: 13-8 (vs FPX, V5, Vici, Dominus, Invictus, Suning (2-0), RNG, eStar, WE)
Gold per Minute: 1832.3
CS differential per minute: +14.44
Gold Differential per Minute: +87.05
Gold Differential @ 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: -173.3 / -70.15 / +469
Dragon / Herald / Baron control%: 47.1% / 52.4% / 58.6%
Suning Gaming (second half):
Record: 14-9 (vs eStar, BiliBili, RNG, V5, OMG, TOP (0-2), Vici, FPX)
Gold per Minute: 1783.58
CS differential per minute: +0.4
Gold Differential per Minute: +73.76
Gold Differential @ 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: +183.6 / +164.61 / +870
Dragon / Herald / Baron control%: 50.4% / 56.52% / 71.42%
Suning actually performed at right about their season long average during the second half. They were a pretty steady team throughout the season through a variety of metagames and showed the ability to play well with a number of different strategies. Suning did have a very slightly easier schedule with one more “easy” match against Bilibili who was still struggling at the time. One note for Suning’s numbers; while their differentials average out to be mediocre, their 10, 15, and 20 minute gold differentials were VERY drastic on one side or the other with more than 70% of their games containing a major deficit or major lead at these marks. Suning played very few “close” games.
TOP drastically underperformed their first half numbers (as indicated by their season long vs these). There are a few reasons that I think this happened. Firstly, I think they got a little bit too comfortable in what they were doing and teams punished them for it. Secondly, JackeyLove lost them a handful of games on his own with huge mistakes at critical times. Third, they faced a fairly difficult second half of the schedule with only one “easy” match against Dominus (you can count eStar if you want to, I don’t despite their record). Similarly, TOP also played very few “close” games (see above).
The model loves TOP because their relatively poor second half numbers still exceed Suning’s except in objective control. While Suning have shown the ability to snowball games they prefer to play a more mid-game, objective centric style just like TOP do. Philosophically speaking these two teams want to play for mid game team fights but they’re both capable of making adjustments. I’d actually wager Suning might be slightly better in the uptempo department as TOP just seem insistent on not drafting to get early advantages and relying solely on their players.
Bin and SofM are, in my opinion, better than 369 and Karsa right now while Knight has the clear advantage in the mid lane. The bottom lane is highly volatile. SwordArt and JackeyLove have a ton of big game experience but they’re flanked by fairly young and inexperienced players for these big games. As much as I give JackeyLove crap for being overrated I do think he’s still the better player here although Huanfeng is not far behind him. SwordArt vs Yuyanjia is more interesting as Yuyanjia has improved more and more as the year has gone on and SwordArt, as usual, is more of a specialist. It’ll be interesting to see how the support pool plays into this series.
I think this is going to be a surprisingly competitive series to a lot of people. Suning are pretty good but I’m having a really hard time getting past the experience factor and the massive mid lane difference in this series even if I think Suning do have some slight edges on the top side of the map. Knight is going to be a problem. I’ll also mention that TOP get side selection which is massive in the LPL and given the current blue side power on this specific patch (we haven’t had one of these in awhile). They’ve also had the chance to watch a series from Suning while they’ve had a few weeks off to plan for this.
I wouldn’t rule out a Suning win by any means as I think Suning are significantly better than most people think but I do think there is value on TOP Esports here. I agree with the model on that front but there’s also the edge in experience, star power, the biggest lane mismatch in the series (Knight vs Angel), side selection, and the game trending in their direction all favor them.
Underdog Win: 27.67
“G” Projected Total: 27.82 kills
The projections suggest an over but based on the second half averages for each of these teams this number is spot on. I do think we’ll see lower kill games here. The LPL playoffs have typically been anywhere from 1.6-2.1 kills per game lower over the past six seasons but it’s still a pretty mixed bag. Similar to the games earlier in the LCK, LPL playoff matches, and really the LPL in general is usually far over or far under it’s just a matter of figuring out which. I’d think we see a slower game but also one with more trading and team fighting. I doubt either of these teams will bulldoze the other. That being the case, I’ll lean under but pass on a total here.
TOP game times: 32.03 / 32.67 / 33.87 (average / in wins / in losses)
SN game times: 33.11 / 32.32 / 34.27 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.57 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.35 minutes
Definitely taking the over here especially at plus money. Again, for similar reasons to the kill totals. I think these games will probably be more back and forth than not.
First Blood: TOP 48.65% / SN 42.86%
First Tower: TOP 54.05% / SN 52.38%
First Dragon: TOP 57.76% / SN 40.48%
First Herald: TOP 59.46% / SN 42.86%
These are priced fairly accurately but I am going to be taking the OVER 4.5 dragons on each map.
Moneyline: TOP -256 (3.84 units)
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -111 (1.11 units)
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ +131 (1 unit)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ +121 (1 unit)
Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ +119 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 OVER 4.5 total dragons @ -161 (1.61 units)
Prop: Map 2 OVER 4.5 total dragons @ -159 (1.59 units)
Prop: Map 3 OVER 4.5 total dragons @ -161 (1.61 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 10 – Day 3
Afreeca Freecs +391 (+1.5 maps @ +109, -1.5 @ +847) vs
Gen.G Esports -588 (-1.5 maps @ -139)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -111 / -7.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -101 / under -128)
With Afreeca clinching playoffs with a win over KT Rolster on Thursday, it’s hard to tell how they’re going to treat this game. The assumption would be that, with nothing to play for and no way to advance their position, that they’d maybe play very generic or intentionally misleading in this series considering Gen.G could be a potential first round opponent. Conversely, given their struggles against the elite teams this season, they could treat this like a playoff series and give it their all. As a matter of fact, if they did win this series 2-0 they could potentially knock Gen.G back to fourth place IF T1 were to find a way to 2-0 their final match against DragonX. This all sounds rather round-a-bout to me so I’ll just give my take.
Don’t overbuy narratives. It’s a mistake I usually avoid but have made in different ways in the past week. Especially in the LCK, teams are very professional and take everything seriously. I’d expect this to be a serious but strategically boring match from both teams with neither wanting to show any of their plans.
With that in mind, we should evaluate who the better “vanilla” team is. Gen.G have shown a number of different looks and strategies this season having success with all of them. They grade out as the second best team on earth in my combined LCK/LPL economy/objective model only behind DAMWON Gaming (duh). Afreeca have won just a single game against a top four team and it was all the way back on June 26th. The rest haven’t been particularly close either.
I expect Gen.G to roll here.
Underdog Win: 25.536
“G” Projected Total: 27.13 kills
This projects to be a very high total but I also think these teams are going try not to show anything in this series which could result in extreme highs OR extreme lows. Both of these teams are averaging over 24 combined kills per game. Afreeca are averagine 24.61 in losses, 24.09 in wins while Gen.G are averaging 25.59 in wins, but just 21.5 in losses. Gen.G have gone over 23.5 combined kills in about half 20 out of their 41 games this season and they’ve averaged over 30 kills per game in those instances. Afreeca have gone over 23.5 in just 14 out of 39 games but average 33.1 kills in those games.
As you can see there’s a pretty big range of outcomes with these two involved but ironically both games in the first meeting landed on 22 kills in fairly lopsided Gen.G stompings (18-4, 19-3). If you exclude the shellacking Gen.G handed to Hanwha Life, they’re only averaging 23.17 combined kills in the second half of the season. In fact, if you just remove Hanwha and SeolHaeOne from the equation for the entire season they only average 22.27 combined kills per game. Afreeca are averaging just over 25 if you do the same for them and 24.61 in losses as we mentioned.
This is a little weird but given the deltas between the two I’m going to play the under in game one and the over and alt overs in game two here. Gen.G have a 20.08 combined kills per game against non-HLE/SeolHaeOne teams this season and 24.23 in game twos against that same pool. Afreeca have a 22.38 in game ones and 25.92 in game twos against the same pool. Not only that, but I could definitely see Afreeca just trying something weird in game two if they get stomped in game one to maybe create some potential draft equity for playoffs.
GEG game times: 31.465 / 30.58 / 33.61 (average / in wins / in losses)
AF game times: 33.15 / 34.38 / 31.71 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.31 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.69 minutes
Under looks good but this is appropriately priced.
First Blood: GEG 60.975% / AF 56.41%
First Tower: GEG 70.73% / AF 46.15%
First Dragon: GEG 63.41% / AF 30.77%
First Herald: GEG 80.49% / AF 43.59%
There’s actually value on Gen.G first herald but for an objective that is frequently traded I don’t feel comfortable laying -200 especially when they’ve traded it and picked up just 6 of their past 11 first heralds. Afreeca first blood makes for a nice value play here at +119.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -139 (2.78 units)
Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first blood @ +119 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first blood @ +119 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ +118 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ +143 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ +171 (0.25 units)
KT Rolster +738 (+1.5 maps @ +200, -1.5 @ +1012) vs
DAMWON Gaming -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -263)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -122 / -11.5 @ -106
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 17.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +149 / under -196)
For whatever reason the first thing that came to mind when I thought about this series was the face Cory Henry makes in the video for “Lingus” by Snarky Puppy right before he plays one of the most ridiculous keyboard solos ever.
“Oh I am so sorry for what’s about to happen to you…. you don’t even know…”
(here’s the song by the way, it’s incredible, for those that don’t know I’m a big music nut, everything from metal to jazz to classical, etc and actually studied music)
So normally I’d think KT are a decent team that could maybe cover a spread here but with their season being ended in dramatic and depressing fashion on Thursday morning with a loss to Afreeca I’m not sure how “up” for this game they’ll be. Now, perhaps that’s a reason to pay attention to this series. Maybe KT let loose and we see some wild picks but with DAMWON needing the win to secure the #1 seed and a bye directly to finals, I’d imagine they’ll still be trying hard in this series. DAMWON have taken no prisoners all season long and I can’t imagine that would change in this match. They’re winning games by an average of 11.69 kills (11.14 in their past seven wins) and I’m sure would love to add one more great performance to a season that will go down in the record books as the most dominant statistical season in history in any of the major leagues.
I’m not sure if we’re really going to get a chance to talk about the season DAMWON has had but maybe I’ll do a full on post in the off-season because it’s been the most ridiculous performance I’ve ever seen and they’re doing it in a high-parity game environment.
A few tidbits:
In 37 games this season, DAMWON have had a gold lead of 3000 or more at the 15 minute mark in 16 games, 5000 or more in 8, and 8000 or more 3 times…. at 15 minutes. They have a raw EOG GPR of +5.21%, and a living GPR (measured over course of game, see Oracle’s Elixir) GPR of +2.3%… that’s absurd. That means they end the game with 55.21% of the games total gold ON AVERAGE… For comparison, TOP Esports have a +2.52% / +0.66%.
They still retain an 89.19% first tower rate failing to achieve it in just four games and a 72.97% first herald rate, which is correlated but still ridiculous.
Anyway…I actually do think there’s a chance we see something wild here and 11.5 is a crazy high number to cover but DAMWON should take care of business here. This isn’t a one trick pony. We’ve seen them as the best early game team in the world but they’re also excellent in scaling team fights as we saw against T1 in their last series. DAMWON look like the best team in the world right now and I wouldn’t be caught dead getting in their way right now. I think this is going to be a massacre.
Underdog Win: 24.99
“G” Projected Total: 26.18 kills
At 24.57 combined kills per game, DWG are definitely on the higher side of things but they’ve only eclipsed 23.5 kills in 18 of their 37 games. In those games they’ve often gone WAY over the total averaging almost 30 kills in those spots. DAMWON also only have four games that landed on 22 or 23. Either DAMWON are styling on you and just running up the score as they roll you over or they just win too quickly to do so. 15 of their games were 21 or less, 18 were 24 or more.
For KT Rolster 24 out of their 41 games have gone under 23.5 anthose games have an average combined kills of just 17.75. The other 17 have gone over with an average of 32.29. If you remove the two outlier games (53 vs SeolHaeOne and 45 vs Afreeca) that number is still 30.07. Four games have fallen on 23 or 25, none on 24. They’re 24.43 average in losses and 20 in game one losses (18.25 if you remove game one week one 34 kills combined vs TD). KT have also averaged just 22.47 CKPG in the second half if you exclude the same two outlier games but notably their totals in their past five 29, 53, 22, 35, and 45. No joke
DAMWON jump an extra 3 combined kills per game in game twos vs game ones, and KT jump more than four combined kills in game twos vs game ones.
The moral of the story is somewhat similar to that above. Under in game one, Over in game two.
Alternatively you could try to play the margins. It’s like an inverse middle. Either DAMWON are going to completely run over this series and we’ll get a nice low total in a route or it’s going to be a complete bloodbath. Essentially this creates a synthetic “not 23 or 24 @ -900” or “not 20-24 @ -275”. These types of series with teams like DAMWON are good for bets of that nature. I’ll be keeping it simpler here but you get the gist of it.
DWG game times: 28.14 / 27.72 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)
KT game times: 33.45 / 33.24 / 33.62 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 30.8 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.82 minutes
First Blood: DWG 54.05% / KT 51.22%
First Tower: DWG 89.19% / KT 51.22%
First Dragon: DWG 37.84% / KT 70.73%
First Herald: DWG 72.97% / KT 58.54%
As with most teams against DAMWON, value on first dragon. You could choose to play KT first blood here as well which I particularly like if Malrang is playing.
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -263 (2.63 units)
Prop: Map 1 KT first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 KT first dragon @ -102 (1.02 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +109 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 21.5 @ +138 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 20.5 @ +165 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ +121 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ +146 (0.5 units)
LEC Summer 2020
Playoffs – Winners’ Bracket Round One
G2 Esports -256 (-1.5 maps @ -119, -2.5 @ +274) vs
MAD Lions +194 (+1.5 maps @ -108, +2.5 @ -385, -1.5 @ +420)
Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -263 / under +199), 4.5 (over +184 / under -244)
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -120 / +4.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +140 / under -185)
UPDATE: This has since moved to -303 / +225
G2 seemingly flipped the light switch to “on” in a matter of weeks after struggling for a majority of the season. The tumultuous (and sad) off field issues, a changing metagame, and the rest of the league vastly improving were not enough to keep G2 out of a top three finish. Think about that… For all of the struggles and criticism everyone has lobbed at G2 this season (some of it deserved, some unwarranted), they STILL finished 11-7 and got it done. I’m extremely bullish on this team moving forward with elevated performances from Wunder and Jankos to compliment Caps, arguably the best player in the league. Perkz and Mikyx are going to need to step up a bit but given the trajectory and historical performance I’d expect them to elevate their level and regress to the normal.
MAD Lions finished 12-6 and are one of the more entertaining teams to watch from both the entertainment and strategic perspectives. They’re young, hungry, fearless, and willing to try anything. In many ways, MAD Lions are just like G2. They find creative solutions in and out of the game, are incredibly confident, sometimes to a fault, but above all else, they’re just really damn good.
This should be a fascinating series between two of the best teams Europe has to offer. Wunder should have the edge in top lane, especially given his current form and the direction the metagame is headed although Orome’s Gangplank and Mordekaiser could prove to be strong weakside options that are shared between the two. Shadow has a reasonable case for MVP but Jankos has returned to his old form recently so I’d call this a wash. Caps gets the edge in mid by a pretty big margin. That might be a bit controversial given Humanoid’s standout performance this split but Caps is the best player in Europe, has much more experience in high pressure situations, and is a more versatile player. The versatility might not come into play here but it’s certainly a strong tie breaker. The bottom lane I actually give to MAD Lions flat out although it wouldn’t surprise me to see an improved performance from Perkz and Mikyx.
G2 are peaking now and when that’s happening they’re one of, if not the best team in the world. If you look at the course of the full season there is definitely an argument to be made against them. Their win streak that propelled them to third place included one top team (Rogue). The rest were middle or bottom of the table. To me this is more about how they’ve looked than who they beat. G2 look like they’ve finally figured out how to play current League of Legends. They’re dedicating resources to the things that matter, something they weren’t doing before, and seem to have realized that you can’t play the way you used to and rely on outsmarting your opponents every game when it’s much more about brute force now. I actually think G2 have a ton of room to improve and while I think MAD Lions will improve over time as well (they’re young), I also think they’ve hit a bit of a plateu in their development but that by no means is a knock on whether or not they can win this match.
The value here is almost certainly MAD Lions. Looking at these teams on paper, the statistics, past performances between the two, and individual/stylistic matchups, MAD are more than capable of beating G2. In fact, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to call these teams equals… but it’s G2. You have to treat G2 as what you’ve seen since about week five or six. Before that they were extremely limited in practice time, Perkz and the team were obviously going through a lot with his father’s passing, and because of this they looked like they didn’t have a strong grasp on the game because they just didn’t at the time. These aren’t excuses for bad play they’re just facts.
Admittedly this is a bit of a gut handicap. I also got a good number when I originally posted this without the full writeup yesterday. G2 have showed they can handle Caitlyn and other strong meta picks unlike a lot of playoff teams we’ve seen. They have multiple solutions to things that pose problems to other teams even in the small sample size we’ve seen. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if MAD won this series but my money is almost always going to be with G2 if it’s remotely bettable in a best-of-five.
I’m also going to be taking the under and alternate unders in this series. 28.5 is extremely high and even though these teams have delivered as this projects to roughly this total, I think we’ll see a tighter, cleaner series out of these teams.
Moneyline: G2 -256 (3.84 units)
Spread: G2 -1.5 maps @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 28.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ +113 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 26.5 @ +134 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 28.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ +109 (0.34 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 26.5 @ +129 (0.33 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ +147 (0.33 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 28.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ +110 (0.34 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 26.5 @ +127 (0.33 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ +147 (0.33 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Playoffs – Winners’ Bracket Round Two
Evil Geniuses +354 (+1.5 maps @ +160, +2.5 @ -213, -1.5 @ +671) vs
Cloud 9 -526 (-1.5 maps @ -208, -2.5 @ +164)
Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -175 / under +137), 4.5 (over +245 / under -333)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -122 / -7.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
UPDATE: Line is up from -435 / +236 yesterday
While I think Evil Geniuses stepped up and performed much better than I expected them to in their last series against 100 Thieves, I think it’s pretty clear that, like a lot of teams, nerves got the better of the rookies. 100 Thieves played abhorrently in that series and while Evil Geniuses get credit for their own improvement, I don’t think it’s going too far to say that they didn’t exactly have to be that good to win this series. 100 Thieves kind of just beat themselves.
On the other side of this match is Cloud 9, coming off of a frustrating loss to FlyQuest in which Zven had probably the single worst series I’ve seen from him in his entire career. There were other issues, Blaber and Nisqy struggled to get things going against PowerOfEvil and Santorin as well. Cloud 9’s carries really let them down in this series. They were set up to succced too and I think easily could have one game three and definitely had game four in the bag before Zven just lost his mind and started overplaying. I’ll remind everyone that he essentially made back-to-back game losing plays (the first one was the real loser not the Shen face check which was a bit flukey), and then that hour long technical pause happened so he had to sit there and think about it. I’m not sure if he was just tilted off the face of the earth in game two or just overplaying or what but it was bad…
I think Cloud 9 are going to smash this series for a few different reasons.
First, there’s almost always an overreaction to a particularly bad performance. Don’t get me wrong, that was unforgivably bad but typically good players bounce back in the next series. We saw Doublelift do this exact thing last week after having one of his worst performances in his career also.
Second, Evil Geniuses mid+jungle duo of Svenskeren and Goldenglue are decent but a massive step down in overall quality compared to Santorin and PowerOfEvil. Blaber and Nisqy should be able to get themselves going in this series.
Third, Bang and Zeyzal looked good last series but haven’t exactly been the most punishing bottom lane during their time together. They frequently just try to get by until teamfighting begins and leave a lot of potential punishes on the table. While you can criticize WildTurtle for a lot of things, the one thing he does do well is make lane phase difficult for people. The FlyQuest bottom lane is the exact opposite of this one. This should allow Vulcan and Zven room to breath.
Fourth, Licorice was absolutely dumpstering in every game of the last series against Solo who has been a rock this season. Licorice very well might be the best player in North America right now. On the other side, this metagame fits Huni like a glove but it’s not like we’re in a situation where Licorice doesn’t play all the same things as well. Licorice should continue rolling.
To me, I just think Cloud 9’s top trio blows these games wide open. They should have an easier time of it in this series than they did against FlyQuest and similarly to that matchup, Cloud 9 just have more avenues to victory than Evil Geniuses do. With that in mind, this line is a rich and I missed the window of opportunity at a better price so I’ll be passing in this spot other than a parlay.
Parlay (2): Cloud 9 -1.5 maps + G2 ML @ +103 (1 unit)